There is a trough in the Coral Sea with an associated cloud band which is expected to play a role in focussing Tradewinds which form up later this week on the back of a SE surge.

On it’s own that will see a broad E’ly fetch develop likely in the New Caledonia quadrant, extending into the South Pacific slot. GFS adds to that recipe for a round of (sizey) trade swell with a deepening trough in the Coral Sea which spawns a surface low mid week, currently modelled to track southwards into the Tasman. 

We’ll see the low move slowly out to sea later tomorrow and generate an initial pulse of local, directional S swell before moving further into the Tasman with better angled swells produced for later in the week. 

With the Tasman Sea inflamed by these robust S’ly fetches we’ll see strong S’ly swells in the short term, improving in quality as size eases from the proximate fetch and better quality swell trains fill in from below and adjacent to the South Island.