Craig

Large swells continuing across Hawaii

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Mon 8th December)

Best days:  Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday

This week (Dec 9 - 12)

A very large and strong N/NW groundswell filled in yesterday and this has since eased into today from a solid 6-8ft+ this morning with light winds from the SE, and this bottomed out further through the day. A late pulse of really long-period N/NW groundswell showed across the region though and the NOAA Buoy right off Waimea registered 20s periods and a slight up kick in size.

These are the fore-runners of a large and strong N/NW groundswell due to peak tomorrow morning, generated by a deep and powerful Aleutian Low directing a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds towards Hawaii.

The North Shore should offer large 8-10ft+ sets tomorrow morning before easing off slightly into the afternoon. Winds look to be a little funky and from the west, but without much strength and becoming more variable into the afternoon.

Our larger pulses of NW groundswell are still on track for Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are being generated by a couple of vigorous cold fronts embedded in a broad and large low pressure system anchored over western Alaska, projecting a flurry of severe-gales very close to Hawaii.

The first frontal system will generated a large NW groundswell on its own merits for Wednesday but with the secondary front moving in quickly over the already active sea state, we'll see a secondary large kick in size overnight Wednesday and keeping large waves hitting the islands into Thursday.

Size wise we should see the North Shore increasing to the 15ft+ range during Wednesday afternoon and then easing steadily from a similar size Thursday morning.

Winds should be light from the E/NE Wednesday morning before fresh NE'ly breezes kick in, while Thursday looks great as fresh to strong E/NE trades develop.

Friday is probably the pick of the swell event though with an easing 8-10ft of NW groundswell and lighter E/NE trades, freshening from the NE through the day.

This weekend onwards (Dec 13 onwards)

At this stage early Saturday morning is looking to be a low point in swell activity before a very strong long-period NW groundswell arrives and builds strongly into the afternoon.

This swell will be generated by a 'bombing low' originating from Japan, with a relatively weak trough forecast to feed off a deep pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere resulting in a rapidly deepening low. With the central pressure dropping well over 24hPa in less than 24 hours, the system will generate a tight but extremely strong fetch of storm to hurricane-force W/NW winds towards Hawaii while tracking slowly north-east towards Alaska.

This will produce a large and powerful NW groundswell for Saturday afternoon kicking to 10-12ft+ across the North Shore by dark.

With the low maintaining a very strong fetch of NW winds within our swell window for 3 or so days, the swell will remain large into Sunday but easing slowly from 10-12ft while tending more N/NW in direction.

Strong E/NE trades are expected to kick in from Saturday and persist through early next week as the swell continues to ease.

Longer term we may see an XXL W/NW groundswell developing for the weekend of the 20/21st of December but more on this Tuesday.

North Shore Forecast
North Shore WAMs

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 2:06pm

Latest forecast for the North Shore above. 

Tomorrow morning winds may be a bit dicey for the Pipe contest and the swell large, but the afternoon could be called on with an easing swell and variable winds.

Next window I see for the contest is maybe late Thursday but more so Friday and then Saturday morning.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 2:21pm

Trials still have to be run so this means they need 5 days to run this comp doesn't it? Which would imply they're going to run the finals in smaller swells?

Edit. Just looked at the forecast and perhaps they may run the finals in the bigger stuff on Sunday there time. Strong trades and solid swell will make for some interesting late drops!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 2:22pm

Looks to be the case Don unless the swells due mid next week are upgraded in size.

I think it's stupid that they include the trials in the waiting period, run it before the comp, they're waisting a perfectly good competition day.

deckstrus's picture
deckstrus's picture
deckstrus commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 3:02pm

Agree, why have they included the trials in the waiting period?

Never seen this done before in any other tour event? Was trying to find an explanation but haven't yet...

Agree, its totally stupid.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 3:10pm

What I don't understand is why they didn't run the Trials on the first day. Sure, include it in the waiting period but run on Day 1 (in the same way the Trials at Australian events are all run on the day before the waiting period, regardless of the surf). 

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 3:19pm

That was today wasn't it Ben? From what I understand pipe was closeout city today due to too much sand and I think the locals forced perrow to call the trials off for the day.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 9 Dec 2014 at 3:27pm

It's the trials though, not the main event so they have to put up with whatever they get. They're lucky there was a clean swell running!

To eat into the true waiting period and cost the tour surfers a day of pumping waves, when the trials could of been done and dusted today, defies logic.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 9:45am

You should see some of the shithouse waves the Snapper and Bells Trials have been held in.

Sure, it's not ideal but if they're waiting for a perfect day of waves for the Trials within the 'CT waiting period, then they're eating into the chances of the main event being wholly run in good surf.

Just my 2c anyway.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:37am

I was more referring to the actualy surf compared to the forecast hype.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:40am

What was the forecast hype? Craig wrote yesterday (for today) "The North Shore should offer large 8-10ft+ sets tomorrow morning before easing off slightly into the afternoon." Our model had a straight 10ft for today. Seems to be pretty close all 'round.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:46am

From the limited footage I watched this morning I saw very very few 10ft waves, if any. More around 8ft IMO from what I saw. People were talking about tomorrow being unsurfable at pipe due to wash throughs. If today was forecast to be 10ft and it wasn't even breaking on 2nd reef, I'm struggling to see how tomorrow will be wash throughs from 3rd reef and unsurfable.

I guess it was the MEGA inconsistency that I'm dissappointed in. As someone else said below, not really suited to a 4 man heat in these sort of conditions.

And the waves may have been 8-10ft on the take off, but the by the time they bottom turned and pulled into the barrel, it was a lot smaller IMO......apart from the very rare double up that stood up more.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:50am

Oh, have to remember the forecast above is for the North Shore, so Sunset would be easy 10ft to so, Pipe is always a touch smaller than the magnets.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:59am

Fair enough then. So is tomorrow going to be unsurfable (3rd reef wash throughs) or not at Pipe?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 11:01am

Not sure Don, def some 2nd reefers, but we'll have to wait and see.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 8:07am

Hmmm a touch underwhelming at pipe today.

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 9:02am

I thought today was meant to be pumping - looks slow and not that big???

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 9:31am

Bloody hell it was pumping earlier. Saw some incredible waves at Pipe and Backdoor - couple of sets in the 10ft range. Kieren Perrow said in this morning's press release: "It's triple overhead and there's some really crazy barrels", which seems to be very close to within forecast specs (Pipe doesn't pick up the max swell size - it'd be bigger at other spots).

Only downer is the large amount of sand that's closing out a lot of waves. But this should shift throughout the day.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 9:59am

Been watching since the start. Super inconsistent. Is that because of the long range swell ???

Waves perfect for a two man heat not four. Jamie's heat the exception, he's got a magnet up his arse.

Interesting Garcia absolutely praised the ASP giving them thanks for having the trials in the main event window and giving 32 surfers a go.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:15am

Jamie's first heat was the one I saw this morning. So many incredible barrels! Jeez he's got that place dialed.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:18am

Yeah really inconsistent because of where the swell was generated. Saw the highlights from early and saw some bombs ridden, Dorian on a clean 10ft pit. I had easing 8-10ft+ waves.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 10:30am

I'm a bit late to the party but I hope the main event doesn't come down to waves like these. It will play straight into Gab's hands.

Also, I see that only two triallists are going to be given wildcards and didin't bow to Eddies threats.

Eddie's ancestors will be shaken to their Polynesian cores.

1173

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 11:45am
Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68 commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 11:51am

Cheers for the pics Craig. Looks pretty nice....

Pristine

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 12:43pm

And they didn't even finish the Trials!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 1:48pm

Yeah why was that? So can they then immediately go into the real deal straight after they finish the trials tomorrow? That's not gonna help me pick my fantasy surfer team if they do that at 4am our time tomorrow!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 1:51pm

Ha, I see, 1st world problems right there!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 2:09pm

Those jaws pics are amazing. Such a heavy looking beast

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 2:21pm

Thats stupid going throough the whole day and not finishing the trials. Especially now one qualifier will surf two heats in a row.

Jaws looks massive. It almost looks fun at Jaws.

I sort of agree with Don though, 6-8 with a couple of 10 foot sets. Forecast was 8 foot in morning and 10 foot in arvo. Probably splitting hairs. And if we are splitting hairs, the forecast got bang on the NW swell at 6am and then the change to NNW swell at 12pm which was what I observed.

Looks a repeat tomorrow with direction but increase in size.

Geez that was a disappointing cameo from Medina, they will be praying for him to lose, can't really speak be a hopeless ambassador for the sport

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Dec 2014 at 2:57pm

I only saw JOB's first heat (before I got into the office later) which was when most of the ten foot sets seemed to push through. Yeah I agree on the size call - seemed to back off a little from the morning, generally 6-8ft with bigger bombs every so often. Would have been 10ft+ around the traps though.