Fun surf across all regions for the coming days

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 17th)

Best Days: Mid Coast today, South Coast tomorrow morning, both coasts Sunday, Mid Coast Monday and Tuesday, South Coast Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing swell tomorrow with NE winds down South, E/NE on the Mid ahead of sea breezes
  • Moderate + sized mix of W/SW swells building Sun, strongest late, holding Mon
  • Light variable winds ahead of weak sea breezes Sun
  • Variable winds Mon AM (possibly SW South Coast but most likely W/NW), shifting S/SW through the day and freshening, tending S/SE later on the Mid
  • Easing swell Tue with gusty S/SE-S winds
  • Strong S winds Wed with a local windswell down South

Recap

Our stronger pulse of mid-period W/SW swell filled in yesterday across the Mid Coast with cross-shore winds and 2ft+ waves ahead of workable sea breezes.

The South Coast was onshore and mostly a mess with a building, local windswell in the mix.

Today we’ve got clean conditions inside the gulf and the early rising tide brought 2ft+ sets while the South Coast has also cleaned up with lighter east winds and lumpy surf to 3ft.

This weekend and next week (Jan 18 - 24)

One swell down, the next to come.

Our current W/SW swell should back off to 1-1.5ft across the Mid Coast tomorrow morning with 2ft waves down South and conditions should be much cleaner with a NE breeze (E/NE across the Mid Coast) ahead of sea breezes.

Moving into Sunday and our long-range W/SW groundswell is due to fill in, with it generated by a great, slow moving frontal progression through the southern Indian Ocean, with extra-large surf due from it across Western Australia later today and tomorrow morning, onwards to us Sunday/Monday.

While an initial increase in size is due for Sunday morning, the strongest pulse of energy is due into the afternoon, holding Monday. The longevity of the swell is thanks to the slow moving nature of the progression and the remnants of it continuing to project strong W/SW winds through our western swell window last night and today.

The Mid Coast should build to 2ft Sunday afternoon with 3ft sets likely late and into Monday on the favourable parts of the tide.

The South Coast should see 3-4ft waves across Middleton later Sunday and Monday morning and winds look favourable still with variable morning breezes on Sunday due to give into relatively weak sea breezes, a little less favourable for the South Coast Monday morning and possibly light SW.

There’s a good chance for variable W/NW winds around Victor and the Mid Coast will be clean under a SE’ly before sea breezes kick in, shifting back S/SE on dark.

A trough will bring fresh S-S/SE winds on Tuesday as the swell eases with the Mid Coast still likely to offer fun, though infrequent 1-2ft sets, poor down South.

The middle to end of the week looks average with persistent southerly winds and weak amounts of S’ly windswell, while next weekend could provide better surf with a healthy frontal progression due to move in, bringing with it a moderate sized swell with favourable winds. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 10:25am

What size you expecting down south Sunday morning Craig? Same as Saturday or smaller?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 10:47am

Sorry, probably 2ft to occasionally 3ft across Middleton.

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 10:48am

Cheers mate

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 6:46am

It's 1ft.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:53am

As mentioned in the notes, the swell is due this afternoon.

badgertooth's picture
badgertooth's picture
badgertooth Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 6:24pm

It’s still 1ft

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:10pm

Def small new groundswell lines pushing into the Mid now.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:40pm

Pretty slow going but some lovely long period lines in the gulf for the late session. Would be better with a little less tide.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:54pm

old-dog's picture
old-dog's picture
old-dog Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 8:16pm

17 second period, felt more like 17 minutes. Pretty inco. Can't complain though, only 2 or 3 dead flat days in the past 2 months. Unheard of. Lots of 1-2' days a few 3' days but no real epic all time 4'swells. Most crowded xmas break ever on record.

ryder's picture
ryder's picture
ryder Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 8:48am

I thought the crowds were quiet on the Mid between Christmas / New Years and even that last swell a couple of weeks back.

old-dog's picture
old-dog's picture
old-dog Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 9:12am

Everyone I have spoken to are saying it's out of control, they drive up and down and then go home, even on weekdays with 1' waves all the carparks have been full. Covid was a game changer. Large groups of clueless loggers meeting at breaks putting on their makeup and all paddling out together. On the last decent swell at Triggs I finally saw a window about mid morning between shifts, only 6 out, within 5 mins. of paddling out I was joined by about 25 crew. I paddled over to U-turns and had the worst surf of my entire life.
Sometimes it's packed all morning but by lunchtime if you are lucky and the sea breeze stays away you can get a half decent quiet surf.

ryder's picture
ryder's picture
ryder Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:03pm

I know the crew you're talking about. Mostly hipster 'loggers' hunting in packs. One van pulls up, then 4 more vans pull up. This mob hold each other's hands - it's a Gen Z thing.
But yeah, Christmas crowds were mild compared to a normal weekends of late.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 8:04am

Yeah looks like this one didn't really perform. Bummer.