Good surf developing from Wednesday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 10th April)

Best Days: South Coast Wednesday and Thursday mornings, Mid Coast Friday afternoon, both coasts Saturday, South Coast Sunday


Fun clean waves across the South Coast at dawn Saturday morning before an onshore change moved through shortly thereafter, creating poor conditions for the rest of the weekend but also kicking up solid amounts of windswell across both coasts Sunday.

Today the South Coast was still a mess with plenty of size, while the Mid Coast was cleaner but back to a smaller 1-2ft.

This week and weekend (Apr 11 – 16)

Hi everyone, it's good to be back on board after a couple of weeks away overseas.

The strong low responsible for our cold stormy weather is continuing east across Victoria while weakening and with this we'll see winds easing off and improving, although still onshore from the S/SE across the South Coast tomorrow.

Wednesday is much better with a morning NE breeze.

Today a mix of windswell and SW groundswell are breaking, and we'll see some new S/SW swell energy building through tomorrow, peaking Wednesday.

A mix of long-range inconsistent energy and closer-range swell is due, the more consistent and better swell for tomorrow and Wednesday produced by mid-range storm activity in our swell window.

Middleton should build to 3-4ft tomorrow afternoon, persisting around this size Wednesday before easing Thursday from 3ft. The Mid Coast is likely to ease back to 1ft, persisting Wednesday before fading Thursday morning.

Thursday morning will be clean again down South with a light morning offshore wind, giving into sea breezes ahead of a shallow onshore change.

This change will be linked to a mid-latitude frontal progression, with a couple of fun W/SW swells due Friday ahead of a stronger pulse Saturday.

The first swells for Friday will be produced by pre/post-frontal W/NW to W/SW winds pushing through our swell window.

A building trend is expected Friday, from 1ft on the Mid through the morning, up to 1-2ft into the mid-late afternoon. The South Coast won't see much size from the pre-frontal fetch, with the better swell later in the day reaching 3ft across Middleton. E/SE winds will favour the Mid Coast (with the South Coast being small and average early).

Saturday's better swell will be produced by a stronger polar front projecting up towards us on the back of the active sea state generated by the mid-latitude frontal activity.

We'll see the swell peak on Saturday with good clean 2ft sets on the Mid Coast (if not for the odd bigger one on the favourable parts of the tide), while the South Coast should see good 3-5ft sets off Middleton.

Conditions are looking great with light morning offshore breezes across both coasts ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Fresher N'ly breezes will then create good conditions Sunday with the arrival of a new SW groundswell into the afternoon. The source of this swell will be a strong polar low south-west of WA, with expectations for 3-4ft surf off Middleton at this stage.

Beyond this a deep and strong cut-off low is likely to develop south of the country and then slam into us, but more on this Wednesday.