House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 8:26am

The trend I'm seeing up here on the Tweed is a mix of families relocating away from Syd/Melb (as I did over six years ago), but also an increasing number of people buying houses to relocate to in 5/10/15 years time, when they'll be able to retire (perhaps their existing work doesn't allow them to work remotely). And so in the short term, they're renting the property out via AirB&B - but the long term strategy is to eventually relocate.

Therefore, as long as there's demand for short term holiday accomodation, they should be able to cover the mortgage until such time that they decide to move. And if shit hits the fan again, then they can fast track the plan and move up sooner.

That's just my anecdotal snapshot, anyway. Not sure if it applies to other regions.

And of course, this could all change in a heartbeat. Remote working has certainly allowed a much greater number of people the ability to live/work in regional areas over the last 5-10 years, and Covid-19 accelerated these kinds of decisions. But two years ago, Covid-19 wasn't remotely on the radar.

What other unknown factors are coming down the pipeline to throw a spanner in the works?

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etarip Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 8:34am

Yeah, that’s a good perspective. The shift of people moving to the NR / Tweed / GC has been incredible.
What’s surprised me is that there hasn’t been a corresponding drop or even leveling of house prices in the places that they’re leaving from. I guess your observation explains that in part.

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donweather Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 9:35am

And here in lies the mentality of the majority of Australians buying houses in the current market. They all believe they will continue to go up!!

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blindboy Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 10:20am

History suggests they are right. What's the average doubling time of the Sydney market theses days? It used to be 7 years. I think prices might fluctuate a bit and there is the possibility of a correction in some areas, but the trend line is likely to remain positive over any period longer than a year or so.

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thermalben Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 12:06pm
donweather wrote:

And here in lies the mentality of the majority of Australians buying houses in the current market. They all believe they will continue to go up!!

I reckon it's more FOMO, rather than trying to secure a good return on investment. Current buyers are scared the market will go up even further, and so they're getting in now before they're forever priced out.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 4:33pm

Heard years ago that it's 7%pa dated back to the Domesday book. take that one as an internet fact tho.

However

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2001/2001-07/1890s-depression.html

https://www.hbs.edu/businesshistory/Documents/BHR870302.pdf

http://floridahistory.org/landboom.htm

It does go down and quite a lot for a long time, at times; just not in the lifetimes of anyone alive on these forums. Which proves the value of written history...

I can remember Gero in the early 90's, every 2nd house on each street for sale. Dad also mentioned similar seeing this in the UK postwar.

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blindboy Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 5:00pm

This has some interesting graphs. Check put the inflation adjusted one.
https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/australian-house-prices-over-the-l...

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 5:24pm

Incredible. Of note is the jump in cost of servicing a Perth mortgage in 2004-6, it takes off like a rocket, explaining the decimation of discretionary income businesses I witnessed at the time.

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 20 Nov 2021 at 5:31pm

"Although house prices in all cities are at or near historical highs, interest rates are at all time lows. For Sydney, peak mortgage pain came in 1990 when average home loan rates peaked at about 17% and you were paying $4400 / month in 2020 dollars towards your mortgage."

Peak mortgage pain was there for one data point only, then reverted quickly to the mean of the uptrend, which was much lower. The uptrending mean of the chart - ie, the pain - is now approaching that level, which suggests it's there every data point, not a one off. Ouch.

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donweather Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 8:51am
blindboy wrote:

This has some interesting graphs. Check put the inflation adjusted one.
https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/australian-house-prices-over-the-l...

Good article. Thanks for sharing. Of note:

If house prices continue to grow, or interest rates go up again, mortgage payments are likely to become unsustainable, particularly in Sydney.

Won’t take much to tip the scales and if it’s Syd people who are also buying up holiday homes along the coast what do you think they’ll sell first when the mortgage strain/pain starts to occur!!

I also note that article is a year old now so would be great to see the charts including 2021 noting property prices have increased some 20% +

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AndyM Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:11am

Don I can imagine a plateauing of prices but I can’t envisage any serious reduction, if at all.
Don’t get me wrong I would love to see it.
By my estimations prices in the lower end of the market in Lismore have gone up by about 50% in the last 6 to 12 months.

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GuySmiley Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:31am

A couple of examples of prices falling -

Prices did fall in the late 80s in AU but the graphs of average prices do not tell the full story. The top end in the better suburbs of Melbourne dropped close to 30%.

Old work colleague from the UK who ran his own legal practice lost the lot during the Thatcher/Major recession because his wealth was in high end properties which he was forced to sell at rock bottom prices to clear his debt. He said time and time again if he had small workers cottages he could have sold them many times over at a reasonable price but no-one wanted his high end properties so the price plummeted.

All Im saying is if prices do fall here there will be segments of the market where the falls will greater than average.

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Blowin Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 12:26pm
AndyM wrote:

Don I can imagine a plateauing of prices but I can’t envisage any serious reduction, if at all.
Don’t get me wrong I would love to see it.
By my estimations prices in the lower end of the market in Lismore have gone up by about 50% in the last 6 to 12 months.

No one caught up in a Ponzi scheme can ever visualise it ending. They don’t actually realise they are in a Ponzi scheme until hindsight kicks them in the goolies.

Australian housing is no different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

There were years in WA when I was working with more Irish Economic refugees than I was with Australians. Most of them hated the desert and the sun but their entire country fell to pieces when their housing Ponzi crashed and they were forced to chase money halfway around the globe. But …..Australian exceptionalism!

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AndyM Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 12:37pm

I’m aware of what’s going on but unfortunately I still think there’s a fair bit of room for prices to keep going up and importantly the government will do anything in its power to prop things up.
Things won’t continue at the current rate but prices rises could continue for the foreseeable future.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 7:15pm

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau,”

- Yale Economist Irving Fisher, October 1929.

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 7:23pm

Another little history bit that will spin you out, in that Florida land boom link I posted above, it was a hurricane that provided the final blow, astoundingly creating a tsunami wave in a lake (!) miles inland (!) drowning many people in one of the speculative areas (!)

"As if the land collapse was not bad enough, a terrible hurricane hit South Florida in September of 1928 with winds in excess of 125 miles per hour. Traveling parallel to the Atlantic Ocean, the storm suddenly turned west across Palm Beach County into the heartland of the muck lands.
The migrant workers and small farmers of Lake Okeechobee were asleep. Few had radios. They had no automobiles for a quick escape. As the winds of the hurricane moved counterclockwise across the lake, the south end of the lake was dried up. When the storm passed by, however, a huge tidal wave crashed down of the people of Belle Glade and Moore Haven.

The hurricane was an unwelcome coup de grace to the Florida Land Bust. Over 13,000 homes were destroyed. 115 were dead in Miami and the tidal wave had drowned 300 people. The news of people drowning in a wave, thirty miles from the Atlantic Ocean amazed people across the world. The nameless migrants were piled up and burnt to prevent plague. The major developments were in ruins, many of them unable to recover."

I've got a molasses wave that lays waste to a town and drowns many people somewhere in the archive too, truth is way stranger than fiction...

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 10:44am

Perhaps the banks have been reading this thread?

https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/australian-house-prices-tipped-...

If banks are forecasting a housing price drop of 10-12% then you can expect reality to be way more than this as banks are never going to paint a full blown bearish view as they need mugs to continue to buy new houses with big mortgages.

Interesting comment in here about RBA predicted to increase rates from 0.1 to 1.25. You can bet your left testicle that if this happens the big four banks will increase their rates considerably more than 1.15% as they will look to recover their margins for shareholders noting new mortgage amounts will taper off correspondingly with rate rises also.

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freeride76 Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 11:34am

Umm....Banks also have an extremely strong interest in a: avoiding foreclosures and b: maintaining a growing mortgage book.

They lose far more than they gain if mortgage growth slows.

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channel-bottom Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 11:47am
donweather wrote:

Perhaps the banks have been reading this thread?

https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/australian-house-prices-tipped-...

If banks are forecasting a housing price drop of 10-12% then you can expect reality to be way more than this as banks are never going to paint a full blown bearish view as they need mugs to continue to buy new houses with big mortgages.

Interesting comment in here about RBA predicted to increase rates from 0.1 to 1.25. You can bet your left testicle that if this happens the big four banks will increase their rates considerably more than 1.15% as they will look to recover their margins for shareholders noting new mortgage amounts will taper off correspondingly with rate rises also.

The thing that no-one seems to consider when predicting house price drops is the level of demand that is available just outside the current market.

With the caveats that as long as people have jobs, and interest rates don't increase by 3% or 4%; if the housing market dropped by 10% or 15%, a whole segment of home buyers that have been locked out by price rises will rush back in to buy. This effect would likely limit the potential decrease amount.

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freeride76 Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 11:49am

Plus the effect of a massive increase in immigration.

I can't see any dampening of demand, not now or into the near future.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 12:01pm

Friends bought a house just over 12 months months ago for 1.5 million. Just sold for 5 million.
In Miami on the GC. He did some digging and found there is unlimited heights...so he got the 3 neighbors to sell as a group. Mr developer say we will double whatever you can get on the open market as a single dwelling.

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seeds Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 12:05pm

Geez!
What do you blokes and ladies that live on the Goldie think about it these days? Lifestyle, traffic, parking at beach, crowds on the beach let alone in the water etc.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 12:38pm
seeds wrote:

Geez!
What do you blokes and ladies that live on the Goldie think about it these days? Lifestyle, traffic, parking at beach, crowds on the beach let alone in the water etc.

Live in tweed, try not to go past tugun, traffic is a pain in the butt

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Roadkill Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 1:31pm
seeds wrote:

Geez!
What do you blokes and ladies that live on the Goldie think about it these days? Lifestyle, traffic, parking at beach, crowds on the beach let alone in the water etc.

Fantastic place. I wouldn't want to live anywhere else. I certainly wouldn't want to be needing to buy a house. Council and their tram does not help with traffic..parking is shitty and getting worse.

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flollo Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 1:35pm

What about this development in Byron? It caught my attention due to the following comment:

'This application was refused in 2019 and 2717 submissions against the project were received in its first two exhibitions.'

I mean, how bad is it that it received this many submissions against the project? I'm not from the area so not familiar with the project but I'm curious if anyone's got any stories about it?

https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/tower-holdings-releases-byron...

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Spatchcock Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 1:37pm
thermalben wrote:

What other unknown factors are coming down the pipeline to throw a spanner in the works?

Hmmmm???? Climate change anyone?

https://longpaddock.qld.gov.au/qld-future-climate/adapting/heatwaves/
https://longpaddock.qld.gov.au/qld-future-climate/adapting/impacts/

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sypkan Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 1:50pm

"Friends bought a house just over 12 months months ago for 1.5 million. Just sold for 5 million.
In Miami on the GC. He did some digging and found there is unlimited heights...so he got the 3 neighbors to sell as a group. Mr developer say we will double whatever you can get on the open market as a single dwelling."

if this sort of madness is fuelled by cashed up early retirees, or cashed up city dudes moving... then fair enough...

but if it is fuelled by 12 years of printing money, and probably one of the biggest shifts of wealth to the top ever...

where are the strong voices saying enough is enough?

yeh, the last year or two a few have started to voice up, but generally, the people who have power and influence are so entrenched in this madness, they've got nothing more than subtle innuendo and a raised eyebrow to add to the conversation... (looking at you alan kohler)

it's time some of these money men fired up

same with labor and 'the left' generally

they're all so bought and caught up in it all none of them have any fire in the belly

if they don't... the fire in the belly will come eventually... but it won't be from this bought class of so called leftys...

and it won't be pretty

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 2:03pm

"where are the strong voices saying enough is enough?"

In the bond market: "Help us Mr Bond Vigilante, you are our only hope."

Edit: time for gentle reminder that central banks are chapter 5 in 'The Communist Manifesto' - and it's CB's who have artificially pressed IRs down to 5000 year lows. If we actually had a free market, and real price discovery, IRs would be a lot higher. Much higher.

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seeds Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 2:02pm
Roadkill wrote:
seeds wrote:

Geez!
What do you blokes and ladies that live on the Goldie think about it these days? Lifestyle, traffic, parking at beach, crowds on the beach let alone in the water etc.

Fantastic place. I wouldn't want to live anywhere else. I certainly wouldn't want to be needing to buy a house. Council and their tram does not help with traffic..parking is shitty and getting worse.

The Sunny Coast council are wanting a tram or similar. Can’t see it working unless this kind of development gets up. And then the place will have completely lost its soul. Already has IMO
https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2021/11/23/sunshine-coast-housing-2...
I’m glad you’re loving the Goldie. It’s great to love where you live. I’m not so enthusiastic about the Sunny Coast anymore.

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 2:14pm

from article

"The forecasts are centred around expectations the Reserve Bank will raise the cash rate to 1.25 per cent by the third quarter of 2023, from its current historic low of 0.1 per cent."

Are there any savers in the midst? What say you of 1.25% in current inflation environment? I thought so.

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gragagan Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 2:17pm
Roadkill wrote:
seeds wrote:

Geez!
What do you blokes and ladies that live on the Goldie think about it these days? Lifestyle, traffic, parking at beach, crowds on the beach let alone in the water etc.

Fantastic place. I wouldn't want to live anywhere else. I certainly wouldn't want to be needing to buy a house. Council and their tram does not help with traffic..parking is shitty and getting worse.

Moved away from the goldy 3 years ago, having lived mostly around the sth end my whole life. Bit sad knowing I'll probably never be able to afford to live there again. Palmy / Currumbin isn't too bad, apart from the Alley the crowds aren't a problem. Used to surf Palmy all the time by myself. The crowds were bigger 30 years ago.
ps. I reckon if you were born somewhere then housing there should be cheaper for you, fuk getting priced out of your hometown by rich gronks from the cities

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seeds Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 2:21pm

Did you move away to purchase a house?

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gragagan Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 2:41pm

Nah not yet, moved because of my girlfriend. Had been wanting to get away for ages, keeps getting busier and busier on land, traffic etc. The plan was to give it a couple more years til the kids finish school to buy something, a block in the bush most likely.

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bonza Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 8:55am

“There are nine ministers for housing in this country.. what are they all doing?”
Alan Kohler

https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/the-housing-affordability-jigsaw%E2%80%93-if...

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spookypt Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:20am
seeds]
Roadkill wrote:
[quote=seeds
wrote:

Geez!
It’s great to love where you live. I’m not so enthusiastic about the Sunny Coast anymore.

SC now is officially ROOTED!

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surfiebum Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:55am
spookypt wrote:

SC now is officially ROOTED!

But wait - there's more...
https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2021/11/23/sunshine-coast-housing-2...

"Occasional 8 storey buildings" - translates as zoned for 8-10 storeys the entire way.

Hope there are council elections before the the planning scheme process is done

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seeds Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 12:01pm

Yep. Moved to the Noosa Hinterland 9 years back to get away from the ever increasing crowds. Don’t tend to go to the coast much on weekends unless the surf is good. It’s depressing seeing the amount of cars and people at the beach.
It’s in creeping out here now. Getting a bit too busy in town for my liking.

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seeds Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 12:08pm

On a positive note where I moved to was behind the 8 ball house price wise so got a bargain. At least doubled in value now. On a negative note can’t really move to a more quiet local with surf that I can capitalise on my gain as it’s gone nuts everywhere

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 2:28pm
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GreenJam Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 3:00pm

exactly seeds, same here - I made the move 7 years ago. Basically swapped a small townhouse with courtyard for decent sized house and acreage. Still pretty quiet and peaceful where I am, but I agree the local towns are definitely getting busier, even getting a carpark in one now is very difficult after 9am.

Values in my area have more than doubled in my 7 years, compared to a tiny increase in value for the townhouse over the 7 years I was there (got into the market at a high point). I wonder what that townhouse would be worth now? But it doesnt matter, certainly no regrets. The growing busyness/congestion of the Coolum-Noosa region wasnt for me

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seeds Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 4:02pm
surfiebum wrote:
spookypt wrote:

SC now is officially ROOTED!

But wait - there's more...
https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2021/11/23/sunshine-coast-housing-2...

"Occasional 8 storey buildings" - translates as zoned for 8-10 storeys the entire way.

Hope there are council elections before the the planning scheme process is done

It’s not good the picture in my head of that stretch in 20 years. It’s already way to busy and developed. I’m glad I only have to work down there not live anymore

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donweather Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 9:30pm

Sorry my bad. Link was already posted above.

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freeride76 Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 10:05pm
velocityjohnno wrote:
good read and viewing from economist Paul Ryan:

https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/if-housing-price-growth-seems-unu...

Thanks for posting VJ but that article basically said nothing.

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etarip Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:34am

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. This insight from an economist on Realestate . Com:

“Who knows what the next 140 years of the Australian housing market may hold.”

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spookypt Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 9:33am

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:53am

That's wild, places doubling in a year.

I might be drawing a long bow slotting this in here but people clearly have serious reservations about ramping up population increase again - a clear majority (58%) are for the idea of restarting migration at a lower level than before the coronavirus.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-reveal-population-conc...

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sypkan Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:02am

go back to same levels... losers... get over it... try thinking a little harder not bigger...

'Other voters' - 12% - 'Restart but at higher levels'

now who the hell could those looneys be?

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:12am

Yeah was wondering that too.

Greens with misguided empathy?

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spookypt Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:41am

Where I live, 5 mins behind Coolum beach on 3 acres places have tripled. My next door neighbours house sold
- NO driveway
- NO pool
- Single level owner builder (never finsihed) 3 bed 2 bath and open carport garage
- Hill block with no areas that can actually be mowed. AKA Lantana block.
- NO Shed
$1.35M (7 years ago was listed for $530k)
Neighbour down the road, on 10 acres (with 8 going underwater when I do a pi$$ in my yard) bought in 2019 for $1.05m (auction) and sold 6 weeks ago $3m.
Places on the Sunny Coast on acerage with 5 mins to the beack haven't doubled, theyve tripled. over a few years.
That being said, what once took 5 mins to get into town now takes 20!

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Blowin Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:30pm

+
Highrise Harry celebrates migrant meat for property grinder
By Unconventional Economist in Australian Property, Immigrationat 1:10 pm on November 25, 2021 | 0 comments
Earlier this week, the Morrison Government announced that Australia will re-open its international border to overseas students, skilled visa holders and working holiday makers, with Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews expecting that at least 200,000 migrant workers will arrive in Australia by July 2022:

“We are working on a figure of 200,000, it may well be more than that but we will be actively looking to bring as many people into Australia as soon as we possibly can” – Karen Andrews, 22 November 2021.

Multi-billionaire apartment developer, ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff, is in full celebration mode as he looks to flog 11,000 units to “Chinese and Indians and other Asians”:

The property tycoon is building thousands of units across Sydney’s suburbs and has just commenced construction of a further 630 luxury apartments on Queensland’s Gold Coast.

“We still have 11,000 units to commence… The majority of our buyers are Chinese and Indians and other Asians”…

“So, the market immediately improved (with the government’s announcement). These buyers will live in the big cities which have suffered the most from the Covid virus”…

“We need more and more young workers to come,” Mr Triguboff added…

Mr Triguboff’s Meriton Apartments are now building “a lot more units because the NSW Planning Department realises at last that without development there is no progress.

“Our interest rates are low and if we continue to grow quickly, we will build even more.”

That dear readers is Australia’s property Narco state in action. The government floods the nation with hundreds of thousands of warm bodies every year so rentiers like Highrise Harry can get even richer. Meanwhile, ordinary residents have their living standards eroded as they are forced to live in increasingly crowded cities and smaller and more expensive housing:

Sydney dwelling composition

Seriously, what is the point of building all of these apartments if they will simply be ‘filled-up’ with migrants? How does this benefit existing Australian residents? The short answer is that it doesn’t.

Mass immigration led development is the ultimate Ponzi scheme, with property industry parasites like Highrise Harry privatising the gains while the costs are socialised on the existing population through having to fund the increased infrastructure needs (water, power, transport, recreation facilities etc), paying higher housing costs, as well as suffering the downsides of increasing congestion. None of this registers with Highrise Harry at all, nor that lower apartment rents are improving people’s cost of living.

A return to the broken economic model of the last cycle is precisely NOT what Australia needs. It drove property prices and rents higher marginalising youth. It corrupted our university standards and introduced deeply undemocratic CCP influences on campus. It corrupted our politics and jeopardised ANZUS. It drove down wages as poor foreign students and temporary migrants poured in. It lowered living standards across cities while enriching only a very narrow set of billionaires like Highrise Harry.

Australia needs instead is to leave those migrants at home where they can develop their own economies and export our expertise to them there.

The housing industry should meet the needs of Australians. Not the other way round.