South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SE groundswell Mon into Tues with mod/fresh SE winds
• Mix of swells next week- short range SE swells building across SEQLD Mon-Wed with continuing mod/fresh SE winds
• S’ly swells favouring NENSW with long period swells late Wed/Thurs
• S’ly swell pulse Sat PM, holding Sun with S’ly winds, easing Sun
• Small swells early next week
• More S swell from mid next week

Recap

Heaps of swell energy over the weekend with Sat seeing plenty of S swell in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. There was a brief window of clean condition before S’lies kicked in. Quality SE groundswell kicked in hard o/night and Sun saw a wide swathe of good/great surf mostly south of the border with 4-5ft surf (a few 6ft sets!) widely reported with smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD. Morning offshore winds supplied clean conditions for most of the morning before S’ly winds kicked in after lunch and confined clean surf to sheltered spots. Today has seen easing E/SE swell with 3-4ft sets south of the border, and some short range SE swell building to 2-3ft mostly in SEQLD under freshening SE winds.

Sets pinwheeling into the Points Sun morning

This week (Jul 24-28)

We’ve got a monster high pressure (1037 hPa) sitting on the edge of the Bight and moving slowly eastwards, maintaining a firm ridge up most of the Eastern Seaboard. A pair of coastal troughs which were expected to form a large area of low pressure off the Capricorn Coast are weakening and moving northwards through the near term. As the high moves over NSW and then NE into the Northern Tasman we’ll see the ridge breakdown and winds relax from mid week. Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into the Northern NSW Coast. Another frontal system then pushes into the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend. A typical winter week, let’s look at specifics. 

In the short run and we’ll see mod/fresh SE winds through Mon, into Tues before a possible slight easing through Wed- especially south of Yamba. Those winds will be the main factor through the short term, pretty much confining surf to protected Points apart from a few raggedy options at semi-sheltered Points and rivermouth break walls. Beachbreaks will be a blown out mess until Wed.

Surf-wise, short range SE-SSE swell joins the easing SE swells through Tues. Compared to Fridays notes this short range SE swell will be smaller due to the fetch being weaker and located further north. We’ll still see some 3-4ft surf through Tues, easing a notch into Wed. Size will diminish rapidly down the line into more sheltered inner Points and Bays.

Winds should improve for Wed as high pressure moves over NSW. SSE-SE winds should ease a notch, potentially tending to land breezes on the MNC, North Coast and Southern Gold Coast.  Coupled with those great winds will be some long period S swell generated by storm force winds as a front/low passes under Tasmania today. That fetch is better aimed at targets across the Tasman but radial spread from the source and refraction should see some energy at S facing beaches across NENSW through the a’noon. Expect some long lines in the 3ft range through the a’noon, although S facing beaches will still be too wind affected to make the most of it.

Lighter winds Thurs morning with SW-S winds through the morning tending to light  SE-NE breezes through the a’noon as the high moves into the Tasman. S swell eases back with leftover 2ft sets. 

Traces of long period S swell continue into Fri. Mostly 1-2ft with some S swell magnets hoovering up 3ft sets. Winds look fun for beachies- pre-frontal NW, tending light N’ly through the day. If you can find a S swell magnet picking up the swell there should be some small, fun waves on hand.

This weekend (July 29-30)

A cold front pushes NE into the Tasman Sat, under current modelling. Models are offering divergent outcomes for the front with EC suggesting a much weaker system, offering 2-3ft of S swell at NENSW S facing beaches while the GFS resolution is a stronger front pushing further up into the Tasman and suggesting a moderate S swell in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Winds look to be SW-S tending SSE-SE through Sat, which won’t be favourable for S facing beaches. We’ll peg a bog standard S swell for Sat, building through the day and see how its looking on Wed.

Winds should quickly improve Sun as the front exits stage left, with offshore winds and light a’noon breezes.  S swell in the 3-4ft range for NENSW S facing beaches smaller 2ft in SEQLD looks to supply small, clean surf for Sun. 

Next week (July 31 onwards)

Looks like easing swells into early next week with small S swell Mon, under light winds.

Models suggest another front, possibly tied to a compact but powerful low near Tasmania Tues/Wed which means another round of S swell (possibly sizey for NENSW) likely mid next week. We’ll dial in specifics as we go along this week.

More frontal activity looks to be behind that, suggesting this mid-winter run of waves still has some legs to it.

Check back Wed for the latest update.