Craig

Inconsistent S/SW swells, larger and stronger SW groundswell later next week

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 2nd July)

Best Days: Saturday afternoon, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday onwards

This week and next week (Jul 3 – Jul 10)

Fun waves have been seen the last few days with the easing and more accessible swell under workable winds at both exposed spots and the protected reefs offshore in the trades.

The swell should continue to wane into tomorrow, with a new pulse of inconsistent S/SW groundswell due Saturday afternoon. This was generated east of Heard Island earlier this week and should pulse to an infrequent 4-6ft by dark, and hold a similar size through Sunday.

A reinforcing and less consistent pulse for Monday has been upgraded a touch, with the polar low generating it in our far swell window, performing a touch better than forecast. We should see a touch more size to 5-6ft across exposed breaks before easing into Tuesday and Wednesday.

The current fresh to strong E/SE trades should ease back through tomorrow evening and further into Saturday. A slight increase is likely Sunday and Monday before weakening further into next week.

As talked about last update, our large SW groundswell for later in the week is still on track, with a strong node of the Long Wave Trough starting to push east through the Indian Ocean.

A vigorous polar front is developing under the LWTs influence, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due to be projected up and through our south-western swell window over the coming days, to be then piggy-backed by a secondary weaker system through Sunday and Monday, more in our southern swell window.

An inconsistent but good and large long-period SW groundswell will result, arriving overnight Wednesday and building strongly through Thursday to 8-10ft at exposed breaks into the afternoon. The swell should hold a similar size Friday morning before easing slowly, buffeted by the slightly more S/SW reinforcing pulse from the second piggy-backing low.

A general easing trend should continue into next weekend and bottom out Monday the 13th as strong E/SE trades kick back in.

Longer term a slightly smaller (relative to Thursday/Friday's) and inconsistent super long-period S/SW groundswell is on the cards for the following week, generated by a polar shelf hugging and very strong frontal system, but we'll discuss this more on Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

johnfoss's picture
johnfoss's picture
johnfoss commented Monday, 6 Jul 2015 at 9:31pm

Any future thoughts on this swell coming Thursday 9th/Friday 10th?
e.g How downgraded has it become? I'm still tossing up whether to head off somewhere for it.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 10:53am

Yeah it's now looking to be more in the inconsistent 6-8ft+ range at exposed spots Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

There'll be another update through the day.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2015 at 11:28am

Perfect size and direction for Deserts too

Mick Free FIFOFOMO