Water calibre low brings plenty of strong S swell beginning Sun

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri March 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small leftovers from the NE on Fri
  • Sizey S swell developing Sun, peaking Mon 
  • Plenty of S swell Tues with good winds
  • S/SE reinforcing pulse later Tues, holding into Wed
  • Easing swells Thurs/Fri
  • Possible NE windswell next weekend


Solid NE windswell to 4-5ft yesterday was clean early under offshore winds before winds tended SE in the a’noon. Small, clean leftovers to 1-2ft today under offshore W/NW-NW winds. 

This weekend and next week (Mar2 -Mar8) 

A trough has weakened and is dissipating in the Tasman with a modest precursor front sweeping past Tasmania, in advance of a much stronger winter-calibre system. Not much change to the weekend f/cast. 

Todays front and it’s earlier incarnation in the southern ocean brings some small S swell wrap tomorrow, in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches, under a W’ly, tending SW flow with winds tending pre-frontal N’ly late in the day.

That's sets up a much stronger front passing through on Sun. Early W winds will tend W/SW to SW later in the day possibly at strong to gale force strength. 

Models are holding steady on a winter calibre low tracking well to the south- south-east of Tasmania during Sun and traversing the far Southern Tasman through Mon. That will send a strong, long period S swell up the pipe making landfall through Mon across Eastern Tasmania. Early swell trains Sun should be mid period and build to a relatively modest in the 3-4ft range Sun a’noon with a serious muscle up expected Mon as much longer period swell trains make landfall. 

Expect surf to build into the 6ft+ range at S expose breaks Mon with fresh SW-S winds easing during the a’noon. 

Plenty of strong swell from the S on Tues with sets still to 5-6ft, and easing winds tending N’ly. In the a’noon we’ll see a new pulse of S/SE swell to 4-5ft, and this should hold into Wed morning before easing. Offshore NW to W/SW winds Wed look great.

The rest of the week sees easing swells with small leftovers on Thurs, dropping back to tiny on Fri.

We may see some NE windswell develop next weekend, possibly sizey as a high sits in the Tasman and a frontal system approaches from the W.

Lets see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!