Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and the cut-off low entering the Tasman this weekend or early next week.
A meandering mid-latitude low will bring tricky pulses of swell and varying winds this week.
A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and as a result the long range E/SE swell is likely to be closer to 2ft than 3ft.
It'll be windy but good across the South Coast tomorrow, smaller but fun into the rest of the week.
The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell window will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore winds.
We've got a tricky period thanks to unfavourable (for swell production) back to back meandering lows in the Bight.
Make the most of the swell spike on the weekend.
The coming period is tricky with building swells with onshore winds, cleaner away from the peaks but with no real strength in the energy.
As mentioned on Wed, we should see the extended flat spell broken next week, not in spectacular fashion, but with some small, rideable days. A trough may develop in the Coral Sea, focussing E/NE winds into it, and supplying CQ with some small rideable surf.
Winds may shift more N’ly through Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast later Thurs into Fri, bringing a spike in NE windswell.
