Margaret River Pro Forecast Update
Yesterday the Woz squeezed out one round of surf in building, wind-affected swell, but there'll be a bunch of lay days this week before the weather starts to clear into the weekend.
With the first half of the waiting period playing out to script, let's look towards the second half for signs of hope.
A strong progression of mid-latitude storms will continue to wreak havoc over the coming days, with weak, mid-period swells in the 5-6ft range under varying onshore winds.
Into the end of the week, a stronger and better aligned polar front will project a swell-generating fetch up towards the region, but it'll be quite south in direction.
Overall wind strengths aren't especially strong resulting in mid-period swell energy with some stronger groundswell due to arrive from midday onwards, with both easing through Saturday.
6-8 foot sets are due across Main Break on Friday but the wind will linger out of the SW, moderate in strength making for bumpy conditions. Whether or not they'll push the green button for a competition day looks to be a 50/50 call with better surf to come.
A high pressure system should slide in on the weekend, bringing better local winds: easterly each morning giving way to weak sea breezes, as Friday's mix of swells ease. Clean, easing 6 foot+ surf should see competition get back underway on Saturday, with smaller 4 foot+ waves on Sunday (possibly another lay day).
The final three days look to be blessed with a couple of new southwest groundswell pulses, though again the main issue is the local winds.
These swells will be generated by back to back lows moving through the Southern Ocean, north of the Heard Island region, with the first being strongest, though smallest and least favourably aligned, the second slightly weaker but broader in scope and much longer-lived.
The first southwest groundswell should arrive Sunday night and peak Monday morning with sets to 6 foot+ at Main Break, with the secondary swell arriving later Tuesday, peaking Wednesday morning in the 8 foot+ range.
At this stage, Monday looks clean with light offshore winds ahead of sea breezes, while a deepening low moving in across the region on Tuesday may bring less favourable strong S/SE winds - not ideal for Main Break, though surfable.
We should see winds swing back offshore (though possibly quite strong) on the final day of the waiting period, providing great waves to finish in.
We'll continue to keep an eye on things and update developments in the commentary below.