Indonesia/Maldives forecast January 30

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 30th January)

This week through next (Jan 31 - Feb 9)

Sunday’s good S/SW groundswell came in nicely across Indonesia with strong sets reported across the magnets. The swell eased into yesterday, further today with it due to bottom out into tomorrow.

The rest of the week looks fairly slow with some small, background S/SW energy from frontal systems firing up to the south-west of Western Australia due.

No major size is due from these swells, with various pulses mixing in later week to the 4ft range across the magnets in eastern Indonesia, smaller to the west.

Another small mid-period S/SW swell is due Monday across the region, produced by a broad but relatively weak fetch of W/SW winds to the north-east of the Heard Island region today.

Following this, there’s nothing significant at all on the cards with tropical activity and large, blocking highs due to set up across the Indian Ocean.

Therefore, while not great it’ll be worth making the most of the coming, small S/SW swells with favourable morning W/NW-NW winds for the exposed south facing breaks.

Unfortunately the Ments aren’t looking much better swell wise, with background levels of S/SW swell from later this week through early next week under winds.

In the Maldives, a S’ly groundswell due later yesterday has peaked this morning and should be starting to ease across the region, though reinforcing levels of S’ly swell are due to soften the trend over the coming days.

Tomorrow should still be moderate in size across the southern atolls thanks to S’ly groundswell from Tropical Cyclone Candice and weaker NE-N/NE winds are due to set in across all regions over the coming days before possibly picking back up again from the E/NE on the weekend.

On the weekend, the weak frontal system that’s currently north-east of the Heard Island region should produce a pulse of mid-period S’ly swell that’s due to build Saturday and peak Sunday.

Following this there’s nothing overly major on the cards so make the most of the S’ly swell pulses.

Eastern Indonesia:

Easing S’ly swell into tomorrow.

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swells from Thursday through early/mid next week to 4ft on the magnets.

Weak W/NW-NW tending W/SW winds.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small background levels of S/SW-SW swell for tomorrow afternoon through next Tuesday to 3ft+ across the exposed breaks.

Variable winds, tending SW-NW at times on the weekend and early next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Easing S’ly groundswell tomorrow, slowed by a reinforcing cyclone S’ly to 4ft+ across the southern atolls.

Smaller surf into Thursday and Friday

Small-moderate sized S’ly swell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-4ft on the southern atolls.

Moderate NE-N/NE winds over the coming days, freshening from the E/NE through the weekend.


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 30 Jan 2024 at 3:19pm

Latest notes are live.

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Tuesday, 30 Jan 2024 at 9:38pm

Here's a long shot, typically in September what's the chances of reasonable swells in Maldives. SIA air miles expire tomorrow, need to book something....

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 30 Jan 2024 at 10:18pm

@seaslug , I’ve never been to maldives but the first week in September is more times than not a huge swell in indo . I’ve scored so many times in that first week. Probably not much help I know but sometimes you’ve just gotta roll the dice .

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 1 Feb 2024 at 1:42pm

Sorry missed this Seaslug, that time of year is generally good for reliable SE trade-swells.

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Thursday, 1 Feb 2024 at 5:11pm

No worries Craig, I was messing around with a wad of KrisFlyer miles. Anyway booked a changeable return ticket to Singapore so that got rid of some. Now thinking of the southern atolls trip in April whilst the circus is in town

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 30 Jan 2024 at 10:41pm

@seaslug this article may be helpful….. and 3rd September is a new moon .

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Tuesday, 30 Jan 2024 at 11:18pm

Thanks Supafreak, I'll have a read.