James KC

One last pulse and then summer returns

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 22nd February)

Best Days: Thursday with 2-3ft E swell, best early with light variable winds. Tuesday, Wednesday as the low provides one last S pulse, winds not great but most swell for the week up around that 3-4ft mark for S swell magnets.

Recap: Well how about that for a weekend (long weekend, I hope you got out this morning as well) of waves. Some good conditions across the board. Solid 4-6ft waves out of the E meaning just about everywhere scored at some point. 

Outlook:

  • S/SE pulse of energy from low to fill in Tuesday/Wednesday. Winds not great but make the most of it as there won’t be much swell around later in the week. 
  • Little swell on Thursday from E trade swell setup, light winds early and hitting widespread 2-3ft.
  • Weak trade setup easing and just small waves, 1-2ft, into the weekend.
  • Long Range we have the chance of an inconsistent 3-4ft E swell from a distance tropical low, biggest for Sunshine Coast.

Start of the Week

Well I hope you are surfed out because the waves that we’ve had are not looking like occurring again anytime soon. 

Tomorrow will see a lot of the size dissipated with just 2-3ft of that E swell remaining. It’ll be worth getting out there with light variable winds early for most places. The Mid N Coast will be windier with S winds which will fill in as SE winds across the entire region as the day goes on. Not all that pleasant. 

There will be one final pulse of energy from that fast moving low though. This time from the S/SE, originating from the SW flank of the low. This energy will fill in along the Mid N Coast around the middle of the day, the afternoon for N NSW and early on Wednesday for SE QLD. It'll peak a bit over the head high mark, 3-4ft, but won't last all that long, just a quick spike and then beginning to ease. Nothing like last weeks continual 4-5ft with multiple pulses. 

On top of the quick up and down trend of the swell, it’ll also be accompanied by E/SE winds. The Gold Coast is probably looking to have the pick of the winds, staying light and variable early before the E/SE winds fill in preventing any decent conditions for locations that are picking up the S/SE swell. 

As is always the case with swells out of the S/SE for SE QLD, don’t expect a lot of size. Just expect local S swell magnets to see any of it with the points to remain small for this part of the week.

For N NSW and the Mid N Coast it’ll be better but E/SE winds will mean you’ll either have to put up with the wind at a S swell magnet or find protection from both the wind and swell in a southern corner. Not great but it's all we have to work with at this stage. 

The Back End of the Week

This S/SE pulse of energy will be gone by Thursday. In the wake of the low moving south and east, a ridge of high pressure setup out to sea, setting up a weak E trade swell setup. This will filter in a 2-3ft swell across the board for Thursday. 

With light variable winds early it’s shaping up to be one of the better days of the week. Later in the day winds will pick up out of the NE for NSW and SE for SE QLD. The E swell will begin to ease a fraction too so the morning is definitely the pick, don't wait around for more of it to show up. 

This E swell will ease to 1-2ft and continue into the weekend with not too much else to get excited about. As is normally the case, winds will be lighter earlier and swinging more onshore as the day goes on.

Next Week

Now this is long range and it involves a distant tropical low so take it on but don’t put too much weight on it. There are indications of a tropical low intensifying to the E of New Zealand which could direct an inconsistent E/SE swell. 

At this stage it’d be a slow 3-4ft at most and best for the Sunshine Coast because of the way New Zealand is blocking a lot of the energy. Something to keep in mind in an otherwise quiet looking outlook. 

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 6:32pm

Another early report! Awesome

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 6:44pm

Good luck getting this out of your head

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 6:45pm

Very short and sweet.

Serendipity60's picture
Serendipity60's picture
Serendipity60 commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:05pm

Thanks Bowin. I watched way too much of that. Ha ha.
COVID Summer.
It was the best of times.
It was the worst of times.
Could be a few years until we see a summer like tis again.

scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:12pm

Time to get some work done

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:14pm

I'm okay with this. No work got done for a over a week and some boards need to go to sick bay. Shoulders and eyes are toast. Don't get me wrong, I'd happily go round again but let's not be greedy lol

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:15pm

I'm cooked, need to go fishing.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:26pm

Weather looks complimentary but the flood waters are maybe tidak bagus for pelagics.

And I want pelagics.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:39pm

I was at Lismore this morning and the river was very brown, very angry and very swollen.

all that water can only end up in one place.

I'm thinking a floodwater jew before hopefully the water clears in time for a shot at a long tail or a mackerel before the water cools.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:44pm

Saw a nice spanno launch vertical through some bait this morning. Only 20metres away from me. Water was bathlike. Hoping most of the rain we've had our way has been very coastal, not too much up in the catchment and on the farms.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:47pm

there's been a ton inland here in the Richmond and Wilsons catchment.
lots of water.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 8:49pm

Yeah looked like it's been penetrating a bit further inland up your way.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 6:26am

We'll have brown town here on the run out tide for a few more weeks yet with the water we've already got on the coastal floodplains. Looks like there's still a bit of rain in the long range forecast to keep them topped up.

Ride on

GreenJam's picture
GreenJam's picture
GreenJam commented Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 3:32pm

wow, all you guys talking about flood waters and heaps of rain in catchments - the opposite up here, nothing penetrating inland from the coast, it's dry as. Just endured 3 days of near 40 degrees, the ground in most places (away from deeper gullies/drainage lines) is dry, areas are browning off again.
I repeat - is this La Nina going to be a dud for SEQ? Sunshine Coast hinterland/Mary Valley in particular?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 4:19pm

Not a dud by the SC beach GreenJam, plenty of rain all Summer here, everything's green and growing like crazy.

GreenJam's picture
GreenJam's picture
GreenJam commented Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 2:44pm

yeah I know Sprout. Last 2 times I ventured down to the coast in the last 2 weeks, both times were pissing down, but nothing a little way inland. Thankfully a storm last night to wash away 3 near heatwave days, only 16.5mm here. A big drop in the hinterland is well overdue.

Dannon's picture
Dannon's picture
Dannon commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 7:18pm

Thanks Huey.....

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 9:08pm

Loving how cool this summer has been. Few more sleeps and it’ll be autumn.

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw commented Monday, 22 Feb 2021 at 9:42pm

Time to repair my marriage and let the kids know i didn’t run away. Good timing. Home front was getting difficult to manage.

Cjw

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir commented Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 10:42am

Okay that's enough now, ta Huey

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding commented Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 4:52pm

Yep...could barely get to my feet this morning tommy, butchered multiple takeoffs due to noodle arms and could barely paddle out of the impact zone and almost felt physically ill haha. Im done for a while, too cooked.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir commented Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 11:05am

Haha love it mate! I had to take my foamie out yesterday as I needed that extra litreage with the knackered arms. Still had heaps of fun, but may I say... diminishing returns. Need a few sleep-ins, bring on the onshores.