Forecast: Margaret River Pro

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

The Aussie leg of the CT has been spluttering along but it's not for a lack of good surf. Kirra pumped for one day, Bells too, and now we cast our eyes west and wonder what the Margaret River Pro has in store. Will the powerful south-west swells arrive on time? Will John John - or any of the pros - replicate the champ's sublime performance at Main Break last year?

It's been a prolonged summer in the west with mild to hot temperatures persisting well into autumn along with fun swells for the Margaret River region. The swell from TC Marcus was a great one day wonder, but we're now seeing a shift in weather patterns to something more typical of the season.

The Margaret River Pro waiting period kicks off tomorrow, but we're not likely to see any competition run until the weekend owing to persistent onshore winds across the South West of the state.

Later in the week large surf will develop across the region, generated by a vigorous low that's currently located near Heard Island (half way between South Africa and Australia).

It's worth breaking down the specifics of this storm as there are two distinct phases: on Friday there'll be relatively weaker groundswell energy with more south in it, while on Saturday less consistent but stronger long-period energy is due to make landfall.

Two days ago (on Sunday the 8th), a deep and powerful low formed south-east of South Africa, generating a fetch of severe-gale (40-50kt) west-southwest winds from the far reaches of Margaret River's swell window. This is the source of Saturday's inconsistent and more westerly groundswell.

This low has since been tracking south-east and over the coming days will quickly swing back up towards Western Australia while producing a fetch of weaker south-west gales. Friday's (relatively) weaker and more SW swell is the product of this secondary intensification.

On Friday, we should see sets building to 8ft across exposed breaks under gusty, onshore south-southwest winds. We may see winds tend S/SE late, favouring North Point but this swell is borderline both in size and direction.

On Saturday, the less consistent long-period groundswell energy is expected to come in at 10ft (with the odd bigger cleanup likely) at exposed spots, easing slowly through the day and with a more favourable south-southeast wind blowing through the morning. This swell will be slightly better aligned for North Point, however the WSL will have to factor in inconsistency and the easing trend. They'll be watching this day very closely. 

Consider that last year's decamp to North Point was only salvaged by one ride, Seabass' 10-pointer. That may give them the confidence to roll the dice again, especially considering that, should the gamble fail, there are a number of good Main Break days to follow.

Sunday should see easing surf from 6ft to occasional 8ft range at Main Break with a morning south-east wind ahead of afternoon sea breezes. However, it'll be much cleaner Monday with an easterly offshore but smaller surf back to 4-5ft.

Tuesday will be clean again as winds swing more east-northeast and there's the possibility of a reinforcing south-southwest groundswell to 4-5ft.

The second half of the waiting period will provide plenty more potential for good surf as a series of strong storms develop in the middle of the southern Indian Ocean producing large W/SW groundswell energy late next week as a strong high sitting off the West Oz coast provides favourable offshore winds.

Keep an eye on the comments section below for running updates on this dynamic forecast period.

16 Day Margaret River Forecast Graph
16 Day Margaret River WAMs

Comments

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 11:37am

Main break shame break,North point never point,give me a Box anyday.

Legrope's picture
Legrope's picture
Legrope commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 1:22pm

I suppose you'd also say Bells smells and Snapper is crapper? Have you ever surfed in the west? The Box and Northies would flip you like an omlette and Main break would drown you. Just sayin.

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 3:45pm

Sorry mate but yes I have surfed many waves like main break and the box! I was surfing tmile and massacres ,Ep at the age of 16 and spent a decade chasing east coast swells at some of the better NSW slabs reddys and verg many many times on 10ft plus day And many secret slabs down south I will not say! But boo-who it doesn't make me a hero or someone better I have just grown up around bigger waves! Wow..But actually love surfing playful beachys more even though I have the skills for these waves?
We have just seen a sandy point with tight pocket turns and some OK barrels at Kirra! Bells is a turn fest!
So after 100 heats of turns and considering the west holds countless slabs..It would be good to see the Pros tested again in some scary waves rather than turns like Bell's at Margs again.
Get it?

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 4:03pm

Lanky! You see that giant left Kai otten always has in his clips that makes Margs look like a toy? There is many waves on the south NSW coast that are going to drown or proper bounce you.
And the Port Campbell area will drown you before margs gets its chance.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 9:23am

W41= Doomsayer.

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 10:20am

Lol sorry lanky I ment to say the sheep! But yes the Doomsayer because I like watching pros surf the Box over Margs ..You really are a bunch of over 50s surfers suffering a comments midlife crisis! Projecting your missed Dreams of waves you can't surf but think can after watching them online until you reach that age that you believe gives you the right to say you are knowledgeable about them here at swellnet aren't we. Ah DoomsSayer! At least I have surfed spots like this and don't just watch comment and wish.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 5:56pm

You're not that spud that used to sign on as Woof Woof are ya?

Seriously......Are you OK???

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 8:41am

No?

Legrope's picture
Legrope's picture
Legrope commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 2:52am

So you haven't surfed in the west? Had a 6 foot (double overhead) set wave at Northies, nope. Very much a slab/point and very intimidating. I've surfed both coasts and a double overhead day on the east coast has the power of an over head high day in the south west. Ask anyone who has surfed both. 10 foot at Margies is 4x overhead and theres not many east coast waves that can match it's brute force. Typically 16-18 second swell period so has much more bulk. That's why it always gets compared to Hawaiian power waves. Come on over and get a set wave. Could be the either the beating or the wave of your life ;) Maybe the comp should be held at Cyclops so you don't get bored? I bet you'll be watching.

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 8:40am

Nope would love it to be at 10ft death pits - North point.But its very rare and unlikely.Box would be sick and that's what I would like to see.. Rather than Margs! Your very aggressive and protective over the obvious! I know North point is nuts and I know Margs at 10-15ft is not fun anymore!
I would just rather see it at the BOX! Get over it.

Legrope's picture
Legrope's picture
Legrope commented Thursday, 12 Apr 2018 at 1:53pm

Mate, if you think that is aggressive, get some tissues. My point is that if you haven't surfed there, show a bit of respect with your wording of the breaks for the large community who base their lives around these waves.
If you have surfed here, you wouldn't be making the comments as your opinion would be very different. Did you ever see Slater's 10 at main break? Enjoy the comp wherever they have it. Every spot can give you a 10.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 5:31pm

The box is good for a few heats or a round to mix it up, but it get's boring pretty quick with how short the waves are, IMHO it comes down to much to luck of who gets the best waves.

Yeah sure all comps have that best wave factor but it's magnified in those kind of waves especially with the short length.

North point is obviously an epic wave and can offer sections for turns, but it seems way to fickle and inconsistent for a fair comp, again comes down way to much to who lucks into having priority when that magic bomb comes through.

Main break, IMHO is actually not too bad for a comp fairly consistent, big drops, barrels, sections for big carves and power turns, with an end section to hit...shallow inside reef gives it a little extra edge to watch.

I normally whinge about Margs because i think three comps in Oz is too much, but when it's actually on, id rather watch it than Bells.

Ignore button is ON for Crypto knight

(Really no point entering into any discussion with such a sad bitter abusive old man, so go ahead bait and abuse me all you like)

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 3:04pm

Looks like main break then I guess? Plenty of swell for the Aust leg this year. Plenty of chances for the surfers.
Hope the wild west comes through.

abc-od's picture
abc-od's picture
abc-od commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 3:19pm

Is anyone else feeling like the Aust leg has been strangely dull?? Good waves yeah, and Mick's retirement, but no build up or tension, no narratives congealing as a journo might put it. Just random happenings.

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 8:52am

That's why a slab at this point in the tour would be good. Just to add a bit of that "oh no" no way" factor.
The tour needs some spice right now and by comp three I think they should be testing the guys in some below sea level stuff! So the guys who can slice and have smashed heats at snapper and bells doing new school and the "classic pro turn " they all have before they get on tour now. Can show us there tube and take off skills at waves like the BOX! And there is plenty if waves in the west that are not as fickle as box that they could run it at.

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 6:02pm

Thank God 4 Main Break. Hanging around waiting 4 the Box or North Point to break, No Thanks. The WSL should be commended for their preparedness to Surf heats in the Best Waves. Switching btw Bells and Winki to maximise optimum conditions was outstanding. Backing the forecast, they were walking away from contestable waves at 10.00 am because lighter winds were forecast. They were right. So this event was run in the Best waves Bells could produce during the Waiting Period. Well Done.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 6:44pm

I agree now looking back at the Bells comp i think they did a real good job at picking the best windows for waves and even juggling mens and womens and from Bells to Winki etc

Ignore button is ON for Crypto knight

(Really no point entering into any discussion with such a sad bitter abusive old man, so go ahead bait and abuse me all you like)

W41's picture
W41's picture
W41 commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 4:07pm

Hmm if you had of know how much of this event was moved and postponed due to people celebrating #cheersmick you might say other wise.
Other wise DR well done for not being negative.

SurferSam's picture
SurferSam's picture
SurferSam commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 6:43pm

Way more west in this years swell - last years swell was almost direct south and never understood why they were hyping the swell so much. I reckon north point will be better than last year but also predict Wsl will be to scared to make the call to shift there as they were basically skunked last year

Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 9:01pm

With an open mind I reckon the best option for the comp with this forecast is Margs LEFT. But it will no doubt be strangely overlooked once again this year.

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley commented Tuesday, 10 Apr 2018 at 10:42pm

The problem with the left is there is no end section to smack.

OllieB's picture
OllieB's picture
OllieB commented Wednesday, 11 Apr 2018 at 2:28pm

I vote Box.

I can watch good surfers in good waves any time.

I'd rather watch the worlds best surfers in the craziest waves!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 12 Apr 2018 at 10:40am

Whaddya reckon Craig? Any chance of N Point Fri or Sat?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 12 Apr 2018 at 10:50am

I'm thinking tomorrow no, with the building swell through the day and poor winds through the morning, and Saturday morning, there'll be waves, but it will be easing and for a possible half day at North Point, I'm thinking no again.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Thursday, 12 Apr 2018 at 2:13pm

W.A is the only state I haven't surfed :(
A question about the margs left.... All the footage I have seen has always been sw - ssw swells.... Big yes.... But fat and boring af.... Is it a better wall with a true wsw swell hitting the reef more front on? Or does local bathymetry play a part?

Sheepdog

fraser-gordon's picture
fraser-gordon's picture
fraser-gordon commented Saturday, 14 Apr 2018 at 9:15am

Sometimes the current from the river will flow through the line up creating pipe like conditions rare though.

SurferSam's picture
SurferSam's picture
SurferSam commented Thursday, 12 Apr 2018 at 11:04pm

Yes margs left better with more west in the swell and longer interval. Reckon they may well run at north point tomorrow it's actually really fun in a south wind ramps galore

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Saturday, 14 Apr 2018 at 8:32am

Seemed like North Point had plenty enough size, wonder if they will go again today.
Anyone on the ground there?

eddiewouldgo's picture
eddiewouldgo's picture
eddiewouldgo commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 5:27am

Where can i find footage of the north point contest please?

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 6:50am

wsl website -heat anniliser

simba

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 7:21am

haha worth a watch,...snaketails instagram......mikey and jesse

simba

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 7:43am

Just got deleted.. bugger.
Mikey copping a lot of hate on his Instagram from Brazil, jeepers they fire up hey!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 8:44am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlwWvg2ERYg

I'm not on either side but from the footage of the surf and the incident, it's Jesse that looks like a little punce.

sunlover199's picture
sunlover199's picture
sunlover199 commented Monday, 16 Apr 2018 at 4:36pm

another Brazilian drop in, what is he (Jesse) doing paddling on the shoulder like an egg
go Mikey you are rippin'

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 7:49am

yeh well it showed jessie a bit unhappy about mikey getting a bit greedy in the surf,so it came to push in the car park...hope they get a heat together.

simba

eddiewouldgo's picture
eddiewouldgo's picture
eddiewouldgo commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 10:10am

The comments were severe...at least 1600 a few hrs ago! Did it get deleted lol ? Many threats to snake just for posting it...

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 10:16am

threats from who?brazos?

simba

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 15 Apr 2018 at 10:25am

Shit yes....Mikey may still have them up on his insta

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 16 Apr 2018 at 4:01pm

Looks like the comp is going to end in average conditions.

There's only a weak W/SW swell due Wednesday, easing Thursday with light morning winds. The weekend's swell is great, but.... winds will spoil the party.

More here: Average week, large powerful swell building for the weekend but onshore