TC Debbie is expected to form off the Northern Qld coast this weekend. Whilst this system is well and truly outside of SE Qld’s swell window, we may in fact see a handful of super exposed north facing locations picking up some small, rare northerly swell from the current fetch around the low's northwest quadrant.
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Our current trade swell is now starting to ease and will continue a downwards trend into Thursday and Friday.
Our primary swell generating system right now is a broad ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea. It’s expected to weaken very slowly over the coming days, and in doing so will bring about a gradual drop in surf size through the middle to latter part of the week.
It’s been an interesting, complex couple of days in weather-model land.
The weekend’s looking somewhat dynamic.
The broad trend across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld will be slowly upwards, starting from a pretty small, weak base on Tuesday morning.
Has is been worth the wait? Depends on your paddling ability and stamina I suppose.
Pick and choose your location according to your ability - there’s gonna be a lot of water moving around so it’ll be worth watching the ocean for an extra twenty minutes before you paddle out.
The key feature for the next 24 hours is a small fetch wrapping around the low, due east of the Hunter Coast this evening. This will be working on an active sea state generated by the current S’ly fetch pushing up the coast, and this will enhance wave heights into Tuesday - though mainly at south facing beaches in Northern NSW.
It’s shaping up to be a great weekend for the open beach breaks, so find an empty stretch and get stuck into some A-frame goodness!