House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 5:44pm
Vic Local wrote:

"Don’t reckon it was Don."
You can reckon whatever you like AndyM but it doesn't change the fact immigration to Australia has plummeted during the pandemic
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/population-change-2020

Fuck me, are we really going to play semantics with immigrants and returning expats??
The result is the same, actually expats would be more cashed up and ready to purchase.

Let’s make it clear, high levels of population growth will play a significant part in increasing demand for real estate and pushing up prices.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 5:47pm
Vic Local wrote:

Hang on blowin, you said housing prices were going to collapse 30-50% due to no immigration because of covid. You were so laughably wrong on that weren't you champ?.

To be fair he wasn't alone, lot of articles and views havent aged well.

April 2020

"Predictions house prices could fall by 30 per cent in worst-case scenario as coronavirus restrictions bite"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/worst-case-scenario-house-prices-...

May 2020

"THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON AUSTRALIA’S HOUSING MARKET

As the world faces one of the fastest and largest global economic contractions in living memory, Australia’s house prices are likely to fall for months – possibly years"

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-austra...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 5:47pm

See Ya Champ.
And next time you cherrypick an expert to support your warped agenda, it's best you read his whole article first to avoid humiliating yourself.

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 6:38pm

The article backs up Blowins assessment VL.

Oliver gives 2 main reasons why housing is expensive.

1. low interest rates

2. population growth of 150,000 per annum leading to a shortfall of supply

Clearly written in the article under the heading “So why is housing so expensive?”

Where’s the problem?

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 6:46pm
Fliplid wrote:

The article backs up Blowins assessment VL.

Oliver gives 2 main reasons why housing is expensive.

1. low interest rates

2. population growth of 150,000 per annum leading to a shortfall of supply

Clearly written in the article under the heading “So why is housing so expensive?”

Where’s the problem?

Because VicMoron has a hardon for Blowin and it doesn't matter what he says or any facts presented, he will cherrypick, argue, abuse and just be the DickVocal he is. Blinkers with no consideration for others points of view regardless.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 6:49pm

Yep. If I said that Vic Local was hung like a horse he’d swear blue in the face that he was in possession of a working vagina and that I was a dopey prick racist bullshitter for not acknowledging it.

Wait…maybe that’s not the best example?

Constance B Gibson's picture
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Constance B Gibson Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 7:07pm

Well, to be fair to Vic, Fitzy, Blowin' is, and I quote, "a dopey prick racist bullshitter."

On the positive side, at least some long overdue self-awareness is finally showing itself, I guess.

Baby steps.

Nigh nigh.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 7:19pm

Sorry CBG, but there is no longer any room to be fair to that moron. Too much history of being a one eyed sanctimonious asshat with no respect for others points of view, regardless of whether they are right or wrong. If someone does align with his high moral ground though, he will shamelessly cup those balls whilst taking a length down the throat, exercising his lack of gag reflex.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 7:31pm

Ha ha!

Thanks for ruining my dreams tonight Fitz.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 7:50pm

Seems you’re absolutely correct Fliplid, as discussed in that AMP article high levels of population growth are one of the main factors leading to expensive housing.
Who would’ve thought Vic Local could be so wrong?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 8:20pm

It's a pretty simple equation really. Do you think if 5 million Australians up and left the country tomorrow that house prices would continue to rise?

Nah, me neither.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 8:41pm
ringmaster wrote:

It's a pretty simple equation really. Do you think if 5 million Australians up and left the country tomorrow that house prices would continue to rise?

Nah, me neither.

Do you think that's ever going to happen ringmaster?
House prices are a bit more complex than that mate. Covid saw a massive decline in immigration and even periods of population decline in Australia but house prices went absolutely ballistic. Clearly, there are other forces at work.
Given how many people own a primary house, a holiday house, and a couple of investment properties, maybe supply isn't just determined by population. Notice how quiet town was when everyone was stuck in Melbourne?

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ringmaster Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 9:25pm

It's supply v demand like everything but yes, multiple property owners and foreign investment skew the figures.

I was just giving an example taking it to the nth degree which if that ever happened would lead to a drop in prices.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 9:49pm
ringmaster wrote:

It's supply v demand like everything but yes, multiple property owners and foreign investment skew the figures.

I was just giving an example taking it to the nth degree which if that ever happened would lead to a drop in prices.

Plus houses are bigger, filled with the latest tech and granite countertops, and the average number of people per household has declined significantly.

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 6:03am

Ha ha Fitzy

VL there have been plenty of “..other forces at work” and they have repeatedly been listed here on SN.

Returning ozzies who have been working overseas usually in high paying jobs who are cashed up and spending on real estate have more than compensated for the lack of immigration during covid. But…I’m not the first to mention that.

The other logical reasons are listed in that article by AMP you generously put up

If you want argue the topic fine but it seems you just want to target anyone that you don’t agree with, with a particular delight in going after Blowin, even if means dancing around the facts

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 7:54am

Fliplid. I'm happy to add "returning Ozzies" to the list of factors that push up demand, but that's not what blowin was banging on about. He was saying immigrants (who aren't even coming) are the primary reason for the price rises.
I genuinely feel sorry for people trying to break into the housing market. They've been dealt a dud hand, but I have a really big problem with the narrative being pushed that immigrants are to blame. It's divisive and offers false hope. Immigration levels have plummeted while housing prices have skyrocketed in the last 2 years. Clearly this factor is not the primary reason for house price increases.

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 8:03am
sypkan wrote:

donweather seems to have missed this...

""tidal wave of expatriate professionals returning home amid COVID-19"

https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2021/04/very-appealing-expat...

"more than 480,000 Australians ... have returned since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic – close to half the total number of Australians previously living abroad"

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/brain-gain-half-of-australia...

and vicvocal and others...

again...

Ex pats are not immigrants. And in fact I’d hazard a bet a fair chunk of those returning ex pats already own houses in Australia.

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 8:06am
garyg1412 wrote:

I don't know about the big cities but in the smaller urban areas like ours it's not government stimulus or early superannuation driving the housing market. It's wealthy people mainly from out of area paying whatever they want for real estate because they can. I might be wrong but in small communities word gets around about what properties get sold, how they get sold and who buys them. Any person in our area in the current market trying to get a mortgage for grossly over priced properties has two problems:
1) The bank valuation will be nowhere near what the asking price is, and
2) Any offers subject to finance are simply trumped by cash buyers in most instances.
So the only mass migration currently are the Boomers and rich city rats and they are having a huge effect on local communities I think.
The next industry to boom in these areas will be the renovation industry . All these new home owners won't be happy with the shit boxes they've just paid three times the going price for, and will want their stone tops and frameless showers installed quick smart and at any price.

bingo!!! Nail on the head right there.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 8:07am

Yeah, and like I said, theres a net loss of 40,000 people in Victoria but still prices are going up.

So once again, this current trend isn’t being driven by population growth.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 8:39am

A little off topic but was talking about it in this thread the other day, on the building material increases, mostly framing pine and LVL & i beams etc

Im doing some major building work soon so was just talking to the guy where i get my timber from talking about prices increases etc, he said another big reason for price rise is we actually get a lot of framing pine from NZ but apparently USA has hit up NZ and said they will pay 40% more than what we will pay. (as USA has timber shortage)

Current price(before discount) he quoted was about $5.00 a lineal metre, last time i did a build was 5 years ago it was $2.95, i think it was about $3.50 before Covid.

Obviously only a very tiny factor in house price increases, but all related.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 8:44am

90 x 35 should still come in around $3.75 per m

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 9:25am

Yeah not sure of 90 x 35 price, this is 90 x 45 MG 10 (no treatment) as what my plans will specify for bottom/top plates and studs, these guys prices are the cheapest in my area too unless getting elsewhere at a special builder price ( i will get a 5% discount on that price though) just had a look online Bunnings price for 90 x 45 is now $5.29 per LM

I expect prices probably vary from state to state a little though.

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soggydog Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 9:31am

From what I’ve been told by our suppliers Indo is expect timber to go up about 60% in the next 6 months. Don’t expect LVL’s or any sort of engineered timber to be in stock. And also we are already finding it hard to secure cladding and James Hardie accessories (Ali corners stops). I have been using multiple timbers suppliers to get what we need. Good luck.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 2:40pm

There is no doubt immigration levels impact house prices in Australia .

Before Covid there were 300k p/a people moving into Melb . Many were wonderful people moving to Australia ( many from India ) . Families with the wife being a nurse and the husband working also in the health industry as a cook , cleaner , driver etc . This was a major driver of new developments , associated infrastructure and house prices .

Australia has become the best country imo due to immigration .

However , it now has to be managed much more effectively .

What is our countries optimal population ? My guess is close to 40m . The cities are nearly full . There is plenty of space in the rural areas .

We desperately need engineers , doctors , nurses etc .

Our immigration needs to be selective on what Australia needs . We don't need to expand our different cultures . We are already multicultural enough . We can and do , at much higher % rates than other countries , bring in new people on humanitarian grounds . This should continue .

New immigrants will be ok with being told they have to work in rural areas for say 10 years . After this time they will have friends and a lifestyle that will probably make them stay there . If not they can move .
No one comes in uninvited and without strings attached . No one comes in a stays on welfare .

Just a few initial thoughts .

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velocityjohnno Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 3:55pm

re: timber, hearing of metal frame replacing in quite a few instances - and just heard metal framing might become harder to get as well

Dunno if any of you are following the world right now, all the ships held up at ports, China telling their energy co's to absorb price increases but not pass it on (and whole cities and industries going dark), also them telling their energy logistics firms to secure winter fuel at any price; UK 25% of service stations ran out of petrol as not enough drivers; EU natural gas prices topping 100EU a KWh when was 15 last year and them also lessening industrial production, people saying to get Xmas shopping done yesterday, bare shelves in the US, food pricing up, oil prices rising (industry idled down investment due to covid, big bounce in demand now); shipping rates through the roof; semiconductor shortage drastically cutting new car production with roll-on effect of high used car pricing; yes as well timber running out...

It all seems to be downstream of supply chain shocks

Edit: EU gas is Russia wanting fixed price contracts I think, not a floating one, so gas flowing into EU dropped drastically

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 3:56pm

A lot of people in NHemi are going to freeze this winter, it's really sad. Winter also ramping up early and cold in places there too.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 4:52pm

You are right johnno . This is part of a post I just put up on the oil slick thread .

"The world still needs oil and gas . Look at the energy problems now being faced in China and Europe . I think you will hear a lot more about them very soon . Thermal coal is at world record prices because of this ."

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 5:39pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

re: timber, hearing of metal frame replacing in quite a few instances - and just heard metal framing might become harder to get as well

Dunno if any of you are following the world right now, all the ships held up at ports, China telling their energy co's to absorb price increases but not pass it on (and whole cities and industries going dark), also them telling their energy logistics firms to secure winter fuel at any price; UK 25% of service stations ran out of petrol as not enough drivers; EU natural gas prices topping 100EU a KWh when was 15 last year and them also lessening industrial production, people saying to get Xmas shopping done yesterday, bare shelves in the US, food pricing up, oil prices rising (industry idled down investment due to covid, big bounce in demand now); shipping rates through the roof; semiconductor shortage drastically cutting new car production with roll-on effect of high used car pricing; yes as well timber running out...

It all seems to be downstream of supply chain shocks

Edit: EU gas is Russia wanting fixed price contracts I think, not a floating one, so gas flowing into EU dropped drastically

sounds like hyperinflation is here!!! We all know what that means don’t we!!

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 8:08pm

A whole city block for 700oz of silver? (Jokes: that was Weimar)

btw Don, well done on your prognostication of late, I reckon you might have picked the timing.

nomad1's picture
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nomad1 Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 9:58pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

A lot of people in NHemi are going to freeze this winter, it's really sad. Winter also ramping up early and cold in places there too.

Is it that cold generally? up here in Scandi land its not any colder than previous years.

Distracted's picture
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Distracted Monday, 4 Oct 2021 at 10:12pm

@VJ, was talking to a builder recently and there is already delays and price hikes for metal framing in NSW due to shortages of timber. Not sure of the times or cost differences. Concrete slabs are also being delayed due to lack of steel.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 9:26am

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-06/apra-tightens-home-loan-rules/100...

That was quick. Can't see it having a huge impact though.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 9:39am

Some interesting numbers I heard this morning .

OZ Wholesale gas prices FELL 47% in August . Still higher than last year .

Electricity prices fell 28% and are 24% higher than last year .

The prices have to rise from current levels for the producers to make money .

In Europe prices are going ballistic . Renewable production is down and old base load generators were mothballed .

BB - my sources are business related ( extremely reliable and I am sure would be publicly available ) and I will keep private . As usual I don't care what you think .

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 9:54am

Hutchy posts so much dribble on so many threads I can't work out if he's a bot or a bludger?

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 10:04am

carpetbrain - There must be so much you can't work out ! Don't worry as you are not on you pat malone on this site .

" I can't work out if he's a bot or a bludger?" Not right on either guess .

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carpetman Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 10:08am

Back so soon? Must be a bludger. Carry on.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 10:17am

The figures I posted were work related as I said .

You are right though , I am spending too much time enjoying myself pointing out the foolish views held by many on SN .

You might think the figures were dribble . I use them to make investment decisions and I hope some others on this site can make use of them to .

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carpetman Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 10:49am

If that's how you get enjoyment, Hutchy, you need to get out more.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Wednesday, 6 Oct 2021 at 12:10pm

Would love to get out more carpet . Desperate for a surf . When Dan the man stops keeping us caged it will happen .

In the mean time you can read my dribble ( if you want ) and I will enjoy myself reading all the crazy comments on this site and responding .

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 2:50pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

A whole city block for 700oz of silver? (Jokes: that was Weimar)

btw Don, well done on your prognostication of late, I reckon you might have picked the timing.

This is a brilliant read.

https://medium.com/concoda/were-about-to-witness-the-biggest-round-of-ba...

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 3:15pm

Great read Don, thanks for sharing.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 3:16pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

You are right though , I am spending too much time enjoying myself pointing out the foolish views held by many on SN .
.

This, coming from a bloke who wants to dam the Mitchell River (an idea so profoundly stupid not even the local National Party MPs are supporting it) is a bit rich.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 4:32pm

Vic- just posted on climate change thread . Looking forward to you pointing out how stupid I am .

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 4:53pm

Hutchy, what the hell did you do in your life before discovering swellnet?

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 5:16pm

Fitzroy . Before covid I surfed , swam , played golf and did a lot of walking my wonderful dog . She passed away about 2 years ago which coincided with my hobbies ( that were stress relievers ) stopping .

Before SN I had no outlet to discuss my views . I agree that I am over doing it and very much hope to soon get bored with the discussions . I am sure you and others feel the same way . Sorry !

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 5:21pm

That was a very good article of monetary clown world Don. I thought it was all gone in 2008, but that just shows I was naive. Then I enjoyed all the acronyms like PIIGS in 2010-11 and watched as terrible quality sovereign bonds got backstopped. I almost expect nothing less now... Ctrl_p

Edit:"It doesn’t matter that the financial alchemy they concoct to achieve this destroys the concept of price discovery, the sanctity of money, and the purchasing power of citizens." There's quite a few devastating quotes in the article. Internet as relief-valve.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 5:24pm

OK pop quiz: pretend you are 25 year old Australian. You're earning alright. Do you YOLO buy into this RE beast, no matter the cost?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 5:32pm
blindboy's picture
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blindboy Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 5:34pm

I doubt many 25 year olds can even afford it unless the Bank of Mumanddad is involved.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 5:46pm

Dare to dream. Are they doing 105% LVRs?