Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday December 11)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large SW groundswell peaking tomorrow AM, easing into the PM and further Wed
• Light N/NW winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes mid-late AM tomorrow, N/NE tending strong E/NE Wed
• Small-mod sized reinforcing SW groundswell Thu (possibly undersized early) with N/NW tending variable winds
• Small mid-period SW swell all weekend with morning offshores ahead of sea breezes
• Small W/SW swell for Tue next week with NW tending SW winds

Recap

Tiny surf on the weekend, best suited to beginners with it continuing today under light morning winds. Some new mid-period swell is due to build this afternoon but with choppy conditions.

This week and weekend (Dec 12 - 17)

Today's change and building swell is thanks to the swell generating storm linked to tomorrow's large swell passing under us, with a bit of localised energy building ahead of the long-period energy tomorrow.

On the weekend, the strong low generated a fetch of severe-gale W/NW-W winds while moving east, under the country and satellite observations picked up some storm-force barbs around the core of the low.

With this, there's no change to the expected size of the swell tomorrow with large 6ft sets due across Clifton in the morning when it peaks, easing through the day and then down further from 3ft+ on Thursday morning.

A trailing, tight low behind the major swell generating storm should generate a small reinforcing SW groundswell for Thursday that should maintain 2-3ft sets into Thursday, arriving later morning before easing Friday.

Looking at the local winds and tomorrow morning looks clean with a N/NW offshore before S/SE sea breezes kick in mid-late morning.

N/NE tending stronger E/NE winds are due Wednesday as the swell eases, with N/NW tending variable winds likely on Thursday.

A frontal system moving through Friday looks to bring poor, strong SW winds but we'll review this on Wednesday.

This front should produce small 1-2ft surf through the weekend under morning offshores, while into early next week, some similar W/SW swell is on the cards.

It'll be very west in nature but should maintain 1-2ft surf though winds look dicey Tuesday. More on this Wednesday.