Craig

Solid swells from all directions this period

South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th April)

Best Days: Both coasts tomorrow, South Coast Sunday, both coasts Tuesday and Wednesday

Recap

Poor conditions across both coasts yesterday with onshore winds and small surf down South, and a weak building windswell on the Mid Coast.

Today our new W/SW swell is filling in with bumpy 2ft waves on the Mid this morning, but we should see 3ft sets on the magnets through the day, 3-4ft off Middleton and clean/lumpy early but now onshore.

This weekend and next week (Apr 18 - 24)

Today's first pulse of W/SW swell was generated by a strong mid-latitude front pushing under WA and through the Bight the last couple of days.

Following right on the back of this today is a secondary front which is generating SW gales south of us, but at the base of this, a fetch of severe-gale SW winds are being generated in our southern swell window.

What we should see is moderate to large levels of SW swell tomorrow down South, with a larger S/SW groundswell kicking later in the day, then easing Sunday and dropping right back on Monday.

Size wise, the Middleton stretch tomorrow morning should be around 4-5ft, with 2ft+ waves on the Mid Coast, with the pulse of S/SW groundswell providing 6ft sets late in the day at swell magnets on the South Coast.

Sunday will still be solid and easing from 4ft+ or so across Middleton, dropping to 2-3ft through the day with 1ft to occasionally 2ft leftovers Monday morning. The Mid Coast looks to ease from a slow 1ft to possibly 2ft Sunday, with a building windswell Monday - discussed below.

Looking at the local winds and tomorrow will be best down South with a morning W/NW breeze, W/SW-SW into the afternoon, while the Mid Coast should see light morning E'ly winds, with light to moderate W/NW breezes into the afternoon.

Sunday looks good again with early NE winds on the Mid, though freshening from the N through the day, with excellent N/NW tending fresh N/NE winds down South.

As the swell fades on Monday a strengthening cold front moving in from the west will bring an onshore change before dawn, with fresh but easing W/SW winds. Not a surf day with the fading small swell.

The Mid Coast will see building levels of swell though, with 1-2ft sets due through the day, much stronger Tuesday.

The source of this moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell will be a strengthening mid-latitude front come low through the weekend and Monday.

We'll see a great fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds projected up and then under WA Sunday, then pushing east and developing a low, with core wind speeds around the low due to reach severe-gale-force.

A strong W/SW groundswell should fill in Tuesday and provide easy 3ft waves across the Mid Coast, 4-5ft down South, then easing back from 2-3ft and 4ft respectively Wednesday morning.

With the frontal progression dipping south-east early next week, conditions look favourable with N/NW winds down South, N/NE tending N/NW on the Mid, and then similar Wednesday. We'll have another look at this and run through the expected winds and swell on Monday, as well as promising follow up swells. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Stef_Olly's picture
Stef_Olly's picture
Stef_Olly commented Friday, 17 Apr 2020 at 12:10pm

Bring on the best time of the year, oh yeah and stay the fk home lol as if!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 18 Apr 2020 at 10:31am

Nice glassy waves on the Mid earlier... wind's now up a smidge but it doesn't look too shabby.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 19 Apr 2020 at 1:29pm

The Bay!

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Monday, 20 Apr 2020 at 11:03am

Doing its best Padang impression. With Impossibles just the other side of the channel. There are some photos floating around of the usual spots cooking yesterday.

surfstarved's picture
surfstarved's picture
surfstarved commented Monday, 20 Apr 2020 at 12:59pm

Yes, a friend of a friend tells me it was reasonably good yesterday...

Don't let the bastards grind you down