Poor outlook for Indo, fun S/SE swell for the Maldives

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 21st November)

This week through next week (Nov 22 – Dec 1)

The surf is very small across the region today and will remain so tomorrow and for the rest of the forecast period with nothing of real significance.

Some small, background though very inconsistent S/SW pulses are due Thursday through Saturday but size wise it will hardly nudge over 3ft on the magnets, smaller towards the west across the Mentawais.

The reason for the lack of surf is persistent high pressure sitting under and west of Western Australia, blocking the main swell generating engine that is the Southern Ocean. Storms are only forming late in our swell window, tracking under the high and onwards towards Tasmania.

Weak local winds will provide fun windows across the exposed breaks each morning ahead of weak onshore afternoon breezes.

Looking at the Maldives and south-east trade-swell sources look minimal thanks to no real strong pressure gradient through the Indian Ocean.

There is a good S/SE swell due Tuesday though, generated by a deepening low on the western flank of the blocking high sitting under Western Australia, generating a good fetch of strong to gale-force S/SE winds.

Moderate sized surf is due to arrive later Monday but peak Tuesday, easing into the rest of the week.

Following this the outlook is very slow with the surf due to bottom out in size.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small pulse of weak S'ly swell and background and S/SW swell Thursday/Friday to 3ft across exposed south facing beaches, similar Saturday with a secondary pulse of swell.

Fading size into Sunday and tiny most of next week.

Moderate E/SE-SE winds with light, variable winds each morning. Weaker S-SW winds developing from the weekend, and into next week through the afternoons.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent background swells mixed in with S/SE windswell. Surf peaking in the 2-3ft range across south magnets Thursday through Saturday.

Moderate to fresh S/SE-SE trades across southern locations, easing later week and remaining weak next week. More variable winds to the north.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Small background levels of SE trade-swell to 2ft to occasionally 3ft across exposed breaks tomorrow and Thursday, easing later week and into the weekend. Small and to 2ft max next week.

Moderate sized S/SE swell for later Monday, peaking Tuesday to 4ft+ across the southern atolls. Slightly smaller Male.

Light, variable winds across all regions over the coming days, tending SW Friday across northern and central locations, S to the south. Variable winds on the weekend with E/NE winds across northern and central locations early next week.


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Craig Tuesday, 21 Nov 2023 at 3:14pm

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