The Punters Club - Margaret River Pro 2015

lots-of-surfboards.jpgIn no way does Swellnet encourage anyone to gamble. However, if you like a flutter here's the punters guide to the Margaret River Pro.

The forecast

Following the first two events where organisers were faced with patchy forecasts, the WSL will be quick to capitalise on Margaret River’s excellent outlook for the first four days of the waiting period. 

It’s worth noting that extended periods of large surf with favourable winds isn’t very common for any surfing competition, and the WSL will certainly capitalise on their good fortune. Nothing affects the potential reach of surfing events more than stop/start, never-quite-sure surf conditions. The chances for the event going “on hold until 11am” are very slim, at least for the first few days.

The likely running order

Theoretically the WSL could complete the Men’s competition in three massive eight-hour-plus days, but with at least four sizeable days of waves on offer - and stints at The Box - organisers will probably look at spacing themselves accordingly.

And this fits in nicely with the cohesion of the event. Competitors will be able to work out their game plan around the likelihood of similar conditions for every round, and WSL media will be able maintain momentum from day to day, with familiar schedules and deadlines. Everyone’s a winner.

The Women’s competition has 27 Heats, so at 30 minutes each we’re looking at 13.5 all up: easily achievable in two solid days.

After the completion of the Men’s Round 1 yesterday and the start of Round 2 this morning, will contest organisers continue into Round 3 or send the Women’s Round 1 into the water? 

Current forecast expectations have a new swell building this afternoon to around 10ft, and in addition to a southerly sea breeze, there’ll be a lot of water moving around. They probably won't have enough time to complete Round 3 of the Men's this afternoon, but also similar problems with the running of Round 1 of the Women's.

The same goes for and Friday (easing trend all day), and especially Saturday (solid building trend). Fine-tuning the precise arrival times and phases of these many powerful groundswells will be crucial to sending the Men’s and Women’s contests into the right conditions. 

Otherwise, the long range outlook seems reasonable for next week: Plenty of time to finish the Women's off in 6-8ft Mainbreak Wednesday. Winds look to remain favourable as well with morning offshores and weak sea breezes.

Confidence Level: Running Days

Daily Forecast

  • Thursday 16th: 90% (Mainbreak, The Box; Mens) SW groundswell in the 8ft range, pushing back to 10ft into the afternoon. Moderate E/SE winds, ahead of fresh S/SW sea breezes.
  • Friday 17th: 90% (Mainbreak, The Box; Mens, possibly Womens) SW groundswell easing from the 10ft+ range. Light E/NE winds ahead of a shallow W/SW change around midday.
  • Saturday 18th: 90% (Mainbreak; Mens) Large and powerful S/SW reaching 10-12ft through the middle of the day, easing through the late afternoon. Moderate to fresh E/NE winds, swinging NE late morning and variable into the afternoon.
  • Sunday 19th: 70%  (Mainbreak or The Box; Mens) Easing S/SW groundswell from 6-8ft+. Fresh NE winds at dawn, tending N/NE through the morning and N'ly into the afternoon.
  • Monday 20th: 50% (Mainbreak; Womens) Easing S/SW swell from 3-4ft+. Light to moderate NE tending NW winds.

The rest of next week looks promising to finish the women's off in 3-4ft Mainbreak. The mornings are best for the wind with Wednesday and Thursday being the best of these days.

Tips from the team managers

In 2012 the World Tour was unequipped for massive Fiji and the WSL (then ASP) told the surfers they needed to be ready for anything from now on. No excuses. Some surfers are going to be more ready than others. We spoke to a few team managers about their surfer's confidence and preparation.

Matt Bemrose (Volcom Team Manager): Dusty is psyching for the event, he feels at home here. Loves the rawness of it and the open ocean swell.

Coco also loves this wave but almost drowned a couple of years ago when her legrope got suck under a rock and couldn't get up. She has some really good boards under her feet especially a 5'8 (her normal is a 5'5).

Look for some big results coming out of WA. 

Beau Emerton (Oakley Team Manager): Sebastian Zietz is used to the raw Hawaiian swells so with these big conditions predicted. I can see him causing some upsets if the contest is moved to The Box.

Expect big turns from Jordy Smith using his size to power through the early rounds and into finals.

Ryan Fletcher (Rip Curl Team Manager):

  • MICK: Box or Main Break, both will suit Mick's style. Longer channel bottom boards for main break and little pocket rockets for The box. Either way he'll be one to watch.
  • GABE: Definitely knows how to handle himself in the big stuff and with his tree trunk legs should be able to hold a rail at either break
  • OWEN: After surfing the last good swell on the South Coast NSW, the big O will be ready to go. He should be a stand out for the goofies at The Box.
  • WILKO: Will most likely prefer the walls of Main Break rather than The Box, but when push comes to shove he'll put himself in the spot.
  • TYLER: No secret Tyler thrives in the bigger waves. She had no choice as a grom growing up with her brothers, and if she is not in your Fantasy Surfer team, put her in.
  • NIKKI: Again, is not shy of a bigger wave given her home town of Phillip Island has some of the best bigger wave spots on the Victorian coastline. She might be a dark horse so be sure to watch.

The experts advice

Competence in big waves and big barrels seem to be the theme for this event. Here are a few tips from those who know.

Simon Anderson: Without studying anything except a few heats at Bells my outsiders would be Jeremy Flores who seems settled and his boards are working well. Josh Kerr if it goes to The Box.

Margarets is tricky to say the least and can be a battle of attrition, you will need to hang in there and tough out a few heats maybe with a bit of a slow start. Medina could come through in the cut and thrust of Main Break.

In the girls I cant go past the big 3 of Carissa, Steph, and Tyler. Steph showed glimpses of outstanding form at Bells and if she continues the anger and aggression in the big heats she can shade the others.

Of the outsiders there are a lot because the girls have depth and generally are not showing fear. Maybe Bianca if its lefts or Alyssa and Tatiana are showing good determination.

Toby Martin: Get on the power boys and tube riders. Josh Kerr always has an infinity with the place. At The Box the will shorten up.

Owen Wright is worth a sly 10 skins. Coming back into form and very suited to all conditions, maybe an each way.

Mick is too short to have some money on but you never go broke taking a profit .

Jordy Smith should be good value. He should have won more events than he has. Adriano rings his bell but worth getting on and very suitable to the Indian Ocean's blessings!

Hard to tip against Carissa Moore so I won’t. But Tyler would be worth an each way and Lakey Peterson as my smokey (again the power theme) 

Happy punting – punters!

Steve Harrison: John John to win the Mens. He won at Margaret River in 2012 and has had a quiet start to the year so will be looking for a big result. Blew minds winning the Quik Pro in France last year in big conditions.

My roughy is Dusty Payne. He won at Margaret River in 2013. Came from the clouds to qualify with massive performances in Hawaii last year.

Sally Fitzgibbons to win the Women’s. Stepped up last year at big Fiji, adjusted the best when having to ride bigger boards.

My women's roughy is Malia Manuel. Attacked Fiji last year when it was big.

Other stats to consider

  • Since 1985 there are been 27 finals appearances from West Oz locals and 8 titles.
  • 7 Winners of the Pipeline Masters are also title holders of the Western Australian event: Occy, Tom Carroll, Gary Elkerton, Jake Paterson, Kieran Perrow, Taj Burrow and Joel Parkinson. Not to mention strong performances from John John Florence (Pipe Pro Winner), Josh Kerr and Mick Fanning.
  • 6 runners up, in the men's and women's, have gone on to win a Margaret River Pro title within 3 years.
  • Taj has made 5 finals and won 1 title (in 17 years).
  • Josh Kerr has made the final in 2010, 2013 and 2014.
  • Courtney Conlogue has won twice in 2011 and 2012.
  • Carissa Moore has won the last two years (2013 and 2014)
  • Tyler Wright has come second in the last two years (2013 and 2014)

Good luck. If you're going to have a punt, do it responsibly. Remember this is only for fun.

Comments

ACB__'s picture
ACB__'s picture
ACB__ Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 11:35am

please make this a regular article.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 12:39pm

Isn't Trent Munro taking bets?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 2:10pm

Sure you don't mean Luke? There was an article in the GC Bulletin when the Quik Pro was on ("See Luke, the Tom Waterhouse of waves").

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 2:16pm

Yeah Luke Munro runs the odds on surfing for Topsport.

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 2:27pm

Parko,Slater, Doozooza
Uuuummm
Slater;)

rat-race's picture
rat-race's picture
rat-race Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 2:43pm

Now this is a better write up for the comp.
Check out this complete waste of webspace; http://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/110696/comp-countdown-brett-simpson

Seriously, after reading that dribble, I nearly threw up.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 2:43pm

JJF will get it done.

ashwitty's picture
ashwitty's picture
ashwitty Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 3:15pm

Micro and his last minute 1.77 threw out my 10 x $165 8 leg multi. I had Jay, Adriano, Kerzy, Nat, Ricardo, Taj, Kolohe and Melling. All Kolohe needed was that 2.28!!

 

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 3:36pm

Micro is on Steven Bradbury duties this year.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 3:49pm

Ummm. I am still yet to see clean margs lefts during a comp.... Ever.... Can they just hold some heats in big clean main break?????

Anyways, I've scored 20 to 1 on Freddy P.... So i put fittee on dat.....
Covered my arse with a tenna at 5 to 1 for Parko to make the semis.. ;)

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 3:52pm

Ohhh. And a mate that lives in Mumbai said one guy's gonna throw a heat, so I've got fittee on the guy he's up against....... Got 7 to 1..... ;p

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:09pm

The potential for corruption in surfing is huge.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:20pm

yeah lol.... That was my point.... A "mid tier" surfer could make more money throwing a few heats than he could in a career of prize money.... Bit of a worry really......

How was Bantings wipeout just then???!!!! He aint throwing the heat... That's for sure!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:37pm

The potential isn't huge at all.

Bets held on a whole day of surfing are only in the 5 figure range max, let along a single heat.

AFL/NRL/Cricket where hundreds of thousands of cash gets pushed through yes, but there's no incentive to throw a heat for a couple of G's.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:39pm

PS i just check my max bet (bottom right) for the winner of the Women's event and it's capped at $400...

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:45pm

Maaaate... I'll give you a number of an sp bookie in Mumbai.... You aint gonna make any money through betfair... ;)
Jokes aside, that swell we we've been chatting about - 21st/22nd/23rd.... Looking better and better... 8 foot plus craig?? Offshore winds??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:48pm

I disagree, and yeah swell's looking good, totally unrelated to TC but.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 5:01pm

Overseas syndicates pay big money, Craig.... It's a whole world that you ( or I) know nothing about... Even betting on reserve grade sports.....
And you know my opinion on the gfs.... Dominos..... I don't think the storm track would be so perfectly aligned if it wasn't for the first domino... But yeah, the second domino is the swell producer....

Get on to freddy P, craig...... lol (unless it's the box) - Taj a good outside bet at the box.... ;)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 5:08pm

I know a lot more than probably most on here actually.

And seriously they are not interlinked at all!

The only thing the ex-TC does is strengthen the pre-frontal fetch of NW gales aimed towards the Polar Shelf (south-southwest of WA Sunday morning). While some 4000kms to the west that polar frontal system is firing up under another strong node of the Long Wave Trough... http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 5:36pm

Bit crabby today mate? I could go into detail re' my opinion about the joalane position, and it's influence.... But hey... it's all good..... You said " nothing too significant for the rest of the forecast period"... I questioned that..... So we'll call it "1 all", captain cranky........ :P
I'll give you my theory if you are interested back in the forecast thread....

BTW, gambling's bad..... MMMkay..... ;)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 5:42pm

No I'm just over this talk of trying to link Joalane to any significant swell event for Western Australia.

Yes looking better for the back half due to that next node of the LWT moving in, I think Southey brought this up in that other thread as well.

Back to the punt :)

ACB__'s picture
ACB__'s picture
ACB__ Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:06pm

If the bloody comp had been at main break Dusty would've been a real shot. I had him paying $81 bucks...

Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow's picture
Speed Power Flow Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 4:44pm

Whats Micro paying v's Kelly in Round 3!

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 9:14pm

SwellBrokes ....... Really .....
did you guys get in a geezer to turn a little more coin encouraging a few more of the dodgier readers to lather up on the punt .. or are one of you 3 guys actually reformed gamblers . My moneys on Stu , we've all seen some of the rough odds gambles he's taken on swell chasing surf trips in the past . ;-)
Sheepy get over this TD talk will you , the southern storm track is way too westerly aligned ... the only time transitioning systems really ramp up southern storms is when there is far more frontal advancement and blocking highs going on ( ie a stalling pattern ) .
anyway punting ..... I'll just keep it simple like my roulette habits . so i'd like to take a goofy for $100 please .
And Owen for $10 on the nose .

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 16 Apr 2015 at 9:59pm

Nice work Swellnet.

Finally somebody gets it ! You fellas are covering the full spectrum of surfing from pros to punters , comp rundowns to board bizarre 's , design to weather and pretty much every facet of surfing mixed with some great tales and even some politics.

And you're doing it whilst remaining true to the heart of Aussie surfing. Must be because you're true surfers yourselves.

Great stuff. Thanks .

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Friday, 17 Apr 2015 at 7:21am

Thanks so much for bringing gambling onto swellnet, no doubt it will be followed by a bookie advertising. Gambling fucked up footy and now your trying to make it the norm in surfing, shame on you cunts! Surfing is pure, your into it for all the wrong reasons.

prawnhead's picture
prawnhead's picture
prawnhead Saturday, 18 Apr 2015 at 8:10am

36 surfers 1 winner
Roughly 2.7% chance of picking the winner in the most basic of probability
before you start on the multiple probability of surfing 7 times at least to win!
Good luck with that as your going to need a whole lot of bread to cover that shite sandwich!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 18 Apr 2015 at 12:39pm

Jay again!!