House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 11:07am

Some interesting reading in those articles. On one hand property prices growing rapidly Australia-wide, on the other bureaucratic challenges with providing more housing.

stunet's picture
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stunet Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 11:31am

Was listening to a radio show the other day about the movement away from owning cars. I've always been dubious about the merits of that, but various policy wonks were interviewed about it, all agreeing this was a coming trend.

Yet when I see housing plans such as that in Sydney's south-west corridor I feel vindicated: there's no train lines, and people are only so tolerant of buses. There's no way on Earth new families in such housing developments will do away with cars.

That whole south-west corridor feels like a hodge podge of housing; like a farmer puts his land for sale so they build houses there, then another farmer 10kms away puts his land for sale and they build houses there etc etc. No prior planning for public transport, education, or other infrastructure.

flow's picture
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flow Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 11:40am

Yep. You can only get away with using public transport in the major cities. Even then unless you are without children it would be onerous.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 12:06pm

Most people still need a car to get to a train station anyway.

Once electric cars kick in and become more affordable cars will become even more attractive cheaper to run and maintain.

flollo's picture
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flollo Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 12:17pm

Suburban spread is too big. We need more quality built units in already established areas, not more houses built on farmland. Usually, when I talk to people about this they complain about the pressure on local infrastructure from more people living in the same suburb/area. My answer to that is that taking infrastructure kms out of the city is very costly and more expensive. I spent the last decade working on various infrastructure projects and building kms of new infrastructure was always more expensive than modifying already existing services.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 12:32pm

Problem is Flollo, people don't want to live in increased density, with rare exceptions.

I agree with Indo, once electric cars kick in, the move away from the cities for improved lifestyle will only increase.

andy-mac's picture
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andy-mac Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 12:56pm
freeride76 wrote:

Problem is Flollo, people don't want to live in increased density, with rare exceptions.

I agree with Indo, once electric cars kick in, the move away from the cities for improved lifestyle will only increase.

Will people still want an individual car? Uber style self driving cars could reduce congestion?? Flying drones as transportation?
Think things could change quickly.

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freeride76 Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 1:09pm

Who knows, but I think, yes.

For a long time to come; we are a society accustomed to satisfying individual desires above all else.

Uber, UberEats, etc etc are all premised on those desires being satisfied immediately.

Hard to see communitarianism overriding those desires of the "maximal" self anytime soon.

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andy-mac Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 1:15pm
freeride76 wrote:

Who knows, but I think, yes.

For a long time to come; we are a society accustomed to satisfying individual desires above all else.

Uber, UberEats, etc etc are all premised on those desires being satisfied immediately.

Hard to see communitarianism overriding those desires of the "maximal" self anytime soon.

True....
Guess in Australia definitely the case. If lived in country such as Singapore, could easily do without car.

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flollo Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 1:29pm
freeride76 wrote:

Problem is Flollo, people don't want to live in increased density, with rare exceptions.

I agree with Indo, once electric cars kick in, the move away from the cities for improved lifestyle will only increase.

Yes, I agree and I am personally one of those people.

However, I like to take an umbrella view and think more strategically. If our population grows at 1%+ per year which is very realistic it will add 200,000+ people to the population every year (now Blowin will complain about liberal/labour immigration conspiracy...). This part of the population by default can't carry this historical-cultural obsession with houses because it is a future increase. It's important that population growth for the next 20 years+ can take a shot at independent living, unit or a house, rent or buy.

I have personally gone through this; I lived in x 2 rental units at prime beach locations for over 6 years (with kids) until I managed to secure my own house. The goal was a house but without those 2 units, I would never get there. And those units were way cheaper to rent than they were to buy, meaning I could live in a prime location.

So, although I agree with the house as a 'final destination' I believe it is important to have quality, high-density opportunities for young people, migrants, renters to take an easier shot at independent living. This would take some pressure off houses and hopefully minimise the conversion of productive farmland into suburbia.

flollo's picture
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flollo Monday, 7 Mar 2022 at 1:19pm
garyg1412's picture
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garyg1412 Monday, 7 Mar 2022 at 2:06pm

Not on the horizon Flollo. More like a freight train barrelling down the tracks. I say watch this space.
If you've got players like Metricon insisting you fork out an extra 80 grand to get your house started or alternatively walk away, then my (unprofessional and unsolicited) financial advice is to walk away. I know that's easy for me to say, but no matter who your builder is, your additional payment to cover increased costs is not going to cover future increased costs by the time they start digging. And in some instances will disappear altogether with your original deposit down the liquidators black hole.
What's happening at the moment is Covid related supposedly. Wait until the oil price and Eastern European problems kick in. I would hate to be trying to get into the new housing market at the moment.

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Dx3 Monday, 7 Mar 2022 at 2:55pm

So potential takeaway from that is for existing houses (those that don't require significant reno job or knockdown & build again), prices could continue to head north.

But yes, big watch out for any house and land packages.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Monday, 7 Mar 2022 at 3:41pm

I don't really see how one could justify buying house and land - particularly now.

I assume people just really want a brand new house and all fittings for a low price, but far out, it'd be a nightmare with the contracts, build quality etc.

Can't really see established housing in prime areas dropping significantly, or at all, for a long long time.

Dx3's picture
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Dx3 Monday, 7 Mar 2022 at 4:28pm

Re: house and land, I imagine it all comes down to cost and what people can afford. Majority would be in new estates, in outer areas to established suburbs so lower in price, they require less $ upfront potentially so it allows more time to continue saving etc, and less competitive (I assume) than trying your luck at auctions. So that would be why people do it, and less about having a brand new house.

But I say all this as somebody that never entertained the idea.

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velocityjohnno Monday, 7 Mar 2022 at 9:39pm
andy-mac wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

Problem is Flollo, people don't want to live in increased density, with rare exceptions.

I agree with Indo, once electric cars kick in, the move away from the cities for improved lifestyle will only increase.

Will people still want an individual car? Uber style self driving cars could reduce congestion?? Flying drones as transportation?
Think things could change quickly.

All that may be true, but a car is handy for taking a quiver around the coast and securely storing things when out for a surf. "I left my step up in the community mini-van..." Hmmm

andy-mac's picture
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andy-mac Tuesday, 8 Mar 2022 at 3:49pm
velocityjohnno wrote:
andy-mac wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

Problem is Flollo, people don't want to live in increased density, with rare exceptions.

I agree with Indo, once electric cars kick in, the move away from the cities for improved lifestyle will only increase.

Will people still want an individual car? Uber style self driving cars could reduce congestion?? Flying drones as transportation?
Think things could change quickly.

All that may be true, but a car is handy for taking a quiver around the coast and securely storing things when out for a surf. "I left my step up in the community mini-van..." Hmmm

Yep point taken...
I'm a hypocrite, I dig having my car ...

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 8 Mar 2022 at 6:32pm

We surfers are a bit unique in the need to securely port gear around - a bit like tradies with all the tools in their utes/vans. I reckon we will get a bit fractious when we get to the 'you'll own nothing and be happy' moment as we need the boards.

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davetherave Tuesday, 8 Mar 2022 at 6:34pm

Not really, social media and groups could mean a van could quite easily mean, we could all share. Share being the key word.

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Tuesday, 8 Mar 2022 at 6:34pm

Not really, social media and groups could mean a van could quite easily mean, we could all share. Share being the key word.

tip-top1's picture
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tip-top1 Tuesday, 8 Mar 2022 at 6:45pm
flollo wrote:

Problems on the horizon

https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/metricon-confirms-contract-re...

there's been word on the streets from mid to late last year metricon where handing back peoples deposits
and basically null and voiding the contracts , pretty much challenging the client to push for the contract to proceed , all due to the material and land price rises .
dont know anybody personally in this situation, but have heard the same story from multiple different people

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 8 Mar 2022 at 7:25pm
tip-top1 wrote:
flollo wrote:

Problems on the horizon

https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/metricon-confirms-contract-re...

there's been word on the streets from mid to late last year metricon where handing back peoples deposits
and basically null and voiding the contracts , pretty much challenging the client to push for the contract to proceed , all due to the material and land price rises .
dont know anybody personally in this situation, but have heard the same story from multiple different people

They have a number of problems apart from rising material cost that eat away at profit margins, suppliers of timber will only provided up to the same or similar amount of timber that a company bought in the year prior to shortages, basically so timber can be shared around and one company cant stockpile it all.

Second problem is framing companies also cant get timber so frame and truss times are very long.

Contracts also have deadline dates that must be meet sometimes with penalties, but those dates aren't realistic with backlogs of materials etc

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groundswell Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 2:30am

Lands cheap where i live but summers are very hot winters get very cold, we just 6 or 8 months ago had a severe cyclone that doubled in power as it hit us and still most people are living under tarps on the roof waiting for insurance companies to get off their ass.
Still rent and land prices are cheap. place next door to me just sold for $190 000 but is a bnb earning $300 a day by tourists who stayed there. Owen and Mikey wright stayed there but got banned as they left the place in a mess.Still they were cool blokes.

tip-top1's picture
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tip-top1 Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 7:15am
indo-dreaming wrote:
tip-top1 wrote:
flollo wrote:

Problems on the horizon

https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/metricon-confirms-contract-re...

there's been word on the streets from mid to late last year metricon where handing back peoples deposits
and basically null and voiding the contracts , pretty much challenging the client to push for the contract to proceed , all due to the material and land price rises .
dont know anybody personally in this situation, but have heard the same story from multiple different people

They have a number of problems apart from rising material cost that eat away at profit margins, suppliers of timber will only provided up to the same or similar amount of timber that a company bought in the year prior to shortages, basically so timber can be shared around and one company cant stockpile it all.

Second problem is framing companies also cant get timber so frame and truss times are very long.

Contracts also have deadline dates that must be meet sometimes with penalties, but those dates aren't realistic with backlogs of materials etc

hey indo , yeah I realise all of the above that you said , I'm a chippy/ builder , I personally haven't had any real dramas with material shortages etc, but when the whole covid thing kicked off and the government announced their housing rollout I switched back to labour only and work for a couple of builders so I guess I've sort of dodged a bullet,
I was quoting a couple of renos etc and could very well been in deep shit if I didn't somehow see what was coming before it came

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freeride76 Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 7:21am

My mate got caught out down here in the local estate.
there was some kind of hiccup with council over the plans, which was deemed a voiding of the contract by the builder.
He had to renegotiate for an extra hundred grand, which luckily the bank came to the party on.

wingnut2443's picture
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wingnut2443 Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 8:17am
stunet wrote:

Was listening to a radio show the other day about the movement away from owning cars. I've always been dubious about the merits of that, but various policy wonks were interviewed about it, all agreeing this was a coming trend.

Yet when I see housing plans such as that in Sydney's south-west corridor I feel vindicated: there's no train lines, and people are only so tolerant of buses. There's no way on Earth new families in such housing developments will do away with cars.

That whole south-west corridor feels like a hodge podge of housing; like a farmer puts his land for sale so they build houses there, then another farmer 10kms away puts his land for sale and they build houses there etc etc. No prior planning for public transport, education, or other infrastructure.

Stu, when ya get a spare 5, have a crawl through the various state development plans. You'll be surprised what future planning is already underway, and how what appear to be ad hoc developments somehow link to broader plans for infrastructure etc.

Here's a link to get ya started: https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Plans-for-your-area

A couple of examples of what I know, have seen, etc.

1. Here on the Tweed Coast, before we moved here, I researched the land developments and state planning documents. At the time, things like Cobaki Lakes and Kings Forest were 'concepts' but no details, yet in the state planning documents they were laid out ... together with, the Tweed Hospital site, and the 'education hub' nearby etc.

2. I was involved with a Chamber of Commerce, as the nominee for a State Govt 'economic development' group on the Sunny Coast. In early 2000's, at a meeting, State Gov reps tabled the plans for what is now "Aura" aka Caloundra South, with all the highway overpasses upgrades (Bells Creek) and the now 'updated' Caloundra and Maroochydore exits etc. At the time, there was lots of interest in the possible route(s) for the 'camcos' rail, and yet, there is was on the plans ...

State Governments do a lot of forward planning ... most can't be public. But, if you dig, you can find out a lot of the future direction.

wingnut2443's picture
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wingnut2443 Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 8:30am
Stok wrote:

I don't really see how one could justify buying house and land - particularly now.

I assume people just really want a brand new house and all fittings for a low price, but far out, it'd be a nightmare with the contracts, build quality etc.

Can't really see established housing in prime areas dropping significantly, or at all, for a long long time.

Existing already built house = certainty. That's what's driven the market.

The 'building' issues have been an issue for a while. Buy land, hope to get a house built (cost rises, builder goes broke, etc.) or buy a house already built?

And, history shows house prices do in fact fall ...

https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/household-sector/housing-prices...

wingnut2443's picture
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wingnut2443 Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 8:25am
freeride76 wrote:

My mate got caught out down here in the local estate.
there was some kind of hiccup with council over the plans, which was deemed a voiding of the contract by the builder.
He had to renegotiate for an extra hundred grand, which luckily the bank came to the party on.

Steve, ballpark build cost? I'm curious as to the % of the extra 100k compared to the original contract ... represent about 20% increase by chance?

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groundswell Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 9:30am
wingnut2443 wrote:

And, history shows house prices do in fact fall ...

https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/household-sector/housing-prices...

That's exactly what has happened to geraldton and Kalbarri land prices in the last 8 years drops by $500 000 houses to $180 000 due to mining decline and crime.

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donweather Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 9:25pm
wingnut2443 wrote:
Stok wrote:

I don't really see how one could justify buying house and land - particularly now.

I assume people just really want a brand new house and all fittings for a low price, but far out, it'd be a nightmare with the contracts, build quality etc.

Can't really see established housing in prime areas dropping significantly, or at all, for a long long time.

Existing already built house = certainty. That's what's driven the market.

The 'building' issues have been an issue for a while. Buy land, hope to get a house built (cost rises, builder goes broke, etc.) or buy a house already built?

And, history shows house prices do in fact fall ...

https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/images/household-sector/housing-prices...

Interesting chart. So if household debt hasn’t increased but property prices have gone through the roof does that mean the only people buying houses in the last twelve months were cashed up?

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nickca Wednesday, 9 Mar 2022 at 9:53pm

For those of us who are not mathematicians the first impression is that thing s are on par but with the different ratios in the side columns seems to suggest that if the same ratios were used that the different worm graphs would reflect something that a superficial glance might not. Please explain.. In a nice way…

flollo's picture
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flollo Thursday, 10 Mar 2022 at 1:14am
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Robwilliams Monday, 14 Mar 2022 at 9:32am
bonza's picture
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bonza Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 12:21pm

“At a local level, we can get away with not planning for climate change because you’re not required to, which is why we still see subdivisions on flood plains. "

https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/gut-wrenching-the-climate-change-ri...

emphasising once again that developers and real estate agents are arseholes

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 1:42pm
bonza wrote:

“At a local level, we can get away with not planning for climate change because you’re not required to, which is why we still see subdivisions on flood plains. "

https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/gut-wrenching-the-climate-change-ri...

emphasising once again that developers and real estate agents are arseholes

While they may be aresholes, why blame them for playing the game by the rules.

The real problem is government:
Why is sub-division on flood plains still allowed?
What is the state or federal government plan for affordable housing?
What is the plan for somewhere like Lismore? Is significant flooding on a regular basis the accepted plan?

This stuff is actually the job of government to plan and action, nothing to do with developers or real estate agents.

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bonza Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 2:04pm

100% government need to step up and take a lead on this.

doesn't discount the shoddy practise of knowingly selling off faulty product. not one bit. I suppose bags of cash helps one sleep at night knowing they have just flipped off another piece off soon to be inundated dirt to another fool. buyer beware right.

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Optimist Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 2:35pm

When the river towns were first settled over a hundred years ago, people used the river for business and transport. Timber and ag products the big ones and the riverside houses were solid timber elevated basic qld style and most people had a solid timber table and chairs and very few possessions. Rich people might have had a grandfather clock and nice crockery. Transport would have been a horse and cart down stairs beside the hay shed. Very little to move or lose during a big flood. The world is different now. Mountains of modern stuff that virtually explodes when wet. Buildings lined with suicidal gyprock and carpets and chipboard floors and furniture. Perhaps people who choose to live by the river need to rethink the way they live. If not, there is higher ground all around Australia to build a safe life with all its material assets. None of this is the Govts fault. Life is about choices and risk vs benefit. Regardless of it not being the Govts fault they have sprung (though a bit slower than many would like ) into helpful action. Like the other disasters, we have a good government in this country who do help people get going again regardless. Some of the ungrateful scenes I have witnessed are a reflection of the darker side of modernism. Risk vs. benefit….that’s life..make wise choices and if things go wrong, you learn and move on.

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freeride76 Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 2:58pm

"The world is different now. Mountains of modern stuff that virtually explodes when wet. Buildings lined with suicidal gyprock and carpets and chipboard floors and furniture."

Thats so true.

That gyprock turns to cottage cheese.

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sypkan Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 4:08pm

"...Mountains of modern stuff that virtually explodes when wet. Buildings lined with suicidal gyprock and carpets and chipboard floors and furniture. Perhaps people who choose to live by the river need to rethink the way they live. If not, there is higher ground all around Australia to build a safe life with all its material assets. None of this is the Govts fault. Life is about choices and risk vs benefit..."

couldn't agree more

yep, the rescue mission was a bloody shambles, but this sense of entitlement that the government must bail out peope's poor life choices is just ridiculous

I was looking at buying a house in woodburn a few years ago, there's a reason I was looking at that house... it was the cheapest on the market... and there's reasons for that... woodburn is not a glamourous town, built on a floodplain, and that house would've been metres under water a week or two ago...

I knew that when looking at it, but it was a risk I was willing to take... for lifestyle, and because it was the only one I could afford... risk/benefit...

I would not have my hand out now for government assistance, I 'd probably take it if offered... but all this criticism and sense of entitlement is next level...

australians need to get over this idea the government owe them something whatever the occurance

do your reasearch, take your chances, it's not nanny's responsibility

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AndyM Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 4:55pm

"poor life choices" that people must live on the floodplain in Lismore, Coraki and the like?
Sorry mate, it's necessity as a result of crazy housing prices and wealth disparity around here.
The government needs to be called to account a long way prior to whether or not they bail people out.

Cockee's picture
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Cockee Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 5:10pm

Andy, if you want equality go live in China or Nth Korea. Sure you'll be very happy with your choice.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 5:26pm
sypkan wrote:

"...Mountains of modern stuff that virtually explodes when wet. Buildings lined with suicidal gyprock and carpets and chipboard floors and furniture. Perhaps people who choose to live by the river need to rethink the way they live. If not, there is higher ground all around Australia to build a safe life with all its material assets. None of this is the Govts fault. Life is about choices and risk vs benefit..."

couldn't agree more

yep, the rescue mission was a bloody shambles, but this sense of entitlement that the government must bail out peope's poor life choices is just ridiculous

I was looking at buying a house in woodburn a few years ago, there's a reason I was looking at that house... it was the cheapest on the market... and there's reasons for that... woodburn is not a glamourous town, built on a floodplain, and that house would've been metres under water a week or two ago...

I knew that when looking at it, but it was a risk I was willing to take... for lifestyle, and because it was the only one I could afford... risk/benefit...

I would not have my hand out now for government assistance, I 'd probably take it if offered... but all this criticism and sense of entitlement is next level...

australians need to get over this idea the government owe them something whatever the occurance

do your reasearch, take your chances, it's not nanny's responsibility

Agree 1000%

As harsh as it sounds its really up to people to do there due diligence and take self responsibility.

Buy on a flood plain expect a flood one day.

Buy near bushland and expect to one day have a fire come through.

Buy up far north QLD or NT near the coast and expect one day to be hit hard by a cyclone.

Buy on the beach expect erosion.

Or even have big trees right next to your house and expect one day for one to come down on your house during a storm.

If you choose to live in a high risk area, at least plan and build accordingly for instance choose to live on a flood plain build a very high pole house with no lower level.

Problem is people just think, argh it will be okay its only a one in 50 or 100 years risk, insurance often cost way to much so they skimp on that, and then when shit goes down they want the government to bail them out or magic fixes.

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freeride76 Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 5:39pm

Disagree.

Problem is: increasingly, people have no choice.

Live somewhere cheap or live out of the back of a car.

THATS the problem.

Optimist's picture
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Optimist Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 6:10pm

My 400k mortgage idea is the only solution…if anyone bothered to read it.

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Supafreak Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 6:20pm

Maybe you could email Scotty, he’s looking for some new election promises to get him over the line .

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Optimist Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 6:38pm

I’ve emailed frydenburg and my local member months ago with my ideas.I don’t know if they are good or bad but I try… I hope you do likewise if you like these thoughts..…if you can do better great …please send your ideas to your member…if you don’t….your just another whiner …all talk and no input.

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sypkan Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 9:04pm
freeride76 wrote:

Disagree.

Problem is: increasingly, people have no choice.

Live somewhere cheap or live out of the back of a car.

THATS the problem.

nah, that's a different problem

that's well out of hand, and tbh, requires an old school social housing solution, that ain't coming anytime soon...

how many people in this current tragedy, with million dollar houses, are going to have their hands out?

loads

whilst those most in need, once again, are still waiting for a trickle...

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freeride76 Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 9:05pm

I'm not so sure about that Syp.

Maybe Mullum and Ocean Shore/South Golden beach.

But deffo not Chinderah/Lismore/Woodburn/Coraki/Broadwater/Wardell/West Ballina.

I do agree with the social housing thing though.

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bonza Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 9:08pm

It’s a shit show. I have a real problem giving taxpayer money to those who knew or should know and rewarding them for their failed risk. I am in 100% favour of assisting those who have no choice but to live in such areas. It’s a scale and good luck navigating that when handing out grants.

Claiming it’s all buyer beware eat shit however is no different as saying it’s all the governments fault. Both unfair..There is however a scum pool who actively aim to pressure and lobby and profit from government inaction on land use planning by feeding on those through desperation fear naivety and budget find themselves buying in that area between the 1%AEP and probable max Flood zone.Same goes for buying in coastal hazard zone.though my sympathy for them is even less so given the money required to buy there.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 18 Mar 2022 at 9:47pm
Cockee wrote:

Andy, if you want equality go live in China or Nth Korea. Sure you'll be very happy with your choice.

That’s such a dumb comment.