Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed December 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rare SE groundswell later Fri, extending into Xmas Day with favourable winds
• S swell likely Mon/Tues as fronts pass south of the state
• Another small S pulse likely Wed
• Small NE windswell possible New Years Eve.

Recap

Just a small signal of S swell today in the 1-2ft range with fresh SW winds, following on from tiny surf yesterday. 

This week and next week (Dec 22 - 31)

A weak troughy pattern in the Tasman, following the passage of this final cold front is expected to see just low levels of residual S swell below 1-2ft along the East Coast of Tasmania through the next couple of days. An  onshore E’ly flow sets up tomorrow before winds clock around to the N and freshen on Friday, with no real NE windswell to speak of being generated. 

S/SE groundswell Fri/Sat. A stalled low well south of New Zealand aimed severe gales back towards Tasman Sea targets over the last 24-36 hrs. While the fetch length was a concern, wind speeds should see S/SE swell in the 12-13 second period band make landfall later Fri on the East Coast in the 2-3ft range.

This swell should hold into Xmas Day, offering up potential for some good, albeit inconsistent surf with prevailing W’ly winds. 

Surf should ease back from this source for Boxing Day. 

The next cold front tied to a deep low is expected to pass Boxing Day, seeing a rising trend in S swell during the a’noon and winds tending SW to S during the day. Expect size to build into the 2-3ft range at S exposed beaches Sun, building further into Mon into the 4ft range with winds tending light and variable with a W’ly bias during the day.

Another small pulse of S swell is expected Wed, as a following frontal system, traverses the lower Tasman Sea. This is expected to be slightly smaller than Mon’s pulse with 3ft sets at S facing beaches and light winds.

Into the medium term and a strong high pressure system is expected to straddle Tasmania through next week, leading to settled weather and small surf into the New Year. A small NE fetch may develop close to New Years Eve with potential for a rideable NE windswell on that day but we’ll need to see how models pan out before making any confident calls.

Low pressure development in the Northern Tasman Sea is mostly aimed at targets to the north of Tasmania so we’ll keep monitoring that and see how that plays out.

Check back Fri for a last look at the Xmas weekend.