Tricky days ahead thanks to troughy weather

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday April 1st)

Best Days: Saturday morning South Coast, Sunday morning for the keen South Coast, Monday South Coast ahead of the change

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized pulses of S/SW swell tomorrow, strongest Fri AM
  • Mod-fresh SE winds tomorrow, strengthening late
  • Light-mod E/SE-E tending S/SE winds Fri
  • Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell for Sat PM with light S/SE winds, increasing from the S/SW into the PM
  • Easing swell Sun with moderate S/SW winds, freshening
  • Easing swell Mon with W/NW tending S/SW winds late
  • Moderate + sized S/SW swell Tue with S/SW winds
  • Larger surf mid-late next week


Yesterday's changed kicked up 2ft of windswell across the Mid Coast though conditions were a bit all over the shop. The South Coast was also average with onshore winds and building surf.

This morning we saw a window of light offshore winds across both coasts but with a drop in swell back to 1-1.5ft in the gulf, with better 2-3ft surf down South. Winds have since shifted back onshore across the Mid Coast creating bumpy conditions.

This week and weekend (Apr 2 - 7)

Looking at the coming days, and we've got some fun mid-period S/SW swell on the cards for the South Coast, generated by an active Southern Ocean storm track, but the main issue will be the winds. Tomorrow should come in at 3ft+ across Middleton with a better pulse of energy for Friday morning to 3-4ft.

A trough moving east will shift winds SE into tomorrow morning, moderate to fresh in nature before strengthening into the evening.

Come Friday, winds are due to temporarily ease and shift E/SE-E, though there's likely to be a ton of leftover lump, and general funk to the lineup, so not ideal.

Into the weekend, lighter S/SE winds are due Saturday morning across the South Coast with a temporary drop in swell from Friday, ahead of a good pulse of new S/SW groundswell into the afternoon as winds shift more S/SW.

The source will be a healthy polar low forming under the country today and tomorrow. Pre-frontal gale to severe-gale W/NW winds will be followed by a secondary fetch of stronger severe-gale W/NW winds. The swell looks moderate + in size, pulsing to 4-5ft, then easing back from 3-4ft on Sunday morning.

The swells will be too south for the Mid Coast with it not due to top 0.5-1ft on the magnets.

Unfortunately winds look to linger out of the S/SW Sunday, moderate in strength, with Monday coming in cleaner as the surf eases further back from 2-3ft across Middleton under a W/NW breeze. A trough will bring a S/SW change later in the day and this will then persist on Tuesday, spoiling a new pulse of moderate + sized SW swell.

This and larger S/SW energy to follow up looks to be generated by increasing Southern Ocean frontal activity, projecting up towards Victoria under the influence of a developing node of the Long Wave Trough.

The position of the node, which looks to be just east of Victoria isn't favourable for us, as we'll fall on the tail end of the frontal activity resulting in winds from the south-western quadrant. There might be windows of early W/NW winds along with large S/SW groundswell pulses, but check back here over the coming updates for a clearer idea on the outlook.