South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 27th December)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: OK trade swells for most coasts, though average conditions at times. Next week: strong, sustained E'ly cyclone swell -biggest Tues/Wed - though local winds still look dicey (could be OK windows of opportunity in SE Qld though).

Recap: Small E’ly swells Thursday built to 2-3ft today, with variable surf conditions across the region - moderate S’ly thru’ E’ly winds across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with lighter, more variable winds across the Mid North Coast this morning.  

Summer lovin' at Byron Bay

Fun waves in Coffs this morning

This weekend (Dec 28  - 29)

No change to the weekend forecast. 

A slow moving high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will drift to the east over the weekend, altering the wind from day to day, but in a slightly different manner across each coast.

Saturday will see similar conditions in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW as per today, with light morning winds coming up from the east during the day. Winds should become light and variable on Sunday, ahead of afternoon sea breezes. 

The Mid North Coast will instead see light variable winds and sea breezes Saturday, whilst Sunday will freshen from the N/NE as a trough approaches from the south.

As for surf, most of the current energy is being generated from two ridges - one currently in the Northern Tasman Sea, and a now-gone ridge in the South Pacific earlier in the week. They’ll both contribute mid range E’ly swell in the 2-3ft+ range, with the upper end of this size range to be found across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. South from Ballina, wave heights will be smaller from this source. 

Also in the water will be a small, slow southerly swell from a poorly aligned front south of Tasmania on Thursday. This will only favour south facing beaches south of Byron with occasional 1-2ft sets. 

So, it’s shaping up to be a bog standard summer weekend of trade swell and average but workable conditions. 

Next week (Dec 30 onwards)

Bugger. We’ve got a whole week of northerly winds on the cards, coinciding with an otherwise quality cyclone swell out of the east.

Winds won’t be terribly strong across SE Qld and (perhaps) Far Northern NSW, but south from Ballina we’ll see gusts of up to 20kts most days. The mornings will offer windows of lighter winds, but given the extended duration of side shore conditions, don’t expect conditions to be great. 

But even though winds will be much lighter north from Byron, this direction will certainly cause problems at the regional points. And with the size and strength of the swell likely to override exposed beaches and protected northern corners, it could be difficult to find quality surf throughout this time frame. Your best option will be to aim for brief periods of lighter variable winds (more likely early mornings) and keep your expectations low. 

As for swell: there’s plenty on the way. 

TC Sansai is currently north of Fiji, inside our swell shadow, but it’s expected to push into our swell window by tomorrow.

Despite a slow track over the coming days at (likely) Cat 2 strength, the core of its lifespan fetch will be mainly aimed away from the East Coast, and up into Vanuatu. What’s in our favour is its slow forward speed and its lengthy duration within a reliable part of our swell window. This should help to generate a decent spread of E’ly swell that I’m expecting will push a little higher than model guidance is suggesting. Though it should be noted that the computer generated forecasts have slowly increased all week to be closer to my own predictions, which is very promising.

Current expectations are for a reasonable kick in size on Monday, ahead of the first pulse of strong groundswell arriving Tuesday, pulsing intermittently through Wednesday and Thursday. The consistency of the sets will initially be low but as the week progresses, the frequency should increase as the sea state become fully developed. It needs to be pointed out that instead of a the more common, defined swell trend (quickly up, then a brief plateau, then a slow but steady decline), we’re looking at a pulsey event probably holding into next weekend.

Peak surf size is expected to reach 5-6ft at exposed beaches, with smaller surf running down the various sheltered points. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if one or two swell magnets produce larger bombs at times - core winds within the cyclone are expected to be very strong (see below) so swell periods should be up around the 15-16 second mark. Late Tuesday or early Wednesday is the best chance of the upper end of this size range occurring, though it can’t be ruled for later in the week either.

It’s just a shame that local winds are going to spoil the party at many coasts. However it’s still not a complete write-off - the synoptic flow won’t be strong north of the border and there’s certainly a reasonable chance we’ll see a few windows of opportunity. I’ll be in a better position to identify which days are looking best, in Monday's update. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!