South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 11th November)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri AM: low/mod chance for some more small, long period S'ly swell, best suited to exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW. Sun/Mon: low chance for a small short range SE swell in SE Qld. 

Recap: Southeast Qld has remained very small over the last few days as expected, despite the arrival of an extremely long period south swell on Tuesday afternoon - peak swell periods were clocked in at 20 seconds at several buoys (though the timing was a little erratic - almost eight hours between the Gold Coast and Brisbane buoys, only two notable data points at Caloundra, intermittent data from Tweed Heads and no long period energy recorded at Mooloolaba).

However, south of the border this south swell provided some fun waves at south facing beaches this morning with inconsistent but well defined sets in the 2ft+ range. With light morning winds there were some fun waves on offer.

The outcome from this individual swell is very interesting, as it was the first in a series of long period south swells to grace the coast during the middle of this week - but this particular swell was not expected to produce much size, as it was actually generated by a deep polar low south-west of Western Australia (producing pumping surf in South Australia, Victoria and southern Tasmania on Monday). Not only is the distance travelled by the swell incredible, the size seen in Northern NSW is quite impressive given the extra refraction required - and especially seeing that wave heights remained relatively small in Southern NSW (on Tuesday) from the same source. 

This week (Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th)

No major changes for the rest of the week. We’re looking at light variable winds across most regions Thursday morning, tending northeast into the afternoon as a ridge strengthens along the Southern NSW coast. However, winds should remain relatively light north of Yamba.

Into Friday, early light winds will veer more northerly during the day as a low develops off Southern NSW but again most of the afternoon's strength will remain across the Mid North Coast, with lighter winds across SE Qld.  

Southeast Qld: Nothing major expect either day. The only new swell will be infrequent long period southerly swell, but it seems to be tracking behind schedule and will only favour a handful of super reliable south swell magnets anyway. Keep your expectations low as we’re looking at tiny surf at most beaches.

Northern NSW: As mentioned above, the next round of long period south swell - which was originally expected to be the better performing south swell of the two due this week - is running a little late.

It was supposed to arrive in Southern NSW this morning, and the Mid North Coast this afternoon, but current data in Sydney haven’t picked up anything (buoy data, or surfcam observations). As such, my confidence for this event has diminished a little - though I’ll keep an eye on the buoy data overnight and update in the comments below if there's anything of note.

In any case I think we can safely push back the arrival until Thursday morning (at least) on the Mid North Coast and Thursday afternoon on the Far North Coast, but wave heights should remain about the same from this source as per this morning's event, with extremely inconsistent 2ft+ sets possible at south swell magnets, and not much elsewhere. Expect smaller surf ahead of its arrival, and the surf will be tiny at beaches not completely open to the south.

Southern regions may also see a small push in mid-range SE swell on Thursday from a small SE fetch developing in the central western Tasman Sea today, but I doubt there’ll be much size in it and it probably won’t influence locations north of Port Macquarie either. 

As for Friday, we’ll probably see small inconsistent leftovers from Thursday's south swell, easing throughout the day and not a whole lot more. Aim for a morning surf at south swell magnets before the wind picks up from the north.

This weekend (Saturday 14th - Sunday 15th)

Nothing great is expected for the weekend. The small low developing off Southern NSW looks like it’s going to track eastwards, perpendicular to our swell window, and although a southerly flow will push along the coast during Saturday, its overall weak strength and disorganised structure won’t lend itself to the generation of very much size. 

A weak ridge pushing across the Northern Tasman Sea on Thursday should generate a small east swell for SE Qld and Northern NSW but in general this won’t have very much size either. 

The only aspect worth monitoring closely for Friday's notes is a trough associated with Saturday’s change that may stall across the Central Qld coast on Sunday and freshen SE winds about the SE Qld region at the same time. This has the potential to generate a short range SE swell for Sunday (or more likely Monday), but I’ll take a closer look at this on Friday.

So, the bottom line is - expect developing S’ly winds across Northern NSW early Saturday, extending into SE Qld from about late morning or lunchtime onwards (with N/NW winds ahead of it) and then a general S’ly tending SE flow through Sunday. Surf size will be small and peaky, biggest at south facing beaches south of the border late Saturday and into Sunday, with maybe a few 2-3ft sets but smaller surf elsewhere. Expect smaller surf across SE Qld too.

Next week (Monday 16th onwards)

Nothing major for next week at this stage. The aforementioned Central Qld coastal trough may provide some short range energy across SE Qld on Monday but no significant surf is currently expected.

The models are suggesting a small region of moderate trades in the Northern Tasman Sea early next week that may contribute some minor east swell to the region mid-week. Again, nothing spectacular is expected.

Otherwise, the only other source of new swell is a polar low forming SW of Tasmania on Sunday that looks like it may slingshot through out south swell window into Monday, generating a nice round of southerly groundswell for the end of next week.