How will Phillip Island fair with this swell?

Any chance of some north-east winds during that period Craig?

Cheers, could be a long weekend coming up next week!

Yeah Craig, Since you guys have put me onto the LWT, Ive been trying to correspond this with snow systems on Australia and NZ, its very interesting.
Been working in the Bass Straight all week and the strong WNW or WSW never let up, good 35knots plus, no work, bored tho but money for jam!
The strong node of the LWT down that way at the moment, is it because it is quite high and flat between the 5400 and 5500 mark?.....

Wellmon ,

a good pre-cursor to the LWT activity is watching the SAM ( Southern Anular Mode ) index , this is by far the best indicator for Aust. Alpine snow falls , and provided the The Nodes are in the right Longitudal section / pattern then the diving SAM index will see strong LWT node amplification .

All that indicates Strong fronts , great snow potential . And depending on how strong the preceding High pressure systems tend to get , ( above 1016 hp bad = too strong preceding offshores , below 1008 means lighter winds ) , and then inland moisture , sea surface temp anomalies / speed of node transition will dictate how quick the offshore will return after passage of front .
ATM , the planets seem to be aligning . And with a base of snow starting to build , surfing won't be everyones sole focus ( less surf crowds ) .....

gents, before vicco gets this run of swell is the direction o.k. to push up into the bight big enough for Josiah schmucker to get a few in on his favorite bombie for the intense wave challenge.

Udo, I think you'll find there's no requirement for waves to be surfed 'during the next 6 months' for that comp. Josiah's first entry was filmed a couple of years ago, if memory serves me well.

Regardless, there won't be any shortage of size over the coming weeks but the key will be local winds. Also, these swells will have a reasonable degree of west in 'em which will favour some locations over others. Definitely a good time to be hitting the road in SA, that's for sure,

Froth , froth ,froth. ya gettin these kids set up for more disappointment in vicco, but the tossers will tell you it pumped, cause now they can talk up nothing on the internet where as it used to be the pub.
Sorry fellas but I have seen some absolutely crap swells in vicco talked up on swellnet and backed up by random photos. I live on the coast a stones throw from the beach and classic swells that make it into bass strait are rare. Not very often does the whole coast light up as made out by the swellnet photographers, you have to do your homework to find the waves that are good.
Sorry just had to have a rant, the way you guys talk about vic. it's like false advertising.

too true Morris ' ,

i mean how many shots , of how many angles do ya wanna see of average winki .......

No worries Shaun. You have a nice lie down. There's nothing to see here at all, just small waves and onshore winds.

The truth be, big waves and onshore winds.
Then when it does turn offshore and straightens the swell up, your looking at 20 to 30 min. waits between sets, If the waves have any size to them it is usually very raw and sectiony.
Seriously, swellnet wotd is turning into a bit of a travel ad.

Cheers Craig and Southy for some good Met knowledge.

Appreciate and recognise the full worth.

Yeah Craig the link you gave me, is the same one I've been following since your LWT article.
I see what you mean with the node being right under the Bight till next friday.
Cheers

I agree shaun these solid swells are pretty much useless in much of victoria, bar a few protected pockets, and the Point Leo area and off course the West Coast.

Coming from Phillip island, id much rather a cycle of north east winds and head high long period ground swell.

Shaun's sold me, I love big and onshore, raw and long waits. I'm coming down to make some more investigations. Last time I shot down was the same weekend as Craig. Postcard stuff

http://www.swellnet.com.au/galleries/3099-flying-on-a-forecast

Goofy & Indo ....

all is not lost , there maybe a day without W in the forecast . Late/ mid next week , and although winds shall be favourable that day the Swell shall be raw and the options few and far between with abundance being the problem . Aim for the stars ......

Wellymon ,

A link you may find handy to guide you to the Snow and Protected corners of this wind blown state .

The SAM or AAO ( Antarctic Oscilation )
" www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_...";

Mickfree ,
postcards it shall not be , for the light shall be slight and the winds a' wet !

Any doctors on swellnet that can excuse me from work for a few days next week? the tried and tested 'bout of gastro' is probably wearing thin. its weeks like this I miss working for myself... damn economy!...can anyone on swellnet fix this? or maybe rig tattslotto, yeh that'll do-I'll go halves

En route Southy, I will send you a postcard from the 12 apostles. Got to be some waves down there surely....the Hume highway is much better than it used to be. Looking forward to trying to paddle the big betha again.

Incoming. Kangeroo buoy now at 5.5m 18 sec. Recorded max 10m.

Last night on dark it was 1 ft. no sign of incoming swell and nepean buoy was 4m@13 this morning it is 3@14 but I'm going for a dawnee anyway as this is victoria, you nevervever know if ya nevernever go.

Really Shaun? I was watching our surfcams early afternoon and it was already building (2ft TQ, 3ft 13th) and the buoy data suggested it continued to build for the rest of the day.

Either way, it looks pretty tasty this morning. Hope you got some.

The Pt Nepean Wave Buoy had a peak in height over night around 3.5 M , BUT the swell period just jumped up to 18 Secs about an hour ago . So it now seems to be a race of the Swell height peak ( usually one or two seconds lower than period peak ) and the Westerly winds . Seems slight N on the cams over that way , but there is definitely a stronger NW towards SA .

PS . Thanks for the whale watching show put on by your 13th Beach Surf cam this morning Ben .
Almost choked on my toast .

Whales at 13th? Jeez, that's awesome. I've only ever seen them on our Middleton cam before.

I surfed a very exposed piece of coast this morning and it was one wave sets every 30 to 40 minutes with a howling offshore, hardly the conditions some of you have been talking up, it's just a below average winters day, I'm not talking the [place down I'm just amazed how the guys don't live here talk it up, I mean Mickfree is jumping in a car to drive down to surf 2 mile, good luck on that one mate. If it isn't onshore it will howl offshore, either way it's unridable, it's a fickle coast.
Ben you should go down to the beach sometime, whales go by all the time.

Jeez, you're hard to please Shaun. Offshore winds and solid swells right along the coast today, and you're still not happy. Next minute you'll be blaming us for the cold water and your shitty wax job.

By the way, did you actually read the forecast? Craig explicitly wrote "Expect long waits between sets". Whaddya think that means? It's not a tennis outlook.

Southey, that you link you posted, did not nothing.

404 not found?...

Take out the '&quot' at the end of the URL and it'll work fine.

Classic, thanks Ben, computer wiz

Not like old dummy Welly?

Yeah Ive come across that site the other day, Interesting stuff for me, always learning.

Cheers

Well Ben, my whole gripe was that 90% of the time you post pitures of Vicco and make out like it is pumping, but if you go through all those pics you will see line up shots of winki/bells/cathederal with empty waves and guys getting caught inside, because that was the only big set to come through for an hour.If that was the size wave that came through all day at winki there would be at least 3 on each wave with a handfull lining up to burn them, hardly postcard perfect more slapstick comedy.
You and blokes like Mick-free think I'm seem to think I'm some paranoid grumpy prick trying to discourage anyone from coming here, well I'm just pointing out that this coast is different to the east coast where 10 0r 11 sec. swell is good, for it to be good down here you'll need 14 to 16 sec. and to get those days worth frothing over it's 18 to 20 sec. for most of the day.
Your from South Aus. Ben, you would be well aware how easy it would be to take a few pics of an average day of the s.e. coast and say you scored, but the reality of scoring when the forecast is perfect has made grown men cry.
In summary, tell the truth ya bastards.

A quick scout around the internet last night:

Cahill Bell-Warren wrote: "Today's @torquayboardridersclub event was incredible.... Pumping Bowl and Rincon all day."

Elliot Gray (13th Beach BR President, photog) wrote: "Who had a #epic day! Ended with a bang for a few of us! #pumping".

Here's a photo from Elliot's Sunday arvo session. Looks absolutely shocking. http://swllnt.com/16EpfJY

Nah, I'll listen to grumpy Shaun on the internet instead.

Haha Shaun do you think the punters are interested in seeing 3ft waves at Bells with everyone just sitting in the bowl on a 6ft day? I think not.

A photo tells a thousand lies mate, just enjoy a good shot.

P.S - 13th was insane yesterday despite the heavy crew on it.

Nice looking solid swell and im sure the west coast was pumping, but Phillip Island apart from maybe one spot, everywhere was dogs balls, sadly we just don't have the quality reefs that hold or are any good in those kind of swells with those winds and all these swells generally do is screw our banks up.

A lot of guys from here actually drive over to winkki for these solid swells with NW-W west winds

All that said for a lot of the time/year when the west coast guys are searching for a decent size wave or having to drive hours for a surf further west or its onshore, we get waves..so all is not lost, generally for most of the year we get the consistency while they get the quality.

I guess my point of my few post is not all of Vicco is good in these swells with these winds.

Yeah eamonn, just trying to point out to the punters that it isn't really worth jumping on a plane for due to the ficklness of the coast. As a Victorian you would know, yep I imagine beacon would have been good.

Really indo, I thought it would be the right size for a couple of places, like where I live there is no particular time of the year that is best, I look forward to summer and early autumn, better winds and tides.

13th was the pick early. To much west in swell for south of Torquay.. To much nth in wind for bells/winkki and about 4 million donkey's. I give it a 6 but surfed for 6hrs

When I try and do a hit and run the final selling point are the winds. Especially when going to Surf Coast. You can work with different spots if you have the offshore, but you are limited with a shitty wind. It only focuses the crowds to the places that work. The offshores all week (and the fact that East coast was looking poor) gave the greenlight. Plus lately it seems all the good days are in the weekends in Vicco lately. Small crew on it early this morning and slowly built

Heard 13th was cooking so checked it early today for a small window today but the wind had already pulled around to the West. Yesterday was inconsistent for sure but there were windows where the crowds were down. Spoke to Tom (legend old bloke) who surfed it midday and only 30 at Winki. Worst Sunday arvo crowd at Winki because of the comp at Bells with 50 out there towards dark but still got a couple with a few new friends coming for a ride. Defintely postcards with the sun out in the arvo.

Today has rolled in with super consistent waves morning its bigger and was kegging on the low at lowers. It looks like that for the rest of the week, with bigger pulse Wednesday...

Shaun was right though about it raw down South. It was huge, windy, big sharks, hectic hold downs and tourists taking photos. Wouldn't go back especially after seeing the fb photo of 13th. Should have gone there.

Enjoying the weather Mick?

Not sure what you are on about Shaun. Westernport has had some solid days this Winter and they have fallen on weekends. Although it's been bloody crowded up to last weekend, when finally the cold has driven people out (and possibly to the snow?). Off shores have been strong, though.

@ Morris its not too bad, suns out whenever we have surfed so pretty good. Locals saying water is warm haha 14 degrees. Was pretty fractured this morning at Winki but came good with the offshore. Inconsistent though but fun. Enjoying the good vibes in the water too. Looks like Monday next week is the peak - any agreement with the models Craig?

Not sure what your on about gayin007, there's no waves in westernport.

Yeah Craig lot's of snow, cocaine has always been a problem in Torquay.

Yes , Shaun . correct ..... Gav , the words SOLID and WP most definitely DON'T belong in the same sentence .

Next Monday , it might be an option , but only coz the other decent option is five hours from it one direction and two in the lesser .

Shauno , you said that Morris was the brains in your operation . Does that make you the rear " sniffer dog ", in which case you'd have a nose for Torcool's Snowzone .?!!

Where is Morris , he onto something Mick wants ?
Your nose might be whiter than Charlie Murphy / Rick James combined but I reckon Morris's nose is Black .

Craig , How was GFS's outlook last night , had the thing stallin for three days , centred slightly south west of Tassie .... Could be more " evacuations " !!!

Southy, you've figured out why I have my nose in the box. Morris's nose is brown.

Craig/Southey is it too early to put a size on Monday and Tuesday? And Winds?

sweet

Like Wayne Lynch said in his interview.
You can't light fires now and stand around them all day talking and watching the swell the wind etc.

Goof ,

I'm convinced you may need a Trip Guide next Monday or Tuesday . So before i see the " Models " get it on with each other/align/merge , ( not the mental picture everyone is thinking ) , i'll go out on a limb and say unique spots may come into play , WP one of them .

Two natural indicators are looking the goods .

( Wayne doesn't need to stand round fires , and observe the Ocean . The clouds tell the story ;-)!!! right ?! and you can see them from far away from the coast
1. the clouds are moving fast , often slightly obtuse to sea level synoptic winds ( supporting upper low = long wave trough node / upper low and high thickness readings [ read: low level snow/ not the torcool type] )
2. the link i showed above has the AAO nearing its lowest point of the year ( and double dipping ) , but more importantly is the time span of its decline from the positive levels . Like ENSO , i tend to read into the cumulative trends more so on top of the actual readings like the >3mths accumulative SOI as opposed to say : the 5 day running mean .
In other words this is the third and longest decline into the lowest figure this year . With a LWT Node present nearby .

So shall we say Craig its best not to get Morris & Shaun's noses out of joint , otherwise the two of em' might wanna gift us a Black eye or two . Now to find my booties and hood , + the 4wd chariot may need a service too !
Lastly at the peak of this system ( & the point where the AAO is forecast to double dip then rise ) we are waxing up until a full moon mid next week , then its no surprise that the models have chopped and changed the last few days , BOM/EC and GFS diverge from Sunday .
But interestingly they seem to Mirror each other again with GFS's Monday / Tuesday looking extremely similar BOM's wednesday and perhaps thursday ....... any case Mick , if your a BOM supporter / aligned you maybe quitting ya job to see the end of this swell out ......
Any case won't be many postcards , perhaps alot of wind burn / surfers ear . Atleast you maybe still in town for the Footy finals !!!!

Gee you fellas put a lot energy into into making a call on the surf, if I had to do that I'd just fall over in a heap, luckily for me I'm not smart enough to work out what the Global Financial Surf has to with Sunday blah blah blah.......
Welly where I live we stand around fires on the beach all the time, sometimes for days at a time, it still happens. Now we all have iphones we don't have to rush home to the computer.
Take what surf legends in general have to say with a grain of salt, their perception of reality is quite different to us mere mortals.
Southy, why don't you just move you and the family down the coast, your back would be a heap better if you walked down the street to check the surf instead of sitting for hours at a computer theorizing what it will be like, you may know better than me what the waves are going to be like next Monday. But in 1/2 an hour I will know exactly where to go for the best surf and be there within 15 minutes.

God your a grumpy old man/mutt Shaun

I'm actually quite happy goofyfoot, I did just write out a rather long winded explanation but the computer crashed so you have been saved from what you would see as a rant from a grumpy old man.
P.S. Surfs shit

I know, I'm looking at it...

through your windscreen or computer screen goofy.

Job site pal. 2 minute dve from my joint, which is a 10 minute walk to the surf. Close enough for you?

Just curious, now whose a grumpy little bugger.:)

I'm a grumpy big bugger.

Theres no surf here, flat winter blues and I have time off.

Over the chainsaw, cutting, hauling up, placing down, back down , back up, ohh well firewood for the next 2 years, some land cleared and a fucking grumpy " Sore Back "?
Ha ha.

Just ask anyone who is grumpy, "Do you have a sore back".

hahahha shauno . unfortunately its not that simple ....
For me anyway , there was a time when i left everything behind .
But its family and extended family that has me here now .....
My work is anchored here , and for the moment its paramount .
It does tie in with all this shit that i dribble ... but enough of that

shaun , some people i know are jealous of me . but funnily enough i'm jealous of you ....
vicious circle ay !!
my back is not an excuse , when its my time to go i don't pull back ( thats why the things fucked in teh first place . what it does do is make it hard to keep fit .

anyway , like wellymon . I'm makin hay while the wind blows , but any day i can target . unfortunately its rare i can target more than one at a time .....

Cheer up fellas , there should be something for everyone within the next two weeks . ( even isolated beachies )
shauno , its only a perception . some people like gambling on footy , or doing " fantasy surfer ' or whatever the fuck that is . me i like to do my homework to score . not just in Australia .

Hi Shaun and Craig. Fair enough, Westernport's version of 'solid' doesn't compare to outside the heads and the West Coast in size. The point I'm trying to make is I've had a better than usual May through August period. Consistent larger swells with off shores, supporting Craig's opening paragraph. Westernport doesn't deliver unless the ocean swell is large.

Do you reckon the swell has been better than usual, I think the winds have been good but the swell of bad quality. Just about the whole of may wee got belted by easterleys, I got my best surfs of the past year from sept. till april, it must have been good on the beachies on the east coast over that period.

Shaun you are on the money but you don't stand a chance getting your point accepted. The foto of 13th from facebook was late in the day on Sunday (last hour of sunlight) wind and crowds had dropped off...

Swell kicked earlier than forecasted today. Drove down the Ocean road as beaches had good ones yesterday but ended up turning around. There are good lines in between the squalls on the reefs. Hail and 50 km hour winds sent me in. Hungry pack out today though on some good ones. I googlemap Western Port - seriously is it in the harbour?

Don't go to Western Port, it's shithouse..

Marbles, how about Elliot and CBW's claims of 'pumping waves' on Sunday too? Add in Mick's reports in the comments here, and Ed Sloane's magical photos, and Sunday came in with more positive reports than negative ones.

But hey, it's hard to please everyone. And as Craig said above, the article was more about the extended run of waves rather than 'epic swell after epic swell'.

I'm not wanting to be pleased. Just saying the wind backed off after 4pm and that's when the foto was taken at beacon.

Haha, sorry craig I was not actually referring to your article, I had forgotten it was even there, my memories not what it was, what was it about? I've just been prattling on as usual having a yak, talking about the weather. These forums are great, in real life people just walk away when I talk to them for any longer than 3 minutes and I've been banned from the local pub, luckily they stopped hitting me when they realized that wont shut me up. I must still be on topic though as young benny hasn't pulled me up on that yet.

was pretty glassy Sunday arvo, wish that was the case for today...

Agree with Ben, some good waves but far from epic. I mean the photos make it look great. Got a killer 13th Beach pull up photo today, but was the only wave in 30minutes in the same spot

Ben ,

Eliot and CBW have got to be kidding themselves or just plainly trying to pump up their own tires and get attention . Life as a Pro in Vicco must be hard though , not many postcard days .! ay Mick F ....

Maybe ask Dasha Wilcox , he's got an eye for when its good . Every time i show interest there ( not often ) i'm usually dueling with him for some 'cylinders ' action . Sure Beacon's fun , but really just peaks . Its when the size makes beacon borderline unridable that i'd bother . On the right ones they'll connect through two peaks , i once saw Rasta ( David ) nearly connect three sections , all locked in the Pit .

But seriously though the place is fucked with anything over 10 kts on it , unlike much of Vicco ( cept maybe Warnambool - Pt Fairy and certain places that cop the " Otway effect " ). There's no protection from strong offshores which is the norm elsewhere .

I reckon Heath Joske has the right idea . Judging by the photo's i saw the other day . Just charge , then let others do ya PR work by word of mouth .

Righto Southy I will send you the link to a large postcard on Friday. You can make up your own mind. Have to wait until I am out of the state first for safety. Seriously though the postcards will be from the main tourist destinations as I want to come back again for a bit more Victorian love in the future.

Blue rocks looked good this morning - but it seemed pretty fat. Does it get hollow?

What is blue rocks?
Beacons a funny place to surf Mick,it's never been uncrowded you can be having a bugger of a day, can't buy a wave for a couple of hours and then bang bang bang you'll get 3 smokers in as many minutes and it's a great place again, but the best and most fickle wave lurks in the background.
Got fond memories of that stretch of beach, got my first real barrel there.

don't you mean Poo Rocks ? Nah, doesn't get hollow, but has been the source of many a middle ear, nose or throat infection.

Got to go home on the weekend Mick-free? If so can I get a lift? Looking at ECG long trough forcast and TCBCF pressure nodes with the extreme gale force wind warnings with tidal uplifting, it would seem there is a 75% chance of me being extremely anxious and scared on Sunday going into Monday.

Well with the swell peaking on Sunday night @45,267 Kilo Joules I think I have every right to be nervous.

love ya work shaun ,

might be bout time i came and visited , Sunday Roast ????
i reckon me and Morris will get on like a house on fire .
Mick forget Friday , it was looking okay in last weeks forecast , but perhaps before then will be better .
Shaun , i am serious . Look out for a lunatic in souped up Land Rover, early next week . That is if i can shake a ripper cold/flu .

Look out Stu, Southy's trying to turn swell net into an online dating site for surfing. You forget Southy, I don't exist in the real world, though every one who had an imaginary friend knows Morris.
Early Monday might be the one, before the wind and with the swell backing off.

Classic shaun

Look out for the land rover at the swingers club!

It sounds pretty good down that ways, least you guys are fair dinkum.

Oh i know , Shaun you do exist . robots aren't that clever .....
I always had my reservations about ol' Morris though , he always seemd too good to be true .
The Land rover was an attempt to have Street cred , in that Neck of the woods .
Doesn't Wayne , still own one .?
To borrow a line from Austin Powers , " It's not Mine " .....
Late today would of been okay somewhere , I agree with the Monday call .
Wellymon , are you saying you somewhere( Swingers) about said coast that we don't ?
You keep that spot X to yaself , besides thats what PM's are for , arn't they Stu ? ..... ?
as far as i know no-one uses them , thats why their is so much dribble in these walls ......

You know that wave down there southey!

Its hollow as.:)

Southey, what is the "otway" effect?

Cheers

Reeso , from what i understand , its a lee wave .
The gradual rise on the Northern & Western side up and until the peak of the Otway ranges creates orographic lift , then the subsequent : sharp down hill on the coastal sides Sth and East of the ridge experiences the return action where the typical synoptic ( sea level ) winds are intensified into the downwind valleys running down from the ridge of the range . I believe similar happens near Wollongong .
I'm sure higher upper atmosphere wind speeds also get dragged down by the lifted air which inturn delfects down and drags down some higher air that is travelling faster .
For instance Sth of Anglesea and West of Pt Campbell , depending on wind direction and upper atmosphere conditions the winds will can be upto 20 kts stronger than elsewhere . Again it depends on wind direction and and the downslope or valleys tunneling the effect even worse .
I tried to keep it short , but its complex . I'm not on my own , I've heard other " generally older guys " talk about it . Anyway I'm sure this is all old news to many . ( But someone like Ben [ ie classically trained ] would be able to give a better analysis )

sorry Shaun just read your message, got into Sydney an hour ago...

Bad luck Mick as the wave you have been chasing would have been on the card today.

Southey, here's your postcard

http://www.saltmotion.com/2013/08/16/southern-special-part-one.html

Shaun, yeah she's pretty windy but

Geez , Mick .

Thats not a Postcard , its a Puff peace Catalogue ......

I must commend the effort made , but you must excuse me for all the Cliche's ....
Old hat for many down here , just like you guys not flinching when you see women in Bathers on the Beach up on the East Coast .
Deadset most Victorian Males just stop stare and Point ....

In your case a Camera ....

Looks like you missed the 50 year storm though , " Shauns' gonna Paddle to New Zealand " ...
the rest of us have already been Blown there .

How many effing photos of fat/wally rights do we have to see come out of vicco?? Surely there Is people taking pics of other waves in this state! Its not the only placed that gets waves!!Fuuuuck

Must say Mick, I was a bit disappointed to see your sufertorial as I thought you were just a young fella off poking your nose down every dead end road looking for the pot of gold, like many of us have done over the ages.
Wanna know something Mick, real surfers don't end up getting many good photos because they're to busy pulling on their wetsuits and waxing up.

Thought you were a bit of a tool when you were giving updates of your Easter trip, looking for waves with your 9 foot gun or whatever, but then I thought na your just a young lad with out for a bit of adventure , but being a modern lad you have a bit of the look at me about you. But no, your not a real surfer cause you found time to pull the camera out in fading light when the wind dropped, but with photos priced between $85 and $2500 I'm surprised you bothered with any actual surfing. I am glad I fought off the urge to PM you to give you a few hints on where you could get quality waves on the quiet, thanks for the little reminder about stepping over the little internet line.

Agree with you Southy. Stare point and grunt.

Goofy, they don't need to know about the short close out lefts.

I may be showing my age but it used to be just about going surfing I dont get this whole document everything and post it on the net generation but each to their own I guess.

Packing the car for a road trip used to be easy boards, food, beer and a big bag of weed the later often going along way with hostile locals, packing a camera tends to do the opposite. In hindsight maybe we should have had a camera cause i cant remember a thing about those trips other than good times haha.

Back to the topic of this swell i heard on the local abc radio yesterday morn the red bull guys are on route to tassie chasing this one down the marrwah area. Those fellas are definately on a different trip most surfers would be heading in the opposite direction trying to get away from that storm. Thats a wild bit of Aus even on a nice day let alone when its forecast onshores above 50 knots and seas over 10m.

Actually redbeard, the Red Bull project is a windsurfing competition. Won't be much surf happening in Marrawah under these conditions - better waves along the North Coast!

http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/1709688/marrawah-in-the-eye-of-storm...

ah thanks ben i only caught part of the interview the guy was talking jetskis and big waves chasing storms etc i assumed it was ross and co i would hate to be hanging off a winsurfer in the winds he was talking about those guys are mad.

being the optimist that I am, I can't see the waves being that good over the next few days, the nodes are not aligning. The wind is driving me batty.

hey yous mexicans, here's one for yous, I reckon it might be yous era, and twang a chord in yous hearts...

love yous... sid xxox.

but wait, there's more...

love yous .

use your imagination Shaun .....

" UNIQUE ...... New York " ....

I can think of about two or three OPTIONS . One is interstate .....

Southey all the swell so far has been extreme west swell and that is the forecast for the one coming and the at the moment buoys back that up, the option closer to home will not happen, but will probably go for the drive anyway.
Your cryptic clues go way over my head.

Yeah it's very west through today (and there'll be a rapid increase in very large westerly swell tonight as well) but will swing more southwest tomorrow behind the low.

Nothing Cryptic Shaun .

Just with this Combo ( Extremely large West ) , it'll be unique spots only . And yes as Craig hinted at early on , and now the system doesn't look to stall at all . So kinda rules out any type of residual / maintained SW swell to follow . So not much for Morris to Sniff out . Use your imagination , means just that ( unfortunately for you ) WOW will have the problem of a short wave period = less refraction . Maybe you could stay warm with a Blanket , and pray no one switches Light outs in crayfish country .
My thought trains may have a better period and lie a long Walk sth east , or far more involved may involve Bikies , but that option would have departed with an earlier time schedule needed . Either way for insurance I'll run a recon mission this arvo with a board , just incase .
Your best bet is to wait till the wind switch and pray there's still enough energy in the Water to be manipulated by it . Late Monday or Early Tues , but it looks to be dropping too quick .
Not Classic , just Unique .

Went for a drive yesterday down west coast, missus had never been to Lorne and had been nagging for me to take her there, had been a while since i had been down the west coast, was quite a reminder how much better the waves are down that way in winter compared to the Island, been a while since ive seen a wave with speed walls like winki rather than fatness we mostly get

Yeah there was a few crew surfing, but so so many options in recent kind of conditions, also really noticed how the swell really straightens up as it wraps in to that coast and cleans up with the north westerlys, while down here even if a spots offshore in W-NW the swell is still lumpy from being knocked around offshore.

Still no sign of the big swell. Just sat at Rye for about 20mins and there was a couple of wind blown 6 ft sets but no massive bombs.. Nearly got blown to tassie though!

Gidday its only just getting south in it here. But the wind is still screaming westerly here, going around to the south at Nullabor.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65030.shtml

Goof , about an hour ago Cape Grim
in NW tassie ramped up to 85 kt westerly's .
As uplift has hinted at she's pure west ,
And even Rye won't see much when it's that
Direct west . As soon as the wind gets any S in it
= <270 deg . Then you'll see something there
and elsewhere in Nthn bass straight .
In saying that I've only sen one solid set where
I am ..... It's still coming . And that's good , the later
the peak the better ( closer to dawn tomorrow
For the swell peak ) .
The other thing about MP beaches , is with any
Sort of onshore they tend to mask the size in
excessively strong winds . Where Flinders for
instance gives a better indication .!
Bring on tomorrow .
as

Yep hard to tell when it's that windy and cross-shore, almost kinda blows the top of the swell away. Tomorrow should be interesting... You west or east? Or is that to much to give away haha??

Sth ...... Hahaha
Watching the slowest container
ship I've ever Seen , heading into it !
M & S will report on west .

PS . How goods this full moon .
Might go for a Paddle !!!

Geee ,

Cape Sorell 16 M max and still rising , 10M significant , 14-15 sec's ..........
Cape du couedic topped out at 3Pm 15 M max , 8 M sig. peaked @ 18 sec's ......

Its gonna keep gettin Bigger , as theoretically Sorell should peak around 18 sec like SA .
Maybe halfway between now and dawn ....

SIK .

Looking terrible on the Surf Coast this morning. http://swllnt.com/13KXddF

That was short !

I've been watching the Pt. Nepean Wave Boy readings. It peaked at just under 5 metres just before 5.00am this morning and now it's down to around 3.5. Is that tide influenced? I also looked at the Westernport cameras (Trigger Bros web site) at dawn and just now. It's gone from pretty big (by Westernport standards) back to an 'average good size day'. So is it all over now?

Worth pointing out that surf size in Western Port will affected by the outgoing tide (which is happening now), so what you're seeing on the cams there - especially as Trigger's cams are only random one-minute snapshots - won't necessarily reflect the true state of the regional swell trend.

Thanks Craig / Ben. Yep, it's 6.50 pm and I've just finished my day's work, wishing I was down there first thing. As you said there seems to be a small upward turn with the wave buoy over the last couple of hours, however the cameras are still showing pretty ordinary size now, despite an incoming tide. Just to make things worse, it looks like it's just turned horribly onshore as well. BTW, I tend to concentrate on the "2nd Reef" camera, as it gives a good view down the coast, which can allow for the 1 minute factor. Luv what you do with Swellnet - keep it up!

Morris & Shaun .

Worthwhile ?

Up here its gone NE + or - <=360deg flat with a bit of south fading to the west south north east swell?

Give ya a hint fellas

Jupiters Casino? helicopter to work?

Way to cold to go outside, let alone surf. Yep wrapped myself in a blanket:).

the large swells thru the bight have uncovered the 'ethel wreck' on the southern yorke peninsula, pic on the abc south aust site, south oz boys when was it last visible like this ?

At the end of most winters the Ethel Wreck will be fully exposed. Its amazing how dynamic that beach is. We often go down there after huge winter swells and not a grain of sand can remain, just rocks and bits of wreckage. Then a few short months later the giant rocks, ledges and drop-offs just disappear as the sand returns. And often during this movement really good banks will form, sometimes just for a few days. You just have to be there!

@craig, yeah Pondie is really affected by sand movement. In winter its nowhere near as good a wave, even with a rare offshore wind.
Most people blame the higher winter tides that causes backwash to ruin the wave, but the sand plays a big part too as it forms a steeper angle on the beach. This makes the backwash even worse no matter how low the tide is.
I think the sand also fills up the left in winter and makes it crumble, and the right gets a hole that makes it short and fat. That's why I hardly even look there in winter!

I have been surfing at Yorkes for 35 years and lived for 11 years in MB in recent times. Pondie is not the same wave it was. My opinion is that since the boardwalk and infrastructure has been built on the dune it has held a lot of the sand movement in place, which it was obviously designed to do. In the past surfers and tourists walked all over the dune setup and erosion was evident. However this has had a detrimental effect on the break with the beach being very steep most of the time now as the sand is setting in place. The smaller swells invariably have backwash now. A cracking five foot swell will still see great fun waves but many smaller days are not worth the drive.

Gettin' rid of the dunny was the stupidest NP idea ever..first question they asked was 'do you reckon people will shit in the dunes now?' derrr??!!
Just get rid of the whole boardwalk..at least then the annoying longboarders would have to lump their big piece of shit boards through the dunes..would cut the crowd down to bugga all..be fuckn great!!
But that aside I have raised the issue before..what effect will tampering with the coastline have on the waves around yk's..will replanting vegetation, creating paths for people to walk on be detrimental to the waves of the area or will it make them better.? I do see merit in ksurfs points.

Didn't they get rid of the dunny cause it was full and therefore a potential hazard? Guess they couldn't pump it out like a septic due to the distance from the carpark to the boardwalk?

Fascinating stuff ksurf.

I always presumed the whole idea of a dune viewing platform (and/or any other kind of similar structure anywhere else) was to return 'damaged' dunes to something closer to their original state.

So, can I wildly speculate that:

(1) the original theory doesn't actually work, or

(2) Pondi in its native state actually suffers from backwash problems, but the extensive dune-trampling over the last thirty years (before the boardwalk went in) actually benefited the surf.... !?!

If so, let's get tramplin'!

Cant comment on the break as never been there, but on the topic of dunes stabilisation.

Did you know marram grass, is an introduced species from europe? (google it)

And the stuff is pretty much everywhere along Australia's coast, so much of our dunes system in Australia are not in there true natural state.

Yes there are native plants and grasses that stabilise our dunes, but generally are not as aggressive and weed like as marram grass.

Once a dune gets covered in the stuff a lot of the time this is when you get steep beach build up = backwash.

Tricky stuff ! Dunes are the absolute definition of geological instability so what is natural and what is not is difficult to unravel. Even worse is trying to develop a strategy that will get them to behave in the way you want. Along the east coast many efforts at dune stabilisation have created a linear foredune rather than the sculpted forms that are more typical of undisturbed systems. I have heard older surfers maintain that the beachbreaks were much better in the 50s and it has all been downhill since then. Things have definitely changed on many of Sydney's northern beaches, mostly for the worse.

Excuse me Ben, we're going a bit off topic here aren't we. Not that I mind, but I know from past threads that it annoys you. Just thought you would like me to point that out.

Thanks Shaun.

Back on Topic ...

I think this run of swell is far from over ( come back Mick , we miss you NOT ) .....

I just remembered this morning a Convo' i had with a SAM / AAO Guru a while back ( the techo' jargon i was dribbling the other week which has a connection or causal forecast to/ of the LWT .

Anyway basicly he was of the opininion that the peak in Nodal activiity usually carried on or lingered up to 2 weeks after the AAO bottomed out . And Snow wise it almost certainly meant that the peak or largest front would come closer to the end of the Period ....

Maybe best you stay indoors Shaun , there could be a more southerly blast that might need you to have excess energy for in for the forseeable future ! ;-)

Don't want to drag the thread off topic again, but missed the latest threads, been in Thredbo getting some snow fix this week.

Southey,Shaun, yeah look I hope I didn't offend you. We surfed the spots we searched out but certainly didn't post any of them, rather sticking to the gravy train for images that is Winki Bells. It was Joel's business Saltmotion and the scenic shots sunrise Great Ocean Road are the shots he will sell in his Gallery, but the guy loves to surf. I just ride, none of the shots are of me and Joel's not on the exposure net. BTW Surfing shots don't sell. A sunrise over the Apostles is more likely to bring in the cash. However we both use our businesses as a legitimate write off to chase down swells.

@ Shaun, Yeah its bit of expermientation for me with this whole Forum thing, I have never done it before, so I appreciate your comment regarding the April trip south. I mean I tried to get friends to come with me but not many are really interested in jumping of cliffs and chasing down big waves and as a solo thing being out the back on your own can be foolhardy as I found out in that particular session earlier this year. Also through the forum you often meet generous people like yourkessurfer. I'm interested in personal experiences that are given on these threads, but I guess it is a fine line, with regard to what to post.

Looking at it, be worth a hit and run to SA looks perfect for Monday Tuesday.

I'm interested how good Monday morning was with offshores in the morning on Surf Coast.

Let's go off topic again, it's way more fun. Hit & Run missions, aren't they creating aggro. Personally I am very old school, if I see a place I want to surf I will go there 1 to 3 months just to give me a good chance to get that magic session and to take the whole place in and maybe contribute something or just read a book for a few days waiting for the swell.
Hit & run missions are often made by people with not much time, they try hard not to be greedy but due to time constraints they just can't help themselves. And they have no idea how the local surfers feel about anything because they have not got the time to find out.
Nodals, is that another word for hemorrhoids.

Haha off topic. Stu how do you set up a new thread? Hit and run missions!