South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 8th February)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, wind affected surf until Thurs
• New S/SE groundswell building Fri, arriving late in the north, prob peaking Sat AM most coasts
• Improving winds from Friday
• Long term outlook is promising

Recap: What a weekend! Light variable winds and sea breezes across most regions, with a temporary easing to 4-5ft early Saturday rebuilding slowly across some coasts from the afternoon onwards, with 6-8ft sets observed at several exposed locations through into Sunday morning, by which time a general easing trend began to occur. Buoy data suggests Saturday night saw peak in size, and wave heights were generally a little smaller south of about Yamba. We’ve seen 3-5ft Northern NSW open beaches this morning, easing slowing through the day, though SE Qld still managed early 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches. However gusty southerlies have occupied the coast for much of the day, confining the best waves to sheltered spots.

Early Monday sets at D'Bah

Late Monday sets at D'Bah

Still chunky on the Sunny Coast this morning

This week (Feb 9 - 12)

You know what? Take the next three days off. It ain’t really worth it. Especially given the incredible couple of weeks we’ve had. 

Main justification for taking a break is a lack of good surf. We’ve got a firm coastal ridge in place and it’ll maintain fresh S/SE winds across most coasts through Tuesday and Wednesday, even holding Thursday across most regions north from about Coffs. And with only associated short range S’ly swells arriving at the same time, those beaches picking up the most size will be wind affected - and it’ll be very small at sheltered spots. 

Sure, there’ll be small runners across the outer Goldy points on the low tide but it’ll be pretty small at best. South facing beaches south of Byron will pick up the most size with 3ft+ sets on offer, though it’ll be much smaller elsewhere, especially north of the border. Swell periods will slowly increase later Wednesday and into Thursday but I don’t think we’ll see much more than another foot at exposed beaches as a result.

However, a developing ridge through the Coral Sea is expected to slowly strengthen all week, and it’ll generate a secondary short range SE swell that should slowly start to appear from about Wednesday onwards, and by Thursday should be offering peaky 2ft+ sets at outer SE Qld points. This will provide workable options under the S/SE breeze. 

An underlying source of this week’s southerly swells will be a front pushing into the lower Tasman Sea tonight, merging tomorrow with the troughy remnants that’s generating the current breeze. It’ll form a more significant Tasman Low off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island. 

This Tasman Low is expected to reach peak strength on Wednesday morning (see below) and this puts an arrival time of peak energy sometime on Friday morning across the Mid North Coast, reaching the Far North Coast later in the day. The timing for this swell front is crucial, because the coastal ridge is expected to concurrently ease on Friday, allowing winds to become light and variable - though there’ll still be some surface wobble through the lineup at exposed spots thanks to four days of locally fresh breezes. So, conditions will be improving though perhaps not as quickly as we'd like.

The swell source is quite flukey, as the fetch will extend around the SW tip of NZ, but I’m confident for some very good waves - local winds pending - with swell direction trending S/SE thru’ SE. Relatively long swell periods (13-14 seconds) should boost surf size across exposed spots, with sets pushing 4-5ft+ at times though it’ll be inconsistent. Surf size will be smaller elsewhere, including SE Qld where we’ll probably see 2-3ft+ sets at exposed northern ends very late afternoon (if we’re lucky), smaller near 2ft+ on the outer points - and it’ll be very inconsistent.

Anyway, my main concern is in the timing of its leading edge, which may not be until mid-late afternoon north from Yamba and into SE Qld. This may result in Saturday morning offering the best waves. 

Also in the water later this week will be some small long period E’ly groundswell from a tropical depression near Fiji (TD09F) which may intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next day or so. Unfortunately, it’s expected to now track rapidly to the south and therefore I’m not expecting a great deal of swell from it, just some faint lines on Friday and Saturday, certainly not worth working around.

This weekend (Feb 13 - 14)

Friday’s S/SE groundswell will probably peak early morning across most regions, somewhere in the 3-5ft range across Northern NSW and 2-3ft in SE Qld (upper end of this size at exposed northern ends), though with a gradual easing through the day - and very long breaks between sets. Early light winds are likely to crop up from the north as a front passes across the southern regions. Smaller surf is then expected from this source on Sunday. 

Otherwise, the aforementioned E’ly groundswell may also provide some small lines but I can’t see there being much more than a stray foot or two every fifteen minutes. 

Looking elsewhere, and the only other area of interest to monitor is a small trough in the north-eastern Tasman Sea, sitting at the tail end of a modest ridge pushing through the Coral Sea. On Thursday, it’s expected to deepen slightly and may possibly retrograde to the west. It’s early days but this could be a source of fun, useful E’ly swell by Sunday.

Anyway, there’s a few things to keep an eye out for. Let’s reevaluate on Wednesday.

Next week (Feb 15 onwards)

Long term suggests a whole region of unstable troughiness throughout the Tasman Sea next week, which - whilst not conclusive at this early stage - is pointing to a renewal of easterly swells for the East Coast for the following week. I’m mildly excited at the long term prospects, to be honest - it’s all pointing in the right direction for some very good waves. Just need a few more days to confirm the trends.

See you Wednesday!