Indonesia/Maldives forecast November 7th

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 7th November)

This week through next week (Nov 8 – 17)

Small levels of background swell are keeping the magnets active with surf and a new, inconsistent groundswell for this afternoon is due to ease tomorrow ahead of a secondary pulse for later Thursday but more so Friday morning.

Sets are unlikely to be much over 4ft on the magnets with each pulse, though winds look favourable and variable early each morning ahead of weak trades.

Later Sunday but more so Monday, our moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell is due, generated by a relatively weak but slow moving polar low that formed around the Heard Island yesterday. A fetch of strong W/SW-SW winds are being projected slowly north-east but with no gale-force bursts, we'll see the swell fall below the large range and be more mid-period in nature.

It should arrive later Sunday but peak Monday morning, then easing slowly later in the day but more so Tuesday and Wednesday. Towards the Mentawais the swell will arrive later and peak a little smaller on Monday.

Following this there's unfortunately nothing major at all on the cards.

Further to the west, small, weak levels of trade-swell are being seen thanks to generally weak winds through the Indian Ocean, with some stronger S'ly swell providing more size across the south magnets.

Both swells are due to ease back from Thursday, while the low around the Heard Island region should produce a small pulse of energy for Monday week.

The trades might start to develop again into later next week, generating swell for the following weekend/week but we'll have to review this Thursday. Otherwise this week looks the best for swell, very small next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small, inconsistent background SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW swell building today, reaching 4ft later, holding tomorrow morning.

Secondary, inconsistent S/SW swell building Thursday, peaking Friday to 4ft+.

Moderate sized + mid-period S/SW swell building late Sunday, peaking Monday morning to 5-6ft across exposed breaks. Easing swell for the rest of the week.

Light, variable winds with weak S-S/SW breezes into the afternoons this week. Afternoon winds tending S/SE-SE into the weekend and SE through next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent background S/SW swell building today, reaching 3-4ft later, holding tomorrow.

Secondary, inconsistent S/SW swell building Thursday, peaking Friday to 4ft+.

Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell arriving late Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-5ft+, easing through the rest of the week.

Moderate to fresh SE winds across southern locations, more variable to the north. Winds strengthening a little into the weekend and next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Moderate sized S'ly swell for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday to 4ft+ across the southern atolls, smaller Male.

Small levels of background SE trade-swell to 2ft.

Fading surf into the end of the week and weekend.

Light E/SE-E winds across northern and central locations, fresher to the south. Weaker E/SE-E winds to the south on Friday and early next week.


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 7 Nov 2023 at 4:11pm

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