House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 7 Feb 2022 at 10:25pm
donweather wrote:

Yes sir.

"From May 2022 to May 2023, Morgan Stanley economists expect G4 central bank balance sheets to shrink by US$2 trillion, four times the largest 12-month decline ever, from 2018-19."

that's from a ZH wrapup piece I'm browsing over by Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley

Now they could be talking their book, but yeah, you never can have enough popcorn on hand in the pantry...

(Sypkan - if rather than destroy the lot, you just interrupt the credit expansion, you can hose weak hands out and the system/game continues on as it has done. If you blow credit expansion to the moon ("Minsky Melt Up"; hyperinflation) then you don't get to play this game again for a while. Which is nicer?)

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 8 Feb 2022 at 11:13am

Strange to think that there are people around Australia seriously contemplating voting for more of this….

Albo is unelectable but the LNP should not even be walking the streets.

GreenJam's picture
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GreenJam Wednesday, 9 Feb 2022 at 3:17pm

that's great udo, its been a long fight, but not over yet. Let's see how Sekisui respond...

Robwilliams's picture
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Robwilliams Wednesday, 9 Feb 2022 at 6:14pm
GreenJam wrote:

that's great udo, its been a long fight, but not over yet. Let's see how Sekisui respond...

People getting vocal and acting on it, so important, so needed in many communities Australia wide, Positive change starts with us. Awareness is rising. People are becoming more solidified in whats happening. Communicate Activate. Represent your concerns and ideas.

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monkeyboy Wednesday, 9 Feb 2022 at 6:26pm
donweather wrote:

The key outake from the Kohler article is this "Now loans and advances total $2966.1 billion, or 150 per cent of GDP." We have more debt locked up in loans than 1.5 times our GDP!!! Just stop and ask yourself what would happen if that debt couldn't be repaid. Who is going to suffer if this is the case. It HAS to be the banks. And if the banks collapse we all know what that means don't we!!! It's a scary thought that Australians believe real estate is safe haven. Something that you can never lose on. Or worst still, something that doesn't really affect our economy. Well at 150% of GDP, when the arse end falls out of the housing market......Australian's are gonna be left wondering what the fck just happened.

The taxpayer is on the hook for the banks. Bail in legislation was passed a few years back (quietly) and we've backstopped them since the GFC and more recently the Covid "crisis".

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/verging-on-ponzi-how-the-banks-are-rortin...

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/bankster-bailout-will-the-trickle-down-pa...

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 10:37am

You know you're in trouble when the banks are forecasting a downturn!!

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2022/02/09/banks-house-price...

I'd be suggesting their 10% is very conservative too (ie it's likely to be much much higher).

bonza's picture
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bonza Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 11:27am
donweather wrote:

You know you're in trouble when the banks are forecasting a downturn!!

https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2022/02/09/banks-house-price...

I'd be suggesting their 10% is very conservative too (ie it's likely to be much much higher).

yeah but like the article says. they all got it horribly wrong in 2020. unless you are new buyer that cant cope with a significant rate rise then 10% is bugger all. that leaves average price growth still around 10% or more higher vs 2020.

author say banks are calling "crash" then in the same breath quotes CBA saying significant “cooling”.? same same?

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 12:51pm

10%??
Nothing to see here.
Tabloid reportage of a non-event.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 12:58pm

Exactly, click bait headline contradicted by the content of the article.

donweather's picture
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donweather Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 2:42pm

I think you're missing the point. If the banks are calling a drop you can bet your left nut that's bad news and in fact the drop will be much greater than 10% that the banks are predicting

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 2:45pm

Banks predicted 20-30% drop Mar 2020.

We got a rise greater than that.

Did you actually read the article Don?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 3:00pm

This is why it's great to have the popcorn on hand, you never know exactly when it's time to cook it up, but it's nice to have it in the pantry. Like being collared and pleasantly surprised vs tearing one's hair out trying to guess the day.

We did go down a little in USD terms Freeride, before the slingshot north.
A 10% drop, I recall that was predicted for Perth circa 2008 - mining boom resumed on Chinese stimulus, then faded in years to come as that faded. It didn't immediately drop 10% but might have eventually; some sections got hit harder - iirc some Mandurah canals or MH suburbs that were flavoursome late in the boom fell 50%? Correct me if I'm wrong - and this happened eventually.

We'll all know it in hindsight if we see it; we won't know the day if we can see weakness before. That said, I know many that would be cheering it, and these threads would be a wonderful in-time reporting of it.

GreenJam's picture
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GreenJam Thursday, 10 Feb 2022 at 3:03pm

too right Robwilliams.

reminds me of the old 4ZZZ mantra - agitate, educate, organise. I think we'll need a lot more of that, sprinkled with a little civil disobedience, on many fronts into the future

here's hoping the Yaroomba/Coolum community are spared the Sekisui monstrosity, and the turtles can safely go about their business in the dunes

gsco's picture
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gsco Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 8:47am

The US economy now appears to be back in a 70s and 80s style boom-bust scenario: U.S. consumer prices post largest annual gain in 40 years as inflation becomes widespread:
- Consumer prices increase 0.6% in January
- CPI rises 7.5% year-on-year
- Core CPI gains 0.6%; up 6.0% year-on-year
This is not what reserve banks were forecasting or hoping for. I think most economists globally thought they would never again see inflation at 7.5% annually in the US.

In the AP News article, US reserve banks are even coming out and saying things like:

James Bullard wrote:

James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, told Bloomberg News that he supported a sharp increase of a full percentage point in the benchmark short-term interest rate by July.

That's showing some panic.

It will be very interesting to see if the US can manufacture a soft landing here. Fascinating that something like this is playing out in realtime.

The graph of US inflation expectations says it all:

fyi here's a graphical indication of the correlation between US and Aus bond yields:

Can your personal or household budget comfortably handle the possibility of interest rates going back up to at least pre-covid levels?

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 12:58pm
freeride76 wrote:

Banks predicted 20-30% drop Mar 2020.

We got a rise greater than that.

Did you actually read the article Don?

No Steve I just posted the link to it.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 1:03pm
donweather wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

Banks predicted 20-30% drop Mar 2020.

We got a rise greater than that.

Did you actually read the article Don?

No Steve I just posted the link to it.

AKA Met bureau said a cyclone would hit Darwin and it never did. I guess this means no cyclones will ever hit Darwin!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 1:10pm

I think economists make worse predictions that meteorologists.

by a fair whack.

Anyhow, we're in the second month of 2022 and things are still going gangbusters here.

According to Don's article the Banks expect a 3% rise this year, which on top of the 20% rise since 2020 means that even if we get a 10% correction in 2024 we are still 13% above pre-covid levels.
Doesn't sound like much of a crash to me.

Personally I reckon we'll be lucky to get the 10% drop with the increase of immigration back into the cities and work from home now entrenched and firing up the regions.

I reckon we will get a slight levelling off in the rate of growth.

we'll see.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 1:18pm

I just think the article is a beat up.
If the "biggest housing crash in decades" is 10%, (which takes us back to what prices were about 6 months ago), then it's barely worth talking about.
And that's assuming it happens.

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 2:46pm
freeride76 wrote:

I think economists make worse predictions that meteorologists.

by a fair whack.

Anyhow, we're in the second month of 2022 and things are still going gangbusters here.

According to Don's article the Banks expect a 3% rise this year, which on top of the 20% rise since 2020 means that even if we get a 10% correction in 2024 we are still 13% above pre-covid levels.
Doesn't sound like much of a crash to me.

Personally I reckon we'll be lucky to get the 10% drop with the increase of immigration back into the cities and work from home now entrenched and firing up the regions.

I reckon we will get a slight levelling off in the rate of growth.

we'll see.

Markets are typically lead by the big capital cities. Syd and Melb already coming off the boil, these are usual lead indicators. I dont expect any real softening in housing in the first half of 2022. Wait for the 2nd half and further into 2023.

And I'm calling for way more than 10% drop!!!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 3:13pm

Copy that Don.
You've been consistent with your predictions.

It would have to fall by 25-30 to get back to pre-Covid.

it would take an almighty economic collapse for that to happen.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 11 Feb 2022 at 9:18pm

I quite liked his explanation of how raising the 3rd world has shafted the first. He manages to get most of the themes I've unearthed over the years; and his point that chaos tends to increase is interesting. A picture of these times, which he correctly labels as an abberation; and a thematic path presented for how the future may unfold.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 10:42am
gsco's picture
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gsco Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 11:39am

Interesting article Don, but I don't quite get Kohler.

Sure he's pointing out the obvious, that on the face of it there appears to be a divergence in monetary policy over the past 6 months or so compared to previous decades, as is evidenced by comparing the cash (interest) rate to inflation:

The RBA historically has been quite preemptive with the cash rate (right axis), raising it well before inflation (left axis) gets above the 3% upper band limit. But recently inflation has been allowed to get to 4% and no movement on the cash rate.

But what Kohler seems reluctant to mention that since early 2020 the RBA has had in place a quite large quantitative easing (or as they call it, unconventional monetary policy) program. And they just ended it last week.

So just last week the RBA took a significant step in winding back an important and very large aspect of its monetary policy stimulus. It's pretty reasonable for them to now wait for at least a couple of quarters of inflation results to gauge the effect of doing this winding back.

I think Kohler is going a bit rogue and being a bit misleading with this latest article.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 3:44pm

GSCO do you have a source for that chart above please. I'd like to see it go back further in time please.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 4:05pm

RBA is simply stating they will not crash the economy by raising rates until they see sustained wages growth.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 4:17pm

I know what the RBA is stating. I just think the horse has bolted and they’ll struggle to catch up.

gsco's picture
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gsco Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 4:32pm
flollo's picture
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flollo Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 5:02pm

'People have gone from $150,000 to $250,000 per year'

https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/careers/rise-of-the-counter-offer-t...

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 6:20pm
flollo wrote:

'People have gone from $150,000 to $250,000 per year'

https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/careers/rise-of-the-counter-offer-t...

Paid firewall

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 14 Feb 2022 at 6:20pm
gsco wrote:

Don: https://tradingeconomics.com/

Thanks

Robwilliams's picture
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Robwilliams Wednesday, 16 Feb 2022 at 11:24am
freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 9:37am

You still feeling this crash Don?

Latest housing estate just heading to market in Byron Bay.

Mostly low lying land, Legoland estate, small blocks, Metricon homes.

Developer Terry Agnew bought the land in 2007 for 7 million.

In 2014, the house/land packages were expected to finally hit the market in 2020 at a price of 595'000 to 750'000.

House land packages now start at 3 million and go up from there.

Demand is high.

Brought land for 7 million in 2007.

141 lots in initial stage selling for 3 million plus in 2022.

Most of that land will be currently underwater.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 9:42am

"House land packages now start at 3 million and go up from there."

Just did a search for house and land packages in Adelaide, and the sliding bar for 'price' ranged between $150K and $600K.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 9:52am

The unofficial symbol for Byron has for quite some time been a Kombi with a long board on top.
In the not too distant future it will change to a Tesla with a mid length.
It’s already bordering on a cliche.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 10:02am

You'll be happy to know Andy, that the 3 million gets you a Tesla charging station in the garage.

true!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 10:04am

The most hilarious thing is that during all the argy-bargy over zoning and dealing with the public opposition to the development, one of the ways the developer pacified the council and state Govt was by promising "affordable housing" to ease the housing crisis in Byron Bay.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 12:34pm
freeride76 wrote:

You'll be happy to know Andy, that the 3 million gets you a Tesla charging station in the garage.

true!

Of course!

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brucebruce Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 4:09pm
freeride76 wrote:

The most hilarious thing is that during all the argy-bargy over zoning and dealing with the public opposition to the development, one of the ways the developer pacified the council and state Govt was by promising "affordable housing" to ease the housing crisis in Byron Bay.

Same guy just bought Condons Hill in Lennox for 14 mill.
Affordable housing overlooking the point perhaps?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 5:38pm

Same guy: Terry Agnew.

Reckons he won't rezone the rural block and develop it.

I give it less than 5 years.

I'll definitely make a play for the two donkeys on there if he does.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 6:19pm

14 mill's starting to sound cheap.

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AndyM Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 6:28pm

I believe this is Terry Agnew's wife at their home, in a photo accompanying an article on him in The Australian.

I also have it on good authority that this is the style he'll be bringing to his Lennox developments, including the North American Indian head-dress you see.
I mean after all, cultural appropriation is A Thing in Northern NSW.

I could be wrong on the second point though.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 6:46pm

Speaking of development in Lennox, Simon Baker has allegedly bought this place.

https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-lennox+head-136987686

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lostdoggy Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 7:00pm
AndyM wrote:

Speaking of development in Lennox, Simon Baker has allegedly bought this place.

https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-lennox+head-136987686

$2.9m for that then the demo and build on top.
Jeezus

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tubeshooter Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 7:00pm

I don't think Tez would miss 14M .
He mentions Byron real estate from about 17:00 on in this clip.

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Rusty Forest Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 7:03pm
AndyM wrote:

Speaking of development in Lennox, Simon Baker has allegedly bought this place.

https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-lennox+head-136987686

What a bargain!! With all that very friable super 6 Asbestos corrugated roof. Yeah baby..

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 7:18pm

From interview above: "whatever you paid for it, multiply by 10 to 20......"

so he paid 7 million.

Obvious how zoning creates mega profits for developers.

bonza's picture
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bonza Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 8:24pm
freeride76 wrote:

From interview above: "whatever you paid for it, multiply by 10 to 20......"

so he paid 7 million.

Obvious how zoning creates mega profits for developers.

Fuck that guy and fuck his mates.
https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/2022/02/new-metrics-to-show-value-...

Meanwhile in domain article today they r talking about the challenges of being a dual house holder and forgetting to bring your preferred clothing items to your holiday home.
And people wonder why others wanna see the world burn.

flollo's picture
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flollo Monday, 28 Feb 2022 at 11:51am

I really feel sorry for that whole area. It doesn't stand a chance. I like to visit but I would never live there.