Jeffreys Bay 2016 Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

The Jeffreys Bay Open is only a week away and there's a lot of anticipation around this event after last year's incident involving Mick Fanning and some of the local wildlife.

The first day of the waiting period is next Wednesday so the pros will be reacquainting themselves with Supertubes as we speak. Fortunately for them there's a lot of swell on the cards, especially through Friday and Saturday allowing the pros to get a good warm up in. From Sunday, however, devil winds from the northern quadrant will create poor conditions and it's not until the first day of the waiting period (Wednesday 6th) that winds improve and settle down.

A new long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell is due to fill in on the first day of the waiting period, produced by a favourably positioned polar storm traversing the ice-shelf this weekend.

We're looking at surf in the 3-4ft range wrapping into Jeffreys Bay, easing back through Thursday with favourable offshore winds.

From here we're expecting a few lay days as the Southern Ocean storm track weakens through next week. A stronger storm developing south-east of South America mid-late next week should produce some new larger swell for the following weekend and early that week, but beyond this another blocking pattern looks to develop.

So the early outlook isn't epic for J'Bay - warm up days notwithstanding - but there are waves on the cards. Let's hope something more significant develops for the end of the event waiting period. Check back for running updates in the comments section below.

And now some classic J'Bay lines featuring Tanner Gudauskas, Taylor Knox, and Parker and Conner Coffin.

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 4 Jul 2016 at 1:36pm

So they'll run Wed and maybe Thurs morning before the devil wind? And then again on Sat, and maybe again Sun (again before the devil wind)?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 4 Jul 2016 at 1:46pm

Yeah looks like a good call for me.

Still no forecast on WSL site.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 5 Jul 2016 at 9:24am

Yeah saw that there was no forecast on Surfline yesterday. What's doing there? Keeping something up there sleeve?

They have a forecast up now and hinting at similar days to above to run the comp. Finals look uninspiring based on latest/current forecasts.

Fck, latest GFS runs have some solid swell for Sat arvo. Shame winds not gonna play ball!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 5 Jul 2016 at 9:38am

Just writing update now, yeah Saturday pumping but window is limited, onshore by Sunday!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 5 Jul 2016 at 10:04am

Hopefully we get some sort of good conditions. This is the comp that i can actually watch live due to work etc.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 5 Jul 2016 at 10:20am

Can they run overlapping heats in the earlier rounds so that they run the finals by Sat arvo, or at worst very very early Sunday morning before the onshore kicks in?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 5 Jul 2016 at 10:27am

Latest forecast update live here: Jeffreys Bay 2016 Updated Forecast