House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 10:59am
Vic Local wrote:

.These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value.

Brilliantly said!!

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 11:45am

Don you set the bar low ."These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value."

I thought most Australians " invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value."

The effect on local communities due to holiday homes can be very negative . I remember speaking to a friends mother 20 years ago . She and her husband ( headmaster at Billynudgel Primary School ) retired to New Brighton on the coast .

We talked about how this small hamlet was changing with properties being bought as holiday homes . No kids going to schools etc and how the vibe of the place was changing . The problem has gotten much worse as now 30-40% ( maybe more ) of the properties would be beach houses .

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 12:12pm

“These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value.”

Isn’t that basically what you have done with your investment property Vic?

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 1:04pm
AndyM wrote:

“These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value.”

Isn’t that basically what you have done with your investment property Vic?

So I’m not the only one that was thinking that..

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 1:46pm
AndyM wrote:

“These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value.”

Isn’t that basically what you have done with your investment property Vic?

Ha ha I do have to give it to VL though for even admitting he had an investment property, would have been much easier just to not tell us.

But yeah pretty funny the anti capitalist has an investment property, reality is everyone wants to have as much financial security for themselves and family as possible, i don't blame his really but a bit hypercritical.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 1:58pm
AndyM wrote:

“These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value.”

Isn’t that basically what you have done with your investment property Vic?

Been through this before people. I bought a house that was un-rentable, falling down, and has significant access issues. I was the only bidder and did the place up using local materials and labour. We also have a local cleaner who gets paid generously. Our guests spend their $$$ in town and we actively promote activity and hospitality businesses in the region.
It's not a trophy home that sits empty 50 weeks of the year while the owner counts the total value of his assets in Sydney.
And yes, it has gone up in value, mainly due to sweat equity. And no it's not negatively geared you judgemental fucks.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 2:37pm

Hahaha I was thinking far out he’s gone this whole time without saying fuck, nek minnit…

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 3:07pm

So it’s all about the holiday rental bucks and not looking after locals?
I can’t believe you are so gosh darn mercenary ;)

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 3:50pm

I would like to defend Viclocal .

I am sure he did not buy the block of land ( the house sounds as though it needed to be pulled down ) thinking the it would go up in value in the future .

He must have just been lucky with the timing as he was only one bidder ( you must have got a bargain ) .
He didn't import materials or bring in slave labour from overseas to build the house and he did a good job . He lets his renters spend their money locally . He tries to rent it as much as he can to people that are nice ( and cashed up ) . He doesn't want to rent it to a local as they don't have as much money to spend locally as do the people from outside the region . It is not negatively geared as the rents he receives are more than the interest he pays on the loan .

He pays his cleaner a fortune and they spend this money locally .

It is not a trophy home that is used only sparingly by the owners when they visit and spend their money locally . They don't pay cleaners as much as he does .

It is not his fault , and he feels terrible , that it has gone up in value . The main reason for the huge increase was that he bought cheap ( he was willing to pay much more ).

Give him a break .

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 4:34pm
Vic Local wrote:

you judgemental f#*@s.

Hahahahahaha, pot, kettle.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 4:54pm

You have a point Fitzroy 21, but I'm judgemental when people spread covid misinformation or are racist dogs. Being judgemental when you're right isn't a problem. When people are hopelessly wrong, then it becomes an issue.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:06pm

So in this case it isn’t a problem?

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 5:27pm

I’ve got my popcorn out. Never tasted so good.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:45pm

I mean, it's impossible to imagine that there wasn't an able-bodied local person to rent out that house.

Isn't it?

Really impossible to imagine.

And towns like that which have been subjected to gentrification always have locals screaming out for affordable accomodation.

Like the cleaner.

Wonder where she stays.
The caravan park maybe?

That'd be a shame.
Yes, such a crying shame that locals would be priced out of their own town.

I've spent a lot of time in small towns like that which are within striking distance of big cities and without exception, visitors turning up for the weekend, or even a week, bring pretty much everything with them - food, grog, the whole shebang.

Surely if you were, you know, fair dinkum about investing in a small town you'd rent to locals whom you know would shop locally, support the local small business and whatnot.

Wouldn't you?

Don't get me wrong, I understand where you're coming from Vic.

Sometimes, like Tony Abbott says, shit happens.

People mean well but trying to squeeze as much money as you can out of a situation just takes precedence over things like a small community.

And humans.

It's ok mate, we've all been there.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 6:58pm

Guys he already told us nobody would ever rent it permanently, because the driveway is too far from the house, hence could only rent to BnB crew who don't mind the walk.

Yep.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 8:31pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

Guys he already told us nobody would ever rent it permanently, because the driveway is too far from the house, hence could only rent to BnB crew who don't mind the walk.

Yep.

That would rule out Air BnB crew with kids though wouldn’t it, or the elderly crew, or lazy cunce, or or or…

Ha ha ha I’m just stirring VL, nothing wrong with trying to do the best for you and your family as I’ve said in these forums before. ;-)

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tubeshooter Saturday, 23 Oct 2021 at 9:19pm

Classic
Credit where credit is due though, hutchies pisstake gave me a laugh.
Don't let that go to your head either hutchy.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 9:13am

Andy - you are wrong in this case ."I've spent a lot of time in small towns like that which are within striking distance of big cities and without exception, visitors turning up for the weekend, or even a week, bring pretty much everything with them - food, grog, the whole shebang."

Vic personally welcomes EVERY group to his rental property to ensure this does not happen . He doesn't tell them not to bring food and grog but he does confiscate them .

He would donate the horde to charity but figures they wouldn't like or appreciate the caviar , Grange , Moet and truffled honey .

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stunet Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 9:15am

Out of lockdown and still smothering every thread?

Go outside Hutchy.

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Hutchy 19 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 9:29am

When you say the same thing to BB I might take your advice Stu .

Been out quite a bit , enjoying some freedoms but still not allowed to go to the West Coast .

I spent about an hour on SN yesterday . Sorry you think it is too much . Easy to do when on my PC doing other work .

Any particular comment that pissed you off or just , as usual , all my opinions ?

stunet's picture
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stunet Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 9:35am

All of your opinions.

Though, once again, it isn't just me. We've had yet more people complaining about your inability to contribute to broad discussions without condescension. I understand it's invisible to you, so how about just not commenting a while?

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 9:55am

Stu - "inability to contribute to broad discussions without condescension."

I could name a big list of contributors who do this . At least I keep my swearing to a minimum . I wonder why people complain to you anon when they could do the same to me on a thread ? They probably do .

As I just said -When you say the same to BB I might listen . "so how about just not commenting a while?"

I will go outside for a while now . Good suggestion .

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 10:30am
goofyfoot wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:

Guys he already told us nobody would ever rent it permanently, because the driveway is too far from the house, hence could only rent to BnB crew who don't mind the walk.

Yep.

That would rule out Air BnB crew with kids though wouldn’t it, or the elderly crew, or lazy cunce, or or or…

Ha ha ha I’m just stirring VL, nothing wrong with trying to do the best for you and your family as I’ve said in these forums before. ;-)

Yep 100% or if it was really a true issue and you didn't know before arriving, imagine how pissed off you would be especially luging all your shit from the car to the house and back again, if you rented you do that once then the only other real bitch would be groceries.

Again 100% he is only human we all want the best financial security for our future and familys future, he only gets shit because of his contradicting views.

CMC's picture
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CMC Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 11:44am
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Stu - "inability to contribute to broad discussions without condescension."

I could name a big list of contributors who do this . At least I keep my swearing to a minimum . I wonder why people complain to you anon when they could do the same to me on a thread ? They probably do .
As I just said -When you say the same to BB I might listen . "so how about just not commenting a while?"
I will go outside for a while now . Good suggestion .

I lodged a complaint, not hiding behind the mods.
The reason I didn't comment to you directly is because it just gives more oxygen to your constant posting on nearly every topic and opinion on here.
Not asking for you to not comment, but maybe just back off a bit?
Haven't you got anything better to do than be on here so much?
Please don't bother responding to this... I've answered your question as to why some might complain anonymously.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 11:52am

Who doesn’t want to take a pot shot at the rank hypocrisy of the shrillest squealer on Swellnet.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 12:16pm

Let's take a walk down memory lane, to to a graph and opinion I posted here in Jan 2018.

https://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/338813?page=7

late 1990s - Howard - neocons- turn shelter into a trading commodity.
Once most of the boomers are safely in nursing homes being fleeced, the next logical step for the neocons would be to count Gen X and Y's "family home" as an asset, so when they turn 70 ( or even increase work age to 75), they are not eligible for any pension or health care card.
U know The dog is right hahahahahaha

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Hutchy 19 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 12:37pm

Stu - after a little bit of thought I have changed my mind .

In my life I have been treated differently in many fields to curb my influence .

Happy to have the same thing happen on SN . May I suggest that when you feel I am overdoing it you invoke the Hutchy Rule . I will continue to try and improve on my condensation which I feel I have after a poor start ( you and CMC probably disagree ) .

Sorry that we might need a rule but I am still learning to take a back seat on social media . On the sporting field it did not work at all .

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 1:10pm

The relation between Howard's term and property price rises was interest rates, going from a peak of 17% in 89 under Labor, to a low of just above 6% in 2002 under Howard

The Hawke/ Keating recession we had to have was also long gone and we entered one of the most prosperous periods of Australian history with almost 30 years without a recession.

With prosperous times and low interest rates comes rising property prices.

All around the world property prices have been rising due to low interest rates and less supply of land and other factors.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 1:26pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

The relation between Howard's term and property price rises was interest rates, going from a peak of 17% in 89 under Labor, to a low of just above 6% in 2002 under Howard

The Hawke/ Keating recession we had to have was also long gone and we entered one of the most prosperous periods of Australian history with almost 30 years without a recession.

With prosperous times and low interest rates comes rising property prices.

All around the world property prices have been rising due to low interest rates and less supply of land and other factors.

FMD

Increases in house prices during and since Howard had nothing to do with Howard's: (1) introduction of 1/2 CGT (2) continuation of negative gearing (3) allowing cashed up SMSF to borrow to invest in housing??????

Well all that online material* sourced from respected economists must be wrong coz info has spoken!

* a quick google will do it for those interested in some resurchin.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 1:49pm

Smiley - I think you are wrong . GST has never been halved or reduced . Not changing an existing rule makes no difference . SMSF were not allowed to borrow back then .

I am no economist but link one who said the above .

Interest rates going down was the major driver . High rates in the 70's and 80's caused prices to moderate . If the graph went to today it would also show prices going up due to rate decreases .

If you draw a trend line from 50 -90 you might have an indication of the normal increases that happen with immigration .

Rates will go up again . How high is anyone's guess . I wouldn't be surprised to see the next 30 years as no growth and prices coming back to the trend line . The market will go up until till a few rate hikes are in imo .

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 1:56pm

CGT…..GST…..OCD

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 2:01pm

FMDx2

Not GST you knucklehead CGT.
It was Howard that allowed SMSFs to borrow (changed the rules in the last months of his govt).
Immigration? Howard near on doubled the rate of that too.

When it comes to considering issues of inequity in AU a good starting point is always Howard.

Fliplid very good sir!

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 2:04pm

Oh dear hutchy.
Let me paraphrase your last post.
1. Gets GST and Capital Gains tax completely mixed up. 2, Claims he is no economist. 3, finishes with his economic advice / predictions.
just embarrassing Hutchy19.

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brutus Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 2:39pm
Fliplid wrote:

CGT…..GST…..OCD

then there's ADH , PTSD , LSD , REM ......ah the joys on Sunday!

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 2:41pm

“Not GST you knucklehead CGT”

Haha!
Love an understated insult -knucklehead, bellend, dickhead…

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 3:01pm
GuySmiley wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:

The relation between Howard's term and property price rises was interest rates, going from a peak of 17% in 89 under Labor, to a low of just above 6% in 2002 under Howard

The Hawke/ Keating recession we had to have was also long gone and we entered one of the most prosperous periods of Australian history with almost 30 years without a recession.

With prosperous times and low interest rates comes rising property prices.

All around the world property prices have been rising due to low interest rates and less supply of land and other factors.

FMD

Increases in house prices during and since Howard had nothing to do with Howard's: (1) introduction of 1/2 CGT (2) continuation of negative gearing (3) allowing cashed up SMSF to borrow to invest in housing??????

Well all that online material* sourced from respected economists must be wrong coz info has spoken!

* a quick google will do it for those interested in some resurchin.

There is no denying there are other factors that influence property prices back then and now, and yes I'm sure the government implemented changes to help the property market recover and the building industry to recover, i know where i live it was a mess under Labor, construction was completely dead, blocks of land sold off because the value in some cases was only equal to a few years worth of rates. (im sure a lot of people with big regrets there)

But im certain that any economist or any google search will agree very high interest rates like 17% a recession and ongoing uncertainty equals falling property prices or static at best and very low construction rates while the opposite lower interest rates like 6% and a healthy economy and positive outlook equals a healthy property market with an increase in building activity.

BTW. Rising property prices are generally not a bad thing much much better than falling property prices, and are a reflection of a healthy economy, i doubt anyone with half a brain would want to go back to interest rates of 17% and Labor's recession we had to have.

That's why Howard was re elected so many times and became Australias second longest running PM with 12 years at the helm, because life went from crap under Labor to much better under Howard, we even had this thing called employment again.

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GuySmiley Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 3:20pm

The 17% you refer to was as a result of Hawke/Keating deregulating banking including decoupling AU's interest rate from govt control. Existing mortgage holders (the vast majority) at that time were fixed at a ceiling of 13.5% so only new mortgages were allowed to go to the rate you love talking about. So the "market" increased rates by 3.5% bad enough but FFS don't compare 17% with 6% because that's F dishonest beyond belief. Further, at the time you could get real returns on money in the bank and especially in term deposits, people could and did save up a deposit for a house and houses didn't take 1.5-2.0 lifetimes to pay off e.g. we went through that period, interest rates went to 13.5% but we still managed to pay off our 30 year mortgage in just under 13 years.

Further, the very same Hawke/Keating reforms were praised by both sides of politics and all economists at the time including Howard who might have been Liberal leader or treasurer under Downer (FFS) at the time .... and it is said paved the way for the prosperity AU enjoyed in the Howard years.

Head hurty info? it should coz it isn't ever as simple as you make out.

adam12's picture
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adam12 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 3:36pm

In fact it is argued that Howard era economy was a direct result of Keating's change of approach, and all the benefit was squandered in pre-election bribes and handouts to keep Howard in power all those years, and further that the fucken ridiculous bubble over the housing market is a result of those same shit policies under Howard and Costello. But in Indoland, Labor bad, LNP good because he's a 'conservative' now and lost all those leftie ideals he carried in his youth when he grew up and learned stuff on the internet.

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GuySmiley Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 3:56pm

Howard years = Hawke/Keating reforms + mining boom #1 tax receipts + flog off public assets not bolted down + record low infrastructure spending + introduction of imperfect GST ..... and that’s before we start on how he wasted the reforms on ongoing largesse to the base locking in generational structural deficits . The unflushable turd of AU politics

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Vic Local Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 4:03pm

Fair point adam12.
Howard governed at a time with no major economic shocks, very high commodity prices, and unprecedented global economic growth.
Geez, even Hutchy and ID could have brought down budget surpluses between 1996 and 2007.
Howard was not a good PM, he was a fair weather PM who pissed away the good times. He missed the broadband and renewable energy revolutions, and his main legacies are middle class welfare, racism, and wars.
I will give him credit for gun control, the only good thing he did in 11 years.

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GuySmiley Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 4:26pm

Re: gun control + Tim Fischer the last honourable Nationals leader

adam12's picture
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adam12 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 6:42pm

I give the credit for the gun laws to Walter Mikac. Without him the politicians wouldn't have acted as they did. He was the driving force, after he buried his family he forced action, and he was a man that they couldn't ignore or pay lip service to, and although I have no time for Jeff Kennett, he met with Mikac early on and steered his advocacy through the LNP and also deserves some credit. I don't think we would have the gun laws we have now without Walter Micak.

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Hutchy 19 Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 7:02pm

I see I didn't read a comment closely enough . Not the first time or the last time .

I also see that I copped some strong abuse . Par for this course .

You really enjoyed my mistake Andy ! Good at abuse as well . Lots of examples on this site to copy . And Stu thinks I am the nasty one .

Not embarrassed Vic . Unintentional mistakes happen . It not as though I did anything deliberately the opposite of what I preach . Is it ?

I am not a real estate agent or an economist and I bet not many commenting and putting their views forward are .

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GuySmiley Sunday, 24 Oct 2021 at 7:09pm

..... but you work in finance, right?
Formally qualified, right?

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Monday, 25 Oct 2021 at 12:59am
indo-dreaming wrote:

The relation between Howard's term and property price rises was interest rates, going from a peak of 17% in 89 under Labor, to a low of just above 6% in 2002 under Howard

The Hawke/ Keating recession we had to have was also long gone and we entered one of the most prosperous periods of Australian history with almost 30 years without a recession.

With prosperous times and low interest rates comes rising property prices.

All around the world property prices have been rising due to low interest rates and less supply of land and other factors.

Well derrrrrrrrr..... Part of the neoconic plan of turning houses into dutch tulips is HAVING low interest rates. Impossible to do with higher rates, which reward frugile savers. Lets reward those that go into debt.

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Island Bay Monday, 25 Oct 2021 at 4:58am

Without going into details or taking sides, it's worth noting, that all the things you complain about in Aus are happening in NZ too - under an absolute-majority Labour Govt.

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indo-dreaming Monday, 25 Oct 2021 at 7:46am
Island Bay wrote:

Without going into details or taking sides, it's worth noting, that all the things you complain about in Aus are happening in NZ too - under an absolute-majority Labour Govt.

Yep

And the issue of housing affordability and rising prices is happening all over the world, even in Indonesia prices have been rising very fast, these developed countries will get worse too as credit becomes more of a thing and they transition from a cash based society to one where things go through the books and more people have the ability to borrow money.

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Hutchy 19 Monday, 25 Oct 2021 at 8:08am

Yes Smiley -..... but you work in finance, right?
Formally qualified, right?

But that somehow gives me no right to comment on what may happen in the future .

I did misread CGT . I am not aware that SMSF were ever allowed to borrow until recently . This may have happened before I entered the industry in 1990 . It took a few years before I learned how SMSF could work .

I have led an interesting life . This mistake has caused so little embarrassment it might rank 20979 on my list .

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Hutchy 19 Monday, 25 Oct 2021 at 8:31am

Someone might be interested in one of my embarrassing moments .

We were playing the toughest team in the comp who were out on the ground . We ran out and as we were running around the opposite wing my mother yelled out my name and " come and wave to your grandmother ( she had very poor sight ) " . I ran over and did as I was told and said hello . When I ran back to our group a mate said " fuck Hutch . Wave to your fucken grandmother ? "

In the same game our dog ran onto to the ground . A miniature white poodle . Of course it ran up to me , I picked her up and gave her to my father who was trailing behind .

My opposing player said " We put dogs like that on a spit ".

This game gets in my top 200 most embarrassing moments .

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Distracted Monday, 25 Oct 2021 at 10:49am

Slipped under the radar a bit but from next week in NSW there will be limitations of 90 days per year for short term rentals in Greater Sydney and 180 days per year in Newcastle. Meant to be policed by Council so be interesting to see how that pans out as it will have implications for investment properties .
https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Policy-and-Legislation/Under-review-and-...