Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized + mix of mid-period S'ly swell and S'ly groundswell building Mon with fresh SW tending strong S winds
• Moderate sized + mix of mid-period S'ly swell and S'ly groundswell easing Tue with gusty S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Mod sized, easing swell Wed with SW-S/SW tending SE winds
• Smaller Thu with W tending NW winds
• Small NE windswell over the weekend with N'ly winds
• Better quality E/NE groundswell on the radar for next week, Mon, peaking Tues/Wed as low drifts down from Coral Sea

Recap

Not much surf on offer over the weekend. Small surf from the E Sat in the 1-2ft range, fading on Sun with NW winds. A strong frontal progression tracking past the state has seen S swell build into the 4ft range today with fresh SW winds on offer.

This week and next week (Jul 18 - 29)

Surf comes from a wide variety of sources this week as a typical strong winter cold front gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July. This will see a very strong southwards located high pressure system set up a strong ridge along most of the Eastern seaboard, acting as an anvil for a tropical low to push against later in the week. The low forms as an upper trough across inland QLD enters the Coral Sea on Thurs, with a surface trough in the Coral Sea deepening into a surface low forming gales adjacent to the CQ/Fraser Coast, before the system moves towards the North Island over the weekend.

Surf from the strong cold front which tracked NE past Tas Sun/Mon sees surf in the 4-6ft range Tues morning with winds from the S/SW being a problem. These winds should be more WSW-SW early in the morning.

Through Wed and size eases further with sets to 4-5ft early, easing through the day and a lingering SW flow becoming light and possibly NW later in the day as high pressure moves over the state.

That will see winds tend light W to NW on Thurs with a few leftover sets to 2ft, with a last pulse of S swell and some small SE swell from a secondary low near the South Island supplying some 2-3ft sets. That should see fun beachbreaks through Thurs.

With the high moving into the Tasman over the weekend a proximate NE flow to the Island should see some fun NE windswell develop over the weekend, likely in the 2-3ft range Sat and rebuilding Sun a’noon to a similar size with mod/fresh N to NNE winds that will feel more like Summer.

The tropical low tracks into the Tasman towards New Zealand and has enough strength and width in the fetch to send some mid-period E/NE swell towards Tas next week. 

We should see some sets to 3ft build in Mon with N’ly winds.

A bigger pulse to 3-5ft fills in Tues, peaks Wed before easing and winds should be favourable W’ly. Pencil those days in!

Check back Wed for a fresh update.