Since last Monday I’ve been discussing the possibility of an ‘unstable troughy pattern across the eastern Tasman Sea next week’, which could lead to a ‘sizeable’, ‘short range E’ly through NE swell’.
Our current S’ly swell will continue to ease into Thursday, but a new long period S’ly swell will push up through the morning, generated by a polar low south of Tasmania earlier this week.
Model guidance has increased projected wave heights for Tuesday and Wednesday, more inline with what my Friday notes suggested.
Next week is very tricky.
Friday looks much better on the surface though with winds swinging to the NW as a weak trough moves over the area. This should clean up the beachies nicely and provide some excellent waves to finish the working week.
For my money, Friday is the pick of the working week.
Lots of interesting swell sources next week, though we’re still looking at a stubborn ridge of high pressure in the Tasman Sea, ensuring our near swell window remains relatively quiet.
The weekend’s wind outlook has been reversed since Monday’s notes.
Our best new swell source for the coming week is Tropical Cyclone Josie, which formed south-west of Fiji over the weekend.
A series of powerful though poorly aligned Southern Ocean fronts and lows below Tasmania next week will generate small levels of southerly groundswell for Southern NSW.