No end in sight to the easterly swell
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th May)
Best Days: Great waves for the entire period. Just a little windy out of the south but ideal for the points.
Recap: We’ve had plenty of easterly swell over the last few days, with Thursday holding 3-4ft and today pushing a little higher - and noticeably stronger - around 3-5ft. Today has also seen a building S’ly swell in the wake of a S’ly change that gradually pushed up the coast yesterday, and has held at strength today. Winds were light across many coasts on Thursday morning though.
Snapper on point this morning
Ain't called the Superbank for nothing
Kirra reeling this arvo
This weekend (May 16 - 17)
This east swell looks pretty juicy right now. Interestingly, model guidance has this event peaking on Saturday with more size in the swell and more strength in the period, but to be honest I just can’t see it getting much bigger.
Given the source of this swell (a stationary trough just north of New Zealand mid-week), the strength and width of the fetch was too small and far away to generate genuine 6ft sets (or bigger). There’ll also be some small SE swell in the mix from a modest ridge through the central Tasman Sea today.
As such, I’m going cautiously keep surf size similar to today with 4-5ft sets across most open beaches and outer points on Saturday (smaller as you run down the points), holding into Sunday but gradually easing.
Breezy conditions will persist both days under the influence of a coastal ridge, winds will hold out of the southern quadrant but there'll be isolated patches of morning sou’westers. As such the points will undoubtably be the pick of the coast.
Next week (May 18 onwards)
The source of our current easterly swell has merged into a broad trough extending eastwards from New Zealand longitudes out into the South Pacific.
There’s a healthy fetch sitting on the southern flank of this setup though it’s right on the periphery of the swell window, if anything partially inside the NZ swell shadow (see below). This will slightly restrict potential surf size from what’s an otherwise excellent distant swell source as it gradually moves eastwards.
Although we’ve already had well over a week of easterly swell from the broader synoptic system, and a whole weekend of additional energy to come, next week looks like it’ll maintain flukey, intermittent east swells thanks to the fetch remaining active until about Monday or Tuesday. With a travel time of four or five days from this region, we should see some kind of east swell right up through into next weekend.
Of course, it won’t be seven days (well, up to nineteen if you count back from when the first easterly energy started to build - way back last Wednesday 6th May!) of non-stop corduroy - there’ll be alternating periods of slow, lully surf and then other times when it pulses nicely.
Current expectations are for Sunday afternoon’s easing trend to level out to an inconsistent 3-4ft on Monday, before dropping a little into Tuesday morning, then pulsing sometime very late Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday around 3-5ft, probably holding this size range into Friday into the weekend with the periods drawing out, though becoming increasingly less frequent thanks to the greater travel distance. I’ll take a closer look on Monday once we’ve got some satellite data in.
In addition to this we’ll see a new Coral Sea ridge build from Monday onwards, and it’ll hang around all week providing 3-4ft E’ly swell across SE Qld and smaller surf south from Ballina. This should fit in the consistency holes quite nicely.
And our southern swell window is also looking really good. The storm track is off-axis right now, but a deep series of polar lows below the country early next week will generate long period energy for the East Coast, reaching Southern NSWon Friday, tracking into Northern NSW later Friday and into Saturday.
It’s still early days but south facing beaches south of Byron are likely to reach an inconsistent 4-5ft from this source.
There's also a suggestion that a small long period S'ly swell may glance the East Coast earlier in the week, from a strong frontal progression under the continent right now, but I don't think we'll see much size from it, only favouring south swell magnets south of Byron with inconsistent 1-2ft+ sets at best.
As for local winds, most of next week looks OK under a broad troughy pattern. We'll see the weekend's S/SE pattern hold into Monday (and maybe early Tuesday in SE Qld), but it'll become lighter and more variable through the middle of the week. There’ll be a few dicey windows of moderate onshores as the trough nudges close to the mainland, but on the balance it’s shaping up to be pretty good on the surface.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday!
Comments
One of the better runs of swell in a long time, happy days!!
Yeah Gold Coast scored, not so on the Sunshine Coast, Ben any joy coming up here?
14 paragraphs of forecast notes not enough?
So you saw 4-5 ft sets on the sunshine coast today? My point being SC needs a separate report.
And seriously you actually counted the paragraphs
Indeed it does. If it was a free service to read these notes then, yeah, I’ll take what I can get. But if I’m gonna pay for it I’d rather it was actually relevant to my location.
It really doesn't. It's not hard to figure out where might be working from basic swell and wind data. Ben's notes make it even easier, without crossing the line of naming spots. It seems there's a bunch of people new to the SC commenting on here that want GPS coordinates to the best bank at the best hour, fuck off.
No mate, just want the basics, swell size, direction, wind direction, not unlike every other forecaster notes. Who are these "bunch" of people? I'm not seeing that.
I've used Mooloolaba as an example, but if that's what you're after there's no point paying for it.
https://wind.willyweather.com.au/qld/sunshine-coast/mooloolaba.html
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/monitoring/wav...
Spoon fed and don't wanna chew for themselves
You serious? I know I can read between the lines and disregard most of the report, but what’s the point in that!?
The reports have fuck all relevance to the Sunshine Coast, so why should I bother continuing to pay for the service when I’d just be better off looking at the surfcam day to day?
That’s the trouble if you gonna sell something mate, it has to do what it says on the tin.
But anyway, I don’t think I need to bother. I done did studies in atmospheric physics. I might as well just make me own mind up.
I shot water photos at forster today and it 3ft solid from the east where I was.
5ft southish swell at boomerang etc.
Yeah I don’t know hey, it’s been pretty shit house on the Sunshine Coast during this so called great period. Maybe it’d be better to break the surf forecast up so that the northern most point of these forecasts was the GC.
I’m honestly getting a bit over paying to read about southerly swells that never get to the SC and E’ly swells that rarely come off with any quality up here. Maybe it’d be better to have a forecast with the Sunshine Coast as the southern most point and Agnes Waters as the northern most.
The forecaster notes need not be anywhere near as lengthy as these, especially given fewer swell directions impact up here.
maybe move south ..
get pretty good up that way still..
- yeah its a bad idea...
Plenty of other reasons why I live on the Sunshine Coast. My point is simply the reports aren’t relevant to the Sunshine Coast unless you take the approach of disregarding 75% of the forecast 9 months of the year.
This thing ain’t free either. I’m 50/50 as to whether I’ll renew my subscription next year if it’s just gonna be irrelevant to me most of the time.
It’s an option to subscribe or not. I would read the notes and if a straight south swell is forecast than it should be well understood SC will be missing out (most of it). I’m not sure how a separate report will assist people who aren’t happy with the quality of the east swell, their banks, the wind etc. Am I missing something here?
Ben is not Huey. This is just a guide, the rest is up to you all. As I’ve said before I think too much is given out here.
Totally agree. I think frustrations and the accompanying negative energy on missing out on these swells on the sunny coast is being vented towards swellnet. It's weird tho, what more detail can be provided when it's widely know that most spots up there will be lackluster if the swell isn't from the right direction? Yes, it's unfortunate, but isn't it a given that more detail goes into the spots which will actually fetch the incoming energy? For what it's worth, I can think of one spot off the top of my head that catches south swell up there and if lived there, I'd just make do with that. If not, and surfing was that important to me, id consider moving.
Totally agree with your comments. I feel sorry for the guy complaining though, its not worth his money subscribing
Yeah it can be hard at times but far out Ive had some of the best sessions up there too. It's not all doom and gloom, i regularly get updates from some friends of mine up there about some of the better sessions they've had recently. Come to think of it, I was up there for Xmas with family for over a week and didn't miss the Goldy one bit haha.
I feel your pain , SDW. I’ve had similar thoughts.
Given the number of subscribers in SEQ in comparison to Coffs to the border a little more detail regarding Sunshine Coast and SEQ generally wouldn’t go astray.
I’m not always keen to see the new South swell hitting Gallows, when it means little in reference to SC.
We need to be careful not to shoot the messenger though. Ben gives a great detailed forecast and I understand separating the regions would mean more work posting the forecast notes.
Ben, is seperating the regions at Byron something that might come one day in the future ?
Its just a geographical fact that South swells are generally smaller weaker and later to arrive( if at all.) on SC.
On the plus side SC often does better in East swells and there’s more protection in NE winds.
Whoever is doing the 8am report for Sunny Coast is doing a great job.
Punctual, no overcalls and enough detail ,without naming breaks. Leaves it to the reader to join the dots.
Regarding the 8am SC forecast......what happened to Pridemore? His reports made my day!
You mean the 8:00am report that would drop in at 11:00am and tell you how good the Maroochy stretch was 3 hours ago? Yeah I miss that too...
Gold.
As a long suffering sunny coaster, I kind of get your point, but if there's a strong southerly swell regime then having more detailed notes for the SC isn't going to make the surf any better..
The forecast notes will just be one paragraph saying 'small refracted lines at the northern end of the coast, tiny elsewhere' which is what Ben puts into the forecast anyway. At the end of the day, whether you like it or not it's the same swell source for us just smaller and inconsistent so I don't see why we need separate notes.
And yes, it was absolutely pumping yesterday all arvo.
You're probably right there surfiebum, but SC didn't rate a mention in the above notes (it usually does)
Maybe because there was so much froth on happening on the GC we were forgotten.
Some of those tubes coming through greeny on the cam look so perfect and easy, unlike the snapper ones. 8.36am looked like someone got 10sec+ barrel? Was pixelating out with the sunglare though. See what you think when the replay is up.
Crowd is insane.
Kirra cam has cataracts too btw.
Try from 4.55 on the 8.31am replay greenmount.
Dream wave.
Also check the burning of old mate at 10.41 30sec mark, 2 finger salute haha
Excellent haha
it's funny, normally after a good run of swell, crowds start to diminish.
in this case, its the opposite, crowds are getting worse.
dawny this morning was nutty.
heaps of good waves around though.
The shoulders are knackered
It’s been a great run
Banks are well groomed across our region,
Loving these southerlies
I enjoy waking up to read the surf report at around the 6am every morning, if the report says its 1-2ft saves me a 7 min drive to the beach, also the Park Beach web cam tells the story along the whole beach to Macauleys, well worth the subscription dollars.
This coronavirus lockdown has had some great benefits - the slowing down, smaller foot print etc. But the opposite has been my experience for the premier spots in my locale. Even a couple of proven crowd dodge spots over the past 2 decades have been filling up a bit. Anyway, it's a good opportunity to practice compassion and acceptance.
We get what what we need, not what we want...
Really like that attitude mundies. Should be more of you in the lineup.
Opinions are like arseholes.... Everyones got one. So here, check out my sphincter..... most S.C locals are abundantly aware of how skunked we get when the south swells are running. No-one needs to be spoonfed.
I dont think we need a seperate report, (though coffs-agnes is a HUGE area)however, this latest report has no mention of the sunny coast at all!!! A quick blurb would suffice... Perhaps ben has noticed a little anomaly or brief window in wind direction/strength that most wont pick up on. Some people would pay for that advice....maybe call it a subscription??? Give the people what they pay for.
The report also doesn't mention the gold coast by name either though.
I wish not mentioning the SC meant we skipped out on the crowd factor, but it's honestly been stupid up here this weekend. A dozen guys rocking off at sub par point breaks with 50+ already out and sets coming through every 10 minutes...
If it makes any sunny coasters feel better - one forecast for coffs to agnes =869km
In WA we get one forecast Margs to Perth = 300kms, that actually covers 3036 km of coast
Lancelin to Exmouth = 1133km, Augusta to Eucla = 1603 km, anyone in these zones just uses the Margs forecast as an indication for their area.
Hardly anyone doing daily reports in the regions here either
And the Margs one includes the whole South Coast as you pointed out.... (incidentally a completely different ocean mind you) with absolutely no information except numbers....which i'm more than happy to dissect/cross reference and work out. The numbers never lie.. Swellnet always has the right numbers and general info to keep the wave count high...honestly i've had too many epic sessions thanks to these legends. Cheers swellnet!
OK, seems there's two trains of thought here.
(1) some people feel they need more information (i.e. a seperate Forecaster Notes for the Sunshine Coast) so they can properly evaluate the surf outlook, and
(2) some people feel they're not getting value for money for their subscription.
To the first point: it's worth mentioning that we get the same complaints from Mid North Coast surfers during summer, when I go to great lengths describing the ins and outs of a sustained trade swell pattern, and then add in the default line "smaller south from about Yamba".
Also, there is not a single swell event where *some* beach/coast/region doesn't come in under budger/below expectations etc (or sometimes, punches above its weight). Hell, all year I've supposedly been surfing bigger south swells on the Tweed Coast than what the Ballina stretch has received, despite its notoriety as a south swell magnet. But.. that's just the way these things go. A lot of these characteristics are impossible to forecast, but the knowledge gained can be used for the future, which is a benefit.
And the Sunshine Coast isn't as well setup for these kinds of swell combos (distant E'ly groundswell, fresh S'ly winds) as the Gold Coast, because most breaks are generally more exposed (it doesn't have the long sand bottom points that pick up the bulk size in an east swell, and also offer protection from the wind). So, options are limited here, which gives a perception that the swell "wasn't very good" - a point that's further rubbed in when you're watching mindless Superbank barrels on the cams.
As for value for money - I suppose that's up to each person to determine the value of a subscription. We're trying our best to produce the best possible service we can (for 22c per day).
One of the tricky parts of our business is that every surfer values something different - some people only use the cams, others just want the surf reports, some people only need the 16 day swell graphs, whilst others subscribe purely for the Forecaster Notes. And there are some people who subscribe just to support our editorial.
Every single one of these items attracts varying degrees of feedback, and we're doing the best we can to continue to improve them - but we are only a very small team and therefore don't have unlimited resources. Remember, we're in a time when media companies are dropping like flies due to the disappearance of advertising revenue, and good products and services are very expensive to conceive, build, host and maintain.
Keep up the good work.
Haha 22c a day! Bargain! Ben, I recommend rounding that figure up to 25, it would be extremely handy for the coins in my ash tray! Love ya work SN crew!!
Agree. Keen up the great work Ben & team swellnet
Mate, that was refreshing to read. I don't know where else can you find such transparency in any industry where difficult lines of questioning (on a regular basis it now seems) can be answered with such insightful and respectful responses; from the very top to boot. I cannot think of one. Great work mate.
I am more than happy to continue my subscription Ben!! Thank you for the effort from you and the SN Team!
Have lived and surfed Sunshine Coast all my life, and can quite easily read between the lines as to where will be worth a look with each swell event of set of conditions.
I guess that has required a bit of effort on my part over the years. And I guess some don't want to put that effort in. Up to the individual. But don't change a thing Ben. Keep up the great work.
Thanks Ben, I have and will always subscribe not just for the notes and mainly for the cams and other content, nothing better than kicking back after work or whatever and watching good waves somewhere around australia that you've had an association with, but when you read that it was 4-5ft friday in the notes and it will be again saturday you know it's not the SC you're referencing, so that's why I asked the question, more out of interest why the SC would be much smaller than down south (obviously now after the event the swell fetch / direction favoured gold coast NNSW) I'm certainly not bitching about this just trying to learn, Cheers
"And the Sunshine Coast isn't as well setup for these kinds of swell combos...So, options are limited here, which gives a perception that the swell "wasn't very good"."
Can verify that for Saturday at least. One spot I went to in the morning was firing (briefly) while other spots seemed either too protected or too exposed. I'm guessing only one or two other spots could have looked anything like it on the SC.
I figure most surfers know where to go sniffing, but most people don't have the time to keep up with whats happening at every location. The winners would be the ones with a bit of a crew up and down the coast, keeping each other informed about conditions.
for $7 a month or $80 a year best value IMO, I would happily pay double
Sounds like ‘some’ of the sunny Coasters need a disclaimer at the top of each southerly swell regime ’small to tiny, if at all, refracted sth swells - take a board with high volume’. ‘Everyone else
read on.
Hello long range charts!!!
Sounds like the demographic of the Sunny hoax has changed quite a lot. The three years I spent up there they seemed a hardy bunch, resigned to the fact that they only got waves 6 months of the year at best and could sniff out half a wave a month in advance. Rest of the time was spent downing schooeys and sucking bongs whilst saving up for the next o/s trip. Now it appears they’re in danger of tripping over their $25 soy latte and gluten free muffin deal at the local cafe on their way for a 10am dawn patrol. FFS.
Bahahaha spot on.
Nailed it hahaha
Spent alot of time on the SC in my teenage years as my older brothers were living in wurtulla with a good crew of phenomenonal surfers from all over the SC. I'm 32 now and I can't for the life of me ever imagine those boys ever commenting on here wondering why they aren't getting enough detail in a surf forecast cast..haha it could be a generational thing, times have definitely changed.
Oh no the old crew are still here but the soy latte set still keep arriving from somewhere over border
I'd cool your jets Don.
lots of instability anything could happen.
at a minimum though, it's a surf pattern.
wish it would drop for a day so I could go fishing. still pelagics everywhere in the surf zone.
Finally got a taste of the crowds everyone is talking about.
Surfed a popular spot a few kms from home as I had business to attend in the vicinity . Sure it was Sunday but it was fucken packed. Spoke to a few people out in the water and none of them were locals. Most had traveled 3 hrs or so to get there. They all said it was still less crowded than their home breaks.
Must be a shit fight every where else.
Waves were a bit average. Fun enough, but safe to say I blew it .
Yep it's a junky two foot here and with a hungry crew that seem to have come from everywhere, frothing and paddling in circles.
And this is at a B-grade spot.
Definitely not worth the effort - I lasted about 20 minutes.
No overseas travel = crowds at home.
yep. for the most part, vibe has been OK, sometimes a carnival type vibe, sometimes a bit more intense.
lots and lots of high frothing ripping going on.
bring your skill set or gtfo.
I’ve felt the crowds have settled down a tad the past week or so. Not sure why? People back at work/school maybe. Blew the froth off in the first month of this COVID situation. Dunno, don’t get me wrong there’s still plenty of crew around but feels less hectic.
How good is autumn eh?
this last week has been pretty all-time
It's been fun huh
Haha, I've been jostling and competing for the last six weeks, been getting some epic waves.
Today I GTFO.
Or as they say in the classics, today I didn't want to rock'n'roll so I didn't fucking come :)
Had an average session in strong sweepy 4-5ft surf yesterday. Less consistent, a smidge less size but much better lined up today.. much better waves. Lots of paddling both days. I am knackered!
Only a smidge smaller up there Ben?
Reckon down here is about half the size of yesterday.
Half the size on the GC points. Maybe because it was even more inconsistent than yesterday
Still 4ft here.
Half or less. Arse has dropped right out of it.
Bloody curious as to the size difference only 80 odd klicks up the coast considering there's heaps of east in the swell.
Are we using the same scale??
Edit: I suppose scale doesn't matter when we're talking proportions.
Really don't reckon it's been over 4 feet at all on the sc at any daylight point this weekend.
I'd say yesterday in Northern NSW has some lumpy 4ft, maybe 5ft sets (though that's pushing it), today was 2ft+.
Don't reckon I saw a 3ft wave where I surfed today.
I reckon yesterday the biggest were 4 feet every 10 mins. Today the biggest were 3 feet every 10 mins. Exposed spot SC
Easily well overhead on the Tweed today. Though less consistent than yesterday.
are we talking about that magic stretch of coast that is bigger on a S swell and bigger on an E swell?
Haha.
Fri evening it was double overhead. Saturday morning was 4-6’ and this morning was 3-4’. IMHO (of the open stretches where I was surfing)
SC Yesterday - exposed point (to east swells) was head high to overhead sets. Lots of push in the swell, lots of sections working, albeit slightly inconsistent with 5-10 wave sets every 5-10 mins.
SC today - same break was waist to shoulder high and super weak and inconsistent. Pretty much halved in size and power.
Crowds were horrendous both days... lots of Brisbane crew up I’d say.
Four foot plus
Swell down here in Sydney from the E/NE, Friday building to 4-6ft on the magnets, 3-5ft all day yesterday, still 3ft+ today and this evening.
SC scored a 1/10 today
Uninspiring here also. Lay day.
Painting + Beatles = contentment.
I subscribe because I can.
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