Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast long range forecast
This year’s Aussie leg of the Qualifying Series had five contests, the last of which - the Sydney Pro - finished on the weekend. For five straight days the Sydney Pro was held in weak waist high waves, much like every other contest of the leg - save for two days of the Great Lakes Pro which found a back up venue during Cyclone Oma.
It’s not just a case of bad timing, the whole East Coast has endured a lean summer with only Cyclone Oma and the odd trade swell breaking the pattern. Now, of course, autumn has begun and the Quiksilver Pro is nigh. As I type, the marquee at Rainbow Bay is being set up and the surf is barely a foot high out the front.
Fortunately for everyone - competitors, fans, and even just Joe Average living on the East Coast - a more typical autumn pattern is beginning to establish itself. And even though it’s one week till the Quiksilver Pro begins the longer term signs are promising.
Autumn on the East Coast is characterised by storm activity in the Coral Sea, Tasman Sea, and Southern Ocean, resulting in swells approaching from a range of directions. This will be the case in the coming week as a long period south swell will brush the Gold Coast tomorrow, followed by the first hint of an east swell, then a short range south swell is due next Sunday, and after that the east swell will slowly ramp up in size and period.
Each swell will fluctuate around three-to-four foot at Snapper - the Sunday south swell potentially a bit larger - with the quality also fluctuating due to swell direction and wind. Though they fall outside the waiting period, each swell will play its part. As Rabbit explained last week, south swells are required to fill the hole at Snapper, while the east swell will provide a showcase for the state of the bank and the form of the surfers.
In fact the aforementioned east swell is actually the early stage of a slowly evolving system that will provide swell through the opening days of the Quiksilver Pro.
A tropical depression is currently forming near Fiji and will evolve into a tropical low as it tracks slowly south-east - see MSLP chart below. As it pushes up against a large high east of New Zealand, we’ll see a long fetch of easterly winds aimed towards the Gold Coast. This is a bread and butter system for the Gold Coast, though we haven’t seen many of them this season.
Synoptic chart for Wednesday 3rd April showing the low south-east of Fiji squeezing the high pressure system
At this stage it appears the swell will hit begin hitting its stride on Tuesday - the day before the contest begins - and by sundown be around 3-4 feet from the E/SE. For the following five days - Wednesday to Sunday - the swell will shift around the 3-to-4 foot mark with occasional larger spikes. However, unlike the swells due this week, the period will be up around the 10 second mark making for defined lines of swell. It’s a great period and direction for Snapper - if the sand is in order.
The wind may be slightly problematic with a persistent south to E/SE flow. It’ll be light southerly in the mornings, but the organisers can expect some bump, especially behind the rock, by midday as the winds swing towards the E/SE. As is always the case with winds from this direction, surface conditions will improve down the bank. The swell will not get big enough for Kirra.
The organisers will almost certainly run from Wednesday, the first day of the waiting period, and they’ll be looking to capitalise on the east swell as the Gold Coast’s swell windows close towards the second half of the period. The high pressure system creating the east swell blocks south swells from moving north through the Tasman and slack isobars fill the Coral Sea.
We'll keep an eye on developments in the comments below.
Comments
Is it spelt wozzle or wozzel? Ive gotta get the important stuff straightened out before the season begins.
ha ha - can you explain the origins of the term wozzle or wozzel please ?
Say WSL quickly. Or phonetically. You know what I mean.
And just as my name is spelt Nettle so then is the wozzle.
Maybe Worzel ?
After the ISP / ASP / WSL changes its like the reanimated scarecrow who retains the same body but with interchangeable heads.
The WorSeL? The WorSteL? Worzel Gummidge was a great show. "I'll be bum-SWizzLed!"
My favourite is the TURniPEL head.
The WeaSeL? "In Greek culture, a weasel near one's house is a sign of bad luck, even evil..."
That bank has a way to go before it gets anywhere near good. Saw it this morning and it's just a hole.
Don't worry!
Swell or no swell, bank or no bank, they are pros on thrusters and they will go off.
Can't wait.
hi stu
>>The high pressure system creating the east swell blocks south swells from moving north through the Tasman
is that the high east of nz? is it forecast to move west? if not, it looks too far east to block southern entry into the tasman. that’s a question btw - can you give me the dummies version on how that one blocks the tasman? or do you mean the high that’s in the tasman? thanks
I should've been more thorough: the reason the east swell endures is because another high succeeds the original, parking itself in the Tasman Sea and directing the (already established) wind field towards the mainland.
In fact, the latest model run has another tropical depression, this time south of New Caledonia, impressing itself on the high, which, if it happens, could increase wave height by a foot or two at either end.
Not overly confident on that last scenario just yet.
thanks stu
Would you agree that latest model run looks like a finish at Kirra?
fingers crossed!
In saying that I've been on the long range forecast disappointment train with many of you, so the grain of salt is firmly in place. But it would be awesome to see it happen again.
There's been a disturbance playing out towards the end of the model runs for a while - a grain of sand around which the pearl will grow. It's begun moving forward which increases confidence.
Kirra? Can't call that just yet.
it's looking better with each model run but still a fair amount of discrepancy between models.
you'd have to think purely by the weight of averages that sooner or later we'd get an upgrade instead of a downgrade.
"For the following five days - Wednesday to Sunday - the swell will shift around the 3-to-4 foot mark with occasional larger spikes."
Don't hold your breath for those "larger spikes". I'll go 3 foot sets with the odd 4 footer.
Is there any way we can just not give a fuck? The whole pro circus influx in the area is a PITA.
And, to top it off, this new swell is already moving sand around here. Looks to be set on fucking up all the great banks we've had since Oma.
I know it's coincidental, but, it feels like Huey is helping the pro circus at the detriment of us 'recreational' surfers.
Is there is a way to not give a fuck you know....
By not giving a fuck..... Simple.... lol
Stu this period and size seems small and slow. 10 second is weak I would have thought, 3-4 foot is not really stretching anyone, and don't we always want defined swells? Is it just that it has been a poor summer that this is looked upon as good surf or is there more it in than pure numbers? With this outlook it will be all above the lip and compared to what happens down south and west seems a bit limp.
If the bank is in order then 3-4 foot waves on a 10 second period are primo numbers for Snapper.
It's QLD, not Vic or WA, so 10 seconds is good.
moving from tassie to GC, that was a MAJOR mindset readjustment. So rare to get any period up here at all, even Oma was short period. Cf tas, where you don't even go for a look with a period less than 14s
Yeah they were my thoughts as 10 seconds is like Port Phillip Bay and 16 is starting to get serious. That said we had a really clean perfect 12 second swell over summer with great banks and surf all day however you could feel it lacked a bit of push.
bathymetry number one consideration, swell direction number 2.
period hardly ever significant.
Amplification = bathymetry? Why is period not significant when the Hawaiians froth at higher period and it is obvious when you are surfing if it is a gruntier swell or a weak short period? I always thought longer period more oomph and cleaner (coming from a greater distance gets time to sort it self out and has real push).
Shallow sandbanks often get overwhelmed by the greater energy of long period swells.
Thanks Blowin, makes sense however if it is a long period and say a 3-4 foot swell best of both worlds or still overwhelming? Had a 20 second 2 foot swell in Bali and it was awesome for its size.
east coast Australia is a lee shore.
inshore bathymetry creates the wave amenity, for good or ill.
Long period swells in this part of the world are often highly refracted S swells that can barely break. Wrong direction, not aimed up squarely at the coastline like WA, Indo, Pacific west coasts etc etc
Remember the Fiji swell from last year? The one Ramon Navarro got the bomb on>?
18-20 second period swell.
I rockfished exposed ledges that entire swell and the surf never got over 3ft here.
Swell periods were massive, energy practically non-existent.
Other famous Cloudbreak swells the surf has been 8ft here, with slightly more favourable swell direction. Take home: long period swells do weird things when refracting into lee shores.
On rare occasions when we do get straight on swells with medium/long period few spots will handle. Ones that do will be memorable though.
All in all though, a 9-11 second souped up Tradewind swell with good banks will provide better surf than just about anything, pound for pound.
Thanks FR so wrong angle of the dangle. Has to bend around too much or gets bent all over the place prior to it landing and thus losing is mojo. Yes we get lots of angles down here and they are all minor variations of west - south west.
Frictional drag of long period swells on the continental slope/shelf can really suck the life out of some of these swells, while others show up with significant energy intact.
Its a real mind fuck.
OK makes sense, comes from a long way losing power dragging its tail all the way as well as bending versus the southern ocean 2.5k deep and no loss until it hits Bass Strait. Yes very complicated compared to the southern latitudes where wind (1) and size (2) are the keys. Thanks for the information appreciate it as I could never work out what was going on along the east coast. I have been at spots and seen great south swells march past certain areas scratching my head and other times chasing the swell up or down the coast daily.
@ freeride ,
Nailed it , don't forget shorter period swells create double ups and hollower waves also.
Thanks fr76! Great explanation. Half the fun in southern tas is knowing how the long period swell will wrap around underwater obstacles into bays to make novelty waves work. It’s all period - how deep the wave extends will impact on how it bends around or goes straight over an underwater obstacle/island/how far up a bay it will go. Whereas up here, there isn’t much under water, and yes longer period swell crushes the sand. The waves are more hollow, so are heavy and powerful but have less oomph coming off the bottom and don’t get that same freight train locomotion feeling you get off an 18s swell wrapped into a little bay... even at shoulder high and almondy. It’s not better or worse, just different!
Thanks Seen, interesting take on the Hobart points which look a stack of fun. The oomph and the speed at which the swell approaches you is the thing I notice in Victoria. Those long period swells if you have a reef or a super bank that will hold them are upon you really fast and you have to paddle harder for the take off to get into them (which is heaps faster) and they have a lot of thickness to the wave itself. The shorter ones are more user friendly and still a good shape and don't have the same wall of whitewater once they have broken - much easier to duck dive. I love those long period ones for the power and as you say, push down the line.
Wonder if heat review is in the forecast....or if I have to pay for that...wasn't up for the pipe pro....
Looks like a nice consistent forecast. Haven't really watched a surf comp in a while so should be interesting.
Anyone suggest a favorite ?
depends on the bank.
2007 conditions behind the rock ?
Jack Freestone.
Soli Bailey
JW
2 ft onshore crap bank?
Medina will eat them alive.
Toledo has the skills and the energy. Italo has the skills and the confidence.
Medina won’t even notice them going under his wheels as he steams towards another world title.
yeah - it's hard to see anyone stopping him. jjf has the talent but probably not the game or the mongrel
You forgot to mention Julian, he won snapper last year and had a good back half of the year.
It will make me happy if it is flat.
Why?
Models are all over the shop.
Michael Rodrigues is 70-1, you can thank me later
Quarters.
Replace M-Rod with Italo based on venue shift. Pair him with Lakey for 45-1
Who do you bet with Shoredump ?
Bet365. I’ll sometimes do a crazy multi on the 3 surfer rounds. $1 bet on all 12 rounds returns 20-60,000 and being a surfer who understands the nuances of different breaks, I’ve come painfully close a few times. Makes it interesting. Even a 6 leg bet gives a solid pay out, but it ramps up quickly from there with every leg added.
How's the bank looking four days out?
Roxy switch: Mystery WSL Pro @ Burleigh this arvo both rad & fast.
Vert snaps off paddlerz heads with pinpoint precision as if almost a game.
Speeding thru red/yellow pit lane crew even faster out rear chequered flag all smiles.
Gentlebasherz don't tell but only other boardrider to enter flags was an 8 y/old girl.
Selfish act blew tbb support for Roxy. Bit of a shame as surfer is a red hot shoe-in.
Light winds Friday and raging northerly today wouldn’t have helped the bank at all.
They will be sweating that the next few days of southerlies does the trick. (PS no idea what it’s like currently)
Saw it yesterday.
The reason it is named Snapper Rocks is that after storms it is a deep hole that rock fisherman caught snapper in.
You could have fished for snapper there yesterday.
There is wide sand at Rainbow........bit and pieces down the rainbow/greeny end.
They will be sweating this upcoming SE surge has enough energy to get some sand moving.
the next 2 high pressure systems do look a bit more seasonally robust than what has come before.
The next predicted dip/ low north of NZ (around the 5th onwards) seems to have better potential than this current one Stu has highlighted.
When both gfs and AccG are showing signs albeit with subtle differences, you'd have to say something "above average" is on the brew.
how do the winds look?
Can't see any chance of the bank coming good now. They would've been able to make something out of the forecast with anything resembling normal snapper banks. You would think dbah would be pretty fun for the week ahead. Given the windows of good conditions are likely only going to be a.m. and big high tides first thing in the morning, it seems their only option.
I have always thought Burleigh and Currumbin should be in the mix. The Stubbies was soooooo fun to watch from the Burleigh Ampitheatre
Burleigh in the 70 and 80 vs now are two different waves.
never used to be as straight as it is now.
ah the sand ........it's a fickle moving thing . the should have never spat the tal creek out on the main beach..............
Heard they are thinking of running it at Dbar...anyone confirm this?
I thought that was no go because Dbah is considered to be in NSW and Qld government wouldn’t allow it?