House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 7:57am

An opinion and some facts .

■ The RBA ended its 0.1% target for the 3-year bond, but remains ultra-accommodative with the real cash rate -2.0% and QE programs of $498bn set to rise another $60bn, 2x the Federal Budget deficits over the same period! Governor Lowe rejected rate rises for 2022- the Dec-22 bill future at 1.3% is way too hawkish. However, on our view that the 1st rate rise is early-23 and then rates rise to neutral of ~2% over the following 18-months, the 3-year at 0.95% is nearing fair-value!
■ AUS’ V-reopening evidence continues to build: home prices in Oct-21 rose 1.5%MoM and 21.6%YoY- Lowe rejected using rates to cool housing- whilst non-rural commodity prices rose 3.6%MoM and 41.8%YoY. Europe’s manufacturing PMI remained resilient at 58.3.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 8:12am

so much for Covid destroying the economy

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groundswell Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 8:29am

Thanks Blindboy and if you ever see Adam who runs the boutique store in Ulladulla and surfs those gnarly reefs insanely well (natural footer) forget his last name say gday to him from Matty v if you could. I reckon he opened that store to pull honeys when he was younger and more handsome haha.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 8:30am
thermalben wrote:

After years of stalling, Kings Forest is about to kick off construction soon (the Concept Plan was first lodged in 2007).

It'll have 4,500 new homes adjacent to Casuarina, with 11,000 new residents (2016 census had 35 residents).

https://www.kingsforestliving.com.au/project.html

If you thought it was hard to get a parking spot at cabarita now , the future looks crazy . They might want to upgrade the road from chinderah to blackrock too .

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udo Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 8:34am

Blocks from 240 sqm

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thermalben Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 9:09am
Supafreak wrote:

If you thought it was hard to get a parking spot at cabarita now , the future looks crazy . They might want to upgrade the road from chinderah to blackrock too .

Major upgrades being planned right now. The carpark has been a headache for a long time.

https://www.yoursaytweed.com.au/norries-head

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dawnperiscope Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 9:17am

They could dredge a few more "waterfront" homes and make a wavepool

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Supafreak Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 9:40am

@malben , cheers for that link

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udo Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 2:38pm
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Roystein Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 3:36pm

pissing contest...

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Distracted Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 3:45pm

I clicked on the first page of this thread by accident and it’s funny how comments haven’t really changed…. Houses are over priced, there will be a housing correction shortly etc

Five years ago though some of those coastal properties would have been half the cost they are now….. but we’re now closer to housing price correction… or are we?!

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gragagan Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 6:11pm
seeds wrote:

Over 70,000 trees will be planted for the preservation of the local koala population at Kings Forest. ​

I assume that means koala habitat is being flattened for the development. What’s the habitat like there?

Block sizes starting at 240sqm oh my. These modern developments are ghastly eyesores.

Habitat has been cleared years ago, old farm land? Sandy, overgrown with grass and weeds, gets mowed occasionally. Coastal swamp areas in there too.
Used to live in Kingy before there was any development along that stretch down to Cabba, where all the houses and hotels and stuff is now was a sandy 4wd track through the coastal scrub. You'd walk through the sand mine (still operating) to surf south beach.

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tubeshooter Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 6:43pm

Yep gragagan .. Lived at Cabba before Casuarina and Salt were developed . I miss the old village atmosphere.. Carpark was still always crowded but I only lived 2 streets back so it wasn't worth starting the car for anyway, unless it was to just do a drive by to check it. And yeah , used to be some pretty cool beach tracks for the 4wd back then , and a regular crew of surfers and fishos who used them regularly ,,hard to imagine it now.

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seeds Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 6:49pm

That’s good to know Gragagan. 70000 extra trees is good. The estate will be terrible with small blocks like that. Hopefully most blocks are bigger. But I’m no fan of these estates from all the horrible developments here on the Sunshine Coast.
I remember that stretch before Casuarina and Salt. Great place to dos in the old Hilux and wake up to the sunrise

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gragagan Wednesday, 3 Nov 2021 at 6:58pm

Yeah it was crazy how quick it all went up. Always seemed to be more crowded out in the water then too. Healthy local crew, lots of groms, I was at school and every arvo was busy. Cant remember any agro either, it was pretty laid back.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 8:22am

Some extreme numbers out of the US .

US ISM Services in Oct-21 rose to a record 66.7, an extreme 2.9 standard deviations above average! Activity and New Orders were records, Supplier Deliveries the 2nd highest on record. ADP Private Employment in Oct-21 rose a booming 571k. The US economy is reaccelerating from its 3Q21 delta moderation. The Fed began its gradual tapering- slowing bond purchases by US$15bn per month until mid-22- but is in denial, seeing elevated inflation as mostly transitory.

I won't often include this information . It is related to recent comments at the moment .

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flollo Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 3:08pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Some extreme numbers out of the US .

US ISM Services in Oct-21 rose to a record 66.7, an extreme 2.9 standard deviations above average! Activity and New Orders were records, Supplier Deliveries the 2nd highest on record. ADP Private Employment in Oct-21 rose a booming 571k. The US economy is reaccelerating from its 3Q21 delta moderation. The Fed began its gradual tapering- slowing bond purchases by US$15bn per month until mid-22- but is in denial, seeing elevated inflation as mostly transitory.

I won't often include this information . It is related to recent comments at the moment .

So dangerous calling inflation transitory, attributing it purely to supply chain issues and leaving it at that. I mean, I hope that is the case, to be honest, I would rather choose that than the system meltdown. In the meantime, anyone that has any investing capabilities is loading it into real estate and crypto.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 4 Nov 2021 at 5:01pm

You are right flollo !

Real estate has performed during mild inflation . Underperformed during the 80's . Depends on how high inflation goes and then interest rates that the Bankers will use to tame it .

I would be a seller of real estate rather than a buyer at the moment but this is not advice .

Hard assets are mostly the best hedge against inflation as you know . Commodities .

No idea how crypto and other digital currencies will fare . Inflation has not been around during their life cycle . Uncharted waters .

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Monday, 8 Nov 2021 at 11:49am

Aaand another one.
"The mystery backers of a divisive multi-million dollar beachside development have shocked locals. Untouched beaches and native wildlife are why Hawks Nest residents love their home. All of that could change if the Obeid family get their way."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/hawks-nest-obeid-four-corners/100...

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Monday, 8 Nov 2021 at 11:50am

Yep, coming soon to a sleepy coastal town near you.

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Supafreak Monday, 8 Nov 2021 at 3:08pm

House price growth three times faster than wages over four decades https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/house-price-growth-three-times-faste...

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gsco Monday, 8 Nov 2021 at 4:38pm

I find these graphs (from https://www.longtermtrends.net/) of the current unprecedented state of the US property market and level of government debt quite interesting, and alarming!

Real house prices and house prices relative to income are at unprecedented highs:

(These graphs are for the US contrary to what the "larger" headings say.)

Government debt relative to GDP is at an unprecedented high:

(I can't seem to find the equivalent graphs for Aus.)

The question is can things go on like this for ever, and if not then for how much longer and what will the adjustment be like...?

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bonza Monday, 8 Nov 2021 at 9:34pm
Sprout wrote:

Aaand another one.
"The mystery backers of a divisive multi-million dollar beachside development have shocked locals. Untouched beaches and native wildlife are why Hawks Nest residents love their home. All of that could change if the Obeid family get their way."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/hawks-nest-obeid-four-corners/100...

Wow. Watched the four corners on this. Disgusted re Obeid. Wasn’t it nice to see former deputy premier national Andrew stoner with his surfboard in arm claiming that the recent land clearing of the coastal patch in his backyard has led to a “desert” and “paradise lost”. Leading the good fight Andrew. Thank fuck for your public service.

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/archived/bushtelegraph/nsw...

https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/right-wing-extremists-labor-attacks-...

https://amp.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/nsw-farmers-accelerate...

https://theconversation.com/amp/the-nsw-koala-wars-showed-one-thing-the-...

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bonza Monday, 8 Nov 2021 at 10:04pm

“The NSW Nationals have vehemently opposed Labor's land clearning laws.
Last year Mr Stoner controversially announced the government would seek to overhaul the laws, which he labelled "fragmented, rigid and overly complex".

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Robwilliams Tuesday, 9 Nov 2021 at 12:55pm

In regards to the four corners program. The community of of Hawkes Nest has been sold a steal. Any one with half an idea can see the negative impacts out weigh the positives in this case. What a sham and crooked set of ideals those that approve these deals have. Totally out of touch with the soul and the people of the area. Just another steal with a big deal for a few. Fight back Hawkes nest. Once it's gone it's gone.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 1:18pm

Don’t panic…I’ve been told that interest rates aren’t going to rise until 2026.

Oh, wait….

“Property shock as fixed rate mortgages skyrocket
By Houses and Holes

You can thank the RBA for this little snafu:

National Australia Bank has jacked up its fixed home loan rates for the second time in two weeks as lenders look to entice borrowers to variable offerings as wholesale funding costs march higher.

Australia’s second-largest lender on Thursday hiked its fixed home loan rates by up to 0.51 per cent, according to RateCity. It follows similar moves by peers Westpac and CBA earlier this month.

NAB increased its three-year fixed term rate by as much as 51 basis points, bringing it to 2.79 per cent.

The property price boom was driven in some significant measure by these rates:

Damien Roylance, mortgage broker and MD at Entourage Finance, told Australian Broker that he had been seeing 9 out of 10 customers choose a fixed rate in recent weeks.

“We’re having the conversation with every single customer at the moment,” he told Australian Broker. “The rates are just too attractive.”

“Owner occupier rates starting with a 1 in front is something that we’ve never seen before, and most people don’t think that a variable rate can go below what’s on offer.”

House prices are going to slow fast on this. The equivalent of four rate hikes in a month is pretty extraordinary stuff.

The RBA has allowed a market inflation panic to overwhelm its forward guidance for Australians that rates would be anchored until 2024.

They have every right to be angry at it.“

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blindboy Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 1:35pm

Hold onto your hats......US inflation.

Screen-Shot-2021-11-11-at-1-33-46-pm
insta image download hd

flollo's picture
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flollo Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 3:11pm

It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure...

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Max Wax Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 4:40pm
udo's picture
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udo Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 5:30pm
sypkan's picture
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sypkan Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 6:50pm

"It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure..."

quite a 'curve'...

any predictions how it'll effect little old oz?

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 6:55pm

Well, if it's like 1970s inflation, there's the possibility Disco will return as well, and you should be worried about that.

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Roker Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 6:58pm

Abba is back. Coincidence?

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 7:03pm

Maybe the inflation summoned them.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 7:15pm
sypkan wrote:

"It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure..."

quite a 'curve'...

any predictions how it'll effect little old oz?

No change.

Modest interest rate rise in Q3 2023 and into 2024.
But still below historical norms.

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donweather Thursday, 11 Nov 2021 at 11:40pm
freeride76 wrote:
sypkan wrote:

"It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure..."

quite a 'curve'...

any predictions how it'll effect little old oz?

No change.

Modest interest rate rise in Q3 2023 and into 2024.
But still below historical norms.

Might be below historical norms Steve but the mortgage values certainly are NOT!!!

And this is where the arse end of the housing market is about to fall hard!!

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blindboy Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 8:37am

And probably not limited to the housing market. Highly leveraged investors in over-valued assets were the cause of the 2008 shambles. Who knows what house of cards is hiding in the US financial system? China has moved early to attempt a clean up of some of its problems......for the rest we just have to hope!

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gsco Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 9:00am
blindboy wrote:

And probably not limited to the housing market.

The Buffett Indicator gives a decent view on where equity valuations are at:

Wilshire 5000 relative to US GDP:

US public & private equity relative to US GDP:

So relative to the size of the US economy, US equities are at an at least 70yr high.

Also relevant is the (inverse of) the S&P500 dividend yield:

Apart from the tech bubble, S&P500 dividend yield is at an at least 150yr low (note again the chart is 1/div_yield, and on a log scale).

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 11:31am

House price growth to continue into 2023, albeit at a slightly lower rate.

Fuelled by record low interest rates, economic recovery, and strong demand.

Maybe a levelling off in 2024 when interest rate rises start to bite.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 12:32pm

$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)

no freehold, just the cabin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-p...

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Craig Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 1:54pm

WTF!

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donweather Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 7:23pm
freeride76 wrote:

House price growth to continue into 2023, albeit at a slightly lower rate.

Fuelled by record low interest rates, economic recovery, and strong demand.

Maybe a levelling off in 2024 when interest rate rises start to bite.

Unfortunately I have to agree to disagree on this one Steve.

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donweather Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 7:28pm
freeride76 wrote:

$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)

no freehold, just the cabin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-p...

Saw this earlier today. And this is exactly why the arse end is about to fall out of the market.

Here’s another reason. Company made a billion dollar loss so far this year. Went to IPO and is currently valued now over $100b!!!

Absurd insanity and clearly everyone is trying to find the next Tesla stock!!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-11/the-biz-rivian-electric-car-debut...

Just type that number out with all the correct zeros. Valued at $100,000,000,000!! And made a $1,000,000,000 so far and only sold 150 cars!!

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andy-mac Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 8:20pm
freeride76 wrote:

$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)

no freehold, just the cabin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-p...

Nutz....

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bonza Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 8:26pm

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/conceivable-property-prices-cou...

“Even a rise in interest rates I 2022 won’t be enough to see house prices fall… necessary”

Necessary equating to unless policy on tax incentive policy is changed. Which neither party will touch.

So nope. No crash in Australian house prices. Just a slow in growth.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 6:50pm

iirc interest rates began rising in 2004, up into 2007 ( I remember RBA raising just before election). What I saw where I was, was that discretionary spending collapsed (not nice for businesses dependent on it) as people switched this toward increased mortgage costs. House prices rose for the next 3 years into this increasing rate environment as this went on.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 6:51pm
freeride76 wrote:

$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)

no freehold, just the cabin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-p...

I may have stayed in that cabin once. Talk about Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous!

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donweather Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 2:37pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

iirc interest rates began rising in 2004, up into 2007 ( I remember RBA raising just before election). What I saw where I was, was that discretionary spending collapsed (not nice for businesses dependent on it) as people switched this toward increased mortgage costs. House prices rose for the next 3 years into this increasing rate environment as this went on.

The difference between now and back then is the $value of the average mortgage now compared with income levels. This multiple is one of the highest in the developed world. That can only mean one thing once interest rates start to rise. A sell off in the property market.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 5:50pm

We can only hope, for our young ones.