Margaret River Pro - Forecast

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

Nightmares or dreams for this year's competitors. Photo: Mick Gullan

It's been entertaining watching the guys and gals boosting and ripping apart our playful East Coast beachies, but it's time for things to get a bit more serious as the tour heads west to the raw open ocean reefs of Margaret River.

The waiting period for the Boost Mobile Margaret River Pro kicks off this Sunday and runs through until the 12th of May and one thing is certain, there won't be a lack of swell.

There'll actually be a flurry of significant swells impacting Western Australia as a node of the Long Wave Trough (LWT) strengthens directly west of the state. The LWT is an upper atmospheric signal/wave which influences surface, synoptic patterns and weather. It's much broader than surface level features and is much slower moving.

When it's amplified across a certain region it strengthens and steers storms and frontal systems up towards that location, and vice versa when there's an upper level blocking pattern.

So with the strengthening node just west of Western Australia during the waiting period of the Margaret River Pro we'll see back to back storms directed up towards the state initially with favourable winds, but then deteriorating as the node pushes across the country proper bringing poor weather and onshore winds.

The first storm to develop under the influence of the LWT will be a strong polar low forming west of the Heard Island region Wednesday evening. This low will broaden and project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through Western Australia's south-western swell window, continuing slowly east while pushing more into its southern swell window.

Most of the swell production will be done in that ideal south-western swell window and we'll see a strong, long-period SW groundswell filling in the first day of the waiting period, building rapidly from mid-morning. Main Break should build to 10-12ft+ and North Point will come into the equation through the afternoon when the swell peaks, though there are rumours that North Point won't be available this event.

Winds at this stage look like they'll play ball with a moderate morning E/SE breeze, strong SE into the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure slides in quickly from the south-west.

Monday, the second day of the waiting period looks excellent as well (though tricky) with large, easing surf from the 10ft range with a strong, offshore E'ly breeze, shifting E/NE and easing into the afternoon (did someone say The Box?).

Strong E/NE winds look to persist on Tuesday as the swell continues to ease from a S/SW direction, though still a good 4-6ft at Main Break, best on the rights.

We'll be looking at a low point in swell Wednesday morning ahead of another large, long-period SW groundswell building rapidly through the day. This will be generated by another polar low forming in a similar position to the first, but it'll be a touch weaker and break down earlier, at more of a distance from the mainland.

At this stage the swell should build back to the 10ft range through the afternoon along with lighter, variable winds at dawn, giving into a strong W-SW change as a front pushes in from the west.

This will then bring three days of strong onshore winds and large, stormy surf to the region, Thursday through Saturday with conditions possibly improving into the end of the period as the swell size and power eases. We'll provide more updates as the waiting period progresses, but all in all the first four days look jam packed with large, offshore and challenging surf.

Click for Swellnet's Margaret River Forecast Page

Comments

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 12:58pm

That purple blob will be causing a few butterflies for competitors today.

NDC's picture
NDC's picture
NDC Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 1:07pm

Any news on how/if the covid flare up might impact things - hopefully with lockdown easing they’ll all be able to get in and we get to see the worlds best on 10’ west Aussie beasts - so far I imagine the wsl is v pleased with how this patchwork Aussie leg has unfolded in terms of wave quality- I think they were due a bit of luck

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 1:15pm

They'll all be on a private chartered flight into Busselton this afternoon, so dodging Perth.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 1:23pm

I'm picturing the captain announcing your forecast over the intercom.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 9:57am

And i'm picturing JJF sitting in his seat with a big wide smile and Gabby sitting in another seat with a frown that grew bigger after hearing that announcement lol.

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 1:35pm

Good news. Will be nice to see something a bit different to the previous two comps.

Trentslatterphoto's picture
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Trentslatterphoto Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 1:54pm

trails at COW

Justonemore's picture
Justonemore's picture
Justonemore Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:00pm

I"m booking in JJF will have a big smile on the dial with that forecast he will be ripping.

mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:08pm

This is when I want rid of the non-elimination round. Sort the wheat from the chaff on day one and just show us the best surfers in the best waves.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:25pm

$20 on JR locked in

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 2:56pm

Great report. Shame those SE winds come up in the arvo as the swell peaks. If it's true Nth Point isn't available, they'd almost have no choice but to run in Main Break at it's maximum. Would be theatre!

Pottah's picture
Pottah's picture
Pottah Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 6:08pm

SE is straight offshore at North point

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 8:56pm

That longer period should find it's way in there too even if it's south. But i'd love to see them at maxing main break for something spectacular. Just a shame SE isn't so good there....still do able though!!

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 3:06pm

Carnage Coming Up. The Girls will Earn their Prize Money.

lomah's picture
lomah's picture
lomah Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 3:45pm

At what size does going right at main break cease to be a viable option?

dazzler's picture
dazzler's picture
dazzler Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:45pm

About 6ft with no jet ski, however JJF has shown it can surfed bigger. I also remember watching Adriano DS absolutely school Kelly I quarters back about 2016 or 17 on a Saturday arvo, easy triple overhead & trying to ride a board too small for the conditions.

I just hope there is none of the normal “I didn’t bring a big enough board with me” from the CT mob, it’s Margs in May, it’s going to get big ya halfwit!

And can someone tell Joey Turpel no one calls the rock shelf on the right “the bricks” they call it the rock shelf or reef.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 3:49pm

Send the girls out at the peak of the swell let them earn their money and live up to
all the pumped up hype we are relentlessly subjected to.
John John - Jack Robinson final in these conditions Jack Robinson to win.
Go Jack

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 10:01am

Most of the comp is always at main break.
It's not hollow enough for Robbo to stand out from most of the rest of the field.
JJF is the only guy there that does that.

benjis babe's picture
benjis babe's picture
benjis babe Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 6:44am

here we go again... blah, blah blah about the girls

enough

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 3:53pm

Any wildcards this year? Like when Jay Davies smashed the pretenders at The Box a few years back?

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 4:01pm

Looking at the heat draw, there is two empty spaces not named yet.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 7:52pm

Surfing WA had trials on today. Wilcox has one spot, cant remember/recognise the name of the other fella or any of the females. Its on their IG page if you go to Surfing WA

amb's picture
amb's picture
amb Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 11:30am

the other fella would be South Oz's Cyrus Cox

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 12:48pm

Wrong, Cyrus is a local lad

amb's picture
amb's picture
amb Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 12:56pm

His parents and grandparents are SA surfing royalty...where claiming him !

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 1:55pm

Haha amb, I know, but he doesn't say he's a crow eater out in the line up, wants to be a sandgroper

sunhil's picture
sunhil's picture
sunhil Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 4:30pm

For sale 7.2' rounded pin, shaped for local conditions. Margaret River.

criso's picture
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criso Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 4:40pm

Through the 80's they would surf in 15ft, 20kts onshores with no jet ski's

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 4:53pm

Yep, I vaguely remember someone copping a hiding out the back and getting washed all the way to the Rivermouth.

Edit: Actually I think that may have been Curren surfing a left through to the Rivermouth.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 4:59pm

I also vaguely remember Nick Wood going down on a massive one, and cutting his elbow on the bottom, which I'm guessing would have been pretty deep. And Todd Holland yelling at his opponent (not sure who it was) because they were shoulder hopping and he wasn't happy with that.

FrazP's picture
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FrazP Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:38am

Remember watching that on Wide World of Sports. If I recall correctly, that was the year Pauline Mencer charged as hard as anyone.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:43am

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:47am

Farkk

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:53am

Wearing Gloves ?

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 5:05pm

Yep, here it is: https://vimeo.com/124937253

Curren at 15 sec mark, going to the rivermouth

Nick Wood at 1:55

criso's picture
criso's picture
criso Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 5:17pm

Classic stuff thanx for the vid " i used ta have a good board not no more"

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 4:45pm

Awesome forecast.

This should level the playing field a bit.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 5:04pm

It’s going to ruin everything if crew can’t win events by doing single airs on a wave. Move it to Dunsborough.

Stef_Olly's picture
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Stef_Olly Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 6:03pm

Jack Robbo to school the competition with that forecast!

sean killen's picture
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sean killen Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 6:20pm

Really looking forward to this contest.. forecast looks promising.. only airs on the rights Maybe at the end to be rewarded before dry reef .. Brazil’s can’t help em self .. jj.. jack robo should dominate

Andrew P's picture
Andrew P's picture
Andrew P Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 6:27pm

Jadson the Dark Horse. Full of heart that dude

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 8:17pm

+1 he's a beast when it's 6ft+

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 7:07pm

I do love him.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 6:39pm

I forecast someone will do an air reverse and win.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 6:41pm

Connor Coffin Italo final.

Just putting it out there.

quokka's picture
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quokka Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 7:00pm

Locals and Hawaiians will be the only ones prepared, everyone else will be undergunned and scrambling for boards as per usual.

evosurfer's picture
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evosurfer Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 7:55pm

Im looking forward to this some real waves with the best surfers in the world.

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 8:01pm

So... what... Jordy Smith is the dark horse now?

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 8:35pm

Sorry AndrewP, I had browsed over your post earlier. Let me rephrase then...

So... what... Jordy is an 'outside' threat?
I don't even want to look at the draw. Jack and Jordy final.

nextswell's picture
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nextswell Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:08pm

8/10ft consistent main break, no one matches John’s carves and his top turn.

thedrip's picture
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thedrip Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:17pm

This is why they should never move it to North Point - TOM Curren

8’ NP vs 12’+ Mainbreak. Make them surf big boards in big waves, using the rail. It’s a great discriminator.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:23pm

Agreed. Sick photo!! And the thing is, they always pump up the year that it was huge...(90?) . Be so sick to have a proper day of big big surf.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:26pm

Was that board once listed on Aust market for 10 K - Kwiva ?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:44pm

Big Boards Big Waves - A 12ft Tom Hoye -Go Hard or go Home

stanfrance's picture
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stanfrance Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 6:51pm

How’s that 12ft. Calls on size are so subjective!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 6:58pm

I read it as a 12ft board Stanley

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 10:25pm

And if a 12ft board is what's needed.. good luck to the competitors.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:20pm
thedrip's picture
thedrip's picture
thedrip Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:45pm

Send them out. It was paddle surfed this day two months ago. They ARE meant to be the best surfers in the world. Or is that only when it’s 10’ or smaller and they can do whip whip gymnastic turns?

Big boards, big waves, rail game in the pocket.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:49pm

Holy faark

thedrip's picture
thedrip's picture
thedrip Tuesday, 27 Apr 2021 at 9:55pm

If the local boys can do it....

t-rex's picture
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t-rex Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:07am

You are all kidding yourselves it is a 3 horse race between Medina Italo and JJ

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:56am

Pretty much, and I’d have Gabs and Italo as the more likely. If Griff and Felipe can scrape into the top 5 they both have the potential to have a day out if it all comes together on the day at Trestles for them too.

Can’t see anyone else really troubling the top 3 there.

criso's picture
criso's picture
criso Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 6:04pm

T rue, T rex

Tooold2bakook's picture
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Tooold2bakook Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:52pm

Spot in. Same way it is for every other event

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:24am

Nice morning in the West .

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 10:51am

Not so sure of Italo (and he hates sharks as we know) if it is really big and boofy, certainly JJF and Meds (remember those two a couple of years ago in nightmarish Bells - 10 foot and howling onshore they were the only ones to master it), Jordy may go OK even Julian if he catches waves (why is that guy so good he doesn't win more?), Owen is good when it is big, I think there could be a few more in the hunt than you think.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 11:12am

Italo surfed well that day too, was the day he ended up on the button

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 11:15am

Got that bullshit interference from Jordy from memory where he got out of the way as Jordy did a whitewater takeoff.

Trentslatterphoto's picture
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Trentslatterphoto Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 11:10am

small window or your fucked wsl , fyi the salmon are running hard as atm so there will be numerous alarms. the time of year leaves this location open to pure onshores as the easterly air your require is replaced with the loved northerly.

Barrel Daithwaite's picture
Barrel Daithwaite's picture
Barrel Daithwaite Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 4:05pm

Drove past and saw a crane building infrastructure at north point so guessing it’s gonna be there at least one day

dr-surf's picture
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dr-surf Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 4:20pm

Move it to Triggs.

Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 4:51pm

Can someone confirm if Tom Hoye died today?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:25pm

Yes -R.I.P. Tom

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:31pm

:-(

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:31pm

Was it Tom Hoye who shaped the Claw?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:39pm

Yes - Precision Equipment Surfboards ...Part Art Part Physics

savanova's picture
savanova's picture
savanova Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:41pm

Bronte for girls? Local knowledge for the big stuff should help

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:43pm

Bought a Tom Hoye back in the early 90s when I was passing through the South West. Got some nice waves on that board.

Thanks Tom.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 5:43pm

Rip Tom

Had a great surf on a pumping day last winter with a bloke on a Claw.
Board looked like it went insane.

Italo is a pipe master. He will have no probs at 10ft main break

criso's picture
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criso Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 6:02pm

Well today the pros would have scored huge perfection down south 3m and lite offshores so sick ide love to see some of the action

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 6:22pm

Not 3m but they boys are out absolutely slaying

eel's picture
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eel Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 7:00pm
Jamyardy's picture
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Jamyardy Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:54pm

I think that article is incorrect eel. The AMR shire had already approved North Point to be used each year for a maximum of two days per year (potential for an extra two days for semis and finals if alternate locations ... mainies/box are unsuitable, and the shire approves this) for WSL comps up to and including the year 2023.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:18pm
Jono's picture
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Jono Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:33pm

Insane. Had to break it down into a sequence to try to understand it (right click and open in new tab to enlarge it)...

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:00pm

Insane!

tango's picture
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tango Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 5:14pm

Rail turns 1
Airs 0

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:13pm

Couple seeding round heats to really look foward to if, fingers crossed the forecast stays true:

Heat 3 - Florence v Bourez v Mikey Wright

Heat 5 - Ferreira v Robinson v Wilcox

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:22pm

That’s a fckn filthy turn.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 8:27pm

wonder how judges would score it with the flubbed take-off?

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:03pm

I have watched that turn so many times already.

Bob Sacamano's picture
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Bob Sacamano Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 9:54am

I watched it once then went straight to TAB and put money on JJF.

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 1:58pm

One could cheekily say that it's the only one he's got :-)

On a serious note, it'll be very interesting to see if the real JJF shows up, or if he remains la-dee-dah about the whole thing.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:14pm

You guys beat me to it. Craig how do you get the picture up when you post Instagram links? I only know how to copy the link and paste it

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 9:23pm

Looking into it GF, looks like normal users can't ATM. Will get it fixed.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 11:33am

Nice work, Craig. I can’t view the Instagram links and it does my head in.

Jono's picture
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Jono Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 11:52am

Wheels are currently in motion

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 12:09pm

Cheers

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 12:17pm

Could be life changing for Udo

Jono's picture
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Jono Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 12:03pm

OK, the comments code has now been updated so that Instagram posts are automatically embedded and displayed. So just copy and paste an Instagram post URL into your comment and you're all good.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 12:16pm

Good work. Seems like a good portion of the sites content was getting redirected to a page telling me to join Instagram.

manic- mat -rider's picture
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manic- mat -rider Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 10:35pm

That is why JJF is the best surfer in the world!

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:28am

Except he isn’t.......

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 9:48am

If the box is an option I wonder if Toledo will be feeling tightening of the sphincter shortly

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 10:35am

Is it possible to be done and dusted by Tues Arvo for a box showdown?
Can they introduce the overlapping heats to get it done?

kookfactor's picture
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kookfactor Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 11:00am

70 ft and glassy bra
Winds sketchy from today, NW influence. Mainbreak peak was a circus yesterday, 10ft+ faces.....crew going right mostly.
Mikey mullet man looked relaxed.

kookfactor's picture
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kookfactor Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 11:03am

Wildcards Jacob Wilcox and Cyrus Cox...don't get coxy.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 1:38pm

Stoked to see a Coxy in the mix!! So good. Yeew!

shoogsyboy's picture
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shoogsyboy Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 11:50am

Shark sightings have just ramped up with a reported white poiner sighting yesterday. Only bronzies and spinner(mako) sharks till now

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 6:05pm

Mate, there have been that many sharks around down here on the Sth Coast the last few weeks. I don't reckon i've ever heard of so many around a place at the one time. Guys are catching salmon as long as their arm everyday off the beaches. And they're all heading North! The last 3 times i went down to one of the beaches up on a high cliff i've spotted a shark within 10 seconds of looking down....every time.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 6:08pm

Mental!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 6:16pm

What type of sharks?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 6:43pm

Walked a long way up that beach once and had some fun, lonely waves, school of fish bottom turning with me under the board

That pic :0

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 7:17pm

Yeah it's a beautiful spot VJ. Don't get there much, bit of a mish from my place but definitely lively along there! That beach walk is epic too.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 6:45pm

This might be handy if you’re not familiar with what’s swimming around you:

kookfactor's picture
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kookfactor Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 12:09pm

its a world away from Margs where shark activity has been at a minimum of late.

shoogsyboy's picture
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shoogsyboy Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 1:23pm

you been surfing in a wave pool? margs has had way too many shark interactions in the last 2 weeks

willibutler's picture
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willibutler Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 6:33pm
dannosaunders's picture
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dannosaunders Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 1:52pm

Roughie for this event, Yago Dora. Killer style in big surf.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 7:13pm

that video was really cool.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 29 Apr 2021 at 8:37pm
tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:26am

Craig how do you think the swellnet algorithm goes for swell period and direction?
I’ve personally found one of your rivals to be better for this info, although sometimes they’re the same.
For instance, the other site is calling a jump to 19s interval on Sunday arvo, yours 17.
Only 2s but that may translate into maybe an extra 4ft wave height??
What do you reckon?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:32am

They might be running a higher-resolution version of the model, hence picking up the long-period fore-runners better, but there's likely only minimal size associated with that 19s band (in this case anyway), so it wouldn't make too much of a difference.

We'd have similar sized energy for the 17s band I'd imagine, but again this case the models are combining an initial mid-period pulse for the morning with the longer-period groundswell energy and over-forecasting the size at midday. Looks like it'll be fun Main Break early with the swell arriving proper around midday and large, step-ladder sets into the afternoon.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:55am

What are your thoughts on that wind Sunday morning Craig, and Margs locals?

might take some time for that more easterly component to kick in?

and thus have that real southerly drift to the ocean sea state?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:00am

The morning looks OK, variable E'ly offshore but likely to be some slight morning sickness/wobble.

Looks like it'll get tricky late afternoon with a fresh S/SW sea breeze, shifting S/SE late while strengthening as a high ridges in along with the building swell.

The timing looks a touch delayed and peak in size more so 10-12ft late in the day. Still a good 6ft+ in the morning though.

kookfactor's picture
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kookfactor Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 12:05pm

Winds are light iso map looks like slight easterly flow from Saturday night so should clean up ok for a start....swell fills in

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:00am

They may want to ride a "Da Claw" in honour of Tom

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:03am

The other site is hopeless for predicting face height but pretty good for period and direction. They’re calling a jump to 19s then down to 17s in the arvo plus slightly more west in the direction.
It’s only a temporary jump in period but I’d guess if it stayed up at 19 it would be significantly bigger than 17...or have I got that wrong.
Winds look ok but strong offshore in the afternoon.
Got a feeling JJF will use his normal board on the rights in the morning then (hopefully) will have no choice but to pull out the bigger one and surf the lefts in the afternoon

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Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:07am

Yeah it would be bigger with that difference in period but again depending on the amount of swell associated with it. We could be talking 2ft or as you said 4ft. This event is hard to analyse as there'll be a mix of swells for the morning in any case.

The initial swell for the morning will be SW and the groundswell proper more SW shifting S/SW.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:23am

JJF is in heat 3.
probably surfing wobbly 6ft Margs.

won't surf again that day.

Likely won't see him in anything big because swell drops with improving conditions Mon/Tues.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:29am

Bummer. His advantage is probably lost then.

Thanks Craig

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freeride76 Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:39am

I don't think so.
He's got an advantage at Mainbreak at all size levels.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:58am

Loss of relative advantage.
Might be bigger than 6ft Sunday morning.
Numbers for Sun are about the same as today for Margs but with better winds, so see what it’s like this afternoon and it should be roughly same size Sun morn. Sun arvo significantly bigger than it’s been all week, will be interesting to see what materialises

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Craig Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 9:03am

Today is also mid-period energy, Sunday morning will be stronger though not true groundswell. I'd say 6-8ft by kick off.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 9:13am

A wuss like me would probably call it more like 8ft, esp if one landed on my head but either way it looks bigger on Sun morning than today or tomorrow so will be interesting to see what eventuates.
If the winds cooperate Sun arvo will be fascinating

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freeride76 Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 9:17am

JJF's 2017 era defining performance at Mainbreak was in 6ft surf.
His win in 2019 was 4-6ft surf.

That's where the performance advantage over the rest of the field was most evident.

I'd reckon that advantage would be lessened, not heightened by big(ger) surf due to the luck factor involved in a 30 minute heat.

For example, say its 10-12ft.
First ten minutes of the heat there is no waves.
Then JJF gets caught inside by a 12ft clean-up set, spends 5-10 minutes grovelling inside, needs to catch the ski back out.
Another lull.
Now there's 10 minutes to go and he needs a score.

Mikey Wright, meanwhile has picked off two solid lefts for a pair of 6's.

see what I mean.

Bigger surf, paradoxically, increases the luck factor, like random beachbreaks.

6ft+ Mainbreak, with the rights on song, is where JJF has a clear gap between himself and the rest of the field.

imo.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 10:30am

JJF paddle surfing 25 foot Himalayas over the Hawaiian winter probably gives him a slight edge wouldn't you think FR?

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:44pm

Mikey paddled that same swell out himalayas; amongst JJF and co...

udo's picture
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udo Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:53pm

Mongrel Mikey on a borrowed board

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:56pm

Yeah udo, thats it. He is a beast.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 8:24pm

Was aware that Mikey was, the rest of the top 32 weren't, which i'm assuming FR was talking about? Hence JJF, a former Eddie winner, on every big paddle swell he can get into is a clear favourite. Mikey and maybe one or two others aside on the tour, looking at that photo accompanying this forecast, who apart from those guys is going to be willing to position themselves in and on the ledge when a set rolls in to take off and be in a position like that pic. JJF has the knowledge, the positioning, and the guts to put himself in there. It would be a lot of bad luck for that experience to go against him. Anyway, it's a fun topic to debate and time will tell! Swells looking so south and that SSE wind swell in the mix gonna make it ugly Sunday arvo if it is Mainbreak by my guess.

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tylerdurden Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 9:24am

Fair enough but I reckon he’s the best big wave surfer on the CT hands down with possible exception of Kelly.
I guess that’s why they ran hour long heats on the (ex) BWWT

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 10:09am

Hour long heats or overlapping heats would take out some of the luck factor and improve odds for JJF.

Have they ever run overlapping heats at Margies?

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Ben Harding Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 11:57am

Lotta pressure on the commissioners (Perrow?) shoulders to get this right and run it any chance they get, at any place which is pumping they get. Fingers crossed whoever captain's the ship doesn't fcuk it up...

Jono's picture
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Jono Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 12:40pm

Jessi Miley-Dyer makes the call now. and yeah bit of pressure to get it right.

eat-your-vegies's picture
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eat-your-vegies Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 12:49pm

Jjf may have an advantage .....
Unless he gets morgs again

Ha ha

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 1:13pm

So it’ll be that rd2 losers round run in the big stuff hey? It just makes it even more gnarly

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Jono Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 1:26pm

Haha extra motivation to not be sent out again as the arvo swell pulses.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 1:29pm

be interesting to see how they schedule the mens and womens rounds.

loofy's picture
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loofy Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 1:49pm

I miss you brother.

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Fraser G Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 3:17pm

Go Cy ...RIP Tom Hoye...was living with Cy's parents when he was born shit time flies

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 5:41pm

When is it due to start?

Freeride not sure I agree with your reasoning on JJF having less advantage the bigger the swell is.
I get where you’re coming from but he’s the best big wave surfer in the world I reckon.
If he gets the waves, he does the best turns, he wins.

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 6:58pm

Waiting period kicks off Sunday

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:25pm

Thanks

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:35pm

Just in case mother nature decides to be a pain and going by the last coupla comp's in OZ... Would WSL please please please go over lapping heats. IMHO much more entertaining when heat swells get quiet and a surfers are a getting frothy chomping the bit...

dawnperiscope's picture
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dawnperiscope Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:39pm

Totally agree, is there any reason not to do it? Running straight through to the finals in good - great surf is the way to do it on every level (imo)

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Finnbob the terror Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 7:34pm

No offence freeride but why are you assuming that JJF is going to be the unlucky one. Sure there is a touch of luck in solid surf or random beach breaks, but that's where you make your own luck. I recon JJF is pretty good at getting himself in lucky situations, big, small and random surf. Actually, he's probably one of the best in the world at that, if not the best.

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Greenfrog Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 10:26am

I’m with those above for the overlapping heats. Big main break has a huge potential take off area with both lefts and rights inside waves and bomb sets out the back plenty of room. Love how they do it at pipe always something going on and can churn through the heats.

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campbell Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 11:20am

BIG shark sighted this morning at back of Gnarabup (couple hundred m from contest site) , heaps salmon and bait fish around too.

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evosurfer Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 12:45pm

Not Australia with out a big beautiful grey local showing up.
Stay big and dangerous for a Jack Robertson John John final.

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Mcface Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 12:49pm

Nice one Craigos on the ABC article, good stuff.

Never been particularly into pro surfing but I've been enjoying the newy and narra contests due to being closer to my stomping ground. Keen to see them get flogged in the South West though!

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Craig Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 1:47pm

Yeah thanks!

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freeride76 Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 1:50pm

what ABC article?

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simba Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 2:12pm

wow Craig .......your famous

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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 2:44pm

“It's going to cause a few nerves for sure because here in Margaret River, even the small waves are big, so this is really going to test us," she said.
haha. Nailed it Sally. Hope they run through the whole day tomorrow chicks in morning, blokes in arvo.

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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 2:56pm

I think they will need to BD, only have sun, mon and tue before the weather turns on wed.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:30pm

Ahh awesome. Could actually be one for the history books if all things come together..and they don't mind a bit of wind.

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Blowin Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:03pm

I want to see the chicks out in the height of the swell. Let’s see what they’re made of when it counts. How bad do they want to be professional surfers?

One reason I couldn’t be a pro surfer is cause I’d shit myself when the waves get too big for me. It’s all good when your biggest problem is sexy fans rubbing their reef oil over your wax as they try to get close.....these crew want exclusive access to Australia’s waves then they can damn well have a go when conditions get hardcore.

Gladiators ready!

Nothing but respect when they charge, nothing but disdain when they pull back after endless claims in two foot waves.

I don’t care for the pro surfer’s shaved chests or their shit splitter bikinis or their warm up routines or the personalities of their entourage. I can get that shit anywhere - just give me the best surfing by the best surfers. Let’s see them do shit that hardcore locals can’t. If pro crew are dogging waves that old locals would be paddling into, then they should have to hand their pro credentials back and admit they’re in the wrong business.

I’m only half joking.

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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:18pm

Totally agree with you Blowin, be interesting to see 14yr Willow put them to shame or the 60 yr local chargers

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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:20pm

Time for the pro women to step up to the Box if its on

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goofyfoot Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 5:43pm

After the show the ladies put on at Pipe a few months ago I wouldn’t be holding your breath on them performing at the Box

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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 6:55pm

Indeed GF

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simba Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:11pm

Well equal prize money = same risk vs reward for men and women .....if the girls want to be recognised for their skill as pros they will have to surf the same waves as the men....going to be interesting to see who steps up in both men and womens......good luck to them.

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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:23pm

I didn't notice any infrastructure at NP yesterday and whole boat ramp area is under repair so I presume NP is not in play.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:32pm

quite easy for them to not put the girls out in anything too solid.

They run the the girls tomorrow morning in 6ft+ surf (not massive) then the guys in the arvo and Mon.

Put the girls back out on Tuesday in clean 4-5ft waves.

Not saying that will happen, but it easily could.

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shoredump Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:37pm

Yeah sounds most likely

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Blowin Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:48pm

Sounds likely. I’d rather watch someone have a proper go and if that’s the men, so be it. Would be disappointing on an equality front though. I’m sure there’s some of the chicks who want their stance on the topic to be more than just words.

Reckon there’d be more than a handful of chicks and blokes quietly hoping their potential to strut their stuff is staged on fluffy corners in a sheltered bay. I don’t blame them but if you want to dance, you’ve got to pay the band*.

*Still a great line by Matt Warshaw. Marred only by his mispronunciation of Cronulla.

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freeride76 Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 3:54pm

I dunno, it ain't Teahupoo or big Pipe.

I think it's being over-egged a bit.

Can't see anyone in the draw, maybe Ribeiro or Toledo, who might struggle in 10ft+ Mainbreak.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 4:06pm

What about the box though?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 5:28pm

yeah Box is a different story.

my gut feeling is the swell will be too south for it.

Happy to be corrected by someone with more local knowledge.

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 6:59pm

Only see Monday at this stage as a possibility FR

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 8:12pm

cheers SS.
wind looks good.

what odds you give it?

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 8:49pm

Wind direction looks good although strong and high tide around 11:30am so I'm going 60/40 at this stage FR, swell direction might be an issue

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Jamyardy Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:16pm

Mainies certainly aint chopes or pipe, but it will be significantly bigger tomorrow arvo than the average comps they have at chopes or pipe, and the wind tomorrow arvo and Monday will be pretty strong and hard to deal with. Should be some entertaining viewing tomorrow arvo if they let it run through. And if the swell direction arrives as forecast, my guess is it will be Mainies Sun through Wed.

Edit : Small chance for Box first thing in the morning before the new swell and wind kick in.

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tylerdurden Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 5:28pm

There’s plenty of stories about major hold downs out there.
Jet ski rescue takes a lot of the danger out of it but locals will tell you some horror stories. Long swims back in with a snapped leggie on dark etc

dazzler's picture
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dazzler Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 6:58am

About 20 years ago I lost my board out there when it was 3-4 times overhead.

Worst experience I've ever had in the ocean.

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etarip Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 8:41am

Didn’t lost my board but got the worst hold down of my life. Tried to paddle into a smaller one but couldn’t get into it (on my 6’8” - which felt like a toothpick compared to what most of the guys were on). As I turned around I heard the crew cheering / groaning / hollering / whistling as they saw a set and everyone started scratching for the horizon. Just got under the first one but didn’t stand a chance with the next 3. Managed to grab a little breath between waves but honestly thought I was going to drown, just getting thrashed and held down. By the time of surface I was actually pretty close to shore. Torrid experience.

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goofyfoot Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 5:48pm

I agree FR
Whether it’s men or women if you’re not comfortable at 10 foot Margaret’s then you shouldn’t be on the World Tour

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 4:04pm

Confirmed NP not available so its Margs or the Box

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 5:56pm

Awesome!! And i'm pretty sure 10 foot will be the in betweeners. Nearly 6m @18seconds in the late arvo.......sky scrapers.

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simba Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 5:44pm

so should be on over east around 9.30 ?.....

seaslug's picture
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seaslug Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 7:04pm

I'd say a 7am WA time kick off at the earliest

Jamyardy's picture
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Jamyardy Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 8:21pm

07:20am start I think

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 8:05pm

Onya Blowin.. you are making a pretty strong case towards overlapping heats.
M vs M overlapping.
F vs F overlapping with M vs M heats.
F vs F overlapping.
I couldn't be thinking great waves shouldn't go unridden, all by my lonesome am I?

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 8:24pm

I will be watching with intent that the Aussie and Hawaiian contingent make those pesky Brazilians piss.
I have said it here and now.. and hold my peace for the rest of this event...

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 8:55pm

To all those that have posted.....
"make the chicks surf it. Equal pay. meh. Blah".
You know what you sound like.
A fucken wanker. No a FUCKEN wanker.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:06pm

Forgetting the equal pay stuff, I couldn’t give two shits about that, but, You aren’t interested in seeing the women surf the box?
I’d love to see it, how are they meant to progress in waves of consequence if they don’t get the opportunity?

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:36pm

No mate, it's not that i'm not interested in it.
But crew savaging the chicks for something they haven't even done or not done yet is pure mysoginism.
I think people misunderstand what equal pay means.
The WSL is a business. They have made most stops on tour for both men and women for the reason it makes good business sense economically. Cuts alot of costs and draws alot more eyeballs.
But that doesn't mean the women have to adhere to surfing the same conditions as the men.
The womens world tour is still 20 years or so behind the mens, due mainly to the steeper mountain it took for girls to surf. We don't know much of this though, we're dudes.
So equal pay, means EQUALITY OF HUMANS. Not equality of performance. If it was equality of performance then we would have a mixed world tour of men and women.
I love watching the girls doing there thing in the waves that suit them. They're pushing themselves slowly but surely, on a natural progression. I'm sure many of them would love to surf the Box, but doubt it will be this event.
But people on here, baying for blood, saying they should throw them out at the peak of the swell to prove they're worth paying as much as men,.....even though these same people have no financial input into what they're so outraged about.....
So seeing one of the women getting mowed down by 3 18 foot whitewaters and not coming up again, is that what will make them happy?
So many chicks are trying to tell us to wake up and stand up and not let this narrative keep happening. If i'm the outlier on here, so be it. Fucken hate me.
But the views of men have to change. Women get beaten up on and raped and fucked over by men all the time. Do we pay them less respect because their physiology and flight or fight responses are different to men?
Pull your heads in fellas. Not stoked to read that at all.
Anyway, looking forward to the comp and whatever it brings.

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:32pm

Spot on bluediamond. Well said. 100% agree. Thanks.

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:37pm

cheers Bnkref! Appreciate it. Aloha legend.

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:19pm

I am hooting for the girls.

Do they always have to compete in under waist high lulls? No way bring it on...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:38pm

Not sure why you’d hold that opinion. There’s plenty of blokes who’ve tried to foster a career without a starting point in bigger waves and they get cooked relentlessly. Look at Felipe Toledo. Even Kelly Slater and to a lesser extent Tom Curren had major question marks dogging the early days of their careers. Why should female professionals be any different?

There’s plenty of women who surf big, heavy waves with aplomb. Why should those on the WCT, who are supposed to be the tip of the spear for surfing talent, be exempt from such expectations?

Your low expectations of the women sound an awful lot like damning them with faint praise to me. Verging on condescension in my book. Pauline Menscer went hard decades ago but you want the current crop of women to be comfortable with your pandering attitude?

The best in the world shouldn’t be MADE to surf anything, they should be chaffing at the bit to display their skills. How else do you expect progression if you’ve got blokes like yourself patting them on the back saying “ There, there love, go wait in the car and watch the men surf.” That’s the real sexist bullshit the world needs to get away from.

These aren’t the local board riders junior girls.

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:44pm

Great points you bring up. Do I want to be comfortable pondering my attitude? No. But those stand alone events where women get the waves to themselves and it pumps through the competition window get me and my only daughters imaginations swirling...
Every time.
Though notwithstanding the interests of safety when is too big too big.
Pipeline 2021 was an interesting show in this case. I often felt fear, an I'm only watching.

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benjis babe Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:13am

thanks bd, like I said before....here we go again, blah blah blah about chicks

enough

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:39pm

Cheers BB! Super appreciate your back up. Fark, would be so good to see more female representation on here. You're a legend. Hope you're getting a few. Yew!

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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 9:40pm

And then there's Blowin. The enemy. This fuckhead had two big wave surfers, chargers, banned from this website. While those two are banned, Facto and Michael Bourne, this guy is the enemy. Ironically, he's calling for blood, while saying, i'd never surf that. Go figure!!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 10:01pm

The flogs had themselves banned. There’s a term to describe the way you claim that I had them banned , it’s called talking shit AKA lying . I never said a thing about it to anyone that wasn’t written on these pages. So they are your mates....whacko. Go cry yourself to sleep, mate. Your whining offers me nothing of interest and neither do your insults.

Go the girls. Charge the peak of the swell and prove to this pandering dinosaur that his opinions belong back in the Victorian era. Don’t let the low expectations of others put a ceiling on what you think you can achieve.

burzum's picture
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burzum Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 10:08pm

That being said, I think the better approach was to run the Man And women separately. Running concurrently is always going to result in comparisons, unfair or otherwise.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 10:11pm

Blowin ...Oh, so it's go the girls now?? Hmm. Anyhooo.....again, go figure.

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Blowin Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 10:55pm

It was always go the girls. You’re the one stuck in the 1950’s who thinks women should be safely back at home. I was talking about the clowns at the WSL who may have the same throw back mentality as yourself and who would wrap the chicks in cotton wool rather than give them the option of charging.

So what if some chicks dog it? No one would dare suggest not sending Flores or JJF out in big left pits cause Toledo isn’t comfortable. Why do it to the girls and deny some of them the chance to push themselves and women’s surfing?

Safety of everyone is first and foremost, and it’s only a surfing competition, but if you ever stop to wonder why you’re concerned for the safety of the chicks at 10ft Mainbreak but not the men at 10ft chopes it’s because.....you’re a sexist who thinks women are poor , fragile, inferior beasts who need Bluediamond’s seal of approval before they take shit on.

You literally said as much which was pretty fckn jaw dropping.

I’d love to be there when you told Keala Kennelly all about her weak flight and fight response . She’d hopefully put a patronising sexist like yourself in your place quick smart.

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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 11:28pm

Ohhh, here we go. You completely have changed the tone of what you were saying in your previous posts. Have you changed them too? Wouldn't be a first. Just admit it, you hate chicks. No worries but just say it. How did you go from saying make the chicks surf it when it's as big as it gets to show they deserve to be paid as much, to...you're stuck in the 1950s...what would Keala say. I reckon i know what she'd say to you. Fuck you're boring.

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bluediamond Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 11:50pm

And lets keep things in perspective as you try to twist my words to suit you.
The girls are surfing in the event...and it's gonna be big and challenging and confronting for them.....but there's a mens and womens event running at the same time. You, Blowin, not the WSL, not me, probably not alot of the women or their fans want to see the women put out in the most severe conditions for your own pleasure, to prove some point about equality. They're gonna get tested. But what about you? You are full of so much wisdom about how much people should charge, yet have admitted you wouldn't. So really, can you be of any credibility on the subject? You'd make a good politician Blowin, i'll give you that much. You know how to turn your own shit into some sort of gold. But not to me. I and many, especially the ones you had banned, see straight through your manipulation.

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Blowin Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 6:44am

Here’s a heads up, dumb cnt. There’s no longer an edit option. So everything I said is still up there. Now you can go back and show me exactly where I said the chicks need to show they charge as hard as the men because they get paid the same.

I’ll save you the four days it takes to read my five odd posts cause you’re slow AF. You won’t find it cause it’s not there. It’s not there cause I never said it.

You only thought it was there cause you’re a stupid cnt who can’t comprehend what people say without overlaying your stupid inbred preconceptions over what’s written. It’s actually you twisting the words, moron. Go check and confirm.

And here we are. Gone from a pleasant discussion without provocation, to be being called a FUCKEN wanker, a fuckhead, a sexist misogynist, someone who hates chicks and.....the enemy(!!!).

So Bluediamond, you silly cnt. Why don’t you crawl back under your rock with your complete lack of understanding.

Fact is that you’re a pandering old clown who wants chicks hidden away cause you think they’re incapable. What do you think the entire feminism movement was about?

Your words : Girls don’t have the physiology to charge. Girls have a weak fight or flight response. Girls have a comfort zone we shouldn’t expect them to leave. Girls don’t want to charge they just want to do turns in little waves......listen to yourself.

It seems like you’re so involved in being a brave male white knight in order to virtue signal, that you’ve utterly missed the point of the empowerment of women that everyone else is striving to encourage.

Go read a book ya slack jawed cnt.

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:47am

Booooo.
Haha. Did Swellnet make that rule up about not editing posts because of you Blowin??? ha! Well done!!! The blowin rule. haha.

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Blowin Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:08am

Listen clown, you come on here with your aggro and your insults, you talk shit and lie about people, you carry on like a sanctimonious twat with your misplaced moralising and when it finally dawns on you that you’ve been bleating crap about what women can or can’t do according to Bluediamond you slowly start to walk it back in order to save yourself a sliver of dignity. And now you’re whining on about some other nonsense.

You’re a grub. Quit while you’re behind.

Why not get down the contest site and tell the female competitors what you really think and that they’d be safer back in the kitchen.

You officially cease to exist as of now.

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 12:41pm

HA! Blowing a little harder than normal there aren't you? Wrong pills this morning?
Who's backing out of an argument. I completely stand by my points.
I'm very very happy you don't like me, whoever you may be. I would hate for someone like you to like me. Happy to not exist. Yew!

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belly Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 5:55am

Para 2 sentence 1; language?
Para 2 sentence 2; Fiji 2012.

Not specifically aimed at Blowin but I feel there is a tendency of the predominant male posters to bring male standards and historical surfing culture, ie aggression, and apply it to women's surfing. Whilst women's surfing displays elements of this culture I would say it's not their core elements. I'm thinking more grace, flow, and even comradery. Accept and admire for what it is, they are on their own path and if they don't feel safe thats ok. There are many women living in homes that don't feel safe with men. They don't need to be belittled. If you can't encourage them then don't say anything.

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memlasurf Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 8:59am

Belly i am going to be a dick: comaraderie.

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batfink Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 4:29pm

Camaraderie, my dear memla. :-)

Thought about correcting his spelling but held back, but then ...

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memlasurf Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 4:40pm

Ha well done I stuffed it up too. Thanks I am continually trying to improve both spelling and grammar. My spelling used to be better pre computers, my grammar was always shithouse. Camaraderie: French word which looks like where comrade came from hence my faux pas I am thinking.

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batfink Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 4:59pm

Yep, French, confused with the Russian comrade, same derivation no doubt but I couldn’t be bothered checking where they came from. Schoolboy French classes to the rescue.

belly's picture
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belly Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 5:04pm

Looks like I got pretty close to the Russian spelling at least ;-)

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memlasurf Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 5:09pm

Ha, for sure here is me trying to correct you (with no offence intended) and I butchered it as well, with batfink to the rescue for both of us. Got to love the English language when it comes to words - 171,476 words in current use (and 47,156 obsolete words)...so say Oxford.

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memlasurf Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 5:04pm

Which I failed miserably.....c'est la vie

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Remigogo Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 10:13pm

And so... may the swells continue, with winds favourable for all!

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freeride76 Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:03am

I don't think drawing a parallel between domestic violence and women pro surfers being paid to surf big waves is appropriate at all.

Of course they won't feel safe.

Thats a universal feeling in big waves.

Fact is women are booked now for teahupoo, and will probably become part of the Pipe event, so suggesting we try and keep them wrapped in cotton wool at Margs is not really a viable option, in the long or even medium/short term.
The game is changed and from what I'm hearing from Caz Marks and Carissa Moore; they are ready, willing and able.

They have skis, they have safety protocols and women have proved they have the physical capabilities to take it on.
The mental game is a challenge for everyone.

Sure it's going to expose some uneven performances in the roster, so be it.

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belly Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:13am

That was not the parallel I was drawing. The parallel was with some of the posts in this thread, two different things. You're extrapolating it into something different, that is what happens on the internet.

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:36am

Re read what i wrote FR for the context of what i was trying to say.
Not trying to draw parallels. Just saying women are asking us to listen, have been for a long time, but we're constantly not listening. Domestic violence etc continues to happen because of this. Telling women what we men think they should do when it comes to the surfing and the waves they surf is another form of not listening and being the dominant gender. I do see parallels in that.
Adding the physiology and fight or flight may have been a flawed argument, but there are still part of that you can't completely ignore.
Of course there's heaps of big wave chick surfers. But the womens world tour is on a slower curve. Seeing them charge would be awesome, but not throwing them into the most challenging conditions on offer just so we can maybe see them drown. That's what my post was about, addressing the people who just want to see that, for the sake of 'equality'. Not holding the chicks back from charging. That's their story to write though, not ours and as Belly pointed out above, in their own time, and at their own progression. The big wave surfing chicks are helping to push that progression anyway. They are leading the way for the girls on tour to show what's possible. But why not enjoy the show until then. I do.

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freeride76 Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:45am

"That's their story to write though, not ours and as Belly pointed out above, in their own time, and at their own progression."

Not really though.

It'll be the WSL that makes that decision, as they have for Teahupoo and Pipe.

Of course individual surfers can decide whether to paddle out or not, or catch waves or not, but the historical moment is bigger than any of them.

This is happening.

There's 12/13 year old girls out there charging way harder than me.

The game has changed.

No one is going to drown with modern safety equipment, protocols and skis everywhere.

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belly Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:47am

Yes, and thank you FR76 for calling them women. They've not chicks or girls.
Edit; posted same time as above, girls ok in context ;-) :-)

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 8:13pm

FR, to answer to your post....at the end of the day, equality is about human equality. I'm not the one to educate about the struggles of the pro and non pro surfing female....they just made a movie about it. There's plenty to listen to.
I completely support them being pushed and for sure, put them out in the big stuff. It's the tour. That's what they signed up for. What i don't stand for is crew, who self admittedly haven't ever surfed proper big surf, calling for them to be thrown out in the biggest waves, right in the peak of the swell, 'make them earn their money'. What the fuck? Are girls supposed to prove to us they're just as worthy humans as us?? They have a men's and womens world tour exclusive to each other for a reason. If not, why are they not combined. Answer me that!? Incidentally, the girls tour is a huge success. Why should the corpos get all the money and the girls not put their hands up and say, c'mon. I have no problem with it. I'm astounded people who have no financial into it actually feel put out.
I lost an ex girlfriend and someone very close to my heart last year through domestic violence. She took her own life but her hand was forced. One of the most beautiful people i've ever known. It's been something that's fully rocked me for the last 18 months. I'll never stand by and listen to a man asserting his dominance over a female in any situation, ever. That's what my gripe is. Not on the progression of female surfing. I definitely think there's a few girls on the tour who are being shown up in the big stuff. And it's good. But to suggest they should be thrown to the lions when the ocean is the most violent to show they deserve to be paid as much as men??? Are you fucking kidding me?? What sick mind thinks that?

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belly Monday, 3 May 2021 at 8:09am

Wow that's heavy bd, sorry to hear for your loss.
Takes courage to speak up on these issues, I was just following your lead.
Putting oneself out there to be knocked down.
Everyone's story is different and we'll get there ;-)

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 8:35pm

Sorry Belly. No offence intended. I call men dudes, fellas, blokes, etc all the time. It's not something i really think of but will try to be more mindful of it...but can't promise anything! I call my best female surfing chick friends dude. haha. Cheers.

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:02pm

And FR just to add to that, cos i think it's time i exited this platform, but i just wanna make it clear, the girls are fucking insane! Joanne Defay, Courtney, Carissa, Sally, but furthermore, Justine Dupont, Maia Gabiera, Emi Erikson, Paige Alms, Tayla Hanak, Flick Palmateer, Laura Enever, Bethany Hamilton, Moana Jones, Vahine Ferriera, and then Portugal..Europe..u seen how many big wave chargers are coming out of there that arent dudes?? ....there's so many i've missed and the list ooes on and i love watching them surf and their hard charging.. It's inspiring not cos they're women, but because they're surfers. Just hate the bile coming from some people on here about what the women owe the male species. It's pure garbarge.
Fuck it. I'm putting a self imposed exile on myself on SN for a bit cos i know i'm going too hard. Just passionate FR, especially about stuff i've lived through. Always love your perspectives dude. You have a good rational mind and enjoy the way you frame your questions. Yew!

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Ben Harding Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:51pm

No need for a self imposed exile Bluediamond. Your hearts in the right place. You made some good points, so did Blowin. All the historical bullshit got in the way and detracted from a conversation we are all thinking internally about. You boys should try let shit that go, what's it get ya's? Fwiw, I reckon it's only the crew on the very fringes of society who would want to see the chicks hurt or maimed to prove a point. I don't see anyone advocating for that. But I reckon most would want to see them have a crack in the juice.

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bluediamond Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 10:48pm

cheers BH. nah, probably best to slide out now. But appreciate hearing another goood golden perspective. Chat soon mate!

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shaun langlands Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:28am

You are all forgetting about the spartan he loves this stuff

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Roadkill Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:30am

Buzzing, it’s gonna be another beauty comp. I see in the comments, most have written off Gabs.

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geek Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 7:30am

and back to the swell, no signs of it yet at Naturalist or Albany. You can keep an eye on it here:
https://www.transport.wa.gov.au/imarine/naturaliste-wave-data.asp

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Robo Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 8:23am

Should be a good crowd with the max exodus out of Perth coming.

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Hiccups Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:19am

MM having a good dig

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lostdoggy Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 9:44am

yew!
Good to see.

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evosurfer Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 11:10am

This pretty much sums up female contest surfing after my wife and I watched a couple
of heats my wife pops up with these girls suck you can put the tv onto the car racing.
My wife detests absolutely hates car racing.

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jez Monday, 3 May 2021 at 9:21am

There have been some great performances from the women in other comps and to be fair the conditions were pretty average yesterday morning. I like the fact that in the women's comp every wave doesn't end with some kind of insane aerial (for now). I find it more relatable.

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Sheepdog Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 11:46am

OMG the commentary is CRAP. Just talking about olympic sports while waves are being ridden. Name another sport that talks about OTHER STUFF when competition is actually happening

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Remigogo Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 8:57pm

Yes I picked up on that. They need to organise their commentary just like they do in the cricket.

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Spuddups Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 5:42am

Cricket.

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thermalben Monday, 3 May 2021 at 8:10pm

Craig's away today, so I'm on the forecast bench - and I've just updated the West Oz forecast. In short: stacks of swell, but a few tricky periods of winds. But a bloody good forecast if you're a Contest Director, and already have two great days under the belt!

https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/western-australia/2021...

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Distracted Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 6:49am

Does Craig being away have anything to to do with a week of east swell forecast for the east coast?!

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thermalben Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 8:58am

Funny that.. 

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Jono Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 9:52am

Jadson getting to know main break

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by Jadson Andre (@jadsonandre)

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freeride76 Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 6:10pm

What do any Margies locals reckon about the next few days?

will they run in the onshores?

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nick_french Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 6:33pm

Models keep changing but currently 10th,11th and 12th all look offshore you would think at least one of these days would eventuate, meaning there is no need to run in onshores over the next few days. Looks to be light offshores to!

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freeride76 Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 6:45pm

think they need more than one day.

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wally Tuesday, 4 May 2021 at 7:26pm

22 heats still to go (7 women’s, 15 men’s)

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simba Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 5:57am

yes thats why they need to shorten the whole thing....the first round loser should go home no second chance......

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JamesFerguson Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 8:28am

Leave it until the offshore days at the end of the waiting period. Have loved it so far. No need to run in onshore.

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udo Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 3:40pm

Margies swell has hit the Bukit
High tide but Ulu looks beautiful atm

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Jono Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 4:21pm
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lucky-al Wednesday, 5 May 2021 at 6:43pm

Faaark, time to get back to Indo!

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thermalben Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 8:11am
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tiger Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 2:45pm

I remember watching that wave on the webcast, and him seeming a bit rattled before he got on the ski, thought something went wrong. Bummer.

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D-Rex Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 8:37am

Bugger...maybe JJ should take-up a safer sport eg MTB

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thermalben Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 8:51am

Stu's got some great tips!

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thermalben Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 9:18am

Dunno why they're not running today. Here's a couple of frames form our Margs surfcam a few mins ago, (looking at Boatramp bombie) - old mate on the SUP got smoked.



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thermalben Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 9:20am

This set just came through. Gotta be 8-10ft.

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thermalben Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 9:23am

This one feathered on the outside reef, then pitched through on the main reef.

​​​​​​​

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Faunt Leroy Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 10:45am

Margs would be Dr Evil today, lumpy bumpy...

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thermalben Saturday, 8 May 2021 at 1:09pm

Onshores are in now, 15kts across the coast.

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donweather Thursday, 13 May 2021 at 4:39pm

Anyone know what the breaks are like they'll be surfing at Rottnest? Lefts/rights/reefs/points?

And how's the forecast looking?

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lampy Thursday, 13 May 2021 at 4:59pm

Surfing Strickland's bay. Not a bad wave. Reef break right and left. Left is longer and better
Forecast looking small to average for swell. Winds ok
Expect head high waves

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quokka Thursday, 13 May 2021 at 5:07pm

Would have been some solid ones out there today, albeit a bit crossshore