Inconsistent swells from the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 18th May)

Best Days: Saturday onwards in Bali, similar Ments, but protected locations out of the north wind Monday

This week and next (May 20 - 26)

Bali: Smaller surf yesterday and today, with the swell expected to bottom out through tomorrow.

Into Saturday a very inconsistent new SW groundswell is due, building to 3-5ft through into the afternoon across exposed breaks, followed by a stronger increase Sunday further towards the 6ft range on the sets. The wait for these sets will be long though and of the order of 10minutes or more.

Monday should see the most size but also a bit more consistency as some mid-period energy fills in. This will fill the gaps between sets, as the swell builds a bit further towards 6-8ft. The swell should then drop through Tuesday from the 6ft+ range, slowly through the rest of the week with a couple of reinforcing S/SW swells softening the easing trend.

Looking at the winds and weaker E/SE trades should develop from tomorrow through the weekend, before increasing again from Monday. Early each morning variable winds are still expected, lasting longer the coming few mornings.

The next significant swell is due next weekend, another inconsistent long-range number, produced by a strong but distant low developing south of South Africa this evening.

While strong, the low will stay close to the polar shelf, starting in our south-western swell window but doing most of its production in our southern swell window.

The swell is due to arrive later Friday, building towards a peak Saturday in the 5-6ft+ range. Beyond this there's nothing too major showing on the charts, but we'll have another look at this next week.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: We're currently seeing small waves across the region, but the swell will pick up from Saturday with the arrival of some new long-period and inconsistent S/SW groundswells.

Exposed breaks should see inconsistent 4-5ft sets, with a further pulse Sunday upwards of 6ft into the afternoon, steadying Monday. The swell will then slowly ease through the rest of the week while tending a touch more S'ly in direction and easing back to mid-period energy.

Average SE winds today are due to back off into tomorrow, becoming variable over the weekend with a burst of gusty N'ly winds Monday as a small tropical low passes by.

After this variable winds are due to kick back in again from Tuesday.

Longer term the S/SW groundswell due next weekend in Bali should arrive Friday on our coasts, building to 4-6ft later Friday and easing from a similar size Saturday morning. More on this Tuesday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph