Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 10th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell holds Tues morning before easing
• Another small bump in S swell Wed with light winds tending NE in the a’noon
• Traces of long period S swell supply small waves for S facing beaches Thurs/Fri, not much elsewhere
• Tiny this weekend- S swell magnets may have a rideable wave Sat
• Small surf continues into next week, possible small S swell Mon
• Possible low in the Tasman later next week. Low confidence, check back Wed for latest update

Recap

Small waves over the weekend with Sat seeing mostly 2ft surf at S facing beaches with a few of the better S swell magnets topping out at 2-3ft. W winds tended W/NW then NW-N before strong W’ly winds kicked in o/night Sat. Sun was smaller, 1-2ft at better S swell magnets, 1ft or less elsewhere with fresh W’lies. Swell picked up overnight with today seeing 2-3ft of S swell, bigger 4ft on the Hunter groomed by offshore winds.

Few nice waves on the Hunter, not much elsewhere

This week (Jul 10-14)

Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, sending small S swell pulses our way. Nothing of any size its expected due to the zonal and mobile nature of the fetches so you’ll need to find a swell magnet. Later in the week the high moves into the Tasman at roughly sub-tropical latitudes, maintaining settled conditions across most of NSW, with a reasonable ridge up the QLD Coast. 

In the short run we should see todays S swell size hold into tomorrow, with 2-3ft of S swell at S facing beaches (favouring Sydney to the Hunter), bigger 4ft on the Hunter. W’ly winds will get a tilt to the W/SW to SW as a front passes into the Tasman with windspeeds easing into the a’noon.

High pressure will approach the east coast on Wed, with morning land breezes tending light/variable before light NE seabreezes kick up in the a’noon. We’ll see another small pulse of S swell Wed from the passage of todays front and low across the Tasman. Again, not much size in it, back up to 2-3ft at S facing beaches (tops), with some bigger sets possible on the Hunter where we’ll see the most of a small signal of longer period S swell. Otherwise, remaining tiny at most breaks.

By Thurs and into the end of the week we’ll see high pressure slip out into the Tasman with a light NE flow developing. Winds should remain W-NW early under light pressure gradients. Unfortunately, not much surf is expected. Wed’s small pulse eases off through Thurs with a few 2ft sets possible at S swell magnets early before fading.

Fri should see a slight bump in small, longer period S swell but topping out with 2-3ft sets again at S swell magnets. Keep expectations pegged appropriately low and you might find a fun wave at magnets. 

This weekend (July 15-16)

Nothing much to get excited about for the weekend. Winds should tend NW to N as another front approaches, before switching W-SW on Sunday as it traverses the Tasman. Another zonal fetch not generating much in the way of S swell.

Small traces of S swell Sat may supply some rideable 2ft sets, but it’ll be tiny elsewhere.

Sunday looks even smaller and lower energy. Likely tiny/flat with an outside chance of some small refracted S swell trains from W’ly winds below Tasmania- not exceeding 1-2ft at the most reliable S swell magnets.

Looks like a perfect weekend for rockfishing or snorkelling.

Next week (July 17 onwards)

Weak, small surf looks to extend into next week. GFS has a weak front pushing into the Tasman which may offer a minor S swell Mon. EC has the front being pushed well to the south by a weak, blocking high pressure cell. 

We may well see tiny/flat surf extend through to the middle of next week under current modelling.

High pressure and angled low pressure trough sliding down from Vanuatu to Fiji produces a strong trade flow through the South Pacific Islands, with the edge of that fetch in the Coral Sea supplying small tradewind swell for SEQLD.

Anything filtering down from the E/NE from that source into temperate NSW looks to be vey small and weak and barely worth considering- other than we may need to bust out big boards to ride it absent any other swell source.

Longer term and EC is modelling a potential trough of low pressure in the Tasman later next week which may have some good swell potential. So far, no other models are interested.

Let’s see how Wed is shaping up, hopefully with something juicier on the radar to talk about.