thermalben

Dynamic forecast, mainly from the southPremium content for Swellnet Pro subscribers

We're coming to the end of a long E'ly swell cycle, as a strong S'ly swell cycle starts to take shape. More in the Forecaster Notes.

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Comments

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW commented Wednesday, 13 Jan 2021 at 9:02pm

I don’t know, going off the surf forecast chart there doesn’t look like much to get excited about here on the Sunshine Coast. Been an absolutely abysmal summer thus far up here. So over howling onshores and lousy short period, peaky swells.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 7:47pm

I've had 5-6 very, very good sessions thus far this year. December was a bit hit and miss but I've found little to complain about. Frothing at the moment!

We must reside in different areas of the SC

juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 9:02am

The notes highlight the fact that the gap between high and low tide is bigger than normal. This morning I found myself getting stuck in some rips that I would usually just paddle out of pretty easily which sapped a lot of my energy. Am I just old, tired and unfit or does the bigger tidal swing equal stronger rips?

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 3:10pm

Ok, I know this is a bitchy splitting hairs ungrateful cant please everyone comment but does it annoy anyone on the SC that seeing clean peaky coffs harbour beachies which is 5hrs and 10mins non covid fuel food stop away somewhat annoyinG! The gleeful tout of incoming solid south swells is sadly irrevelant tbh. Poor phucks at Agnes must me nadding themselves for fun to take their minds off it!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 3:16pm

Yeah, sorry, looked tasty this AM..

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 4:02pm

Ha. Not helpful! I know the report is SE QLD/Nth NSW but Coffs Harbour is 540 km north of Sydney and 500 km south of the Sunny Coast so unless Im planning on a serious road trip (Hi honey the waves look good in Coffs today so I'll be back in 15 hours - might be a touch late back for work from the dawny) its kinda not really of any great value. I guess including places where there's something rideable gives people hope as otherwise SC would just be poo poo and more Sth swell missin ya poo. On another note, Is it true the early reports (or all reports for that matter) are done in house outta SN offices and not by actually SC based reporters? I just need to know who's smoking the most crack!

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 10:48pm

It’s been average, in the past 2 weeks I’ve hit the water about 5 times just to get wet. Only 2 surfs we’re memorable....mid tide chest high with a slight wall to hit on the central Sunshine Coast. Nothing exciting. High or low tide have been absolute garbage with the small trade swell. High tide has just swallowed it up and low tide has been waist high close outs. Missing Coffs Harbour And a coastline that’s more exposed to SE swells.

Cjw

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 10:48pm

It’s been average, in the past 2 weeks I’ve hit the water about 5 times just to get wet. Only 2 surfs we’re memorable....mid tide chest high with a slight wall to hit on the central Sunshine Coast. Nothing exciting. High or low tide have been absolute garbage with the small trade swell. High tide has just swallowed it up and low tide has been waist high close outs. Missing Coffs Harbour And a coastline that’s more exposed to SE swells.

Cjw

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 3:36pm

Haha, +1. My entire three week break on the SC consisted of me looking at any cams other than the SC cams a grand total of 0 times. It's just not worth the FOMO feelings. And it also takes the shine off the waves that were on offer up there, which for the most part, for me, were good fun and somewhat consistent considering the time of year.

nick.minor's picture
nick.minor's picture
nick.minor commented Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 4:40pm

Had some ok waves at Agnes over the break.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 10:15am

I only ever have expectations for April/May, any other consistent/quality surf is a bonus. As a surfer I still question why I live here a few times a year. Worst cock-tease surf coastline in the country.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 10:27am

it seems kind of weird to me that the sunny coast has been dipping out on this extended trade swell round.

fetch looks like it would be bigger up there than here but it seems to be consistently the opposite.

nothing amazing here but consistently fun 2-3ft surf.

mix of lightly crowded beach break bit and pieces and ultra crowded sessions at the Pass.
constant shark sightings- mostly bulls.

was surfing with my son and one other friend yesterday, he's a expert fisho with a good eye.
just some sloppy but fun semi point surf when he yells......hey, hey, big shark.

I told my young fella to come over , got him between me and shore and shepherded him into the rocks.

he reckons 6-7ft bully. chunk.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 11:17am

The killer up there at this time of year is the relentless E/NE - E/SE onshores that don't let up. The humidity and warm night temps don't allow for any inversion for the chance of a clean morning. It's 10am time of year up there ATM. It always looks way more inviting, than looking at a warbly backlit lineup at dawn. Problem is by that time you're gonna get exposed to nuclear level sun lasers.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 11:36am

so true. that mid-morning glass off is a very real thing.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 12:41pm
Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 12:42pm

As FR said hard to imagine there hasn’t been swell at SC. However can understand if it’s been totally onshore.

South goldy can be SW, seaway S-SE and SC totally onshore at first light. Suspect this has been the case because it’s been light SW everyday this week here.

Been an ultra consistent period further south. 2–3’ everyday this week. Hasn’t been a non- surfable day all year so far.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:13pm

My part of the SC has been fantastic for the last three weeks at least. Been pockets of offshores (3-4 hours thereof this AM), and the points haven't been (relatively) crowded. My neighbours complaining on here mustn't be searching too hard.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:37pm

no need for specifics, but central ,southern or northern SC?

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 7:05pm

Northern

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 at 6:18pm

I surfed southern, central and northern SC over the break and found good enough waves everyday (with workable winds) when there was some energy in the water. Granted I was happy to drive 30 to 45 mins to get to spots from my parents place in buderim, but I found them fairly easily. I'm with Tom on this one, waves a plenty and not much difference to what I would have expected at home on the Goldy or far north NSW.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 at 6:19pm

+1 tomrnoir

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:21pm

I think I've surfed every day. sometimes twice.
mostly because my son has been frothing and is just a bit young to be out there by himself.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:27pm

Surfing is for losers.

Sitting on the beach with a broken wrist is where it’s at these days.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:31pm

It’s been great and this low level trade swell has been helping the banks following the blow up mid December.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:34pm

fishing has been shitt though, I thought by now the fresh would have stirred things up, can barely raise a scale.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:40pm

Surfed a remote beach last weekend, gin clear water and old mate hooking a coupla solid Salmon at dawn. Don't think he was happy we surfed the patch of sand outside from him, though he'd caught one solid one already, looked 4-5kg..

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:45pm

how was the water temp?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 1:49pm

Balmy, prob like 22.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 2:00pm

wow, normally those salmon like cooler temps.

been a lot of mullet and a lot of bull sharks, tigers and the odd white but very little else.

normally juvenile GT's and other trevally species are thick as around the headlands. they've been totally absent this year.

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 4:54pm

I nearly choked again this am. 4.45 am call was west wind and clean 2 foot NE 9 sec period bump. I sussed the cams thinking I was watching Glenelg in SA. Drove to the beach and looked around for the Glenelg Pub as the surf was ....well...still short of expectations. The wind was west though to be fair. TICK! Sat and waited until the tide filled inner banks enough about 6,45 making for a few short but Ok rides (better than working lets say) and got out about 8.30. By then there was alot of crew out at SShine. Doesnt anyone work anymore.

Rusty Forest's picture
Rusty Forest's picture
Rusty Forest commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:25pm

Finally it all came together today, everything forecast occurred. Nice clean head high peaks with a bit of push from the east. WNW winds early. The high tide did finally eat it up due to backwash.

Rusty

Bob Sacamano's picture
Bob Sacamano's picture
Bob Sacamano commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 6:00pm

It seems to be a common occurrence that day 10 of the 14 day forecast predicts a 10ft swell on the way. I usually treat the immediate 3-5 days as pretty reliable based on the notes, and the rest an indication of what lies ahead, again in conjunction with the notes. I just notice that the surf forecast commonly has that spike and it typically never eventuates. Any takers for an explanation?

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 6:47pm

I am with you Bob, I often freak out at the long term forecast stating impending doom with a mysto 10foot east swell. but generally, it disappears. it has been consistently appearing (then disa;ppearing a week out) for the last 6 - 12 months. I would I would say this is just model noise and the further out we go out the forecast the diveregence in statistical variance increases dramatically. i.e. more options and combinations/permutations for the models to test.. Key is checking Ben's forecase and if he doesn't call it it probably won't happen... classic example is 2 weeks ago had me dusting of the 6'8 in prep for a week over at nth straddie next week with a seemingly 8 foot sweel coming..... but now, it's a 6foot south swell. - well at least it didn't disappear totally!!!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 7:03pm

It’s a function of the GFS weather model which the wave model used as input. GFS model unfortunately exacerbates slight errors in the forecast as the forecast time frame extends. This compounds into Armageddon winds 12-14 days out!!!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 7:04pm

Got some super fun clean 2ft wedges this morning on a mid-high tide bank with just me and one other. Stoked.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 7:14pm

Been a fun few days of moderate quality beachies...warm water until today...wind went every which way today...N...NW...W...S...SE...none
Cracking storm too.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 11:10pm

Pardon the pun..