La Niña: A Trio Of Dips

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

La Niña three-peat.

Someone's got to be taking the piss? Surely.

While the La Niña signal has started to weaken throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean thanks to the eastward spread and upwelling of warm sub-surface water, it's not over yet. We've got an interesting and dynamic outlook for the coming spring and summer.

We may be staring down a three-peat La Niña event, a trifecta only seen twice in the last fifty years.

The last time we saw three consecutive La Niña's was during the period 1998-2001 and then before that in the 1970's (specifically 1973 – 1976).

That 70's period saw a succession of destructive storms claiming houses and damaging properties across the greater Hunter and Sydney regions. All the regulars were involved, from Manly to Collaroy and Narrabeen, Bilgola, Wamberal and way up inside Port Jackson. It claimed the Norwegian bulk carrier MV Sygna which washed ashore at Stockton Bight and caused wide spread coastal erosion over the three year period.

The MV Sygna high and dry at Stockton Bight in 1974 (Wiki Commons)

The late 90's and early 2000's wasn't remembered to be as destructive coastally but did produce the most costly natural disaster seen to date for the country. That being a significant supercell thunderstorm and resultant large hail which impacted Sydney's eastern suburbs on the afternoon of April 14th, 1999. The storm pushed into the central business district causing $5.57B of damage as it punctured roofs, flooded homes and dented cars.

The flooding seen earlier this year across the eastern seaboard has now reached a cost of $4.8b, the third most costly event in the country's history, falling just behind Tropical Cyclone Tracy in 1974 at just over $5B.

The context of a three-peat La Niña has already been realised with us seeing the three most costly natural disasters for the country correlating with each of these periods over the past 50 years.

Looking ahead to the coming months and most seasonal forecast models now have the sea surface temperature forecast through the all important Nino 3.4 region falling back towards La Niña thresholds during spring.

The catalyst for this will be a strengthening wave of tropical activity (known as the Madden Julian Oscillation) shifting in from the Indian Ocean, to the north of the country during July. The MJO signal brings an increase in monsoonal activity (rainfall and convection) which is fed by strengthening easterly trade-winds on its eastern flank.

This is what's forecast over the coming weeks, that being significant bursts of stronger than normal easterly trade-winds in the western and central Pacific Ocean. The image below shows the forecast wind anomalies (difference from normal) along the equator for the coming week. Blue/purple represents stronger than normal easterly winds, with red/orange representing westerly winds. The equatorial Pacific Ocean falls between Australia and South America.

Stronger than normal trade-winds (blue/purple shading) across the equatorial Pacific region for the coming week

This will induce westward flowing surface currents, upwelling cooler water sitting above the warm sub-surface layer flowing east while piling up warmer water to our north and north-east again.

There is a chance that the warm sub-surface water will prevent us reaching La Niña thresholds over the coming months, though either way it looks like the coming spring and summer will have a La Niña twist to it.

Below are the forecast probabilites for La Niña, El Niño and Neutral conditions for the coming months, with a weakening La Niña signal for the rest of winter, ahead of an increased 58-59% chance for late spring and early summer.

ENSO forecast probabilites. Source: Climate Prediction Center (NOAA)

As per the last couple years, the tell tale sign of the lingering La Niña influence on the local synoptic weather and patterns across the country is the persistent mid-latitude frontal and storm activity. We're seeing this setup currently right across the country and this looks to persist over the coming months with higher than normal pressure across the Roaring Forties. Not ideal for a typical end to the winter across the southern states while boding well for the East Coast.

We'll continue to provide updates as the coming weeks and months unfold.

Comments

Joshy Moore's picture
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Joshy Moore Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 10:53am

you're right Craig, somebody has to be taking the piss

blackers's picture
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blackers Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 10:57am

“ Not ideal for a typical end to the winter across the southern states …”
Aw Craig, not another one!

john.callahan's picture
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john.callahan Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 11:51am

Thanks Craig -

A triple-dip La Niña would be a rare event, if it has only happened twice in 50 years.

How well was the La Niña influence on Australia understood in the 1998-2001 and 1973 – 1976?

There must be much more relevant data and comprehension now than there was then -

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 1:29pm

Back in the 70's none. The terms La Niña, El Niño and Neutral were only made in the 80's.

Earlier in 1969 Jacob Bjerknes realised there was some connection with the winds, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific but this was just the beginning. This was the first realisation of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere though.

Right now we're still learning the intricacies of the teleconnections between certain cold/warm water signals, where they're strongest and the down stream effects of this. Very fascinating.

john.callahan's picture
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john.callahan Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 2:08pm

Thanks, Craig -

Amazing these occurrences, which affect the entire Pacific region are only recently noticed and understood to any degree - with much still to learn.

southey's picture
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southey Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 8:59pm

The SOI was a good proxy to dig back further and pretty much sums up the ONI index going back well over 100 years . The Peruvians that coined the term " El Nino " the boy would have vague proxies of 100's if not 1000's of years . Soil analysis of the Chile -Atacama desert and areas further nth in Peru would give you 1000's to 100,000's of years .

nasigoreng's picture
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nasigoreng Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 12:22pm

Victoria under La Niña can be summed up in a few words: SMALL, SLOW & SCARCE.

3 years! And during a global pandemic + dictatorship.

pittsy's picture
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pittsy Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 4:01pm

The ultimate irony being that this would fall in a period when blow-in's would (theoretically) be locked out of surf spots in Vicco

Seabiscuit's picture
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Seabiscuit Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 1:43pm

Craigos - this is not what the doctor ordered!

Tubbabird's picture
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Tubbabird Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 2:02pm

Please just let us enjoy winter while it's here Craigos! I can't think of summer on the surfcoast, triggers PTSD

ruckus's picture
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ruckus Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 2:32pm

All Victorian’s unite and lets blow this shithole

johnnygreebs's picture
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johnnygreebs Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 12:39pm

The housing situation in SE QLD suggests most of you already have mate haha

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 2:35pm

tommy southcoast's picture
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tommy southcoast Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 8:51am

Just need to feel a new increase in income first!!

bbbird's picture
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bbbird Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 11:17am

A week of flooding rain and big swells may alter the face of a New South Coast.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2...

ruckus's picture
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ruckus Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 3:18pm

I would really like some Southey wisdom to plan my life out for at least the next 12+ months

Southey?

southey's picture
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southey Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:01pm

Some coasts hate this pattern others thrive .

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 6:23pm

They'll probably just finish the CSIRO Northern Rivers flood study in time for the next flood.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 6:35pm

Consider the opportunity to roll over the study grant

Bustard's picture
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Bustard Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 5:38am

As a point of reference, design and engineering changes in the construction industry in cyclonic regions as a result of cyclone yasi ( 2011 ) were only referenced in some australian standards in 2018.

sean killen's picture
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sean killen Thursday, 30 Jun 2022 at 7:33pm

I’m still in a springy at the moment water 20c .. that’s usually this time of year .. great read Craig thanks

Beggsie's picture
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Beggsie Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 5:43am

Mate if this continues re look at the next two week forecast for the surfcoast
It’s time to get the fuck out of here
! I’ve been living on the surfcoast for 30 plus years and this is the worst I can recall

geek's picture
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geek Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:29am

The problem is the day you leave will be the day the climate pattern switches and the east coast will be back to dribbly swell and northerlies for 6+ months a year :)

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:31am

Exactly, HODL!

Tristan Goose's picture
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Tristan Goose Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:50am

I always forget that this is the East coast reality when I resign myself to surfing crowded Noosa non-stop

tommy southcoast's picture
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tommy southcoast Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 9:11am

Haha this is exactly my fear haha

vicbloke's picture
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vicbloke Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 3:10pm

ditto

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 7:54am

Gee across on the east (of melbourne) has been good I’m loving winter the last 2 years usually it is way too big. Giant high sitting over Australia at the moment looks familiar.

san Guine's picture
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san Guine Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 10:49am

Yes Mem,
Apart from a dismal Jan, the MP has had an epic run of waves...long live La Niña

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 2:32pm

Yeah Jan was woeful I easily forgot about it.

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:06am

Just give me the turkish bread, I've had enough of the dips.

555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:42am

What is the influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ?
Apparently it has only remained below minus one , eleven times since 1900 , and a La Nina has occurred every following spring and summer.
It is also no mere coincidence that 11 times in 122 years equates to an average of every 11 years , in line with the solar cycle of 11 years.
The recent very low solar activity , ( weakening solar cycles since 1980 ) , has recently caused a meridional jet stream flow , resulting in significant temperature anomalies such as the extreme cold we are currently experiencing.
If solar activity continues to decline from the modern maximum seen in the 1900's to Maunder Minimum levels or even a new Grand Solar Minimum which some say has already started , the implications for our climate and surf systems will be substantial , largely unpredictable and will confound most of the climate models.
Some will even say they are 'taking the piss'.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:46am

So there's a very strong correlation between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) which tracks the ENSO signal.

I did this a few months ago but the correlation is so strong that I couldn't make sense of it. IE no lead time for the IPO on the ONI and is this because they are both using the same/similar data for observations?

Here it is in any case from the 1970's.

Also looking at this data I can't pick out any continuous 11 year cycle.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 11:51am

Thanks Craig..do you agree that there have been eleven times when the IPO has remained below minus 1 since 1900 ?
I heard another meteorologist say that .
Obviously there is some variation and anomalies , but looking at this data in your table shows the major dips below minus 1 to have been approx ,74-76 , 88-89 , 99-00 , 10-11 and 21-22 .
That looks like an approx. 11 year cycle...I think we need to acknowledge this and give the Sun more credit for the role it plays in influencing our climate .
The role of the Sun and its cycles upon our oceans , weather and climate has been downplayed in recent times for an obvious reason.
(If the current solar cycle 25 continues to follow the trend of declining solar activity , the Sun's role will become increasingly apparent to all of us ).

I will however , go so far as to predict now that we will see a repeat of double or even triple La Nina's likely starting in 2031.
Thanks again.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 1:29pm

Interesting on the cycles Check the CMEs thread in the crystal ball forums section to see links to papers even showing direct forcing from solar events, through the atmospheric column. However, officially, the sun's input to the system is constant, and of negligible influence,

Solar minimums and maximums have been very low, some predictions see a grand solar minimum inbound, Ulysses measured the decline, as well as 2024 planetary alignment with all the big ones on the cold side of us from the sun. That's before we get to increase of cosmic rays detected at the surface, and the rate of change in the change of position of the magnetic poles and resultant constant re-jigging of GPS for aircraft.. and the sun turning visually white after being a nice warm yellow around the solar maximum. I'm sure it's all negligible.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 3:40pm

Yes ,,Much remains unknown and always will , despite claims to the contrary by some.
The idea that solar activity could somehow influence our weather and climate seems blindlingly obvious, yet is currently frowned upon.
The correlation of solar activity (or lack thereof ) with past events such as the Maunder Minimum , Dalton Minimum, Modern Maximum and the climate appears to be clear , yet we are told to reject these observations , and believe that we can control the climate if only we comply with directives.
Time will tell if those making the directives were correct or had other motivations.
Meanwhile , I will be ready for increasing cold , and more wet LaNina's in the early 2030's.

southey's picture
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southey Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:14pm

There is correlation there , but there are other patterns that overlay which produce noise to effect that rhythm . We see longer periods where the La Nina and El Nino maximums are less severe and then similar length patterns where they are way more eratic . Looking into some Stream flow analysis' a long time ago . I was able to get Milankovitch cycles and more specifically 18.6 - 37.2 years -etc being the short term visible ones . Again there are two many cross overs to get reliable data . And one large Volcanic event can change that too .

Barrel Daithwaite's picture
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Barrel Daithwaite Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 9:19am

I agree with you 555, the hubris of modern man to discount the powers of the cosmos on our tiny planet never ceases to amaze me. Then you add in the earths cycles, the moon, the planets etc. it gets complex quickly. I’m not saying we need to go and read horoscopes to predict the weather but I think we are far to quick to discount celestial bodies and their influence on our planet.

The ancients had so much reverence for the sun and it’s cycles. This was true for almost all ancient cultures. Despite not having modern science I think if you stared up at the night sky for 50,000 years you’d figure out a few things. I think they were onto things we can’t currently comprehend, hopefully we will be able to come around to this one day.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 12:14pm

There are so many cycles of differing time lengths , all inter-related and dynamic such that many are not well understood ,
if at all.
Ancient Egyptians and Mayans were amazing , even the Greeks , have you heard of the
Antikythera Mechanism ?

Tane_Kakariki's picture
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Tane_Kakariki Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 10:31am

Good to see talk of the solar cycles and the solar minimum. Definitely correlations. I predicted a double or triple La Nina a few years back on this current very deep minima. Very similar to the last minima La Nina post 2010.
The 70's had a very weak cycle and was consequentially very cool prior to the warming of the 80s and 90s'.
I would wager we have turned the corner and global temperatures peaked in 2016 and we are on the way back downhill now.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 10:54am

Well done with your past prediction Tane.
I think your wager will be spot on....
and that will give people a lot to think about.

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 11:11am

Such an interesting topic!
With a rapidly changing climate as the back drop I feel like there is a high probability that something additional needs to be plugged into the pacific cycle.
I have a theory that the Antarctic ice melt is now contributing to the point of affecting the overall pacific SSTA. If you centre google earth on the south pole and imagine where the new cold water would flow it seems to me that it would naturally flow up the coast of south america at depth, feeding the upwellings in the north.
Just a thought and I'm not well read enough on the topic to know if there's any merit or existing discussion, but with this in mind I'm looking for odds on the quaddie (but hoping to lose my money).
Would love to hear opinion on this from those with the right letters after their name.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 12:08pm

Thanks dawnperiscope ..so many factors influence the oceanic currents , which in turn influence the weather and climate.
Antarctic sea ice varies every year from a winter maximum of around 18 million sq km down to around 2 million sq km , and has not shown a declining trend over the last 40 years. Usually it breaks up and floats North to warmer water where it melts.
Antarctica is actually getting colder.
East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, saw a cooling of 0.70°C per decade over the past 40 years. In total that particular region has cooled about 2.8°C since 1980.
West Antarctica has cooled at a rate of 0.42°C per decade over the past 40 years.

Tane_Kakariki's picture
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Tane_Kakariki Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 5:11pm

Yeah you won't see too many mainstream outlets covering the Antarctic cooling. Doesn't quite fit the hysteria does it.
This is a very interesting paper on the influence of the gas-giants on terrestrial climate through orbital and solar forcing. Their prediction for the relatively near future = cold.
Also plenty of good, solid science out there on the spurious correlation between co2 and the recent warming cycle I'm sure you're aware of.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360524444_Jovian_Planets_and_Lu...'s_Climate_Variability

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 8:20pm

Thanks Tane, interesting.

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Craig Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 5:27pm

Global temperatures didn't peak in 2016 and pushed above this value by quite a bit into 2019/2020.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 7:30pm

Craig that doesn't suit my climate change denial, anti-vax, election fraud, pizzagate, conspiracy theorist view of the world, please reframe.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 8:57pm

Yeah , we all know for a fact now ,
that covid originated naturally from bats at the wet market ,
that Trump colluded with Russia ,
that Hunter's laptop was Russian disinformation
and if you got the ''perfectly safe'' vaccines you wouldn't catch covid or get seriously ill.

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CutbackBretto Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 3:12pm

Love this comment!

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 4:18pm

Cheers mate ..
So many people just accept whatever they see on the 6pm news as fact , and by the time the truth comes out , they have forgotten all about it.
Reminds me of the quote ,
''It doesn't matter what is true ,
it only matters what people believe is true ''.
Paul Watson ,,Greenpeace.

bbbird's picture
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bbbird Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 11:29am

Tangent time
Maybe we are cooking the planet because 'Venus is on Fire & Mars is on Ice'

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 8:22pm

Thanks Craig.
2017 , 2018 ,2019 ,and 2021 were all significantly cooler than 2016 , while 2020 was approximately equal to 2016.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures
That is ofcourse presuming that we can rely on the graphs and trust that the historical temperature records have not been ''homogenised , revised , recalibrated or adjusted '' for various reasons by NASA and others. .
Meanwhile , 2022 is looking like it will be yet another colder year than 2016.

Craig's picture
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Craig Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 6:34pm

Just spent a few hours looking for and at papers regarding the solar cycle and link to the ENSO cycle and it seems the verdict is still out. Seems some correlations could be co-incidental so it'll be interesting to watch the research evolve in this area.

Here's the 11year cycle and declining activity for those interested.

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 9:04am

Its interesting to look up for influences but I'm guessing that its pretty much steady as she goes up there in the Solar System and its the ocean temps that are the big cog in the machine.
Pretty clear from the overall temperature rise that its not steady as she goes down here.
I can't imagine what's happening on the surface of Antarctica with regard to air temps would have much of an impact but I can imagine that what's happening at depth could be messing with the ocean system. Lots of guessing and imagining! But all fascinating.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/nasa-space-lasers-map-meltwate...

Tane_Kakariki's picture
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Tane_Kakariki Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 1:25pm

Yeah it's not just TSI that is the driver when it comes to the solar cycle, there's lots of other factors that are poorly understood and then I'm sure there's even more that are completely unknown.
Some fairly good evidence to suggest that low solar activity increases global albedo due to cosmic ray nucleation of high altitude clouds and the inverse happening at solar maximum.
Did you check out the paper on the influence of the Jovian bodies on climate forcing?
I've also read some interesting studies that show almost instantaneous weather teleconnections to solar electromagnetic forcing, so it seems that TSI is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to climate drivers.
The paleoclimate record clearly shows that the modern warming is nothing drastic or unprecedented and the Medieval warm period, the Roman and the Minoan warm periods were significantly warmer than today's modern episode.
In fact the Minoan period is called the Holocene climate optimum, and the Little Ice age at the dawn of the industrial revolution was the coldest time on Earth in around 8,000 years.
Also the UAH satellite data set is an interesting one as it hasn't been adjusted or homogenized like a lot of the other data sets (I'm looking at you NASA)- it shows warming over the past 40 years, as has been the case but it's far less drastic and there have been two long pauses from 2000-2014 (the so called 'Global warming hiatus') and now 2016-2022 which has been actually a slight cooling since the 2016 peak. May 2022 stands just 0.17C over the long term average according to this data.
BOM, NOAA, NASA and also NIWA have all been caught tampering with the temperature record to cool the past and warm the current epoch.
You have to ask yourself why these agencies always used adjusted vs measured temperatures.
Somethings fishy, there's plenty of solid science out there showing temperature leads co2, not the other way around and in the Lords year of 2022, there are exactly zero people on this planet that understand the global climate system.
For me the jury is most definitely still out on this one, give me warmth over an end to our current interglacial period any day, most people out there are clueless to the fact we are still in the midst of an ice-age!

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 4:08pm

Lots of excellent information there Tane..
Many people have little to no knowledge of the climate history over the last 10,000 years , let alone the last 100 million or more.
Critical analysis in today's world is in a serious decline it seems.

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 5:37pm

Thanks for the links Gents. Feel like you've sent me straight to a double black diamond before learning how to snow plough. Can you please explain how we can be heating up and cooling down at the same time?
"The 45-year SST index shift, from a 500-year maximum in 2025 to a 3000-year index minimum in 2070, is caused by a rare phase shift relation between the SUN cycles. The computed solar-forced deep minimum in 2070 indicates an upcoming deep cold climate period."

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 7:01pm

We are not heating up any more.
Above I said ,,''The recent very low solar activity , ( weakening solar cycles since 1980 ) , has recently caused a meridional jet stream flow , resulting in significant temperature anomalies such as the extreme cold we are currently experiencing.''
The meridional or wavy jet stream flow results in anomalous areas of both warmth and cold , as air streams are moved further North and South than that which occurs when the solar activity is higher and the jet streams are straighter.
The media focus is almost entirely on the warmer areas, while ignoring the extreme cold areas,,such as Antarctica as mentioned above , and the North pole currently having the coldest summer on record with temps below the 1958-2002 average every day for the last two months , Arctic sea ice extent now the highest for nine years at this date , and the Greenland Ice sheet now well above average at this date for the fourth year of the last six.
Some say the Grand Solar Minimum started in 2020 and will extend to 2055 , resulting in 3.5 decades of colder temperatures overall.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 8:35pm

That article is really interesting. Some very loose grasp on gravitational theories in there, but genuinely thought provoking.
So we cool down until 2055 and give ourselves a pat on the back. Then while we’re all smug and celebrating the sunspots gets cranked on and Rome burns till 2600.
Starting to think there is a god and he knows Andrew Denton!

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 9:16pm

Cold records being set today July 5 , 2022. in Queensland.
Brisbane max of 12.4 degrees C , the coldest for 22 years.
Rockhampton max of 12.5 degrees C.
Townsville , coldest July day ever recorded..15 degrees C .
Gold Coast Seaway yesterday ,,14.1 degrees , coldest max ever recorded.
Queensland , beautiful one day , freezing the next.
My trip there in May was a total wipe out ,,cold and raining for 8 days out of ten , after most years in the past being around 25 degrees and sunny.

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bonza Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 10:44pm

That’s the weather report we all get on the 6pm news. You confused it with the climate. Craig has explained this to you.

“I think that we reject the evidence that our world is changing because we are still, as that wonderfully wise biologist E. O. Wilson reminded us, tribal carnivores. “ James Lovelock

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 9:43am

The 6pm weather report is a snapshot of the climate.
Hot weather is instantly cited as proof of global warming / climate change , yet cold temp. records are disregarded and ignored as just ''the weather''.
Daily weather and the daily temperature recordings are compiled to form the records used to justify efforts to control the climate by ' limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.'
If the weather continues to deliver increased cold records on many days for years and
decades to come , that objective will be easily met .

''The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears ,.
It was their final , most essential command'' .. George Orwell. 1984.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 9:44am

With climate change overall the atmosphere is warming. It's happening at the highest rate across the poles, but there are outliers and with change not everywhere warms. Some places get colder etc.

The problem with the warming poles is that we get a breakdown of the polar vortex and strong westerly winds that are usually limited to the polar latitudes (as you mentioned). That then results in these wobbles in the air masses surrounding the globe and more meridional (north to south instead of east to west) cold out breaks and hot weather intrusions further north and south than normal.

I'm not going into your other posts as the science behind a warming atmosphere, ocean temperatures etc has been settled. You can but your head against this change but the world as a whole is moving in the right direction now, moving away from fossil fuels etc and trying to limit the input of CO2, methane etc.

555ZZZ's picture
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555ZZZ Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 10:40am

Yes , the world has been trying to move away from fossil fuels , but reality is now preventing that move,
( witness the current global energy crisis and the backtracking away from renewables by the countries who embraced them the most , such as Germany ,UK and other EUs ) as fossil fuel use is continuing to increase every year to supply an increasing global energy demand to maintain and raise living standards for all people.
Meanwhile , as I reported above , Antarctica is not warming at all , and the Arctic just had the coldest summer on record and has more ice now than fifteen years ago , when some were hysterically predicting we would see ice free Arctic summers by 2015.
Clearly no one really knows the complex interactions of the drivers of climate on our planet to a sufficient degree to be able to make accurate predictions , and so , we need to remain open to revision.
Climate is cyclic , not linear.
True science is never settled . There is no such thing as consensus science .
Science is no longer science , when it is no longer allowed to be questioned and alternative hypotheses debated.
If observations fail to match the modelled predictions , then we need to revise the hypothesis.

If standing up for a free and unshackled exchange of information and ideas and sharing factual observations to promote independent thinking and debate,
is butting my head against consensus ,
then I will happily do it every day.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 11:00am

Arctic sea ice this year is again running below the long-term mean.

The Arctic and western Antarctic Peninsula have warmed at a greater rate than the rest of the world over the past five decades.

There's been a reduction in sea ice cover and I'm not sure if you're aware but krill feed off algae on the bottom of the floating sea ice. And if there's a massive collapse in arctic krill, the flow on effects will be disastrous.

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555ZZZ Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 12:05pm

Thanks Craig,
I think that with 10.86 million square kilometres average for June , the highest for seven years , , there will not be a massive collapse in krill, just like there was no polar bear extinction , either now as predicted some 15 years ago , or 6,000 to 7,000 years ago when there was little to no Arctic ice during the summer despite almost zero human activity at the time.
Ocean currents also have a significant effect on sea ice , as do prevailing winds..as I am sure you know.
''June air temperatures over the Arctic were close to the long-term average. Most of the high-latitude Arctic Ocean was within a degree of the 1981 to 2010 average temperature. ''
That doesn't indicate rapid warming to me.
However , the big question is , what will happen from here ?
No one knows that.
https://www.climate4you.com/images/NSIDC%20GlobalArcticAntarctic%20SeaIc...

Tane_Kakariki's picture
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Tane_Kakariki Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 1:25pm

Hey Craig,
Respectfully, to say the science is settled is pretty unscientific.
Let's, just for fun, run the math on the Greenhouse Effect of planet earth, something I'm sure few people have ever bothered to do.
According to the Greenhouse gas theory (remember, it's just a theory, as it cannot be proven by any scientific experiment - simply because we cannot replicate the planet's atmospheric system in a controlled manner), the greenhouse effect of the gasses in the atmosphere, is supposedly responsible for 33K of the ambient surface temperature.
So, Water Vapor is thought to be responsible for about 70% of the Greenhouse effect (although estimates vary from 50%-95%), and Co2 around 25% with other GHG making up the other 5%.
Of the total atmospheric Co2, human emissions make up a little less than half a percent of the total volume (if we are to assume that all of the human Co2 ever emitted is still in the atmosphere and hasn't been absorbed into the carbon cycle already.)
If the total Greenhouse effect is 33K then about 8K of that is due to Co2 and about 0.15K of that due to human Co2.
Hardly catastrophic.
The GHE theory also doesn't account for adiabatic compression of the atmosphere, so according to some scientists, it's likely that the actual GHE is responsible for less of the 33K than is currently estimated, as the compression of the atmosphere by gravity is likely responsible for a fair amount of the ambient surface temperature.
The science certainly is far from 'settled' - honestly we don't know fuck all about the planet, it's atmosphere and climate system. Any claims to the contrary are merely hubris.

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Mcface Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 1:36pm

Sorry mate but your maths is dodgy and understanding of the greenhouse effect is quite poor. Craig's right, the science (in terms of broad scale trends) is well settled, and the concepts are relatively simple.

BS about orbital trends and solar patterns seems like the latest in climate red herrings that the wilfully ignorant love to jump on, but the reality is these patterns have been largely factored into account and their effect on our climate is very little.

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555ZZZ Thursday, 7 Jul 2022 at 6:05pm

So you are told , by those pushing the APGW theory for various vested interests.
Naturally they want everyone to accept what they say as truth , that should not be questioned...
Just sit down , do as you are told , don't ask questions , remain ignorant and shut up.

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Craig Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 4:42pm

Firstly the greenhouse gas effect has been proven, just last year..

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091585

To be still arguing against the basic physics surrounding the greenhouse effect isn't very smart or scientific either.

Secondly carbon isn't being absorbed back into the carbon cycle as rapidly as it's being added into the atmosphere. Again observations which year on year increase.

Thirdly we know plenty about the planet, its atmosphere, the climate teleconnections and drivers. I'm daily in awe reading the posts from professors and academics studying and predicting in this field. It goes well beyond my knowledge and also yours.

The more we learn, the more accurate a picture we are gaining of all these interconnections between solar input, radiative forcing, stratospheric and tropospheric interactions among many other things.

Any claims otherwise are insulting to all these learned, intelligent people.

Tane_Kakariki's picture
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Tane_Kakariki Thursday, 7 Jul 2022 at 4:31pm

Wow, that last line might be one of the most cultish things I have ever read!
So we cannot question the great gods of climate science lest we insult them?
What about the dozens and dozens of papers written by, I assume, learned and intelligent people?
Are they less intelligent because they have differing claims or are they simply insulting morons?
I can point you towards many papers arguing the Co2 warming theory, but it would seem to me that your mind is firmly closed and you won't even read them.
Science is about asking questions not just blindly believing everything because they might be 'learned and intelligent' - are you suggesting that no scientist has ever been wrong and had their theories disproved?
Are the folks at the Royal society, who have just released this study, just being insulting?

https://notrickszone.com/2022/06/02/royal-society-scientific-method-appl...
https://sciencepublishinggroup.com/journal/paperinfo?journalid=298&paper...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00708
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspa.2021.0836
https://sciencepublishinggroup.com/journal/paperinfo?journalid=298&paper...
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/9/3/33
https://www.mdpi.com/2413-4155/2/4/83
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180103160129.htm
https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/81193
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-24630-6/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320123470_The_Relationship_betw...
https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.00165
This is just the tip of the iceberg, I can't be bothered finding more, it makes no difference to me ultimately.
Most of these you can unfortunately only read the abstracts as they are pay-to-read papers.
But in any case, 'the science' is far from settled.

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555ZZZ Thursday, 7 Jul 2022 at 6:00pm

History is filled with times when the orthodoxy was totally wrong , only to be corrected at a later time when new observations and ideas were put forward by those who dared to question the 'consensus'.

There is much we don't know about the planet , and there is much that we do know , such as the fact that some 540 million years ago the atmospheric CO2 level was 5000 ppm.
Over the following millenia it reduced to around 2000 ppm during the Jurassic period , and then continued to reduce to the very low levels we see today around 420 ppm or 4 parts in 10,000.
We also know that during these times of much higher CO2 than today , the planet did not 'cook' , due to a 'runaway greenhouse effect''.
Indeed life and biodiversity absolutely flourished , as organisms used that CO2 to thrive and subsequently sequestered it away from the atmosphere in the form of calcium carbonates and fossil fuels.

CO2 is a trace gas which is essential to all life on Earth , and some say the current historically low levels amount to a 'drought' of CO2.
Recent increases in CO2 have enabled plant growth to increase across the planet as documented by satellite photography.

Yet despite this , the current orthodoxy , backed up by globalist financiers and elites , and a willing and controlled mainstream media , is to demonise CO2 as a dangerous pollutant that we should be further reducing from the current historically extremely low levels , in a hypothetical , flawed and impotent crusade to control the climate.

Eventually the folly of spending trillions of dollars trying to control the climate , rather than providing abundant energy to all people and using engineering and technology to mitigate the effects of natural disasters,
will be clear to all.

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Thursday, 7 Jul 2022 at 6:18pm

So at the current rate we'll be back to Jurassic period levels by the next millenium. Rate of change is everything.

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 6:44am

May was definitely unusual but that may have had something to do with the coral sea being a wee bit warm.
Using daily weather observations to support Millenial climate cycle theories…
Checking the surf at greeny on a 6ft south swell.

555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 12:32pm

Global average temp in June was a massive 0.3 degrees C above the 1979 - 2000 average.
Catastrophic ?
https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-ced&wm_...

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Paul McD Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 8:31pm

Great!! So not only is it a triple la Nina, but we're also in the middle of a bloody ice age!!
Nah, but seriously, started reading this thread with dread and have ended up enlightened with some pretty insightful stuff. Cheers legends.

Tane_Kakariki's picture
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Tane_Kakariki Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 1:26pm

We think, therefore we are?

Doc_Red's picture
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Doc_Red Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 2:51pm

Craig,
I use a technique called Recurrence Analysis to look for patterns in chaotic and potentially complex time series data such as this. Give it a go or drop a line.
Red

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Craig Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 9:12am

Thanks Red, will do!

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Beggsie Friday, 1 Jul 2022 at 9:37am

Btw when I’d does get good everyone is welcome to surf winki with us all !!!!

No mal half a quiver's picture
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No mal half a quiver Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 8:17am

A couple of summers back we had almost non stop NE winds causing up welling (colder then normal water temp)
Could this be a trigger event?

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Craig Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 5:31pm

Nah, localised north-east wind driven upwelling is just that. It doesn't extend much further out across the shelf. There's usually a buffer/front the further east (out to sea) you get once you hit the East Australian Current.

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Yamba Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 10:14am

The so called weather people have no idea on the weather patterns.
They get it wrong just about very time.
I think they would have better results with a crystal ball

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Weatherman Saturday, 2 Jul 2022 at 6:14pm

Seriously? You mean you take no notice of surf forecasts and weather maps etc and would prefer to look into a crystal ball to tell you what the surf might be like tomorrow and days after? I'm not suggesting they are always correct, but they do a pretty good job.

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Gary Blair Sunday, 3 Jul 2022 at 11:48am

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/videos/sa-hit-by-powerful-low-pressure-sy...
That negative SAM burst changed the climate for the Eastern half of Oz for a whole month
How do you future forecast for that
It's hard
Forecasting is necessary
Wrong or Right it saves lives

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 10:25am

Not good! Watching the track it drifted right close to the Royal National Park but is being kept away from the cliffs by a tug.

Hopefully they get it powered again.

https://www.thedcn.com.au/news/bulk-trades-shipping/breaking-news-bulk-c...

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 1:36pm

Frightening, looks like 2 more tugs on the way and a rescue boat hanging around

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 1:39pm

Craig - i was wondering why you included the 850hpa chart for the trade wind anomalies. Can you explain please?
The long range EC forecast has a 1040hpa ++ high setting up in the eastern pacific.. the conveyor belt continues.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 2:00pm

850hPa level winds are used in most analysis and forecasting as the wind at this height is more constant in speed and direction (approx 1500m above mean sea level). It'll be less influenced by surface features like land masses etc.

It's the normal convention to use 850hPa winds for future/past analysis.

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dawnperiscope Monday, 4 Jul 2022 at 2:18pm

Thanks!

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 9:00am

Thanx Craig & for updates...
ADF ... Always Diverting Floodwater.
Pacific Basin is still all at sea after cable snapped...tugs are headed out, but rescue is not assured.
Rivers are still rising.... NSW is in over their heads...their 4th major flood since last March.

Crew hailed Huey to punch some holes in the sky, ya should be able to come up for air soon...(Maybe!)
Sunshine State has run short on Sun & Shine...sending down Emergency Doom'n'Gloom merchants.
Swim faster neighbour...Qldurrz are minding yer Towels while building our Border Dyke...much higher!

Drowning out the Neighbours relentless cry for help is driving us all insane!
Damn right we gotta wild psychotic tune to ride out Craig's Wild Weather

The Things ~ It seems to be Raining (Again / Always / Forever / As Usual / Bloody Typical)

oxrox's picture
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oxrox Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 10:10am

Thanks Craig. Weather on the west coast seems a bit different to the last couple of years. Really dry winter so far with easterly winds. I think Perth had the second driest June since records began with only 60mm for the month. Average is 120mm I recall. Hope we get some rain soon. Doesn't look likely for at least a week. Not significant anyway.

flow's picture
flow's picture
flow Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 10:15am

How's the rehab ox?

oxrox's picture
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oxrox Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 10:35am

Hey Flow. Exactly 3 months post surgery. I feel it's going really well. Starting to feel close to normal but still a way to go. Getting strength back in my right side now which is good. Big toe still won't bend up.
Hopefully another 3 months and I might be able to start surfing again. Been a good couple of weeks here with some more good days to come. Getting a bit toey now.
How are you going? Surfing a bit more?

flow's picture
flow's picture
flow Tuesday, 5 Jul 2022 at 10:50am

Good to hear. Yes. Surfing twice a week. Every surf is getting better incrementally. Less stiffness in the back. Still not full strength. Just cruising along the wave. Can't complain. My toe sounds better than yours but you sound better than I did at the 3 month mark. I probably had my surf at 7 months post op. Sounds like you're in a good headspace which is important.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 6 Jul 2022 at 7:37pm

We're now seeing the warm Kelvin Wave surfacing, mentioned back in this article.. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2022/06/02/la-nina-the-b...

The difference in temperatures over the last month show it clearly to the east.

What will be interesting is to see how this strong easterly trade-wind burst (apparently the strongest on record for this time of year) does to the westward flowing surface currents. Will it draw more of the warm water up and push it east closer towards us or will we see the upwelling of cooler water limited to where the trades blew across the western and central Pacific?

Here's the CFS forecast and interesting to see that the temperature forecasts across the Pacific for now (top left) don't really show the current warming signal well.

We wait and continue to watch.

Switchfoot bob's picture
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Switchfoot bob Saturday, 9 Jul 2022 at 10:47am

Does anyone know about the constant flowing of oceans of lava that mover around underneath the earth's crust? Does this have a localised effect?

batfink's picture
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batfink Saturday, 16 Jul 2022 at 9:20am

Quite the rabbit hole, this one. I’m just left pondering who are the people who gain from putting out science that some here say is corrupted, or doesn’t take into account other factors. Who are these beneficiaries? Or in Latin, cui bono?

If the answer is ‘teh elites’, then I think I know where this is going. If the answer is ‘global financial elites’, how do they benefit? What mechanisms are in place for them to benefit? How does stopping coal mining and petroleum mining, and a drastic reduction in shipping benefit money market operators?

And if we go down the path of renewables and find that our air is clean again, who suffers?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 9:35am

The stronger than normal trades across the western/central equatorial Pacific (strongest on record for this time of year) have broken the warm water Kelvin wave in half (keep an eye between 160 and 140w in animation below), and this now will push us towards our third La Niña.

We've seen warm water upwelled to the east but with the cooler water now developing at depth through the central Pacific, any further trade bursts will upwell it, bringing on La Niña this coming spring/summer. Most agencies have us still sitting at La Niña thresholds and that's what the current synoptic setup across the regions indicates.

One look at the East Coast charts for the coming fortnight tells the story.

geek's picture
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geek Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 9:51am

RIP Vicco, better start planning that trip north