Great NE windswell ahead this week
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 5th June)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Prominent NE windswell building Tues, sizey on Wed/Thurs
- Winds tending offshore NW on Thurs with a morning peak in size
- Tiny over the weekend with NW winds
- Small NE windswell potential for Mon/Tues
- Possible for more substantial NE windswell from mid next week
Small, long period S swells to 1-2ft held into Sat, under W winds before a SW change. A stronger pulse of S swell filled in Sun with sets to 3ft at facing beaches. Today has eased right back with tiny S swell to 1ft at S facing beaches and N’ly winds developing.
This week and next week (June5 - Jun 16)
After a much more settled, stable May the first week of June is looking like a temporary back-slide into a more La Niña-esque pattern. A huge (1035hPa) high is sitting E of Tasmania with a low pressure system straddling New Zealand. The high is directing N’ly winds off the back-side of the cell and as it drifts SE these winds will increase generating some sizey NE windswell for NETas.
In the short run expect N’ly winds to freshen through Tues and these winds should stay strong right through Wed. We should see an initial pulse of NE windswell building through tomorrow into the 3-4ft range.
The fetch looks to temporarily weaken through Wed with surf easing to 2-3ft. Models show a strong rebuild in wind-speeds through the fetch on Thurs (see below) with surf expected to peak in the 4-6ft range. Thursday is definitely the best day of the week with an approaching trough/front shifting winds N then NW through the day.
By Friday the front will have passed by and winds will shift W/NW to W with surf rapidly easing back to tiny through the day. There may be sane small 2ft leftovers on offer early.
Into the weekend and not much is on offer at this stage. Frontal activity and an approaching low in the Bight drive a mostly W/NW-NW flow across the state both days and absent any major swell sources we’re likely to see tiny waves both day.
Small surf continues into the start of next week wth models showing a minor NE fetch off the Gippsland coast generating small 1-2ft NE windswell Mon a’noon, expected to persist at similar sizes into Tues. N to NW winds should be on offer.
Mid next week looks a little more exciting, with a front pushing through, bringing offshore winds then a trough potentially deepening off the NSW coast. We may see some NE swell from the infeed into the trough through Wed or Thurs.
Models are still offering mixed messages on this outcome and confidence is low this far out. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.