Small outlook, with a possible swell later next weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 2nd November)

This week through next week (Nov 3 – 10)

Today's small lift in inconsistent S/SW swell is due to back off tomorrow, becoming smaller into the weekend.

As touched on in Tuesday's notes, next week remains slow with small, background levels of mid-period surf due to arrive from Tuesday, generated by weak polar fronts pushing through our far swell window.

At this stage it's hard to discern each pulse but we should see a small pulse of groundswell and mid-period energy Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday with a secondary pulse for later Thursday and more so Friday morning. None look to really push above 4ft on the magnets unfortunately.

A better swell producer looks to form around the Heard Island region on Monday, projecting a good fetch of strong SW winds towards Western Australia before weakening and continuing east out of our swell window.

A fun, moderate + sized S/SW swell is due from this source on Sunday/Monday the 12th/13th. We'll have a closer look at this in the next update Tuesday though.

Looking west to the Maldives, and slowly easing levels of SE trade-swell are due from today into the weekend thanks to slackening trades throughout the Indian Ocean.

Weak trades over the coming days will provide small to moderate levels of swell into early next week before the trades break down, leading to a further drop in size mid-late next week.

The fun background S'ly swell mentioned in the last update for Tuesday/Wednesday is on track, generated by a polar front that's currently south-east of South Africa. This is due to fill in Tuesday afternoon, holding Wednesday, then easing.

Eastern Indonesia:

Easing, small inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell into the end of the week and weekend.

Small, inconsistent background SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW swell building Tuesday, reaching 4ft later, holding Wednesday morning.

Secondary, inconsistent S/SW swell building Thursday (9th), peaking Friday (10th) to 4ft+.

Moderate sized + mid-period S/SW swell possible for Sunday afternoon (12th) and Monday (13th).

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, light and variable each morning. Trades tending more S-S/SE next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent background S/SW swell building Tuesday, reaching 3-4ft later, holding Wednesday.

Secondary, inconsistent S/SW swell building Thursday (9th), peaking Friday (10th) to 4ft+.

Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell possible for late Sunday (12th) and Monday (13th).

Moderate to fresh SE winds across southern locations, more variable to the north with a S/SE-S tendency over the coming days, more variable next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Moderate sized SE trade-swell over the coming days in the 4ft+ range across the southern atolls, easing from Monday next week.

Moderate sized S'ly swell for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday to 4ft+ across the southern atolls.

Persistent moderate to fresh E/SE-SE winds across central and southern locations, lighter to the north.


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Nov 2023 at 3:39pm

Latest notes are live.

spookypt's picture
spookypt's picture
spookypt Friday, 3 Nov 2023 at 10:42am

Did my 1st family trip to Pasta early / mid Oct. Apart from one day, the winds were mostly SE onshore for 2 weeks.

To add to the onshore doldrums the paddle inside scrap/froth on any day by a few in a larger group of our eastern cousins made for completely shit form and made the crappy conditions even more crap. You'd think they were from freeken braziL!

For a place that's got an exclusive wave (onshore puss and Sultans had 38 guys on it!) the lack of courtesy sucked and made me way more agressive and unjoyable than any place I surf here in Oz's East coast (SC/GC). Pasta was OK for a family desitination but the paddle inside, sit behind and get your overfill abso SUCKED! (Paddle around the outside ya phuckers)