COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:06pm

Indo's graph shows a fact he didn't mention. From the peak of the second wave he blames on Dan Andrews, personally, the graph shows a decline to zero. Elimination. The only leader on the planet to do so. The guy deserves credit. Let's see how NSW does over the coming weeks.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:10pm

Dan did really well when playing defence. Kudos. I fear NSW don't know what they are facing yet, like a Greek Tragedy you know the characters are going to come a cropper, you see the threat, yet it all still plays out. Politics wise, each side can go tit for tat, but do we have exposure down our way and were we all too complacent last week, not knowing it was coming?

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:14pm

Adam12s post is the exact mentality that will sadly see Dan Andrews get reelected.

"let's give a prize to the guy that light's a house on fire and then puts it out."

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:18pm

Patting the arsonist on the back when the entire state sacrifices everything to put out the fire he lit.

Nice work Adam12.

Edit : Just read your post after Indo .

VJ - Yep, Gladys is sacrificing everything at the alter of expediency by not ensuring the NSW quarantine was tight also. Super spreaders are en route .

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:16pm

ha ha beat you to it Blowin :P

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:16pm

VJ. I saw a map of where the covid cases are in Sydney over the last 30 days and every single shire has at least one case.
While the list of hotspot locations are concentrated on the Northern Beaches, there's very large buildings all over Sydney on the list. There's also a list of train and bus routes across a wide geographic area.
It beggars belief that the NSW government thinks the outbreak can be stopped by locking down just one shire.
I'm not overly pissed at the people trying to run the quarantine system because they were passed the poison chalice. I am pissed at the Federal government who have punted their responsibility onto others, and I'm pissed about the NSW government's response to the outbreak.
This looks like a gold standard fuck up.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:18pm

"It beggars belief that the NSW government thinks the outbreak can be stopped by locking down just one shire."

I do have to agree wth that bit, the whole of Sydney should be in full on lockdown, yeah it would suck, but much safer option.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:20pm

Closing the QLD border just means more superspreaders for the regions in NSW.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:34pm

Crew if you disagree with me feel free to take a shot, in supporting locking everything down here for health reasons I understand that puts businesses to the sword and that is a terrible thing to do. Luckily there was some form of support for many businesses and people. My rationale is that an uninfected economy can rebound, and knowing people, will rebound fast.

One of the best things Dan did was separate the regions from the areas of infection, which was in the metro area. From a regional viewpoint of course, it sucked for metro surfers and was not deserved by them in any way. In this way the regions, with far less health infrastructure and maybe more older people, were spared a fast moving outbreak.

For NSW, if you are regional, they have sounded out a regional/metro difference, they may yet do the same as Dan and Mark in WA and Steven in SA. It seems to work. There are many holiday makers there presently, but so too for us on the last Easter holidays, right when the Melbourne numbers were taking off. As locals, we kept our heads down - our family at least. It turned out OK, so very very few of the holiday makers in our case would have had the infection.

VL - if there's cases in every shire that's really problematic. Vic's experience shows that most will isolate when told, but enough % don't. Similarly, if we've got a number down here who were close contacts, just hope they all have isolated well. We won't know for 2 weeks or so...

ilikelamb's picture
ilikelamb's picture
ilikelamb Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:47pm

At the bottom of this link is a map of postcode area colour indicates case numbers and if you click on postcode area it’ll give you number of total and current cases.

https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-facts-about-covid-19

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:04pm

"It’s hard to know where to start when dissecting the many and varied failings by Premier Daniel Andrews, his ministers and his public servants detailed in retired judge Jennifer Coate’s scathing 325-page report into Victoria’s hotel quarantine program.

So shoddy were the processes behind the Victorian government’s decision to use private security to guard Melbourne’s 16 quarantine hotels from April to June that Coate has found neither the Premier "nor his ministers had any active role in, or oversight of, the decision about how that enforcement would be achieved"."

"...Among thousands of documents handed to the inquiry, not one shows why the decision to use private security was taken – a finding "likely to shock the public", Coate wrote.

"...What might surprise the Victorian public further is the extent to which the default position within the state government has become to simply outsource anything it can – in part to cover itself from blame for failures

"...And yet nobody objected when a highly subcontracted industry with a high proportion of shonks working in it was given the job. Adding insult, his government blithely released a report on how broken the private security industry was at the same time that the industry was becoming the vector for the spread of COVID-19 outside quarantine hotels."

https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/scathing-report-exposes-failure...

"What might surprise the Victorian public further is the extent to which the default position within the state government has become to simply outsource anything it can – in part to cover itself from blame for failures."[email protected][email protected][email protected]???!!!!!

a bloody disgrace!

...compounded on top of fucked up compounds because the whole process is the exact opposite of what a labor government is supposed to represent...

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 5:59pm

As an island Covid should never have got into Australia.

Once in had cases been isolated remotely happy days.

Reminder: our borders were closed 10 weeks after the first case.

Any discussion about blame, failures and costs needs to start at the above points - thanks Scomo

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:03pm

Interesting reading. Went all the way back to last time I was on here.

Few points to make. Treatment/cure: these terms are used for people who have Covid. It’s not preventative. Currently there is NO cure, only treatment, which has got much better since March. Reason, in March this was a ‘novel’ coronavirus, completely new. They now have 8 months experience in dealing with it and the medical community learn fast.

Supafreak and others have queried why Ivermectin isn’t being used as a treatment, refer to a cover up (which is a pretty poor cover up seeing as you can read it anywhere, but that’s by the by). May I respectfully suggest that there is no cover up, that the medical community are sharing information widely and quickly about EVERY treatment that offers some respite. They are very good at it. Information is going around. Ivermectin can be put into a class of drugs like hydroxychloroquine. Not that they are the same types of drugs, just that they have heavy side effects and should only be administered in a hospital setting. This can be put into the “don’t tell everyone, or they might try injecting aquarium cleaner up their arms.”

Knowledge that these and other drugs may be helpful is being shared around but is actively being done ‘on the quiet’. The medical community do this knowing that a little knowledge is dangerous, and it’s best if we don’t know.

Next, a treatment doesn’t prevent you getting it, so having Joe Public buying up Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine and self administering is both ineffective and dangerous. Just a theory, take it or leave it, but this is not a ‘political cover up’, this is how the medical community work.

Second point - a vaccine isn’t a cure, it is a preventative measure. It stops it, it doesn’t cure it. NOT interchangeable!

The vaccines can either prevent you getting an infection - it recognises the virus so quickly it stamps it out before it gets hold - or it prevents an infection from progressing to Covid-19, the disease. In the first case it SHOULD prevent you from becoming a spreader, but no guarantees. In the second case it may or may not prevent you from becoming a spreader.

Prof Tony Blakely (ran Australia’s HIV/AIDS response) favours that the vaccine will prevent getting Covid-19 and from becoming an asymptomatic spreader, but nobody knows.

First vaccines were administered in the last week. In two more weeks the very first vaccine recipients will get their second dose. Immunity will peak 1 week later and stay for a period of time that nobody knows. So we are currently 3 weeks from getting the first real world data. So far everything known is from trials.

In the meantime some may have adverse effects, they can come on immediately or later. Good chance we will hear bad news quickly, good news always travelling slower. Interesting times ahead.

TL:DR?

- No cover up, just because it wasn’t on page one of your favourite media does not constitute a cover up.
- A treatment is for after a person has got it and has no efficacy beforehand.
- There is no cure, yet (if we had a cure, we wouldn’t need a vaccine)
- A vaccine is for prevention and generally has no efficacy as a treatment.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:09pm

geez guysmiley...

you're playing the point for point game pretty bloody hard...

nauseatingly hard...

I think we all very well know that if labor were in at a federal level the border closure would have only come later

'the left' and their guardian mouth pieces were only rattling on about 'racism' at that time...

and only went even harder when morrison made his move

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:11pm

'I think we all very well know that if labor were in at a federal level the border closure would have only come later'

Do we though? All we know for sure is that you think that, but hey, we didn't need to be told explicitly to know that now did we.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:24pm

Re comments on Sydney being complacent (in a most judgmental tone)

Prior to this week, yes, mostly, but we still have distancing rules being policed, particularly at venues. Fair enough though. Prior to this week there was literally zero virus around. They weren’t even picking up any in sewage (evidenced by the fact that you would read about it if they did find any). I would suggest that many were relaxed and comfortable rather than complacent, but I don’t know every Sydney-siders’ mind.

Re Avalon couple, firstly bad luck, secondly, what a pair of twats. Was there any effing establishment, cafe, pie shop, massage parlour, restaurant, RSL or Bowlo that they didn’t visit for an hour or two in the last few days? Pull your effing heads in. I think my wife and I have chalked up 4 restaurant visits in 9 months. Support your restaurants and cafes by getting take away you fu#&heads!

SMH editorial yesterday mentioned that they did break some quarantine early, first I had read of it, in which case, double twats. Classic entitled, rich boomer behaviour.

Complacent now, first response huge, everyone getting tested, some in lines for 6 hours and more, heads pulled in.

Masks - still see vast majority not wearing masks when shopping (eastern suburbs, not Bondi Junction, so no actual cases here yet). Again, pull your heads in, wear a mask, shop and get the eff out of there.

Gladys, asking, recommending a mask! Grow a pair Gladys and mandate wearing a mask for any indoor sites other than your own home. This one is indefensible, masks are one of the most effective and cheapest methods of control when there is an outbreak, and Gladys is “asking”.

NO. LEADERSHIP. THERE.

So, in essence, a little bit complacent with good reason. We didn’t realise that 9 months after we started this nightmare they were still giving exemptions for travellers. No exemptions, stuff that.

Now, not complacent, testing 38K yesterday for a very small number of positives. That’s good news.

At this stage it’s line ball, but I think we will get on top of this quickly and hopefully the numbers come down soon, but probably not for a week or two. Recognise that that statement could make me look very stupid in a fortnight, but that’s my feeling and reading of the numbers.

Numbers to bounce around for next 10 days, hopefully staying below 50 on any day, and with distancing and masks the numbers to drop to nothing or close to it in two weeks.

No distancing, no masks, we’re Victoria Mk II.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:27pm

'I think we all very well know that if labor were in at a federal level the border closure would have only come later'
That's straight out of the LNP's "Interest rates will always be higher under Labor" playbook. Impossible to prove and just meaningless political spin.
I'm going to put this out there. The LNP have been in power more often than not in the last 25 years because they've managed to attract enough stupid people to win an election.
Scumo got the 2019 idiot vote via Clive Palmer and Hanson. If it wasn't for the mouth breathers who are easily swayed by a two thumbed, fat miner with a shit eaten grin on a billboard, the Libs would never have won the last election.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:31pm

"I'm going to put this out there. The LNP have been in power more often than not in the last 25 years because they've managed to attract enough stupid people to win an election."
Well there's another lie VL, as I'm pretty sure you didn't vote for them.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:52pm

"Re Avalon couple, firstly bad luck, secondly, what a pair of twats. Was there any effing establishment, cafe, pie shop, massage parlour, restaurant, RSL or Bowlo that they didn’t visit for an hour or two in the last few days? Pull your effing heads in. I think my wife and I have chalked up 4 restaurant visits in 9 months. Support your restaurants and cafes by getting take away you fu#&heads!"

Yeah Batfink, when you look at the venues that keep coming up in the alerts, it seems all that people do in life is go to cafes, hair salons, diners, pubs, get on planes and go to other destinations where they go to cafes, hair salons, diners, pubs. Thank goodness I surf and have a crippling distraction toward the ocean.

Edit: Vic had its Aspen set crew very early on in the outbreak down on the Mornington. Later surfaced at Buller too? So in NSW case, there was special self-regulatory stay-at-home quarantine and they just went YOLO?

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:43pm

Nah fitzroy, VL is spot on with that one.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 6:48pm

Well, whether it is opinion or fact, I'll stand by it.

Really good write up too batfink.

And I agree GS, A fish rots from the head, and that head is Scomo.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:04pm

The response on the beaches has been great as has been mentioned in the media.

Lots are getting tested, most are staying home and wearing masks, with the surf busy but not many mingling, otherwise out exercising.

The last two days, restaurants, streets etc and parks have been very quiet. I wonder how many have left for holidays which is a bit concerning but otherwise everyone is doing their bit on the ground across the beaches.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:07pm

Thanks JQ.
This is how things work for conservatives.
They absolutely profit at the ballot from a pool of people who hate the two main parties and/or think all politicians are bastards. These people typically vote for a so-called "outsider" (Hanson / Palmer / Katter) before directing preferences.
The Libs don't have to govern well to get back in power. They can be utterly corrupt and still get in. All they have to do is persuade the haters that Labor are worse. They do this using two main methods. 1. They have a handful of card carrying crackpots like Kelly, Canavan, and the Minister for Manila in the tent, and they jump into bed with scum like Hanson and Palmer. Meanwhile we get an increasingly shithouse government for the haters to whinge about. Oh Hi blowin.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:14pm

"As an island Covid should never have got into Australia.

Once in had cases been isolated remotely happy days.

Reminder: our borders were closed 10 weeks after the first case.

Any discussion about blame, failures and costs needs to start at the above points - thanks Scomo"

You just keep going around in the same circles every few weeks with the same points that you know are unrealistic.

You know Australia was not late to shut down borders and know that its not something to be taken lightly and could have all kind of political implications with relations with other countries if we pulled the trigger to soon.

Not to mention the WHO was giving out very mixed messages to the world at the time.

Dates countries shut borders or at least to tourist.

Aust= March 20th

UK= March 17th advised against travel

Canada=March 18th

USA=March 18th

Brazil=March 19th

NZ= March 19th

Europe= various dates similar to other countries

Singapore=March 23rd
China=March 28th

Japan=April 3rd

Indonesia= April 25th

India=April 25th

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:19pm

So to get to the nub of your point Indo, are you saying that the federal governments actions when closing our borders were inline with other countries and therefore aren't deserving of heavy criticism?

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:27pm

Yes.

Implying we were slow is just BS.

Especially considering what the WHO was saying at the time.

No mater who was in power Libs or Lab they would have been shut around that same time.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:35pm

@Vic Local

Labor had their chance Australia gave them a decent run about six years, but let's be honest, it was mostly shambles Krudd to Gillard back to Krudd.

You can makes excuses but end of the day the beauty of a democracy is the majority rule, they might not all be fans of the party they vote for but they generally vote for the least BS and party that they believe has performed the best or will perform the best.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:34pm

Yes, I agree Indo. It was and is a rapidly evolving and changing situation. The actions required to be taken were and are drastic and have wide reaching and heavy consequences. Any government should have been hesitant and guess what, they all were.

Now, lets take that concept and apply it to the 2nd wave in Melbourne. By any international standard, Dan Andrews and his government handled it admirably. Yes, it was caused by a poor decision, made in a 36 hour period during which hundreds of other equally, if not more, important decisions were made.

Has any other country got their 2nd wave back down to 0?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:39pm

We have a mechanism in govt where the chief health officers take over response in certain circumstances? I believe they recommended it to govt?

Edit: this was re: the closure of flights early on

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:42pm

I don't disagree Dan handled the second wave pretty good, but let's not forget it was his fault it happened to start with.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:43pm

The situation in Vic was caused by :
A / Scomo abandoning the federal responsibilities for border control it was then allowed to realise its catastrophic potential by
b/ Manchurian Dan’s incompetence/ political opportunism.

troppo dichotomy's picture
troppo dichotomy's picture
troppo dichotomy Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:44pm

Excellent work on closing the borders early against the WHO's advice.
Since then its been not so good.Does anybody remember when the borders closed Morronison and minister Hunt[hope no relation to Mike?]standing there announcing quarantine would be conducted at Chrissy Island or the Howard Springs in the N.T.

The mayor and local residence complained and then hotel quarantine was shifted to metro centers!This was our alternative?

It's been a train wreck ever since.Pathetic leadership.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 7:47pm

This comparing our performance to other countries in areas like Covid, our economy, our deficit and action on climate is what the LNP do to hide their failings.

Our economy is fucked but less fucked than them other there - look!

Remember Abbott’s debt and deficit disaster election campaign as opposition leader, blah blah Labor’s debt ..... so what’s the debt now? One trillion? but Australia debt is way better than all those other countries over there ... look, Australia good those bad.

As as Covid, same as climate .... if we aim to be the country we all want, if we want to be world’s best practice there’s no comparing with other countries .... just a smoke and mirrors trick from the do nothing proactive conservatives

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 8:10pm

Not that they are the same types of drugs, just that they have heavy side effects and should only be administered in a hospital setting. I enjoyed reading your post Batfink , with any prescribed drug you get a rather long paper of how to use and do’s and don’ts , plus possibly side effects. I’ve heard ivermectin on these posts described from “ dangerous , to , heavy side effects “ But leading professional doctors that work in icu covid clinics are saying the opposite . Can anyone please provide me with a link that a clinical trial proves ivermectin is ineffective in treatment for covid . I have personally had this drug for a intestines parasite infection and had nil side effects, all that happened was 2 days later I was pain free. I’m not saying everyone will not experience side effects but not everyone will be able to have a vaccine even if they wanted to so surety treatment is as important as a vaccine.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 8:12pm

That's it Blowin, you get Dan, get him!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 8:28pm

That’s it JQ , you defend the incompetent politician who oversaw the lockdown of millions of people. I’m sure he appreciates your blind devotion.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 8:36pm

I'm not defending an incompetent politician nor am I suffering blind devotion. Just not up for your pile on because he's one of your chosen enemies. You just make sure to keep pitch with your buddies at Skynews, it's an awful racket when you're all singing the same song but one of you is a little off pitch.

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 9:13pm

Mistakes have been made in all jurisdictions in this covid saga. Some bigger than others and some with bigger consequences, but they all made them. I don't judge them on their mistakes necessarily. A once in a century event that even if planned for, involves inevitable mistakes. You can't blame them if they are doing their best and shit happens. You judge them on how they respond, what do they learn and how do they fix the mistake. Either side of politics doesn't matter.
If you take the time and drll down into the evidence presented to, and report of the Royal Commission the trail of who's decision it was to use the security guards it gets to PC Ashton who frankly was/is a lazy fuck near retirement and embroiled in the Lawyer X scandal, who didn't want VicPol or himself to do the work, so he suggested it had been suggested and they went from there. Andrews made mistakes, but he didn't make that one.
He killed the fucken' virus when it got out and as a Victorian, for that, he has my full support.. Blowin, Indo, "he started the fire", been reading that a bit lately from people pushing against Andrews out of their own political biases and seeking an opportunity to attack. As I said, name another world leader, especially a tory or Trumpista, that killed a second wave. Fair to attack him, just don't be so biased. That is political opportunism to me.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Monday, 21 Dec 2020 at 9:13pm

On the money there Adam. It's the same rhetoric that says Scomo started the bushfires and Kevin Rudd was responsible for those people that unfortunately died installing ceiling insulation.

It's dishonest simplification for nothing more than political leverage. I'd expect most people to be aware enough to identify this, but evidently not.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 12:01am

Panic on the streets of London

"With more than 16 million Britons now required to stay at home as coronavirus lockdown went into effect on Sunday, tens of thousands of Londoners scrambled to get out of the capital Saturday night.

Boris Johnson's bombshell announcement to introduce Tier 4 restrictions in London and southeast England, to mitigate the spreading of a new strain of the coronavirus, sparked traffic jams and crowded train terminals as people made a mad dash out of the metro area before draconian new rules were imposed at midnight."

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trying-get-hell-out-emergency-lockdo...

(you thought I'd post the other song... but no, this one has bicycles to get away on and surely we saw stuff like this last-minute fleeing here in Oz...)

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 1:42am

Early World Covid + China (vs) US bioweapon + Early Oz Pandemic Response.
3 only BSL4 zoo Labs...one for each land mass outbreak.
All spiral back to WIV (built by French) for main land GOF / animal testing.
They all share funding / scientists (bat lady) / Coronavirus military experiments.

Covid Bio weapon Timeline...if it reads 100% real...that's because it is.

There is no beginning as all 3 BSL4 make coronavirus..
How long is a piece of string...Big Pharm coronavirus games are GOF in 2019

China wants us to start here...it's their pandemic so fair enough!
2nd Aug - CDC shut down US Defence BSL4 Lab
https://wjla.com/news/local/cdc-shut-down-army-germ-lab-health-concerns
Aug - Australian Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/519F9392...
30th Aug- Scientists team up to fight epidemic threat to Australia
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2019/Scientists-team-up-to-fi...
World Military Games 140 nations (1st time held at a City Venue)
10,000 Athletes in 2,000 new built accom..(US Top Brass near Wet Markets?)
Sept/Oct Wuhan Military World Games > (Evacuation for Month Long Event)
Techpark evictions / Power & gas cut / Digital Signs smashed / Hi-rise evacs / Sealed Views / Ban all cars / Mobilty Scooters banned...nothing within sight!
[Warning] Images of dead Girl +Chinese Govt Thugs smashing up lady's garden.
https://bitterwinter.org/the-human-price-of-wuhans-military-world-games/...

18 Sept -Wuhan Airport (Masked entry + Temp checks for Wuhan Military Games)
All Military Athletes confirm they had Temp Checks on entry into Wuhan.
That's right crew...Wuhan were rocking the Pandemic Look way back when!
https://wx4.sinaimg.cn/large/72bac5e7ly1g73wbyoz07j24802tc7wo.jpg
https://m.weibo.cn/status/4417955901048977
Games (Parachuting Event) Verifies Evacuated Province (See > No cars Below).
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/720479/parachuting-competition-military-w...

18 Oct - Military Games opening Ceremony [ 141:00 < Main show >230:00 ]


18 Oct [ Event 201] US Pandemic Response is run in unison.
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html

..............................................................................................................................................................
China (vs) US Bio Weapon is released (Each blame the other)
tbb can give you the names / sporting events even cheats that threw events.
That's about where tbb draws the line...not naming Heimi as Dr No.
https://sorryaboutthischief.tumblr.com/
Super villains vying for best & fairest medal that neither have a hope of winning.

WMG Athletes explain that timely World cases in Wastewater prior to Wuhan.
French Military Doctor thinks many of his team suffered Covid (100's)
France, Sweden, Germany ,Iran, Italian says full apartments sick & med supplies run out.
Many passed (3 week running) virus onto family > also Brazil (Tracing)
All athletes that spoke out were asked to halt media & nod no if asked again.
https://prospect.org/coronavirus/did-the-military-world-games-spread-cov...

Media Q: Will military screen US Wuhan Athletes
Gen/Sec "Not aware of what you're talking about!" Packing up '234 outta here!
https://www.c-span.org/video/?471201-1/defense-secretary-esper-general-m...
Us military fly out bases were said to super spread covid.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183658.shtml
Nov US Defence intelligence warns Nato + Israel of Wuhan outbreak
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-alerted-israel-nato-to-disease-outbreak...
Nov. China Sciences warn of Outbreak to CSIRO (Tell PM to Close Borders)
https://medium.com/@narelleford/wednesday-post-da60561dfa40
(See here for those two above links)
17th Nov -55y/o Hubei man 1st Wuhan case (Wechat searches for Corona/Sars)
Chinese Health officials : "Wuhan Outbreak averages 1-5 cases per day"
1st Dec-Alzheimers man in 70's (None of these cases ever visited Wet Markets)
China ID this patient as first to be caught in the Covid net long enough to diagnose.
..................................................................................................................................................................
WHO operatives make believe virus runs wild here...Shh! Don't disturb them!
..................................................................................................................................................................
10th Dec - Case #29 is 57 y/o Lady (Shrimp seller) kicks off Wuhan Cluster
20th Dec- 60 cases (includes the Fish Markets)
2nd Feb- Chinese evacuation flight is quarantined offshore at Christmas Island.
1st March Qld /WA Prof's Bio Health say Covid origin was before Market
17 April OZ funded Vaxine Covax "Petrovsky says Covid-19 is Lab made"
...............................................................................................................................................................
19 April -Ignoring Oz science > PM swears Covid originated in Evil Wet Markets?
Despite local Foodies saying they've never seen or sold a bat at Wuhan Markets.
Some were even sickened by the thought that city folk would eat such.
Closest Baiyun Cave flicks a neon Light show each night...no bats in Wuyan!
https://www.barclaycardtravel.com/t5/Travel-Stories/Baiyun-Cave-Wuhan/ba...
.................................................................................................................................................................

Timeline shows Oz PM was more than expecting a Pandemic + even had a plan.
232 page...Management Plan for a Pandemic Influenza is still in it's plastic wrap!
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/519F9392...$File/w-AHMPPI-2019.PDF
No pollie nor Media have ever mentioned it! (Last updated 21st Aug 2019)
More toilet paper for Woolies.

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 7:09am

"What might surprise the Victorian public further is the extent to which the default position within the state government has become to simply outsource anything it can – in part to cover itself from blame for failures"

This is the default now for all governments of all colours. In the Victorian case, they have now changed the way that workers are employed and ensured that they don't need to work more than one job in numerous locations as was the case before and was a large part of the reason for the spread into the community

If throwing around blame it would be only fair to also take aim at the federally funded aged care facilities where the largest number of deaths occurred.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-21/victoria-coronavirus-aged-care-re...

While Morrison gets credit for "doing a good job" basically it seems to me that he has let the states run the show as they wish and has had a very hands off approach with the way the restrictions are handled with little input and bugger all direction, apart from sniping at Qld during the run up to the the election. Definitely not the actions of a good leader.

The economic side of things have been better. Worth noting though is that some of the economic advisors (in treasury not the gas lead recovery crew) were part of the team advising Rudd and Swan during the GFC. Basically he has implemented a lot of what he criticised Labor for.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 10:00am

Guy said

"This comparing our performance to other countries in areas like Covid, our economy, our deficit and action on climate is what the LNP do to hide their failings.

Our economy is fucked but less fucked than them other there - look!

Remember Abbott’s debt and deficit disaster election campaign as opposition leader, blah blah Labor’s debt ..... so what’s the debt now? One trillion? but Australia debt is way better than all those other countries over there ... look, Australia good those bad.

As as Covid, same as climate .... if we aim to be the country we all want, if we want to be world’s best practice there’s no comparing with other countries .... just a smoke and mirrors trick from the do nothing proactive conservatives"

My reply:

It's how people gauge PERSPECTIVE it's not at all limited to conservatives, it's what humans do, all sides of politics do it.

Perspective is always important when looking at these things.

When people like you say, we acted to late on closing borders, its easy to prove you wrong and show you that we were not late, and as someone mentioned above we were eve going against the advice of the WHO

Same deal with debt, our debt levels are super low compared to other countries.

(Australia's debt as a proportion of annual economic output)

"France (116 per cent), the UK (96 per cent), the US (132 per cent) and Canada (109 per cent) all exceed Australia's (36.1 per cent this financial year, according to the Treasury, and 43.8 per cent in 2023-24)."

There is also obviously good times and bad times to borrow money and good reasons and bad reasons to borrow money, right now is a good time to borrow money and a good reason too.

Again this has never happened before.

"The federal government has just been paid to borrow money as the interest rate on Treasury notes turns negative for the first time as investors seek to park cash."

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/government-being-paid-to-borrow-as-ra...

Economy wise, obviously covid is going to affect every country.

Again reality is we are the envy of the world, best case scenerio has already happened Early days but signs already good "Australia 'emerges from recession' after GDP figures show economy growing for the first time this year"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-02/australia-september-quarter-econo...

This after 28 years without a recession is amazing.

You just dont like these things being pointed out because it doest fit in with your political views.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 10:06am

Northern beaches strain now in Victoria.

Merry Christmas gentlemen, it’s the season for giving!!

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 11:22am

just to be clear, I don't think morrison has done a good job. I think he's been reluctantly dragged along by the states, who have generally done a good job, and showed a willingness to act way before he did.

however, he did get the shutting borders thing right. and it's just plain delusional to think labor would have moved any earlier

"The economic side of things have been better. Worth noting though is that some of the economic advisors (in treasury not the gas lead recovery crew) were part of the team advising Rudd and Swan during the GFC. Basically he has implemented a lot of what he criticised Labor for."

oh, so that would explain why it was all big cash splash, void of vision, dumb arse spending...

the biggest lost economic opportunity in a lifetime

tragic stuff

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 11:23am

Better result for Sydney today, 8 cases from 40,000+ tests

1 in Vic from Sydney, no outside contact while infectious is the call...

Meanwhile, here's a more pictorial view of what's going on in London via the Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9071155/Huge-queues-train-stati...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 11:25am

Morrison threw a hospital pass to the states by abrogating the federal responsibilities for quarantine and border control. The varying premiers showed their true colours with their corresponding ability to take up the slack.

Manchurian Dan failed impeccably as did Gladys but luck was on Gladys’s side when the Ruby Princess fck up ran out of steam .

The job of the premier is to steer the ship.

Day one of the quarantine snafu landing on their desk should be to gather the staff together and discuss problems and demand hard , certain solutions. This is the Premier’s job believe it or not . The job isn’t just press meetings.

When the premier probes his staff with questions and the staff sit slack jawed and unable to account for who is responsible for ensuring the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT TASK facing the state - that of ensuring the virus is kept from the community- then the premier takes charge and makes sure that the job is done correctly. He delegates authority.

If authority has not been delegated and no one knows who’s job it was to ensure quarantine was performed in a strict and successful manner then the premier has failed in their duty.

End of story.

Dan Andrews is a fck up who constantly declares he takes responsibility until any responsibility is needed and then he goes MIA.

Any other industry, any other situation, any other time and the head of the snake would be lopped.

Unfortunately we are in the age of political unaccountability and both Scomo and Manchurian Dan get to continue about their business, wages in the bank each week , pension secured and go on to ever bigger and ever better fck ups than the last.

And if millions of people lose months of their lives under house arrest or their livelihoods or even their very lives well that’s just too fckn bad because no one in power will ever step up to the task they are employed to do - take responsibility.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 22 Dec 2020 at 12:04pm

Nothing like KRudd and the batts because he obviously can’t be expected to be responsible for individuals not observing safety protocol . An unlicensed individual putting pink batts into a roof space and electrocuting themselves has no parallel at all with failing to properly enforce quarantine which would prevent the descent into chaos of an entire state and everyone within it. Particularly as KRudd never refused the offer of help from a suitable professional institution to implement the installation as did Dan when he refused the help from the ADF .

Responsibility for hotel quarantine was political expediency at a macro level. There should have been oversight by the premier ( probably was anyway ) when the defence force was told they were not needed.

For the premier to not inquire which company was responsible for the most important task in the entire state is inexcusable. I don’t believe it’s even feasible to consider this as true. I can’t imagine any circumstance when the head of an organisation was to say “ We’ve got one job to do to ensure our entire organisation is not destroyed and I’m not interested in being involved in the process to any degree whatsoever.”

It’s not believable that the CEO of a mining company would not ask who had won the tender for building the port which distributes the product the entire operation depends upon . When the answer came back that the job building the port went without tender to a company of a couple of dozen staff and no prior experience in the role the CEO would’ve exploded. But Dan didn’t enquire , didn’t care and dodged any responsibility for it all when the shit show went up in flames .

JQ - That’s got nothing to do with Sky news or whatever other condescending suggestions you might have for my not being able to arrive at my own thought process without being steered by media propaganda- which I don’t even read / watch. So you can leave your patronising at the door bloke. Don’t act like that other clown with his insults or I’ll just put you in the same category as him ie dismiss everything he posts.