A Coral Sea trough deepens into a small low and becomes continuous with a NSW coastal trough which deepens today and forms an ECL over the next 12-24hrs. By first light tomorrow morning and ECL or variant thereof will be positioned off the lower end of the MNC, likely due east of Seal Rocks.
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Through Mon both the coastal and Coral Sea troughs deepen with a strong and broad E/NE-NE infeed into a developing surface low (possibly some variant of ECL) late Mon o/night into Tues.
In the eastern swell window a massive high east of New Zealand and tropical depression in Tongan longitudes is reaching peak intensity and expected to send some meaningful E’ly groundswell towards the eastern seaboard, making landfall over the weekend and next week.
A retreating trade fetch gets supercharged by a developing trough and low in the South Pacific, reaching maximum intensity between Tongan and Tahitian longitudes. Despite the travel distance, we should see some quality long range E swell from this source, with some size from the south this week as the front and low traverse the Tasman.
High pressure across the interior of NSW will be moving across Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a trade fetch currently anchored by a small low sliding off to the SE over the weekend.
There is a trough in the Coral Sea with an associated cloud band which is expected to play a role in focussing Tradewinds which form up later this week on the back of a SE surge.
Model divergence remains pronounced for the outcomes from this, with GFS still suggesting some kind of trough/easterly dip and enhanced E’ly swells. The European model has a more subdued outlook with a weaker high and trade-wind band remaining further north in line with seasonal norms.
On it’s own that will see a broad E’ly fetch develop likely in the New Caledonia quadrant, extending into the South Pacific slot. GFS adds to that recipe for a round of (sizey) trade swell with a deepening trough in the Coral Sea which spawns a surface low mid week, currently modelled to track southwards into the Tasman.
The swell direction will tweak more S/SE with some quality pulses due from tomorrow through the weekend, though winds are a little dicey.
We’ll see the low move slowly out to sea later tomorrow and generate an initial pulse of local, directional S swell before moving further into the Tasman with better angled swells produced for later in the week.