La Niña, where the bloody hell are ya?

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

So many questions, and all wanting the same answers.

Over the last month I've fielded a few queries along the lines of: "Where are the cyclone swells?" and "Where's La Niña gone?".

While here at Swellnet, we're always quick to point out that cyclones aren't necessarily favourable swell producers, as discussed here, the lack of cyclones (for now) is still a good talking point.

Climate teleconnections (links between climate patterns across large distances) such as the El Niño/La Niña Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) don't just play out over weeks, but we see them evolve and influence the climate and weather patterns over months and across seasons. In regards to ENSO, the current La Niña signal, which reached a peak through the central Pacific Ocean around November, is still strong, but closer to us around the Date Line (180 degrees of longitude) the cool sea surface temperature anomalies are only just reaching a peak.

As a result, most climate models have La Niña persisting through March, with a 65% chance that it'll hang through until May. That's another four months away so there's still a long way to go in regards to how this will play out over the coming months. Add in the lag of warmer Coral Sea water feeding south with the East Australian Current and the effects should be felt well into winter.

Now, while this La Niña hasn't been a typical one per se, with starts and stutters, what we should be keeping our eye on is the wave of tropical activity that helps activate and nurture tropical activity across our region. This is known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and it last passed through during December, bringing the large rainfall totals to most of the country while also feeding the deep costal trough that brought the large storm surf to south-east Queensland/northern NSW and also spawning Tropical Cyclones Yasa (severe) and Zazu in the western Pacific Ocean.

The chart below shows where the MJO has been around the Earth (at tropical latitudes) through December (green) and January (dark blue). The perspective is that of looking from the North Pole with the MJO peaking just east of us mid-December, leading to the formation of Tropical Cyclones Yasa and Zazu, weakening before then popping back up in the Indian Ocean.

While south-east Queensland and northern NSW have offered fun, persistent levels of easterly trade-swell along with favourable winds the past couple of weeks, there hasn't been any significant developments since the coastal trough in December.

This can be largely put down to the MJO weakening and moving back across the Indian Ocean as shown above. Looking ahead though, the MJO is currently strengthening across the Indian Ocean and this will lead to the formation of a cyclone or two which will track west towards Madagascar through next week.

Over the coming fortnight this strengthening MJO signal is forecast to move east towards us and this will bring that injection of tropical instability to the region. With this we'll hopefully see the trade-pattern kick back in late in the month/February and depending on the strength of the MJO, likely a cyclone or two.

So sit tight and work around the coming southerly swell episode due next week across the eastern seaboard, with trade-swell likely to follow.

Comments

donweather's picture
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donweather Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 2:54pm

Well into winter..... did WSL already know this when they rescheduled the quiky (now called the billabong) pro for May 2021......

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 3:09pm

Excellent work.

Thanks Craig.

ruckus's picture
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ruckus Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 3:28pm

BOOM

EastSwellPls's picture
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EastSwellPls Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 5:26pm

Intelligent and awesome breakdown, a facinating read.
We've all been good, Huey's out there and knows it!

sangsta's picture
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sangsta Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 5:26pm

Thanks Craig, great stuff.
So the Pacific has lost its MoJO! That makes sense to me.
Need that strong MoJO back on the east coast please.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 6:01pm

Nice write up Craig.

hate to be that pedantic prick but..... "and also spawning Tropical Cyclones Yasa (severe) and Zazu in the Coral Sea".

Yasa and Zazu were South Pacific cyclones, not Coral Sea cyclones.

Neither of them got within a thousand K's of the Coral Sea.

Coral Sea hasn't spawned any cyclones this year 20/21.

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 6:41pm

Ahhh yes. To true! Always keeping me on my toes. 

bbbird's picture
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bbbird Sunday, 24 Jan 2021 at 4:01pm

thar she blows off the starb'd......a double barrel cyclone; wax ye gun.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs

simba's picture
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simba Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 6:55pm

Fr cracking the whip......keep you blokes in line

vicbloke's picture
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vicbloke Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 7:12pm

Thanks Criag. Informative as always. However, if the predictions are somewhat correct does this mean the Surf Coast will be shite until May?

Walk around G's picture
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Walk around G Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 7:23pm

Please, God, NO! Well into winter you say........I was just about to order a full size gun, I'll bloody put that on ice, this is extremely bad news for us down here.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 7:56pm

How big's full size WaG?

Walk around G's picture
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Walk around G Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 9:17pm

Was originally thinking 7'10 GF but started looking at an 8'0....I really need some serious paddle power for double to triple OH when amongst, deep-water Southern Ocean power. My old faithful, full figured 6'9 is causing super critical, late take-offs, which I think I'm finally too old and unfit for a successful battle plan.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:36am

Yeah nice one, plenty of good shapers over that side to make you one to

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Thursday, 14 Jan 2021 at 7:31pm

I’ll be happy if there’s no large cyclones anywhere near the coral sea.
Thanks for the write up Craig.

dr-surf's picture
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dr-surf Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 9:36am

The last La Niña event I remember being quite Favourable for Phillip Island’s Woolamai and the Mornington Pens from Sept to May. Small swells Yes but fairly consistent NE to E and ESE winds. This event has seen very few Offshore Days. I can’t remember the last time Vic had consecutive days of Quality, Just one day a week or sometimes a fortnight. Scanning the SN Cams only WA has had any real quality in recent times.

aussieguy's picture
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aussieguy Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 at 10:28am

I hear you dr. There's been the odd day (Woolamai was great Boxing Day) but definitely lacking in consecutive days.

trevbucky's picture
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trevbucky Monday, 18 Jan 2021 at 8:33pm

I tell you what! WA has been pretty average too.. really strong white capping offshores and not much swell... the odd day but always windy!

nipper77's picture
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nipper77 Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:31pm

SA been SHIT!!

harrycoopr's picture
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harrycoopr Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 at 10:45am

Make that shit x77

batfink's picture
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batfink Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:34pm

Great stuff Craig. It was clear even to us amateur weather watchers that things had started to cool off, reduced monsoon activity at top end, even the gulf cyclone moved offshore quickly. MJO explains that. Time for water to warm up more and give added impetus to the next round.

Remembering that weather and climate aren't the same, conditions with La Nina and MJO only increase likelihood of cyclogenesis, but nothing is guaranteed. Also, that cyclones being around doesn't guarantee swell. All up though I'm betting there'll be some doozies over the next 4 months. Could be a ripper autumn on the east coast. Sand is even starting to form up better after a torrid winter.

Strap yourself in.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:42pm

Yep, nailed it, should be a good year again!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:51pm

we'll see........to my way of thinking we get the most active autumn/winter La Nina surf patterns on both the lead-in to the Nina and on the way out.

I'll put 1999 (way out of 98 La Nina) and 2007 (way into 2008 La Nina) up as my canonical examples.

and 2020 (way in).

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 5:54pm

? Cracking 2021 winter on way out.

We shall see eh

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 6:14pm

As mentioned in articles last year but the flow in effects into autumn and winter seem to be goodens for the East Coast. 2011 as a standout. 

B.B.Blitz's picture
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B.B.Blitz Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 8:27pm

Love it, shaping up to be a classic late Summer\Autumn\Winter in Queensland ie Australia day done and dusted and all the holiday makers piss off and the surf turns on.How many times have we seen this pattern over the decades?, justice for locals who have to put up with the hordes over Summer.

Rod Clarke's picture
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Rod Clarke Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 11:02pm

Didn’t we see strange patterns during the last La Niña also with water temperatures through the top of Australia coming down from the Indian monsoons changing what we thought we knew?
I’m not the expert that others are but what we once thought were somewhat predictable southern oscillations seem to be changing due to rise in the water temperature of things like the east coast current.

scott.kempton's picture
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scott.kempton Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 at 8:57am

Stuff summer Autumns always the best time for waves up here predominantly SE winds and gone is the never ending northerly . Not sure what last year's cycle was but Autumn and Winter was never ending in Qld . Just need the sand to return in the right places and not get trashed by those local Storm troughs like the last one in December

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Sunday, 17 Jan 2021 at 12:29am

Meanwhile, Hawaii's had one of their best seasons ever...swell after swell and good winds. A huge one due overnight.
I thought La Nina was generally considered no good for Hawaiian winters, but maybe i had it back to front with El Nino?

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 17 Jan 2021 at 1:16pm

Yeah I replied to Steve in the other La Niña article, here is my reply..

"Yeah it's fascinating and not a Niña setup at all. The Northern Hemi activity looks to be linked to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that took place at the start of the month..

You can see the disruption in the below diagram, this is the AO (same as the AAO/SAM in the Souther Hemi), and you can see the disruption filtering down from the upper atmosphere (light blue) down to the surface over the coming couple of weeks..

That doesn't explain the bombing lows that generated the Mavs swells last weekend though. And these SSW events usually impact the Europe and Asia regions. Trying to find out more."

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Monday, 18 Jan 2021 at 7:41pm

Cheers Craig!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 17 Jan 2021 at 6:44am

no, you're right BD.

North Pac looks like a classic full blown Nino.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Sunday, 17 Jan 2021 at 9:03am

Yeah interesting. Thanks FR. Quite bizarre.

mac396's picture
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mac396 Sunday, 17 Jan 2021 at 8:38am

Extremely interesting article on the MJO Craig. I deploy Underwater Gliders in the ocean with CSIRO Marine Research so am generally interested in ocean temperatures/climate change etc. as the data we collect is used to calibrate the models and also at times the remote SST sensors on satellites. Until now I had not heard of the MJO so thanks.

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 17 Jan 2021 at 1:17pm

Awesome, and no worries!

surfstarved's picture
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surfstarved Monday, 18 Jan 2021 at 4:01pm

To hell with the Eastern Seaboard, what's it going to bring to the southern coastline? Hopefully a day or two of offshores to offset the soul-destroying run of southerlies we've been subjected to.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Monday, 18 Jan 2021 at 6:54pm

Yep feels like the roof is going to fly off at the moment. Blowing a fricken gale from the SW as per the last week or two seems like.

trevbucky's picture
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trevbucky Monday, 18 Jan 2021 at 8:39pm

Hey Craig how about WA in the medium to long term? WA has been pretty average too recently .. Massive High pressure systems with really strong offshore winds (white capping) and not much swell... the odd day but always windy! Is this also related to old mates ENSO and Julian?

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 at 3:11pm

Will get back to you Trev. 

trevbucky's picture
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trevbucky Wednesday, 20 Jan 2021 at 12:10am

Cheers mate!

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 21 Jan 2021 at 3:47pm

Hey Trev, so looking at some of the long-range forecasts, it looks like the blocking high that's led to the lack of swell and heat-troughs bringing strong offshores will weaken but persist through the coming three months.

February looks like more of the same (hot/windy), breaking slowly down into March... Below are the forecast MSLP charts and probability of higher/lower than normal pressure..

Feb..

Mar..

Apr..

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 at 10:10am

Here's the MJO forecast strength and position for the coming weeks, looks like the models are firming on an increase in activity in our region..

the-u-turn's picture
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the-u-turn Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 at 1:08pm

That's great writing, Craig, for both the lay(wo)man and nerd. Bravo.

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 at 3:11pm

Thanks TUT.

Walk around G's picture
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Walk around G Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 at 5:43pm

Well, there goes my MOJO!

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 at 8:19pm

Ha.

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 21 Jan 2021 at 8:08am

The tropical forecasts are growing stronger and in agreement. Lots of activity on the way for the coming fortnight, but whether they'll be good swell producers is still up for grabs..

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 26 Jan 2021 at 8:41am

Everything's gone to plan so far and we've now got a very active period of tropical activity/swell ahead. Trade swells, cyclone swells and a run of surf that'll really test those shoulders and back!

Here's the latest MJO forecast (strong across the Western Pacific)..

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 8:45pm

There are early signs that we might be heading for back to back La Niña events. Will keep a close eye on developments.

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 10:57am

Craig please make it stop, we beg you. From all of Vicco

brainiac's picture
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brainiac Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 10:55pm

Hey Craig are you talking about a new La Nina setting up that will last through late autumn/winter and in to spring/early summer ?

brainiac's picture
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brainiac Tuesday, 23 Feb 2021 at 10:59pm

and if so , historically when has this occurred ?

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 8:48am

Yep, the 2010-12 was the last and before that 98-01.. Can see them here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/#:~:text=La%20Ni%C3%B1a%3A%201....

Also this analysis here shows the 3 month running mean of the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region.

Basically anything over +/-0.5 is a Nino/Nina signal but only classified if 5 consecutive months running above those thresholds..

brainiac's picture
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brainiac Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 7:01pm

cheers mate much appreciated.

dr-surf's picture
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dr-surf Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 11:31am

Swellnet has been telling Victorians to Suck Eggs for Months. I used to dial in for Good News but it’s All Going to Shit.

Jake pownall's picture
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Jake pownall Wednesday, 24 Feb 2021 at 4:58pm

Craig is the any hope for us surfcoast Viccos in the near future ? We’re all loosing our shit

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Friday, 26 Feb 2021 at 2:06am

Goldie has been "moist" every day since Craig called La Nina.
No! Don't go looking on BOM for rainfall as it's daily sprinkles.
Often short real heavy downpours but seldom long winded dry lightning & thunder
Complete opposite to dry 1hr Electrical Lashings of this time last year's El Nino

So yes! Goldie is full on La Nina in respect to Weather.."Perfect Example!"

tbb will share Pool data only coz it's unusual & helps the case...
Swim in the Pool every day since La Nina..& last year.
Cloud Cover keeps the "Pool" Water Temp down 3-5* on last year cloudless El Nino
Last year was so warm...had to wait until evening & all said it was still to warm.

This summer tbb has often been the only daily swimmer for month of warm days
Water only warmed twice Mid Jan & Mid Feb + only for 3 days or so then cooled.
tbb can only recall those same 2 cloudless days / month (To warm the Pool Water)
Coz each day tbb does backstroke styles & anytime...seldom has sun in eyes.
Reckon it has rained 98/100 days...as said not registering on BOM.
Ultra rare to see a cloudless day...(Opposite to last Summer when clouds were rare!)

However tbb has lived near all his life & this is a casual anomaly going unmeasured.
But as it stands it is a major anomaly due to it's relentless spell of moisture / clouds.
Not into barometers but knows it would pay to check a Goldie guy that's into it!

A more major anomaly surrounds tbb...not sure, but they could very well be linked.
tbb views the sky each swim & noticed the birds went missing a week back?
Birds are near empty in the Sky but thick & noisy in the trees like really really noisy.
Overpowering Calls are fucking wild ...imagine 50 spazz birds in every tree. (Insane!)
At nightfall...you don't here a thing...

Mid summer Massive Bat filled Skies now fly over us to Mountains (Also rare here!)
Again tbb long has a possum/s & they always fight the bats...not this summer?
La Nina has changed a Larger Bat Migration to venture higher...for sure.

This daily Bird routine been nearly a week....Like the Hitchcock Birds Movie.
So creepy that ...lone birds fly low & fast then freakout & backtrack to nest..
They seem to time Sun Glare in Clouds...Almost as if Eagles have their number...
Recall apocalyptic Start of Covid...School traffic / tradies could equally freak them.
For some weird arse reason the birds are camped screaming all day in the trees.

Typically they arrive in the morning & evening + no more than a few species.
Now it's like a Noisy Fruit loops Pack of colour all day long...any / all trees.

Nope! It's not breeding season....think the moisture in the trees is attracting the birds.
El Nino moisture is only present early morn & late arvo...now mid summer day long.
Short drought sipping to All Day Garden of Eden Cocktail Bar in just one season.
Fuck flying about just pig out on the banquet...they're all doin' it!

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 26 Feb 2021 at 3:40pm

Great observations and feedback there TBB. Very observant as well. Love it!

Down in Sydney it's been wet, cloudy, cooler and with much lighter winds more from the south this summer. This means great conditions in Manly and continuous swell from the Coral Sea and Tasman. A great summer of surf!

rich74's picture
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rich74 Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 8:29am

nice insights tbb..but it wasn't actually El Nino this time last year but more of a Indian Ocean dipole/Southern Annular mode type thing impacting the weather in these parts..imagine if El Nino had of cranked as well, that would of been a worry...i think most of the environment is just bouncing back after a few lean years and the rain is causing an explosion of trees flowering/fruiting and insects breeding which flows on to the bigger animals populations that exploit them...i went up to border ranges a few months back and almost every tree in the rainforest was exploding in flowers and fruits, never seen anything like it

ruckus's picture
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ruckus Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 8:41am

So creepy that ...lone birds fly low & fast then freakout & backtrack to nest..

Bahahahahaha

GreenJam's picture
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GreenJam Friday, 26 Feb 2021 at 3:27pm

thanks for those insights TBB, very interesting.

I dont have any similar bird observations, but do concur on the cloud levels. But, and I probably sound like a broken record (after having a whinge on other threads), there's been a distinct lack of good rain here (Noosa hinterland/Mary Valley). Its definitely been a very patchy, if not failed start to this La Nina in places around here. Although having said that, there is a distinct change in the 'feel of the atmosphere' I guess related to those regularly heavy clouds compared to the horrible weather this time last year. I can put my own gauge on that - having to do less hand watering of my small ramshackle nursery.

I'm getting mixed messages. Craig you mentioned earlier that it looks like a back-to-back La Nina is on the cards. But yesterday on the Country Hour there was talk of the La Nina signal weakening, and confirmation of the high patchiness of the rain that is falling, noting up north QLD and parts of central/inland QLD getting very good rain but much of the south east still very dry. One farmer a bit further NW of me noting their dam will run dry in 2 weeks, and ceasing any further small cropping until the good rain comes. They've decided to open up their Rosella crop to the public for the first ever time this weekend, in the hope the crop can be used/sold before the water dries up.

my concern is if we get bugger all rain even in what's meant to be a strong La Nina, that doesnt give much hope for future non La Nina years. The last 3 La Ninas each about 10 years apart have all had flood events up this way, maybe its still brewing?

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 26 Feb 2021 at 3:37pm

Oh yeah it is weakening, I was just talking about the possible return of La Niña conditions in the Pacific during winter/spring for our summer/autumn 21/22.

It's 50/50 at the moment it seems, but will keep a close eye on the extended range global model forecasts.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 10:10am

GreenJam, sorry you've been skunked.

been looking at the rainfall decile maps.

Some places, very many places have scored, NENSW in particular.
Lots of places in the Richmond catchment scored record December rainfall, good rain in Jan and more big rain in the last Feb event.

My personal thesis is the NENSW corner is the most sensitive area in Aus to ENSO cycles. If it is La Nina it rains a lot and it gets dry as fcuk in El Nino. It's also sensitive in the pre and post phases of the cycle.
I think because of it's exposure to both tropical and sub-tropical moisture as well as more temperate systems.

You can see the area that really got skunked is that area bounded by SEQLDand extending through wide bay into CQ.
I don't know why.
Except there does seem a long term drying trend there.

You may have a different take, I'd love to hear it.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 10:14am

but yeah, for this region, pretty much a classic La Nina summer.

ultra consistent surf from the Eastern quadrant (mostly) and tons of moisture.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 11:34am

Good mushy season too.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 12:13pm

And frogs. There’s a green tree frog living in my car.

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 12:17pm

We’ve had a few (frogs) but have had to get rid of plenty of toads this summer. Last summer barely saw any toads

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 12:56pm

I’ve been recording frogs all summer for the Frog ID app which is a citizen science initiative from Australia museum.
Found some insanely abundant frog habitat in the flooded paperbark swamps around here.
Many different species.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 2:02pm

Thanx crew but you guys are way more observant with the weather.
tbb only thought to share his micro climate anomaly as to swing Craig's pendulum.
Kind crew wins a Bird watcher bonus that should better define weird atmospherics.

First, more on GreenJam's SEQ hinterland observations - Rain Gauges
Backed that up today on Mum's Tallebudgera ' Rain Gauge...Yep! Wet most days...
Important as it's on the Oceanside creeks of Springbrook Rain Hub micro climate.
Recall Dec 2020... Springbrook copped a record 1m of Rain 5 days
Apparently enough water to supply 3 Oz cities for a year. (Fab Big Wet Vid!)
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSGoldCoast/videos/a-metre-of-rain-has-drenc...
All pleaded with Huey to Stop! Stop! You fuckin mad old bastard! Enough La Nina!

Same rich74...Totally agree with last years extremely weird transition...
Interesting to note the extremes...Hottest days but also coldest May days on record
Craig was onto the Indian weather effect & explained that well....yes, crew are right!

tbb's generalising with both El Nino & La Nina gets us nowhere...
One big Goldie Flood Event & record moist days may not equate to La Nina...Get that!
Excuse housebound tbb! Crew have gone next level so tbb is playing catch up.

So maybe we're seeing this flip Quasi La Nina with entrenched moist Transition.
tbb is sticking to this season being odd...so could buy it's a freaky La Nina transition

Excuse tbb for not being ocean aware of La Nina's mega Tasman southerly busters.
So no...definitely not being blown off the charts...more clouded in.

For the record...
Goldie La Nina usually operates on 30kt 4-5 d S S/E then curl to partial 1-2 d N/E
Often repeated on a near weekly cycle, apart from 3/4 real deep winter pushes...
Oceans well up & confuse surf reports...massive 2m swells with 2 inch wave caps.
La Nina Southerly Swells flood & break wide of Points with huge sweeps.
Crew would say how massive is this! But all fight over very few inside barrels.

The inside runners are fast but often just floaters...nothing seems to bite on the bank.
La Nina doesn't light up Sandy points but fires up Deep Points Noosa/Byron/Lennox
However it ramps inshore South Facing backwash coves & reverse / breakwater lefts.
So for basherz the points are wide rag doll but short inshore heavies come on.
Always tempting with S/W swing but seldom if ever for an hour or more of one day.
The teaming rain would arrive first to glass off that S/E wind/ground swell aspect.
Ocean Water is always like a heated resort pool.

More on those birds...(Right now! Outside as said Midday, they are at their loudest)
Start of covid, tbb reported here that predatory birds were reclaiming the towns.
Each day looking up from the pool Eagles circling high & Crows lining rooftops.

Post Covid & smaller birds may well be reclaiming their neighbourhood...
Maybe their short flights are to be weary of crows & larger birds.
Almost like bird Wars...so busy noisy gang vigil might be to drive the crows back out.
Dragon Flies are now these massive prehistoric man eaters...hide yer children.
They boss pool boy tbb to trawl more pool monkeys to the surface..."More bashing!"

Way up high where eagles Fly...tbb said almost as if Eagles & meant to say that.
As eagles have been missing from daily thermal loop climbs for about 2 months.
Hardly think the smaller birds bother them at that height...so what does?

Again tbb looks high daily & usual arvo thermals aren't doin' it for the eagles.
Large egrets dot the Skies but more so & oddly during the Hotter clear days...
Yesterday "seemed" cloudless & tbb actually paused to observe 3 Egrets / 5 minutes

Crew won't believe this & nor does tbb & nor does tbb expect anyone else to either.
But 2 of those 'higher flying' Egrets vanished mid flight as tbb was gazing at them.
As said, clear Skies & birds vanished into thin air...never saw them again in open sky!
Straight after a Plane flew over reasonably low albeit too high for birds but visible.
This cloud bank/band invisible from ground level sandwiches beneath Aviation level.

Invisible Cloud bank obviously blankets the Eagles / Osprey view & limits thermals.
Again, a fine day to the naked eye but an invisible cloud bank that masks bird flight.
Q: Are the eagles still flying but humans can't see them due to invisible cloud bank?

Also what tbb swears was a clear fine day was anything but >
Reason: Thursday & Today Saturday, both mega cloudy but no wind Friday- Clear?
tbb is not buying those clouds rushed in / out o/n without wind assist.
More like the heat compressed them into a silvery sandwich layer of vapour.
Kinda like we see jet trails are always there but not?
Almost certain that the clouds were compressed but visible from different angles.
Like a rainbow is there but not + Most sun/cloud tricks play off each other!
We also see this trick when the moon disappears behind invisible clouds. All say Aye!

To be fair tbb is not young so eyes may be playing tricks.
Only valid explanation is those birds flew into a long cloud band that "tbb" cant see.
Having said that! tbb can spot whales further out & better than all around every time.
Also spot more Satellites...down Tassie spotted 4 in 4 minutes...(or during One song)
Instinctively tbb's eyes checked below as if they did drop from sky! More impossible?

Those interested...that 3rd bird was visible all the while as it never climbed that high.

Goldie just had a small heatwave & on Wed tbb suffered moderate heat stroke.
Out with Mum and said...it's overcast cloudy...how can it be so hot...it's plain insane!
How bad! Mum dragged tbb to Chem' for Hydralyte...Mum knows best humiliation.

Just saying to Craig's crew, whatever anomaly- it stretches the lower atmosphere.
It's gonna be hard to measure or to record what impact said anomaly may hold.
Like Sally pouring Almond Breeze over her Coco Pops & Fruit Loops (Too personal?)
Qldurrz would say this year's Silly Season copped a dose of Mango Madness.
Nope! tbb that Qldurr shit is even weirder ...
Would you settle for { Subtropical to Tropical Jungle Micro Climate } A bit Less weird!
tbb could've & should've just said that from the beginning... but for anomaly thingy!

More importantly it's been going on unreported for too long not to notice...(A lie?)
Craig & crew have noticed & report on this suss La Nina! Ok! So there's that! Salute!
Whatever weird weather event it is...it should be noted as birds are well onto it!
A concert of Backyard Barometers & Rain Gauges hold yer answer > less so BOM.
We are deadset experiencing a major but "micro" low atmospheric climate anomaly.

tbb actually looks at BOM rainfall data & swears it's some other town's report.
Saying it's rained every day bar one or two but BOM charts closer reflect a drought.

Craig's crew are wise & any low atmospherics are gonna stifle any swell.
Not sure where to source low level data but tbb thinks it would open up a new world.
tbb is confined to a micro climate so can focus on this anomaly as it represents huge.
Still think it is micro so therefore any major climate change effect goes unreported.
Devil is in the detail...
No Cyclones? Then we should be combing over this lull anomaly to the enth degree!
Qld only does Cyclones...so this Airy Fairy shit can just fuck off...We are Qldurrz!
Thanx again #1 swellnet Craig 'n'crew...clearly the best Climate Site.

Can see why [f] thought if they could knock out swellnet they rule the world...
Climate Forecasters swellnet
https://news104.com/health-authorities-bom-posts-go-down-in-facebook-new...
Weather Forecasters swellnet
https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/technology/posts-disappear-amid-faceb...
So yeah...out of all the World Weather Forecasters [f] targeted Craig #1 swellnet.
Craig's fans know why... He's our weather God...so bugger off! avagoodweekend

Craig's picture
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Craig Saturday, 27 Feb 2021 at 10:57pm

Re south-east Qld missing out this La Niña, you can see it clearly here in the rainfall deficit for April 2020 to now..

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 7:15am

exactly, and how stark is the difference when you just go across the border!

the monthly decile maps are even more telling.

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Distracted's picture
Distracted Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 1:26pm

Feel for you Greenjam, tough to watch rain falling somewhere but not at your place. Still time in the season and that tropical low off the Cape could still head south and deliver.
Would have thought Sunshine Coast would always have rain but looks like it is being impacted by the same dry decade in SE Qld discussed in this article.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-28/queensland-family-100-years-of-bo...

Weird how the seasons can switch. In the drought every time rain was forecast it would just disappear. Now, there is so much moisture in the air on the NSW coast, whatever is forecast gets a lot more. Corindi behind Coffs for example got 300mm rain overnight on Thursday.

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freeride76 Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 2:43pm

that tropical low is headed for the graveyard.

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truebluebasher Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 12:59am

tbb will nicely say this bit again....BOM rainfall charts do not reflect current rainfall.
It rains on Goldie nearly everyday/night & BOM's charts won't register this rain?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW4036.latest.shtml
In fact...can say it will rain again tonight without looking...it's now a thing.
If it doesn't then that'd be pretty darn weird & would need explanation...
Can also bet BOM will not register a drop, yet all outside will be wet all 'round.
tbb did well to clear weeds at Xmas > 2 months on a 4ft high weed Jungle on Pavers?
Flat out grasping one...Please! Please! No more Rain...
BOM swear 13 days of Feb we got no rain, strange as it rained everyday/night?
Even 6 of the last 8 days they record as Zero....

But hang on tbb ...maybe this rain is not enough to soil BOM's delicates.
Well, you'd like to think it was as simple as that! But Nope!
Plenty of rain it is...well go on tbb ...how much rain...

Now, because BOM are not up to speed on Rainfall... It's only fair to give BOM a clue!
Gold Coast has had so much rain that both our dams are Overflowing.
https://www.seqwater.com.au/dam-levels
28th Feb 2021 (6:00 pm) Little Nerang Dam [100.3%] Dam is Spilling
28th Feb 2021 (7:38 pm) Hinze Dam [ 101.2%] Dam is Spilling

tbb is only guessing, but reckons you'd need heaps of Rain to overfill both our Dams?
But as BOM reckons...we haven't had much rain so our Dam is half full or half empty.
With Dams overflowing BOM can now use a dark green crayon for Gold Coast...durr!
Steer Clear of "Severely Hazardous BOM Map Warning!"

tbb has not journeyed further into SEQ or over the border so has no idea on such.
Only know that BOM is wildly off the charts & are complete liars with Goldie weather.

"Ha! Ha! tbb! So the weatherman got it wrong, but isn't that his Job?"
tbb also gets caught out often & needs to check a few times.
Don't matter how reliable you swear it is...BOM sold out & it shows!
They strike it rich on Alerts...don't sweat the little stuff!

Something must be clouding their judgement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJae3Q2l-BY

farquarson's picture
farquarson's picture
farquarson Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 8:57am

1279 mm of summer rain at my place on the southern edge of the tweed caldera. Dec 656 mm Jan 241 mm Feb 382 mm . Not too hot either , very few days above 32 degrees.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 9:29am

Wow, solid!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 10:48am

I think Wollumbin has lived up to it's indigenous heritage as the cloud catcher.

Just under a 1000mm in my guage.

Ballina officially 829.

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Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 2:13pm

GreenJam's picture
GreenJam's picture
GreenJam Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 3:20pm

thanks Craig and FR. I look forward to your updates Craig.

FR - I generally agree on your take. I'm certainly no meteorology expert, just a keen observer. Your region I've always thought was definitely a reliable rain area and also perhaps a bit more prone to damaging weather events. Seemed to be the case when I lived down there (your town) for a few years starting 2000 and comparing to what was going on back up Noosa and hinterland area. I'd always thought up here was also pretty reliable with rain, and I tend to think it still is, hoping this is just a short glitch and that trend you note doesnt spread this close to the coast. But I do feel you wont have to go too far further inland (say, to Gympie and its north west) to really see/experience it though, I think its been building around that area for a while.

Those gauge numbers from Farquarson and you are pretty impressive. Absolutely nothing like that here - my gauge, Dec 192 (which was massively welcome after many dry months before), Jan 180, Feb just finished only 36. So you see it was looking reasonable but seems to have died in the arse for now. But even those Dec and Jan numbers arent that great. I havent had any really good rain events (you know, like a 3-400 mm event over a 2-3 day period, which I recall often from years gone by) in 5 years. The first couple of years I moved here, we had those type of events, but nothing even close since. My small dam hasnt overflowed since the last of those good events.

re patchiness - I also note the further reduction in the trend if you go only 20 mins SE of here. My parents are in the Cooroy region, and me just being 20 min NW of there, there is always a rainfall difference. We often compare the gauge totals, they'll generally always have around 20% more from the same stormy afternoon or rainy day/night. I list the rainfall totals from their place for the last while, you see there's still pretty good rain about, with 2019 being the anomaly.

And TBB - more on your constant wetness observation. Something here I've thought a little strange over recent weeks, despite the very hot days (heatwave like just recently), most mornings have been decent fogs or very misty, making, as you say, everything saturated. I've found there is at least 0.5mm in a decent fog, that's how much is consistently in the gauge on a foggy morning and that's what I record. Also had a few 1mm mornings, obviously a bit more drizzle overnight, but dont hear it. I tend to think those fogs/misty nights, despite the low numbers in the gauge, are really helping the grass and trees look pretty good. As the holes I'm digging lately are very dry.

anyway, thanks all for your insights and expert commentary, I love it and will be keeping tuned.
cheers.

January – December 2006 1094mm
January – December 2007 1624mm
January – December 2008 1749mm
January – December 2009 1575mm
January – December 2010 2263mm
January – December 2011 1999mm
January – December 2012 2017mm
January – December 2013 1925mm
January – December 2014 1002mm
January – December 2015 1780mm
January – December 2016 1000mm
January – December 2017 1635mm
January –December 2018 1495mm
January – December 2019 757mm
January – December 2020 1242mm

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batfink Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 3:55pm

TBB, central coast and Sydney etc had a great summer for growing, lots of rain, lots of humidity. Plants and tree growth has been off the Richter, I know, I’ve spent half my summer cutting back overgrowth on trees and shrubs. Bird life has been pretty active as a corollary, and we’re back to having a yard full of spiders that create the equivalent of a harbour bridge every night. Every morning sees me walk around the yard swinging the broom in front of my face to clear the cobwebs, literally. Hate face planting a monster web.

Hasn’t been this active for years. Interestingly, the nearby coles car park has a number of palm trees that are deafening around dusk for the sheer numbers of lorikeets. This year relatively quiet, my guess is that they have found somewhere more attractive with so much vegetation.

Re anomalies, I accept your theory re invisible clouds, although I have seen similar phenomena which I largely explained by heat haze which will make high flying birds disappear in flight. Also, clearly visible birds disappearing as they angle in flight. Just a thought, but don’t discount the phenomenon of air currents, heat haze, invisible cloud idea, the atmosphere plays many tricks on the human eye.

For me it’s been one of the most productive periods for amazing cloud shots, I have added hundreds this summer, been a cloudaphiles dream, which I’ve just looked up and there is a word for it, nephophile. A person who loves nephos! :-)

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batfink Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 3:56pm

Also re rainfall, the BOM just picks up rainfall where the gauges are. Local conditions can be quite different, especially the sort of weather we have had where showers can be torrential in one area and not a drop just down the road. You may be living in a special little micro-climate as well.

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truebluebasher Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 2:14pm

#1 swellnet Craig's exclusive La Nina anomaly...(Stormbirdsong 1)
Punk Rock Birdsong unravels La Nina anomaly...chalmed by burleybodybash'nbuny!p

Firstly thanx to crew for sharing in Craig's anomaly...some real proper reads there!
tbb was on the borderline to throw hands in the air but was inspired by the crew!

Crew deserve an explanation for tbb's off the charts Bird watching antics.
tbb don't usually tune in..but birds have been deafening with their cry for help.
Can report that the weather has grounded them for some time & more!
tbb has learn't that the birds are also suffering a covid length lockdown...not pretty.
Far out! This is serious...tbb could not find answers online, until after field studies.
tbb kickstarted his unfathomobile & warped into inhumane mutant beastie mode.

Let's be clear here! No one! Is onto this ...only Craig & his crew...exclusive stays here!
Rest of Oz are so far up themselves to notice that Birds are also in lockdown.

Birds taught Aborigines Farming, Conservation, Fire Management, Language & more.
#1 swellnet exclusive anomaly examples how the birds can still Weather Bomb BOM.

Goldie weather turned odd with the 1930's Seaweed regurgitation of 2010's.
Recent record freeze in May & Seafoam + Mega Springbrook 1m bucketing.
Goldie / SEQ is in extreme low mode Pea Soup ...a permanent invisible wet Blanket.
What appears as a "Fine day of Blue Skies is a lie...it's 100% overcast"...
This is why the birds are missing from our Skies! (see: Part 2)
Could also explain how birds fall from the Sky on fine days!
Call it a 24/7 fog bank that never leaves & best BOM data cannot record it.

As tbb said...it's invisible to human's naked eye & cameras but it's very real to Birds.
All us human's feel it in our bones & Birds are now grounded for longest ever period.
tbb noticed the low Cloud layering moving in a Xmas...the birds were backing down.
Reckon it could be a 2 month more lockdown with Feb-March worsening.
We're talking about a mid East Coast La Nina handbrake that only Birdsong can tell!

tbb noticed it since Craig's La Nina call & more so since mid Dec Big record Wet...
More importantly that the crew pulled up tbb with retarded transition phase.
That is important as we could be looking at a Mega transition event in it's own right.
As said... tbb is not familiar with bird watching...would buy this as a longer term.

Climate Change Transition phase now kicks sand in the Bullie's faces. "Not Budging!"
Fuck La Nina & Fuck El Nino there's a new player in Town & Fuck Huey's Crew. Wot!!!
Masked Avenger steps into the Arena...(Who the fuck does he think he is!)
More importantly why is he / she picking with Aussie Birds.

With the help of the birds tbb collared this cowardly Weather God...

Yes! Yer surf eating fake Weather God'z head on a stick...salute the birds for that.
Big claim! tbb will next unload all anomaly facts to answer all weird bird behaviour.
Again! tbb never set out to unravel this gloom hanging over our lives more each day.

Scomo's Climate Change God is pulling the plug on Goldie's 15% jobseeker's lineup.
Get back to Work > Dole Bludgerz...Fark!...Craig's crew will restore La Nina Line Ups!

The birds reveal how they outed this Fake Weather God in (Stormbirdsong 2)

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truebluebasher Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 2:20pm

#1 swellnet Craig's exclusive La Nina anomaly...(Stormbirdsong 2)
Punk Rock Birdsong unravels La Nina anomaly...chalmed by burleybodybash'nbuny!p

tbb will first paint the picture of anomaly.

Ground Zero...
Gold Coast Grass is Wet each day with day long puddles as our new norm.
Crew's Rain Gauges are never dry.
The bushes are alive with up scaled Dragonflies & Butterflies...
Reason: Birds will seldom swoop to eat them.
Human cousin walking Birds no longer walk about the Trash Cans or boss roads.

Canopy
Small birds now cluster in trees rather than skies.
Birds dart skimming rooftops between trees very quick to avoid any flight.
None of these birds will fly higher than the tallest tree & even that's rare.
Only the isolated Tall Trees but most clump in forests & yard plantings.
Forever Morn' / Evening bird hours but Midday is now Peak Hour for Birdsong.

Birds vanishing in the Skies
Skies are pretty much empty of birds.
Tough ol' Crows are outta here.
Eagles are trying their best but find it exhausting.
Egrets are fine but alongside Eagles vanish from view mid flight on clear days?
tbb has now recorded this Bird vanishing act 4x in 3 days over S/E direction
3 Egrets vanished on clear days + The Eagle vanished on loop rotation on highest hill.
Meaning these birds were flying thru cloud banks invisible from the ground.
Blue Haze or constant Fog Bank brewed by a constant upstream of Plant Chemicals
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/guides/mtr/opt/air/gifs/blue2.gif
https://www.reddit.com/r/Glitch_in_the_Matrix/comments/50gjtv/birds_disa...
https://higginsstormchasing.com/fog-formations-south-east-qld-causes/
just showing that "Large" Fog banks are common to SEQ...not out of the ordinary.

Ok! So it's all too weird...but tbb can assure you, it's completely natural but ramped.
So yes! Birds disappearing from clear SEQ skies is now a look out yer window thing!
Can view this on any "fake clear" day gazing at egrets.
As tbb lays on pool looking up...you can just make out the danger zone for birds.
It's that tricky to distinguish, it is...you really got look hard...then it looms large...OMG.
We imagine arvo clouds roll in, but they're there all along..day after day after day.
Ask the birds...
BOM record Cloudless days on 100% cloud bank days.
BOM records no Rain when each morning is saturated.
tbb thinks Dams are over flowing due to Invisible cloud bank limiting evaporation.
One could argue No Cloud Rainfall 0mm = Arid (vs) .1mm Dams overflowing
That's the Trick! Transitions need Co-op of Gauges & Burley Barrelometers.

Now...as tbb promised...birdsong will set you straight on their plight...hear their call.

Recall that High Loop Eagle...that can't see any prey thru the Haze / Fog...
Well it or another came down to start a low spiral from tbb's pool area.(Ultra rare)
Before Eagle completed 2nd spiral, a pair of small birds then a relay drove it out.
The day before 3 big crows came to the pool & were chased out just as fast...

What the birds are describing is that their sky has fallen.
All birds are being pressured down to ground Level...Yes! Weeks on end...(A record!)
This pressure is simply too painful & disabling to fly high or even loop or swoop.
All birds are sharing / fighting over ground level habitat...but why so?

These small birds (Swallows) have sensitive ears.
They can't fly when Barometric falling Air Pressure Drops, they take Shelter (Trees).
https://www.almanac.com/content/how-birds-predict-weather#:~:text=Birds%....

Pod...explains...
Low air pressure is less dense due to water molecules blanketing the air space.
Dry air density is needed for Aerodynamic lift for birds to take wing.
Birds will instead camp in trees to reduce resistance & limit heat loss.
tbb was saying that most actually fly cm's over roof tops...bloody scary!

Only when air pressure resumes to normal can the birds take flight.
https://www.audubon.org/news/why-do-birds-avoid-flying-rain
If the crew could only hear today's Bird Song...massive...they are not flying soon.
Gold Coast Birds are screaming for deepest longest low of all time to clear out.
This be wotz blocking yer La Nina Surf folks...A Cyclonic Grave Yard.

But! But! tbb swore he saw Egrets flying off to some make believe cloud bank...
Yes! But! Yes! Ok ! tbb does swear to the Great White Bird's magical Vanishing Act.
This from earlier...Egrets have Powder Down & can fly in 100% moisture laden air.
A shiny silvery Magician's coat is the secret to disappearing into a cloud bank routine.
https://ornithology.com/birds-flying-in-the-rain/

BOM: Forecaster Gabriel Branescu said a quick canvas of his office found nobody knew of science backing up the claim that birds made good forecasters.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-27/storm-birds-wet-weather-predictio...
Note BOM Godz live in an office (vs) Birds live in the Atmosphere... (No match!) durr!

Army are steppin' up the Rollout so VIP Birds can get their Flight Pass sooner.
When the birds start singing sea shanties...Huey will yell Surfs Up!
The whole floor show will fly under BOM's radar.

farquarson's picture
farquarson's picture
farquarson Friday, 5 Mar 2021 at 10:24pm

Hope you get some rain soon greenjam , sometimes the wet season can last into June. I should have mentioned in my comment that we had a pretty dry spring , seems to be a trend the last few years, only had 12 mm of rain in November , my dam was nearly empty, one of the driest November's (usually a few thunderstorms), followed by one of the wettest December's , kinda like someone flicked a weather switch. I think it rains heaps down here because of a few factors , byron being the most easterly point & all the heavily forested mountain ranges surrounding the caldera seem to pull the rain clouds in . There are various micro climates as well some being wetter than others. The valley I live in runs from the south west to the north east, when we get thunderstorms they follow that path through the tweed valley coming from Kyogle direction moving over my place then heading up to Uki & Murwillumbah , dumping rain the whole way. Then there are other valleys running from north east to south east which are drier. Its all interesting to observe. If your interested in rain totals & temp records check out the bom website , scroll down & click climate data online & type in the location you want to check , Nimbin post office has rain records going back to 1900. Cheers

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 1:06pm

#1 swellnet Craig's exclusive La Nina anomaly...(Stormbirdsong 3)
Comes complete with Happy Rainbow Ending.

The air pressure continues to lower and by the 1st weekend in March the Egrets were off the Radar.
5/6th March- tbb sees yet more birds vanish into seemingly clear Blue Skies in broad daylight.
Each time the birds are south / east of high sun...but this next occasion they were north of high sun.
7th March records the least surprising largest vanishing act of all.
tbb as before...watched & waited for a flock of 30 egrets to disappear...even knew it was gonna happen.
Part 2 reveals the Egret's Cloaking ability...(Includes Herons etc )...Here's how!
*Powder Down protects large white Water Birds & Parrots in order to fly in wet conditions.
*These larger white bird's wings are also very thin (Translucent)
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/great-egret-flying-buhair-lake-bahrain-b...
* With sunlight shining on translucent wings they absorb the colour of their surroundings
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/87/2b/14/872b1465a3d942e99cd16df6b39d25bb...
https://www.euronatur.org/fileadmin/images/fotowettbewerb/2014/01_BenceM...
https://www.flickr.com/photos/bocavermelha/387901255
* Their Beaks,legs & frames are all water resistant...attracting light but repelling water.
* Their giant leading edge wings are razor sharp & also glow as they fend off wet air.
https://m.psecn.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000x3BZaF_vUw4/s/550/I0000x3B...
* They tuck their heads under their wings in flight
https://birdsqueensland.org.au/galleries/White_Egrets_IKandJWB.pdf
*They streamline their legs to their tail feathers as one.
*They mostly fly over water bodies (Creeks, canals, Lakes) Sun then reflects up under their wings
* The birds are also known to vanish from sight in lake settings by thin structure & water resistance.
https://fullserviceaquatics.com/the-great-blue-heron-and-your-pond/
* The birds shiny coat masks their reflection...almost blending in with the water surface
http://www.deeestuary.co.uk/images/mixedheronsjulierogerscqnov2016.jpg
https://2.img-dpreview.com/files/p/TS560x560~forums/56745832/e10db6989a3...
Note how their water resistant beak & legs reflection tricks the water & would also in moist air.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Little_Egret_(Egretta_garzetta)-_Adult_breeding_%26_Great_Egret_(Casmerodius_albus)_hunting_in_Kolkata_W_IMG_4402.jpg
https://goldengateaudubon.org/white-ibis-snowy-egret/
*As the sun shines thru the egret then reflects up off the Blue Haze the shimmery glow hides the bird.
https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57d063cbff7c50fb0f359d6c/1...
https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/tantyou-picture-id173444753?k=6&m=1...

Military Drones adopt & salute "Heron" (Egret) Stealth-like (Off Radar) attributes.
It's likely that Military / Pilots were first to note Flocks of Egrets vanishing from radar.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RRVcEybd2AE/U2CaYir9MeI/AAAAAAAAIRA/Nv0RzxefTK...

This large flock were moving out high & far to the N/W in week before 1/100 floods
2nd week of March the Crows struggled some kinda short higher flight & kept up short flights since.
3rd week the remaining Egrets were now also flying low as big wet set in.
1/100 Flood no birds were flying high at all."All were grounded!"

Post 1/100 & Pre Easter floods Egrets were again fleeing south/east to the n/w but kept the low height.
It seems the back to back floods kept egrets/ eagles low & scarce but crows bossed the highest trees
Mother birds were Ok to test flight some baby birds but only ever once 'round the block.
All birds knew 2nd Easter Floods were coming & none dared get wet in Low pressure 'fine' weather.
Just recapping that all birds were still struggling to fly even after the 1st Big Flood.

Post SEQ Easter Floods (5 days) the crows, magpies & then Eagles could finally soar to new heights.
Interestingly the Egrets are still hanging low.
This process is taking some time ...as the small birds are overweight, so still look awkward in flight.
From Mid December Floods to March / April floods the birds were grounded like never before.
Happy to report all birds have returned to the skies...some little plump ones struggle but are keen.
Give them another week, some are again swooping & dive bombing, also using height much better.

With no 2020/21 inshore Cyclones the long running Low smothered & (Choked) the Goldie.
The 4 month Low that permeated Gold Coast from at least Dec to April has finally cleared.
This should afford more S > N Coastal weather to dominate thru our region...
Clouds now actually move on...but still not as fast as they should...birds have voted yes! For Now!
Our first run of 4 clear days is just surreal...almost too good to be true.
Fantastic to see birds flying about...crew send best wishes to Flood affected.

Just how fantastic is that tbb...you never really touched on that...Ok then! A more insightful reflection!
Judgement Day!
8th Thursday arvo Double Rainbow back lit a family of Eagles...crew can picture that majesty.
A pair of evil twin hungry Cumulonimbus Clouds chomped down hard & fast on the Rainbow Twins.
The brightest Blue Sky took revenge & wiped out the last of the naughty Clouds...
The Sun shone on the birds and the Sky comes alive! (Huey fucks up with a Happy Ending!)

Does this mean that the crew get waves...Dunno!
Birds are trying more than ever to flap up a few sets.

Do know that Weather God Craig is doing his best to stir up a storm...
[ Goodbye La Nina...for now ]
Can hear the rumble as swellnet weather God hurls a Fujiwhara at the crew...(Sure sounds Ominous!)
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2021/04/01/goodbye-la-ni...

GreenJam's picture
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GreenJam Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 2:03pm

Hey farquarson - a belated thanks for your reply and suggestion to check the BOM records. A good score - found that someone very nearby my place has been keeping records since 1933. And some interesting observations in that data. I'm no stats man, so its a visual scan to observe trends - I'd been thinking there'd be a decline in totals since then (you know, climate change and all), but it doesnt appear that way, or anything of significance anyway. There are numerous occasions of well above average/heavy rain years (and normally 2 or 3 in a row) always immediately followed by a very low year (like 500-700mm, always well less than 1000mm) or two, then more average years for a number of years, then repeat the above. Wettest in that time was nearly 2,500mm, which didnt surpirse me as that was '99 and I was on the coast and that was a big wet year, just relentless I recall (working with a landscaping crew, so plenty of wet days to hit the waves instead).

overall, this year I'd say La Nina missed this region (Mary Valley). Yeah, we ended up getting some ok rain, much needed, but certainly no significant events. Just still average or even perhaps still a little below average here. E.g. that last 'event', we only had around 120mm over the 5 days or so - was quite unusual too I thought - constant mist/drizzle with occasional heavier showers in between. So I guess we'll see if anything more comes before the typical drier winter period.

also, sounds like you live in a great spot farquarson - I'm reasonably familiar with that area and really like it. If I didnt live up here, I'd be down there somewhere. Hope you got good falls but nothing damaging.

cheers