Tahiti Pro Teahupoo Forecast Update
Following the oversized action at the Tahiti Pro trials, the first day of the Tahiti Pro waiting period dawned with a small, listless mix of swells. It was called a lay day, and tomorrow will be the same.
The coming few days will provide a bit more size, but the quality and direction of the swell won't be crash hot. The organisers will at least be able to cross off the early rounds if they wish.
An inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell is expected to build through Friday afternoon (local time, Saturday in Australia) and peak on Saturday, but size wise we're only looking at sets to 3-4ft later Friday, easing from a similar size on Saturday.
Cross-shore SE winds will create average conditions as the swell kicks Friday. The wind will be a little better in Saturday as it edges to the E/SE.
A small mid-latitude low that's currently formed (and stalled) south of Tahiti will produce a weaker S'ly swell for Sunday, though again we're only looking at sets around 4ft. Conditions, however, will be great with E/NE trades and they'll remain that through Monday as the swell drops from a small 2-3ft.
Next Tuesday and Wednesday is when the first significant swell of the waiting period hits.
As touched on in the early forecast, a strong node of the Long Wave Trough will move across New Zealand and stall there, which isn't ideal. This puts New Zealand right in the way of incoming swells, effectively cutting them in half.
We are expecting to see a strong front pushing over the top of New Zealand and then forming back into a low in Tahiti's swell window (see image above), aiming a fetch of gale-force S/SW-SW winds towards the islands.
A strong S/SW groundswell should be seen, building to the 6ft range through Tuesday afternoon with occasional 8ft bombs. The swell will ease from 5-6ft on Wednesday morning.
Surface conditions are looking great with persistent E-E/NE trades swinging more N/NE as the swell fades further Thursday form the 4ft range. There'll also likely be some very inconsistent W'ly swell in the mix from later Monday through Tuesday from the strong frontal activity in the Tasman Sea, but it'll slip under the primary swell.
Moving into the back half of the waiting period and there's no further significant swells due, with mid-period energy padding out the window. There is, however, a large swell forecast to hit just after the waiting period though it's a long way out and certainty is low.
We'll keep an eye on developments and provide any changes to this in the comments below.