Mixed bag of small S and NE swells this week with better quality swell early next week
Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Apr 4)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small leftovers Tues, with a new spike in S swell PM
- Mix of S and SE swell Wed
- Stronger SSE swell Fri with good winds
- NE windswell developing Sat, peaking Sun
- Longer period E/NE swell Mon-Wed next week with best winds Mon
Plenty of swell and wind from a deep Tasman low over the weekend with Saturday seeing surf in the 4-5ft range and fresh S’ly winds. Surf was more from the E on Sun, in the 5-6ft range with more S’ly winds. Conditions have improved markedly today with a more SW flow and surf in the 3-4ft range.
This week and next week (Apr4- Apr 15)
A weak troughy pattern lies over most of the East Coast at the moment, with the remnants of the deep Tasman low meandering off the Gippsland Coast. This weak pattern persists until Wed, when a formidable blocking pattern consisting of a large peanut-shaped high pressure system sets up a strong ridge along the entire East Coast. That will direct a deep E’ly flow onto the coast throughout the f/cast region. A depression just to the North-West of New Caledonia now has a high chance of forming a tropical cyclone. A large cradling fetch of E to SE winds south of the cyclone is better aimed at sub-tropical areas but should still produce some swell for the East Coast of Tasmania early next week.
A cold front brushing the state brings a cool SW to S flow tomorrow and a small amount of S swell through the day, in the 2ft range.
Through Wed this swell hangs in at similar levels as S’ly winds tend E/SE through the day, in response to high pressure moving just to the south of the state and setting up a weak ridge.
High pressure to the east of the state should see light winds through Thurs and Fri with a NE to E’ly bias through the a’noon, especially Friday.
An intensification of Mondays low near the South Island is expected to see a pulse of SSE swell Fri, with size in the 3-4ft range. That should see the best surf of the working week.
The high drifts into the Tasman over the weekend with increasing NE winds off the South Coast, which should see short period NE windswell develop. Up into the 3ft range on Sat with size in the 3-4ft range on Sun. Winds look to improve on Sun as they tend NW which should clean up conditions relative to a straight NE wind.
Into next week and the E’ly winds associated with the cradling fetch around the cyclone are persistent enough and drift far enough south to see Tasmania get some much better quality long period E/NE swell through Mon-Wed.
Size looks to build into the 3-4ft range Mon with excellent winds, holding at that size Tues/Wed, albeit with S’ly winds as a trough and front cross the state.
Longer term and the swell looks to persist into the middle of next week,.
Check back Wed and we’ll come in with a fresh update.