Small swells for the weekend, more action next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th September)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell tomorrow with fresh N/NE tending NW winds
  • W/SW swell Sun with strong N tending N/NW, then NW winds
  • Building W/SW swell Mon with strong NW tendng W/SW winds, easing Tue with W/SW tending W/NW winds
  • Good SW groundswell Thu with N/NW winds


The surf held in a bit bigger than expected yesterday with sets to 2ft across Clifton, back to a tiny 1-1.5ft today.

This weekend and next week (Sep 18 - 24)

Small surf should continue tomorrow as an inconsistent W/SW groundswell fills in, generated in our far swell window last Sunday and Monday. Inconsistent 1-2ft sets are due along with fresh N/NE tending NW breeze.

Moving into Sunday, and a tricky mid-latitude low that was forecast to drift south-east across us, generating strong W/NW-W winds in our western swell window is now looking more favourable for swell production.

A fetch of W/SW gales will be generated in our swell window tomorrow, producing a fun 1-2ft wave on Sunday with strong N tending N/NW and then NW winds.

Behind this first low, a secondary strong low will fire up, projecting severe-gale W/SW winds through the edge of of our western swell window before pushing a bit too far north and towards South Australia.

As it moves further east it'll weaken and we'll see a fetch of strong S/SW winds drawn up behind it Monday afternoon and evening, bringing some additional S/SW windswell to the W/SW groundswell that's due Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.

Size wise, we should see Clifton building late Monday to 2-3ft, easing from 2-3ft Tuesday but with strong NW tending W/SW winds Monday, W/SW tending NW on Tuesday.

Wednesday morning should still be around 2ft or so with a NW offshore.

Moving into the end of the week and we've got a strong polar frontal progression and good, long-period SW groundswell pulses due Thursday/Friday.

Back to back fetches of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds should generate the swells, building late Wednesday but likely peaking Thursday to 4ft or so, easing slowly Friday. Conditions are looking great Thursday with a fresh N/NW tending NW breeze, possibly shifting onshore Friday. More on this Monday though, have a great weekend!


HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE Friday, 17 Sep 2021 at 1:44pm

Hey mate. What time would you expect the wind to go from NNE to NW tomorrow?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 17 Sep 2021 at 1:51pm

Around 8-8:30am it looks. So dawn session for the N/NE.

HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE Friday, 17 Sep 2021 at 2:09pm

Great. Thanks Craig . Hope you have a good weekend

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 17 Sep 2021 at 2:11pm

Cheers, will do!