There’s still some model divergence later next week but for now we’ve got reasonable confidence a broad fetch will develop through the Northern Tasman as high pressure moves into the Tasman and supplies an anchor for the low.
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Not much short term gain from this system but there is broad model agreement we’ll see this low deepen and develop into a more powerful system mid/late next week as it drifts into a position north of the North Island.
A strong front pushed into off the NSW coast the Tasman Sea overnight, and it’s generating a strong flush of south swell that’ll fill in this evening and provide a nice boost in surf size across Southern NSW.
We’ll see some nice strong S pulses over the weekend as multiple fetches operate on an active sea state. Nothing huge but of winter calibre.
Compared to Mondays notes the outlook for S swell is improved, mostly due to a better aligned following front which conjoins the initial front and forms a slower moving low in the southern Tasman.
High pressure is well up over the centre of the continent with as weak, troughy area of low pressure moving offshore from the south coast dragging a cloud band with it and offering a W’ly flow in it’s wake. That W’ly flow looks to continue through the working week as a series of cold fronts sweep across the SE of the country.
The complex, coastal low is now dissipating and drifting towards New Zealand while high pressure drifts NE to sit over sub-tropical NSW/SEQLD tomorrow before entering the Tasman on Sunday with a broad low pushing across the interior of Victoria and NSW behind it.
A vigorous coastal low is now moving N, with a secondary low centre rotating around the primary low before forming a dual-centred system, which then slowly moves away from the NSW coast later tomorrow and through Fri.
A Coral Sea trough deepens into a small low and becomes continuous with a NSW coastal trough which deepens today and forms an ECL over the next 12-24hrs. By first light tomorrow morning and ECL or variant thereof will be positioned off the lower end of the MNC, likely due east of Seal Rocks.
Wed now looks very sizey with a full fledged low off the coast, E’ly gales feeding into it and L-XL surf developing along the NSW Central and Southern coastlines.