Drug aware Margs'
Heaps of swell.... Maybe even a west swell thrown in....
Hope they run plenty of heats at the box. Margs is boring to watch.
eel wrote:Hope they run plenty of heats at the box. Margs is boring to watch.
Well.... Looks like potential cyclone east of Madagascar..... Might link up with gnarly southern storm....
southey commented Sunday, 5 Apr 2015 at 8:00pm { bells thread }
The LWT is looking favourable for the MR pro . Early days but decent 4-6 ft swell second day of waiting period . And then perhaps a serious swell 5-6 days later . But most importantly a fair chance of a light wind regime to accompany any decent swell that comes through . The later date this year should almost guarantee land breezes and longer through the day in said above light wind period . The only thing is that potential bigger swell looks fairly SSW in direction and mid range periods , but a secondary swell back to back off the first may come through in time late in the waiting period with more west to it , and longer period .
Yep Thursday 16th looking pretty sizey
Southey, after initial sw swell, I think a grunty sw long period, maybe even wsw.... ; Map below... Note fetch at 50e 45s..... Also note td at 60e 25s...
Map below - td trying to link up with cold front associated with same antarctic low;
all the maps I've looked at SD have that TC staying put until late in the waiting period .
yes GS , first swell perhaps 6ft + SW , residual sw for a few days , long period WSW Size ?? a few more days . My main interest is a system that will really ramp up with it hitting a node in the LWT around mon/tues 20/21 very much in the most southern swell window for SWA . W SA kind of long period swell .
Shame the Ketamine link got taken off;)
hehe
southey wrote:all the maps I've looked at SD have that TC staying put until late in the waiting period .
yes GS , first swell perhaps 6ft + SW , residual sw for a few days , long period WSW Size ?? a few more days . My main interest is a system that will really ramp up with it hitting a node in the LWT around mon/tues 20/21 very much in the most southern swell window for SWA . W SA kind of long period swell .
"all the maps I've looked at SD have that TC staying put until late in the waiting period ."... As the blind man says, we'll see..... Of interest is the break away trough from the Td around the 15th/16th on its se flank entering the southern conveyor belt..... Wundermap picks it up quite well....
southey wrote:southey commented Sunday, 5 Apr 2015 at 8:00pm { bells thread }
The LWT is looking favourable for the MR pro . Early days but decent 4-6 ft swell second day of waiting period . And then perhaps a serious swell 5-6 days later . But most importantly a fair chance of a light wind regime to accompany any decent swell that comes through . The later date this year should almost guarantee land breezes and longer through the day in said above light wind period . The only thing is that potential bigger swell looks fairly SSW in direction and mid range periods , but a secondary swell back to back off the first may come through in time late in the waiting period with more west to it , and longer period .
Margrets main break is very contestable and favours a ssw mid period luckily . Rights particulary & lefts too . Long period west swells are poor for the right & lefts are ok but inco . When does this comp start and finish anyway ?
Starts in 9 days I think....
Thur. April 16 - 26 Sunday
PS . Caml can you give everyone a run down of the specifics you think would make the ultimate conditions for the left at main break . A lot of people want to see how the pros go in conditions similar to the photo Craig shared in another thread of you - or like the photo I showed of Paul Morg's .
Hahaha ! Southey thats fucking funny . Pros at big margarets? Back in the old days yeah i guess a few of em gave it a go but since about um 1990 ? Thats near 25 yrs no pro has used a board bigger than 6"6 x wafer light and hasnt gotten a wave over 10 ft . The right closes out at about 8ft & the left doesnt seem to have been tackled big in cintest or freesurfs by pros . I stopped going to the comp tho for many of the last 20 yrs so i may have missed something . From what i remember tom carroll , curren ,simon law , poto , were the last to take it on at 12-15 ft . One year noah johnson was there about 98-99 after hed won the eddie and i saw him get a bomb onshore 15fter .freesurfing)
Big main break left needs 3.5-4.5 mtre swell any sort of sw direction . Wind can be onshore or light offshore . Sometimes south winds produced my best days . At that size you can ride wave to rivermouth or get heaving 15ft left drops . Fresh nor east winds make the left barrell but best size for tubes is 5-7ft . Sorry cant reveal the period or directions or mikehunt & co will not like that.
Okay ... Thanks I knew you wouldn't be able to share too much .... ( and thanx for not ) I asked you as I haven't surfed there bigger than 10 ft , and only been out there 4-5 times .
So I'm pretty sure I now want to dial in Hughie , by prayer , bribe or favour to deliver a NE wind , and SW swell at 4.5 M ....... The NE wind would be key to stop other spots like Nth point being a perfect / better alternative ( obviously northies would be an option but the wind wouldn't help it get its best open barrels ) . I really want to see a quality big wave delivered to the tour where they can't say no to running because there was an easier alternative . Actually any big swell accompanied by a wind with an E in it would make me happy , even Northies would be good to watch . ( however I'm pretty sure I may be beaten up by mt mates next time I'm there ) . ;-)
Alas nth is unlikely this time of year it needs fresh se wind but not the s-sw swell . Hates any wind nth of east but also tides are wrong hence you see the box during comp time mostly . I will reveal a secret of mainy left thats very unknown ; when the margaret river is flowing strong during winter-spring ( wont burst until june ) combined with leeuwin current a strong ice cold current flows south thru the break . This helps to create by far the best left this break can produce . Only those hardcore surfers who tackle the icy fresh water and the stronger the flow the more effect it has . Never ever seen by contest pros or summer/autumn warriors. P.s. The dirty river water attracts sharks haha !
The whole rivermouth bay becomes brown & surfing mainbreak is a permanent paddleathon to maintain position for take off zone . Comboed with a big swell the current increases and surfers have been sucked a few hundred metres out to the south a la desert point style .
Oh that noreast wind comboed with big swell gives u the paul morgan effect . If its huge the wind can get ya and morgs was really rattled from that wipeout . That was a big period west swell with north east going nthwest wind . Tom innes took it on good that day
Good on Tom ( he would have been fresh back in the water after the hectic pelvis fracture he had the year before at Rox ) .
And NE winds were in the Morgs photo in mid May . ( I know this as I was in traction in Hospital at the time . )
Looking at the cool air about over here , I reckon give it a week or so and SWA will see some serious cold nights and interior .
So NE wind won't be out of the question . A land breeze atleast gives the option of the wind backing off through the morning . We don't want any " cloud break " excuses again !
Good input, guys (southey and caml).... Great reading old sea dogs tips and tales about surf breaks.... Was lucky enough to have a yarn with Boof Lehman once.... Talked about the different intricacies of cricket pitches/conditions all over the world.... Similar.... But not.... lol
Cricket...!
Move on Sheepio;)
Back to 15ft Margs
Yeah... reminds me of a recent game at the mcg.... ;)
lol..... Dunno what would be worse, welly..... Facing an over from MJ, or a free fall and hold down at maxed margs...... At least no one can see you shitting yourself under water I suppose.....
hahaha
True;)
I'd take on Mitch any day of the week .... you don't need to be fit to step away from or duck under 100mph delivery . Plus you've got pads , helmet , gloves , steel cap dunlop volleys .....
Even at high fitness level , Margies starts getting intimidating at 10ft .
Its not as if your going to pegged walking out and from the middle in cricket . Another realm .
There's a spot in NT which is worse for shear length of impact zone , current etc having some rocks to get washed up onto would be a luxury . ( i got trounced a few weeks back and it was only 10-12ft , "character building stuff " . A few of these prissy pro's could do with a good serve of it . ;-)
"A few of these prissy pro's could do with a good serve of it . ;-)"
Yeeewww
Hey Southy have you faced a 160km ball before? It very daunting, only faced them with a bowling machine in the nets, but was set at a line and length, Geez it's fucking quick.
MJ a show pony anyways, would love to see him paddling out with yourself on that wave at 10-12ft wave.
I'm sure you would be giving him the evil glare then hahahaha.
yeah i have with bowling machine welly and i'm a cricketers arsehole . But i did play vs the state baseball pitcher at high school .
Also Arsehole mates were manning the machine too , so the last few got pushed in without a warning signal , and the bastards also did some tricky stuff with the seam , hence steel caps are a luxury .
The paddle out at said place is sweet , even Mitchy wouldn't be too rattled to start with . Although a Kilometre or so offshore and approaching sets would surely wishing he was back in the Tattoo parlour.
Big issue is not being swept down the coast , or cop a dozen or so on the head in a row , its a big keyhole but compared to the surrounding cliffs its a small crack in a 30-40 km expanse . Not sure about a glare , maybe if i was the only one around , and it would most likely be words before he decided to " have a look " .
Not comparing it with surfing, but I have faced some good club fast bowlers. It is an awareness raising exercise. Different to a bowling machine. The intimate human interaction, bowler to batter, is intense. The repeated speed, accuracy and focused malice in the curve and lift of a delivery by a decent fast bowler is quite attention grabbing. It's a whole other level.
A mate, a very experienced first grade club batter, faced a retired Andy Bichel a few years ago. Bichel was not super quick, more around the high 130s in speed. Bichel is a top bloke and wasn't trying to kill him, but my mate was stunned just how heavy was the force of each ball. It just isn't the same as a bowling machine.
Yeah , I know it's different . I grew up with cricketing mates . I still watch them with beers to stop the boredom . One of them probably rolled em in at 130 . I'm guessing though that 130-160 is like going from a solid 6ft beachie to powerful 10ft deep water reef break . 90 % of people have played cricket socially maybe 70% have played with proper cricket balls . I'm reasonably sure rolling around in the shore break is not a easy introduction to Surfviving .
true Wally true.
"Also Arsehole mates were manning the machine too "
Haha Southey your mates eh, geez who won....?
"The paddle out at said place is sweet , even Mitchy wouldn't be too rattled to start with . Although a Kilometre or so offshore and approaching sets would surely wishing he was back in the Tattoo parlour."
True as Southey, to some other Tattoos that he wish had not got;)
uuummm 8-12 ft reef out 1 km off shore sounds full on.
There is a beach break tho close by that packs a powerful punch for sure;)
My pride got fed its own arse Welly ;-) I'm a self confident sort of bloke who got cut down . Hahahe
One thing is for certain , any caught inside or over the falls isn't cheered like when your with ya mates on a surf boat trip or down the local park sledging ya mate who's a little antsy out in the centre .
Apart from all that it's all just a level of comfortability that you learn to raise . Just like I would probably have a cardiac trying to ride out of a super steep rock lined chute , and you my friend would be looking for a more critical line .
No at all Southey, we would both go together and make it off the grid so to speak;)
Being Drug Aware as well.
Southey do u see the potential west swell about 15th ? @ margs
"I'd take on Mitch any day of the week"
Get ya hand off it, mate.... ;)
You wouldn't know what fuckn hit ya..... Heart pounding as southey walks out opening for surfistan in front of a packed MCG... Dizzy with adrenalin... Opposition fielders sticking it to ya'... Southey marks his crease... Spots himself on the bigscreen... 40 odd million people watching just dawns on him... The weight of surfistan on his shoulders...
1st ball BANG!!!! Right on the elbow!!! Dead arm.... Bat drops to the ground... 100 000 people cheering... ooh and ahhs as it's replayed on the big screen.... Southey heard a crunching noise... The ice spray sort of works... But he's got this funny sick feeling in his stomach... His mate at the other end, welly, walks down and says "fuckn man up mate"!
2nd ball Crack!!!! on the helmet.... Down he goes... Thankfully it didn't sneak through like Phil Hughes, but southey feels this warm trickle of blood running down his neck... A golf ball lump automatically grows, but he pick himself up...
3rd ball - THWWUMP!!! The box compresses and his left ball cops the full brunt.... His scrotum blood blistered beyond recognition... The vomit flows like a busted watermain..
10 minutes later, southey gingerly faces the 4th delivery, which breaks 3 toes, but thankfully went on to bowl him...
As he is stretchered off, a mere shell of his former self, the crowd booing and chortling, the press uploading the nights critique, southey dreams of being underwater, relaxing his muscles and going with the flow of a good ragdolling... Even the thought of the second wave hold down puts him into a zen like trance....
"I will come up... I will come up"......... ;p
There's some level that people reach where they laugh at what others would see their eyes flash before them . In either sport I'm no where near that level . Guys like MM laugh after getting rag dolled at the right . People like Viv Richards at the crease and Ian Healy right up behind the stumps to slow medium pacers , refusing to wear helmets .
I have gone over the falls on days easily much bigger than 10ft and worn the rest of the set at offshore reefs that'll drag you hundreds of metres , and I've had my board spring back and catapult directly fin first up my nose .
I'd still say I'd face the uncertainty of Mitchy bruises and all the other stuff , than knowingly Receive a go down like Paul Morgan took . The cricketing pain and bruising would heal easier knowing I'd experienced it once , I've already played on the G in front of 60,000 , so to raise it to 100000 would be worth the nervous over with Mitch .
Point is you take your beating the right way and your better for it .
Sheepie do you see the swell on the 15th at margs any good ?
Oh . You guys been saying that already days ago hey !
See how I took it back to the topic , SD , stu ......
Caml I hope your not talking about any of these cyclones . I'm not rating them as an influence , and neither are the swellnet models .
There is a reasonable chance of WSW , but my thoughts really concentrate on the LWT charts and they are painting an indication that any significant swell will be more likely SW or SSW , as that looks to be the strongest node . There is another node looking to sit below South Africa . But most likely the most probability will be roaring fifties fronts intensifying as they pass through the LWT node . Outside chance late in period of transitioning tropical system dropping down to meet frontal system which could then also hold and intensify again . So W swell isn't totally out of the picture , maybe a really long range swell could push through these broad band highs without getting mixed into local southern features , but I would hazard that it would be captured or be of excessive size .
"See how I took it back to the topic , SD"....
You are a phenomenon..... A wasted talent..... ;)
I think hypotheticals that have no chance of turning into reality are the easiest to answer.... With my current fitness level, and I f I had no choice in the matter, I'd have to say that an over from MJ would be my call..... I'd just protect the vitals..... Cop the public humiliation from the media... Sledged and joked about in every cafe and pub forever..... But at a early 30s fitness level, i'd take the surf.... At a Paul Morgan fitness level, I'd definitely take the surf.....
Like you, southwald I have surfed some big stuff..... Not 15 foot though..... 10 foot plus..... Rarely get anything decent above that on the east coast.....Wasn't a "star".... But have had some good ones...
Yeah copped a board under the chin.... Blacked out for a split second underwater..... Near death experience....Hospital.... Yadda yadda, all that......
Had an interesting wipeout once..... Was in the 8 to maybe 10' range.. As big as that spot could handle.... Winter ecl.....01 or 02 I think..... A doggy door escape out of a barrel - really should've just stayed under the curtain, but wanted to claim...... Now anyone who has surfed stuff over 8 foot on semi shallow reef would've had one of these.... Happens in big hollow waves....So I'm pitted..... But too deep for the next backdoor section...... There's a tiny opening.... Slight highline adjust and drop down out of the barrel, or keep driving into the next section where you know you aint gonna come out..... I chose option one..... Silly..... The lip exploded inches behind my tail........ Here's the thing... there's this tiny moment in time.... where the whitewater explosion rains down on you like some sort of torrential storm..... It's quite freaky.... You'd swear you are standing in a monsoon...... Then white light.... you get evaporated.... It's like your board just vanishes, and for a millisecond, you are in the white beam peacefully heading towards "the other side" like a ghost.... Then fuckn BAM!!!!!!!!! You know the rest ;)
Camel, yeah real good and strong SW (touch more west of south-west but not true west-southwest) groundswell for the 15th.
From the LWT moving in over the weekend.
Should be looking at easy 10-12ft exposed reefs at this early stage. SE winds as well.
Second follow up swell for 17th but a touch smaller. Just in time!!
.
WA forecast update here with some more info: Average period ahead of large clean swell next week
Craig, you wrote "We may then see a secondary large pulse for Thursday but with less favourable NE winds. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday though."
Re' ne winds......... So what's the ideal wind/swell for the box? Any chance of a few heats held there?
Yeah E/NE to N'th I think but I'm pretty sure it'll be too big. Only good on moderate swells?
"Apart from all that it's all just a level of comfortability that you learn to raise"
Fully understand that Southey;)
Thats a great statement with all aspects of life...........
Craig wrote:Yeah E/NE to N'th I think but I'm pretty sure it'll be too big. Only good on moderate swells?
Cheers, thanks for that.... I'm no W.A expert......
12 foot mainbreak,maxin box....aren't these cunts "worlds best surfers"!shouldn't matter then should it...?
Sheepdog wrote:Craig, you wrote "We may then see a secondary large pulse for Thursday but with less favourable NE winds. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday though."
Re' ne winds......... So what's the ideal wind/swell for the box? Any chance of a few heats held there?
Light ESE . Or straight E .
And NE winds on the second swell is perfect for main break left barrels . ( as per caml's recommendation ) .
Here it is .
My swell prediction.....