Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent easing S/SE groundswell Sat, a’noon kick in new S swell Sun PM
• Offshore winds all weekend- more W/NW-NW Sat, W-W/SW Sun
• Smaller round of S swell now expected Mon, easing Tues
• More S swell Wed-Fri, likely small but revisions likely 
• More small long period S swell into the medium term

Recap

S/SE groundswell keeps on coming, with yesterday seeing clean 3ft sets, slightly bigger at some magnets, groomed by offshore winds. Things have slowed down into today with size down a notch (2-3ft) and longer waits. Still nice when they come under offshore winds, a bit fresh and gusty in some locations. 

Long waits but stil some long-lined sets on offer

This weekend (July 8 - 9)

We’re still on track for basically offshore winds all weekend as high pressure to the north and a series of fronts to the south bring the W’ly belt across the Southern half of the maritime continent. A last pulse of S-S/SE swell should hold inconsistent sets through Sat which will top out at S exposed breaks in the 2-3ft range- possibly some outliers in the 3-4ft range. W’ly winds Sat will have a W/NW to NW component at times in response to the next approaching front.

By Sun those winds will be back to straight W’ly tending W/SW later in the a’noon as the front passes into the Tasman. Small leftovers Sun with a few very inconsistent 2ft+ sets but mostly 1-2ft surf on offer with long flat spells between sets. Through the a’noon we should see  modest kick in new S swell, offering up some 2-3ft sets at S swell magnets from Sydney north. Not much elsewhere.

Next week (July 10 onwards)

Our fronts passing into the Tasman are now modelled to be much more zonal, W-E, with weaker, truncated fetches S and E of Tasmania. As a result we’re looking at a smaller payload of S swell next week. A fair bit smaller unfortunately. 

The good news: we start the week with offshore winds which should ease through the day as the front rapidly moves away and pressure gradients ease. Not much size on offer though. S swell magnets from Sydney north should see 2ft surf, building to 2-3ft during the day but most beaches will be tiny and not much is expected to make landfall on the Illawarra and South Coast.

Size eases back Tues with a few small surfable 2ft (3ft on the Hunter) options at S facing beaches as winds tend W’ly again with the passage of another front through Bass Strait. 

This next front and parent low looks stronger but again winds are still zonal and the forward speed of the system means most of the swell generated goes straight up the Tasman Sea pipe towards Fiji. 

Winds should remain W’ly through the entire week with lighter a’noon seabreezes possible from mid week. 

Fresh S swell pulses associated the passage of front and low should arrive Wed PM, and linger through the rest of next week. Wave models aren’t really interested in this swell with suggestions of only modest 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets. The strength of the fetch and possibility it could linger as it approaches the South Island does give us grounds for cautious optimism we might see some stronger sets through Thurs or Fri. 

We’ll see how models look when we come back on Mon.

Longer term and massive low system approaching from below the continent now looks to stall in Victorian longitudes and then weaken as it approaches the Tasman. We may see some refracted long period S’ly groundswell from the stalled system early in the week 16/9, otherwise it’s more small S swell into the medium/long term.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!