XL surf this weekend with storm track going into a more subdued phase next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Fri Jan 21)

This week and next (Jan21 – Jan28)

Hawaii:  XL pulse on the weekend with a more subdued outlook next week (finally!) as the storm track shifts gears.

Solid W/NW swells in the 6-8ft range will continue to back down through Fri before an XL pulse of NW swell builds in, showing with long period forerunners and sets building to 8-10 through the a’noon with light E’ly trades. 

Swell fills in o/night and by Sat morning we’ll be looking at 15-20ft surf - maxing out inshore reefs and offering a great morning at Big Wave spots, possibly getting a but raggedy from mid-morning once moderate E/NE trades kicks in.

Size slowly drops down Sunday with elongated high pressure to the NNE of Hawaii supplying a freshening NE tradewind flow.

A major pattern change occurs next week with the intense storm track of the last month which has seen two huge cyclone gyres forming, and relentless storms charging at Hawaii breaking down (see below)

The last hurrah of the current cyclonic gyre sees  a storm track away from Japan Fri, joined by a large front out of the Kurils early in the week. The initial storm remains compact, reaching storm force before tracking NE Sat/Sun further away than previous storms. The large frontal remains broader but weaker, tracking towards Hawaii before being shunted northwards and dissipating Mon.

Together these storms supply moderate overlapping pulses of W/NW swell with the first arriving Momn and rebuilding surf into the 8ft range during the a’noon. 

Surf then hovers in the 6ft range Tues/Wed with mod E/NE trades.

Energy then takes a major nosedive into the end of next week and the weekend with size slowly ebbing away into the 3ft range and even smaller into Sat and Sun, first days of the waiting period for Pipe Masters.

The outlook is  mixed with EC model showing a storm off the Kuril Island later next week being shunted aggressively northwards towards Kamchatka and only minor W/NW swell potential in the week beginning 31/1.

GFS has a rosier outlook with a compact storm developing off Japan Thurs, becoming enlarged and storm force through the weekend before tracking N early next week.  The N’wards movement and distance from Hawaii limit swell potential but still suggest a W/NW swell early Feb.

Check back Mon for the latest update on this and have a great weekend!